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1.
Variety,growth and demand 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Pier Paolo Saviotti 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2001,11(1):119-142
A dynamic model of demand compatible with a changing composition of the economic system is presented in this paper. Consumers
are not expected to have completely formed preferences for radically new objects of consumption. Consumers adopt new goods
or services ,created by innovation, only if three barriers are overcome: 1) a critical (minimum) level of income, 2) critical
human capital, 3) critical fitness. However, even a new good or service with a fitness higher than that of pre-existing ones,
will not be immediately adopted. Consumers'.limited knowledge will slow down the rate of adoption of any new good or service. 相似文献
2.
Should government subsidize R&D and does it matter how these subsidies are allocated? We examine these questions in a dynamic
model where R&D is described as sequential sampling from a distribution of new ideas. Successful discoveries affect future
available resources and incentives for further R&D. Consequently, there may be under-investment in R&D. We study the effect
of government interventions aimed at fostering growth through R&D. Calibrating the model with aggregate data from the Israeli
business sector allows us to quantitatively compare two forms of support resembling those actually used to encourage R&D in
the Israeli business sector: (i) an unrestricted subsidy that may be used at the recipients' discretion to finance R&D or
other investments, (ii) a subsidy earmarked by the government for R&D activities only. While there is no theoretical way to
determine which of the two subsidies will have a greater impact on search for new ideas and growth, we find that in the calibrated
economy both subsidies have a significant but similar impact on the economy's output and TFP growth rates. Accordingly, in
the case of the Israeli business sector, the incentives to conduct R&D were sufficiently strong, and no R&D-specific encouragement
was needed. However, a sensitivity analysis reveals that for economies characterized by other parameter values this result
may not be true.
Correspondence to: B. Bental 相似文献
3.
Barriers to knowledge spillovers and regional convergence in an evolutionary model 总被引:21,自引:0,他引:21
This paper will present a multi-region/multi-country model in which inter-regional knowledge spillovers determine the growth
of regions. Key parameters in the model are the learning capability of a region and the rate of knowledge generation (R&D).
The intensity of spillovers depends on geographical distance between regions. The model is investigated by means of simulation
techniques. What results is a core-periphery situation, the exact form of which depends on the assumed spatial structure.
The impact of economic integration is investigated by introducing barriers-to-knowledge-spillovers in the model in the form
of borders between countries. Contrary to the popular belief and some economic theories, we find that removing such spillover
barriers may result in larger disparity of income levels between regions. 相似文献
4.
M. Fuat Şener 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(5):557-583
This paper constructs a general equilibrium model of equilibrium unemployment by combining an endogenous growth model with
a variant of equilibrium search theory. The analysis offers two explanations for the causes of widening wage gap between skilled
and less-skilled labor, and rising unemployment rate among the less skilled: technological change in the form of an increase
in the size of innovations or skilled labor saving technological change in R&D activity.
In addition, the model identifies two distinct effects of faster technological progress on the aggregate unemployment rate.
First, it increases the rate of labor turnover and therefore increases the aggregate unemployment rate – the creative destruction
effect. Second, it creates R&D jobs, which offer workers complete job security, and consequently reduces the aggregate unemployment
rate – the resource reallocation effect. 相似文献
5.
Evidence of falling wages in Catholic cities and rising wages in Protestant cities between 1500 and 1750, during the spread
of literacy in the vernacular, is inconsistent with most theoretical models of economic growth. In The Protestant Ethic, Weber suggested an alternative explanation based on culture. Here, a theoretical model confirms that a small change in the
subjective cost of cooperating with strangers can generate a profound transformation in trading networks. In explaining urban
growth in early-modern Europe, specifications compatible with human-capital versions of the neoclassical model and endogenous-growth
theory are rejected in favor of a “small-world” formulation based on the Weber thesis. 相似文献
6.
Derek Bosworth Silvia Massini Masako Nakayama 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2002,12(1-2):135-162
This paper explores the use of time series data to isolate quality change in the Japanese economy using a hedonic procedure.
