Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: Neo-additive capacities

We develop the simplest generalization of subjective expected utility that can accommodate both optimistic and pessimistic attitudes towards uncertainty—Choquet expected utility with non-extreme-outcome-additive (neo-additive) capacities. A neo-additive capacity can be expressed as the convex combination of a probability and a special capacity, we refer to as a Hurwicz capacity, that only distinguishes between whether an event is impossible, possible or certain. We show that neo-additive capacities can be readily applied in economic problems, and we provide an axiomatization in a framework of purely subjective uncertainty.     

Comparing three ways to update Choquet beliefs

We analyze three rules for updating neo-additive capacities. Only for Generalized Bayesian Updating is relative optimism the same for both updated and unconditional capacities. For updates of the other two, either the updated capacity is fully optimistic or fully pessimistic.     

Preference for safety under the Choquet model: in search of a characterization

Victor prefers safety more than Ursula if whenever Ursula prefers a constant to an uncertain act, so does Victor. This paradigm, whose expected utility (EU) version is Arrow and Pratt’s more risk aversion concept, will be studied in the Choquet expected utility (CEU) model. Necessary condition Pointwise inequality between a function of the utility functions and another of the capacities is necessary and sufficient for the preference by Victor of safety over a dichotomous act whenever such is the preference of Ursula. However, increased preference for safety versus dichotomous acts does not imply preference by Victor of safety over a general act whenever such is the preference of Ursula. A counterexample will be provided, via the casino theory of Dubins and Savage. Sufficient condition Separation of the two functions by some convex function is sufficient for Victor to prefer safety more than Ursula, over general acts. Furthermore, a condition on the capacities will be presented for simplicity seeking, the preference by Victor over any act for some dichotomous act that leaves Ursula indifferent. This condition is met in particular if Victor’s capacity is a convex function of Ursula’s capacity. For these cases, the pointwise inequality (necessary) condition is a characterization of greater preference for safety, extending the Arrow–Pratt notion from EU to CEU and rank-dependent utility (RDU). These inequalities preserve the flavor of the “more pessimism than greediness” characterization of monotone risk aversion by Chateauneuf, Cohen and Meilijson in the RDU model and its extension by Grant and Quiggin to CEU. Preferences between safety and dichotomous acts are at the core of the biseparable preferences model of Ghirardato and Marinacci.     

Effects of instantaneous groundwater availability on irrigated agriculture and implications for aquifer management

Groundwater is an important input for agricultural production in many parts of the world. Aquifer depletion has been shown to affect the rate that groundwater can be extracted from an aquifer. In this paper, we develop an analytical framework that accounts explicitly for the effects of limited instantaneous groundwater extraction rate (well capacity) on a producer's irrigation decisions. We show that limited well capacities can affect the producer’s groundwater use and profit. We draw three important insights from these findings. First, we demonstrate that the price elasticity of demand for groundwater is higher for lower well capacities. Second, farmers’ irrigation decisions are non-monotonic with respect to well capacity and climate conditions. Under a drier climate, producers with greater well capacities increase their groundwater use, and producers with lower well capacities reduce their water use. Third, through numerical analysis, we show that considering spatial heterogeneity in well capacities is important for estimating the cost-effectiveness and distributional impacts of groundwater management policies. Our results shed new light on the importance of extraction capacity for groundwater management policies and the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural production.     

Technology flows between sectors and their impact on large-scale firms

In this article we highlight the importance of technology flows between sectors and their impact on the labour productivity of large-scale corporations. Based on theoretical considerations, we explore technological spillovers between the sectors of an economy. Large-scale corporations usually focus on certain sectors but make use of a wide range of technological knowledge from other sectors. Thereby, technological knowledge built up in sectors by continuous R&D activities does not spill over without bounds but is directed by firms’ absorptive capacities. We use firms’ patent portfolio to empirically calculate the sector affiliation and therewith the firms’ absorptive capacities in order to estimate the impact of technology diffusion on labour productivity. Fortune 500 firms serve as data base.     