We argue that the traditional approach to hedonic estimation based upon panel data sets of different brands in a given product
area is extremely resource intensive and, thus, unlikely to be adopted by official statistical bodies outside of key areas,
such as computers. This paper adopts a “top-down” approach to see whether more traditional measures of technical change, such
as patents, can be used to separate pure inflation from quality change. If this is possible, it offers a much simpler route
to estimate the role of quality change in economic growth and performance. In practice, we extend the analysis not only to
include patents, but other forms of intellectual property that might reflect technology and attribute changes, such as designs,
utility models and trademarks. We begin by taking a longer-term historical perspective, exploring the development of indigenous
inventive capacity in Japan during the early years when R&D data are not available. It is possible to show that the rise in
utility models pre-dates the main growth in patenting activity, suggesting the development in more low-level indigenous creative
work prior to higher level inventive activity. The principal aim of this paper, however, is to demonstrate that it is possible
to develop robust models to explain changes in the producer price index in Japan, which can then be used to re-examine Japanese
growth performance over the period from about 1960. If the official Japanese statistical body has fully accounted for quality
change in the price indices (i.e. produced fully quality-constant price deflators), then the official estimates of growth
will be correct. However, we provide strong evidence that this is not the case. Changes in quality, proxied by the IP variables,
are important determinants of prices in Japan over the period 1960 to 1995 as a whole. Indeed, we provide evidence that the
true rate of growth of the Japanese economy, taking into account the rate of quality change, is significantly higher than
that suggested in official statistics. 相似文献
7.
Peter Bernholz 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(1-2):3-16
Starting from a discussion of Schumpeter's analysis of the relationships of capitalism, socialism and democracy, it is shown
that, in a complex society, democracy is only compatible with a decentralized market economy with safe property rights. But
in time democracy shows a tendency to weaken the capitalist system by more and more regulations and an ever-increasing share
of government (including the social security system) in GDP. This tendency is a consequence of political competition because
of the development of interest groups and the presence of rationally uninformed voters. It leads to a weakening of efficiency,
investment, innovation and thus to lower growth rates of GDP. But in time forces opposing this development arise. First, because
of the negative consequences of growing government the welfare and regulatory state is bound to move into a crisis in the
long run. Thus innovative politicians have a chance to win the support of a majority of voters for reform projects, who perceive
finally the ever-increasing burden of higher taxes and regulations and realize that these burdens are not worth the benefits
bestowed on them. In doing so, they may face, however, the competition of ideologies. Second, there are other states with
lower taxes and less unnecessary regulations which show higher growth rates of GDP, and gain thus relative advantages in international
political and military competition since they can command greater resources with the passage of time. To maintain their relative
international power position, reforms are thus considered as necessary by rulers. This may be helped by pressure resulting
from comparisons of the standards of living done by their citizens. 相似文献
8.
Knowledge, consumption, and endogenous growth 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Richard N. Langlois 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2001,11(1):77-93
In neoclassical theory, knowledge generates increasing returns – and therefore growth – because it is a public good that
can be costlessly reused once created. In fact, however, much knowledge in the economy is actually tacit and not easily transmitted
–and thus not an obvious source of increasing returns. Several writers have responded to this alarming circumstances by affirming
hopefully that knowledge today is increasingly codified, general, and abstract – and increasingly less tacit. This paper disputes
such a trend. But all is not lost: for knowledge does not have to be codified to be reused and therefore to generate economic
growth. 相似文献
9.
In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance
with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information
with each other. Such a model yields multiple equilibria, or attracting distributions, that are persistent but subject to
sudden large jumps. Using German Federal Statistical Office economic indicators and German IFO Poll expectational data, we
show that this kind of model performs well in simulation experiments. Focusing upon producers' expectations in the consumption
goods sector, we also discover evidence that structural change in the interactive process occurred over the period of investigation
(1970–1998). Specifically, interactions in expectation formation seem to have become less important over time.
RID="*"
ID="*"We would like to thank Ulrich Witt, Director of the Evolutionary Economics Unit, The Max Planck Institute for Research
into Economic Systems, Jena, Germany, for providing the intellectual stimulus for this project and arranging the necessary
financial support from the Max Planck Society to facilitate our collaboration. Thanks are also due to the IFO Institute for
providing the data for this study. However, the usual caveat applies. 相似文献
10.
Innovative profits (of the kind conceptualized by Schumpeter) are today being increasingly created through international
corporate networks for technological development. Such profits through innovation are encouraged by newer more flexible organizational
forms, and further encouraged (unlike in the conventional perspective on profits and on the incentive to innovate) by knowledge
flows between firms. Our empirical evidence, based on US patent data, shows that multinational companies are currently more
likely to develop abroad technologies which are less science-based, and less dependent upon tacit knowledge. However, within
the science-based industries firms may generate abroad some technologies which are heavily dependent on tacit knowledge, but
normally in fields that lie outside their own core technological competencies. We find some evidence of a convergence in corporate
technological diversification across large firms, facilitated by the now common spread in the use of information and communication
technologies (ICT) as an integrator of formerly separate technological systems. This has led smaller firms to diversify, but
giant firms to consolidate activity around those technologies that have become most interrelated. 相似文献
11.
Sung Jin Kang 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2002,12(4):425-441
Controlling for capital accumulation from per capita income growth, this paper shows robust scale effects on total factor
productivity growth. The estimated speeds of technology catching up are around 2 percent per year. In addition, the empirical
analysis confirms the catching up theory, in which the initial relative backwardness and policy variables conducive to technology
adoption are statistically significant.
RID="*"
ID="*" This is a revised part of Ph.D. thesis at Stanford University. I would like to thank the committee members, Charles
I. Jones, Anne O. Krueger, and Paul Romer as well as Ronald Findlay, Ronald I. Mckinnon, Yasuyuki Sawada, Robert Sinclair,
a referee and seminar participants at Stanford University, the Pacific Rim Allied Economic Organizations Conference, the East
Asian Economic Association Conference, and the 8th World Congress. 相似文献
12.
Ben Cooper 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(4):395-413
One way of thinking about research and development is to recognise that firms are trying to solve particular design problems. We often build these design problems into our models, but are forced to oversimplify them in order to make the models solvable.
The approach taken in this paper is to acknowledge that design problems are often insoluble using standard techniques and
to model instead the process by which firms solve them. Two such processes are simulated in detail. The first, individual experimental search, is based
on a problem-solving technique known as simulated annealing. The second, partial imitation, involves learning at a social level and is based on a problem-solving technique known as
the genetic algorithm. Some economic implications of these processes are explored, including their application to stochastic learning curves, patent
design and the importance of `technodiversity' in the introduction of new technology to developing countries. 相似文献
13.
Pontus Braunerhjelm Bo Carlsson Dilek Cetindamar Dan Johansson 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(5):471-488
This paper examines the rapid growth of the polymer-based and biomedical clusters in Ohio and Sweden – two regions of similar
size and with similar traditions undergoing similar industrial restructuring.
Two issues are addressed: First, why has growth been so strong in these particular clusters, i.e., can we identify the sources
of the growth and dynamics in these sectors? Second, why do these two clusters differ in Ohio and Sweden in terms of size,
level and type of activity, number and composition of actors, size structure of firms and growth patterns over the last couple
of decades? In particular, what is the role of public policies as well as cultural, historical, and geographic factors?
Our main conclusions are (1) that there is strong path dependence in both clusters in both countries, and (2) that the key
to rapid development is a high absorptive capacity combined with rapid diffusion to new potential users. Our policy discussion
addresses these issues. 相似文献
14.
Amartya Lahiri 《Economic Theory》2001,17(1):197-208
Summary. The paper presents a human capital driven endogenous growth model which, in general, permits a multiplicity of equilibrium
balanced growth paths. It is shown that allowing for perfect capital mobility across countries increases the range of parameter values for which the model permits equilibrium indeterminacy. As opposed to the closed capital markets
case, simple restrictions on preferences are no longer sufficient to eliminate the indeterminacy. Intuitively, under perfect
capital mobility agents are able to smooth consumption completely. This induces an economy with open capital markets to behave
like a closed economy with linear preferences thereby increasing the possibility of equilibrium indeterminacy.
Received: 18 November 1998; revised version: 10 August 1999 相似文献
15.