Brussels is Speaking: The Adverse Speech Geo-Politics of the European Union Towards its Neighbours

The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) was presented as the EU's strategic response in order to deal with the new situation following the enlargement of the European Union in 2004. According to the EU, these changing circumstances have led to new rationales: 1) coping with its new external borders and neighbours and 2), finding a solution for a further enlargement problem. Both rationales are drawn out of strategic interest avoiding potentially damaging consequences on stability and development. Moreover, new inducements for multilevel cooperation were seen as necessary in order to ‘include’ the neighbouring states and create a prosperous and stable ‘Ring of friends’. The ENP has the objective to contribute to internal transformation and to further the process of ‘Europeanisation’. Europeanisation is explained by the EU as a normative process of sharing European values made concrete through policies of conditionality and socialisation of neighbouring states. This process of expanding ‘Europeanisation’ beyond the EU borders is inspired by an ambiguous and conflicting geopolitics that the EU applies as a strategic instrument. Most notably, this is emphasised by the fact that the ENP on the one hand creates an image of an inferior neighbour that urgently needs to move towards European standards and on the other hand produces a speech politics of mutuality and dialogue.

Through the study of EU speeches, communications and documents, we will argue that the rationales behind the ENP suggest a closure of the European Union and allow for neo-colonial interpretations by which pre-defined policies are to be accepted and pre-defined European values are seen as superior to neighbouring local values. This development is both undesirable and harmful. Europe is increasingly re-created as a bounded political entity institutionalised through hierarchical treaties and acts with friends, special friends, and reluctant, unwilling neighbours. In doing so, the EU faces a significant chance of alienating its neighbours and damaging cultures and societies by asymmetrical imperial power-policies based on self-created values. Paradoxically then, ENP that was set up to create good neighbours, risks producing what it wishes to protect from, angry neighbours.     

The Socio-scientific Construction of Global Climate Crisis

This article adapts and applies a securitisation framework to produce an analytical explanation for the heightened geopolitical status of climate change over the past decade, as demonstrated by the breakthrough Paris Agreement of 2015. Rather than speech acts invoking security, the focus of this analysis is on the socio-scientific discourse of global climate crisis that emerged in the several year period leading to the 2009 COP 15 conference in Copenhagen. Two types of experts—contributory and interactional—are identified as the essential and interdependent actors that engaged in ‘crisification’, a novel crisis-based perspective on political agenda setting, in which climate crisis served as a primary discursive device employed by prominent advocates of urgent action. Contributory experts, that is, authoritative climate scientists and their institutions, together with interactional experts—non-scientist social actors who appropriated and mediated scientific data and knowledge in framing climate change as a global crisis—constituted an extended epistemic community of climate advocates. Through an array of speech acts, this extended community effectively co-constructed a convincing climate crisis discourse that consisted of quantitative data artefacts based on CO₂ concentration and global mean temperature, and qualitative invocations of existential threat to human civilisation, which contributed to the ascent of climate change on the global political agenda. In proposing crisification as a complement to securitisation, the article offers a theoretical innovation that facilitates constructivist analysis of issues framed as crises, including geopolitical problems in certain non-military sectors where crisis is a favoured label for perceived threats to core values.     

Strategic Ignorance as a Self-Disciplining Device

We analyse the decision of an agent with time-inconsistent preferences to consume a good that exerts an externality on future welfare. The extent of the externality is initially unknown, but may be learned via a costless sampling procedure. We show that when the agent cannot commit to future consumption and learning decisions, incomplete learning may occur on a Markov perfect equilibrium path of the resulting intra-personal game. In such a case, each agent's incarnation stops learning for some values of the posterior distribution of beliefs and acts under self-restricted information. This conduct is interpreted as strategic ignorance. All equilibria featuring this property strictly Pareto dominate the complete learning equilibrium for any posterior distribution of beliefs.     

‘Humour is Serious’ as a Geopolitical Speech Act: IMDb Film Reviews of Sacha Baron Cohen's The Dictator

Humour is a manifold cultural institution through which society and space become politicised. In this paper, the political nature of humour is discussed by dissecting the IMDb film reviews of Sacha Baron Cohen's comedy, The Dictator (2012), a parody of democracy in which the topics of racism, political incorrectness and sexism, as well as their relationship to the discourses of Neo-Orientalism and the Global War on Terrorism, are present. The reviews are perceived as speech acts, which establish broader interpretative patterns through which audience may approach the questions related to the serious and political aspects of humour. The analysis focuses on how the ‘humour is serious’ claim and similar arguments are expressed in order to condemn or support the use of ‘immature’ and sophomoric humour within the context of politically sensitive issues. Similarly, the paper scrutinises how IMDb functions as a stage on which opportunity for political participation becomes accessible.     

A new integral for capacities

A new integral for capacities is introduced and characterized. It differs from the Choquet integral on non-convex capacities. The main feature of the new integral is concavity, which might be interpreted as uncertainty aversion. The integral is extended to fuzzy capacities, which assign subjective expected values to random variables (e.g., portfolios) and may assign subjective probability only to a partial set of events. An equivalence between the minimum over sets of additive capacities (not necessarily probability distributions) and the integral w.r.t. fuzzy capacities is demonstrated. The extension to fuzzy capacities enables one to calculate the integral also in cases where the information available is limited to a few events. I wish to thank Eran Hanany, David Schmeidler, Eilon Solan and especially Yaron Azrieli and the anonymous referee of Economic Theory for their helpful comments.     

The cul-de-sac of foreign industrial investments to Russia

Abstract

The aim of this article is to determine the rationale for the ‘irrational’ investment behaviour of multinational corporations (MNCs) in Russia. During the on-going recession in a number of major sectors, MNCs have undertaken only a very limited number of divestments and, instead, have commissioned a record number of new manufacturing facilities (by opening new plants and expanding the capacities of existing plants). To explain this phenomenon, we first provide an overview of existing theoretical and empirical studies on investments in difficult locations and divestments of foreign subsidiaries, and identify the major weaknesses of the prevailing approaches and underlying assumptions of such studies. Next, we present a detailed picture of both industrial investments and divestments in Russia from January 2015 to March 2017. Finally, we indicate how a combination of systemic and contingent factors (pressure from the host country’s government, subsidiaries’ orientation towards the host country’s markets, and the absence of potential local and international acquirers for existing Russian manufacturing facilities of Western MNCs) has created ‘cul-de-sac’ conditions for foreign-owned industrial assets in Russia.     

Complementarities between organisational strategies and innovation

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether organizational strategies in various manufacturing industries are complementary with innovation. In particular, our interest is to discover which organizational strategies are complementary with major innovations (world-first and Canada-first). Knowledge of complementarity should pave the way for creating sustainable competitive advantage because the use of a complex strategy may be difficult to imitate. In other words, competitive advantage increases as the complexity of the strategy increases (i.e. because the number of strategy combinations follows a power law), which acts as a barrier to potential imitators (Rivkin, J.W. (2000) Imitation of Complex Strategies. Management Science, 46(6), 824–844.).

Because of the static nature of our results (productivity and profit are for 1997), their interpretation can only be tentative. Thus, our research is really a first step along the road to understanding the (potential) importance of complementarities among firm strategies. Caveats aside, managers may want to compare their own firm’s emphasis on particular strategies against what is empirically determined to be complementary with innovation and high-performance within their industry. The frequency of complementary pairs that involve innovation range from 40 to 50% depending on whether we are talking about profit, productivity, or strategies. This result is important—as it means that innovation outcomes are statistically significant for both increased productivity and increased profit. Furthermore, innovation was found to be complementary with many organizational strategies. The complementary strategies across industries were quite different, but this was expected to occur.     