Esben Sloth Andersen 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2001,11(1):143-164
This paper presents the problem of satiation of consumption and technology in relation to a model of evolutionary endogenous
growth. The model represents an attempt to provide an evolutionary economic micro foundation to Pasinetti's scheme of the
structural economic dynamics of an economy that is based on only labour and knowledge. The micro foundation is based on a
set of rules that makes endogenous the demand coefficients, the labour coefficients, and the number of available sectors.
Through process innovations firms increase their productivities with respect to individual goods, but a growth slowdown takes
place unless the benefits from specialisation are exploited at still higher levels. Another cause for slowdown is related
to an Engelian hierarchy of goods. As the standard of living grows, existing sectors and consumption goods satiate, so new
sectors need to be provided by product innovations in a sufficient pace to keep up with the labour that is displaced from
old sectors. 相似文献
16.
Birgitte Andersen 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》1999,9(4):487-526
Since the works by the business cycle theorists in the 1930s, no attempts have been made to study empirically the long term
evolution paths of individual technologies starting with long time series. This is an empirical exploration and confirmation
of the now almost assumed image or metaphor of the way technology develops; that it follows an S-shaped growth path which is commonly associated with a similar shaped diffusion function of entrepreneurial activity. The
paper also confirms the diversity of technology dynamics and explores how technological cycle takeoffs appear to be clustered
within certain historical epochs. The results have implications for our understanding of the evolution paths of individual
technologies, and of the evolution of technological systems and waves of innovation.
By use of computational statistics, logistic growth functions are fitted to US patent stocks, 1920–1990, at a detailed level
of aggregation, including chemical, electrical/electronic, mechanical, transport and non-industrial technologies. Some practical
considerations when developing an empirically testable model of innovation cycles are addressed in the paper as well. 相似文献
17.
An evolutionary model of the size distribution of firms 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Fariba Hashemi 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(5):507-521
An analytical study of the evolution of the distribution of firm size in an industry is presented. A drift-diffusion model
is proposed to express the time-evolution of density of firm size within the industry. The model blends the conventional,
more or less static, determinants with the kinds of dynamic considerations introduced by stochastic processes of evolutionary
dynamics. The steady-state distribution as well as the dynamic behavior of the model are derived. Parameters in the resulting
analytical expressions are then fit to a population of firms in the non-manufacturing service sector. The empirical portion
of the paper validates the proposed evolutionary model. 相似文献
18.
Since the late 1970s, pharmaceutical R&D has grown at a rapid rate relative to sales and other variables. In this paper,
we examine the determinants of pharmaceutical R&D using a pooled data sample of 11 major drug firms over the period 1974 to
1994. We find that expected returns and cash flows are important explanatory variables of firm research intensities during
this period. This is consistent with our results for an earlier sample period characterized by very different growth patterns
on R&D. 相似文献
19.
Majid Taghavi 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2000,10(1-2):159-173
This paper attempts to empirically test the hypothesis that whether debt matters in the EU. This has been performed by examining
the potential adverse effects of debt in large European economies on investment, inflation and growth. Using the hybrid cointegration
and vector autoregressive models, the findings, based on the period 1970–97, suggest that debt causes significant adverse
effects on investment, but its impact on growth is not clear-cut. Moreover, debt appears to be inflationary in most cases
in the long run, though produces no clear short run pattern on inflation. 相似文献
20.
J.S. Metcalfe 《Journal of Evolutionary Economics》2002,12(1-2):3-15
The central theme of this address is the complicated relationship between the growth of the economy and the growth of knowledge.
This theme is explored with the help of a single concept “restless capitalism” which is used to capture the idea that capitalism
in equilibrium is a contradiction in terms precisely because the growth of knowledge cannot be meaningfully formulated as
the outcome of a constellation of equilibrating forces. This theme is explored through a discussion of growth accounting,
the relationship between innovation, markets and institutions and, as an example, the development of innovation in the field
of ophthalmology. We also discuss some pioneering contributions made by Simon Kuznets and Arthur Burns to the discussion of
evolutionary growth. From this Schumpeterian perspective we see the economy as an ensemble not an aggregate entity and so
see more clearly the importance of microdiversity in the relationship between growth of knowledge and growth of the economy. 相似文献