‘We All Have a Responsibility to Each Other’: Valuing Racialised Bodies in the Neoliberal Bioeconomy

ABSTRACT

In neoliberalism, human tissue has been targeted as a source for extracting surplus value. Commercial attention on ethnic and racial minorities has resulted in products and services specifically developed for them. Here, we focus on this by exploring two empirical examples: US pharmaceutical clinical trials and UK stem cell transplantation. Both use racial taxonomies to discern biological difference and draw conclusions about the economic potential of people’s genetic constitutions. They do so by appealing to racialised minorities’ sense of responsibility towards ‘their’ communities, both buttressing the conflation of social and biological registers of human variation and demonstrating neoliberalism’s mobilisation of discourses of community. However, while the inclusion of racialised minorities is hoped to bring economic benefits, it also aims to address healthcare inequalities. Drawing on Science and Technology Studies, we argue that in our examples, economic, social and cultural values cannot be disentangled. This compels us to complement narratives of the commodification of racialised difference in neoliberal (consumer) culture, and focus on the intersections between different economic and ethical values. Ultimately we find that whilst work is being done to ameliorate racial inequities, broader socio-economic and political inequalities minority communities face go unaddressed, likely precluding the realisation of health equality.     

India’s Economic and Strategic Perceptions of China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative

The Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI) is a part of China’s experiment in scaling up economic corridors across vast swathes of diverse economic geographies. China’s involvement in a large number of ongoing transport corridor projects has encouraged it to embark on the most ambitious of them all till date. The heterogeneity among the economic capacities and integrations of various regions constituting the MSRI, particularly in efficiency of infrastructure and ability to trade, is noticeable. This article underscores these variations as important determinants of competitiveness of the constituent regions and countries. India’s perceptions of the MSRI are significantly shaped by its lack of quality maritime infrastructure capacities that make it relatively uncompetitive vis-à-vis China, Europe and most of Southeast Asia; and the impression of the MSRI’s “China-centrality” emanating from lack of mention of non-China regional forums in the Chinese government’s vision statement; and absence of proactive measures from the Chinese leadership in establishing the MSRI’s multi-country character. The article argues that it is important for India to appreciate the geopolitical character of this unprecedented infrastructure initiative, which, while emphasizing Chinese interests, might not be inimical to India’s economic ambitions, provided India is able to address its domestic infrastructure imperatives.     

Battle royal in biotechnology: R&D vs. product vs. process innovations

Companies regard innovation as a central element of their business. However, as not all innovation types are the same, the central question is: should their announcements bring about the same effect on performance? This article analyses potential differences in firm value derived from the innovation-type announcements ‘R&;D’, ‘product’, and ‘process’, made by intensive news-generating firms such as biotech companies. The empirical application shows a significantly positive reaction to innovation announcements, with the prospect of future innovation (‘R&;D’ investment announcements) having greater impact on firm value than ‘product’ and ‘process’ innovations. Firm experience also acts as a moderator in this innovation–performance relationship, which is particularly relevant for entrepreneurs who need to develop and send credible signals indicating the value of the firm's intangible assets to the market.     

Conditional utility

Summary The motivation for this paper starts out with a decision situation under risk where the decision-maker has to choose among various lottery tickets. We will ask what happens to a person's lottery choice if he is given additional information in terms of probabilities on some states of nature which might affect his choice among lottery tickets. In other words, in evaluating his decision situation, a person should not only consider the probability of a certain prospect to be realized but also the problem how and to which extent some state(s) of nature modify the utility of this prospect. This problem has not been dealt with in Bernoullian utility theory.We state several conditions which are necessary and sufficient to treat conditional utility as Bernoullian utility. Then we show as a main result that it is possible to represent expected utility of decision acts (in Savage's terminology) by conditional expected utility of prospects which preserves well-known properties of expected utility with the exception of linearity.We give a potential application of the notion of conditional utility to the estimation of the value of information as a residual value of prior and posterior utility.     

The Facts and the Values of the Lucas Critique

In his influential 1976 paper, ‘Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique,’ Robert E. Lucas, Jr. presented the policy non-invariance argument, also known as the Lucas critique (LC). Drawing on the work of Putnam and Walsh, this paper discusses how the LC, like all works of scientific inquiry, contains values entangled with scientific facts, and argues that the Lucas critique devalued and revalued the highest values in macroeconomic science, a process known as ‘transvaluation.’ Most importantly, the LC worked to operationalize a shift in values that undermined belief in economists’ ability and responsibility to make meaningful interventions in the economy. Employing the language and concepts of continental philosophy, this paper discusses the meaning and effect of the LC on the values embedded in contemporary macroeconomic science.     

The Autoimmunity of the EU’s Deadly B/ordering Regime; Overcoming its Paradoxical Paper,Iron and Camp Borders

ABSTRACT

In this article we argue that the EU suffers from autoimmunity: a self-harming protection strategy. Drawing on Derrida’s political understanding of autoimmunity, we contend that the root of this malfunction lies in the EU’s own b/ordering and othering policies, which are intended to immunise the foundational ethos of the EU. For this purpose, we dissect the EU border regime into three linked b/ordering mechanisms: the pre-borders of paper documents that regulate from afar the mobility of the people from visa-obliged countries; the actual land borders often consisting of iron gates and fences regulating mobility on the spot; and the post-border in the form of waiting/detention camps that segregate and enclose the undocumented migrants after entry. We make clear how this discriminatory b/ordering and othering regime has led to a recurrent drawing of ever less porous, inhumane and deadlier borders. Such thanatopolitics finds itself at odds with the humanist values that the EU is supposed to uphold, particularly cross-border solidarity, openness, non-discrimination and human rights. We argue that the EU b/ordering regime has turned fear of the non-EUropean into an increasingly unquestioned – even ‘commonsensical’ – anxiety that has become politically profitable to exploit by extreme nationalistic and EUrosceptic parties. The core of the EU’s autoimmunity that we want to expose lies within this irony: in its attempt to protect what it considers meaningful, the EU has unleashed an autoimmune disorder that has turned the EU into its own most formidable threat.     

Impact of FDI and trade on environmental quality in the CAFTA-DR region

This study investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), trade and industrial emissions in member countries of the Central American Free Trade Agreement–Dominican Republic (CAFTA-DR) between 1979 and 2010. Our model is based on extant literature about the Environmental Kuznets’ Curve framework. In this study, we consider sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) as our dependent variables. Our key independent variables are FDI and trade. Our study finds evidence that foreign investment and trade have had a negative impact on our selected emissions. However, our models also estimate turning points which are below the current GDP per capita values for all CAFTA-DR member countries. This is an encouraging trend in terms of the potential reduction in emissions in the region.     

Schrödinger's notebook: Shifting real

The science fiction prototype featured in this article is the second chapter of a novel in progress that contains an omnibus of interventions into physics, queer science, feminism, and intellectual history. The title of the article references the notebooks of Erwin Schrödinger, a Nobel-Prize winning physicist who discovered wave theory that superseded Heisenberg's more complex form of mathematical formalism, therefore changing the way in which interpretation is done. Despite being part of a series, the prototype is written so it could be read as a standalone. The story, combined with a critical explication of its background and intent, produces the contestations illustrating the relationships between physics, the cultures in science and technology, as well as politics extending over the internal and external values of the scientific enterprise. Specifically, the differences between these values are rendered impossible through the epistemic continuity stemming from a shared ontology. At the same time, the prototype also forecasts the possibility of future technologies based on current and possible developments in physics while contesting the notion of a ‘good life’ these technologies supposedly offer. As a politically inclined epistemic move, the prototype will demonstrate points of amplification in the interactions taking place at the microscopic level for manifestation in our macroscopic space. Therefore, the amplified microscopic interactions are in competition with the observables in our ‘meatspace’ dominated by the conventions of classical physics. The prototype also acts as a speculative device for modeling probable outcomes stemming from different constraint sets, thereby acting as an ‘algorithmic’ blueprint for the narration of scenarios produced as an outcome of macro- and micro-entanglement.