外来移民对城市房价的影响：一种基于本地居民流动性的分解

本文采用一种新的分解方法,将外来移民对城市房价的总效应分解为外来移民的直接需求效应和通过影响本地居民流动性从而影响城市房价的引致需求效应,并估计了这两种效应在解释城市房价上涨中所占的比例。运用2015年1%人口抽样调查微观数据以及中国房地产指数系统的百城住房价格数据,实证结果表明,外来移民占比增加1%,城市房价上涨0.59%,其中,移民的直接需求效应可以解释总效应的73.9%,剩余26.1%由外来移民的引致需求效应解释。本文结果意味着,外来移民不仅会通过直接的需求效应推动城市房价上涨,而且还会通过影响本地居民的流动性从而间接影响城市住房价格,忽略这一引致需求效应将会低估外来移民对城市房价的影响。     

多元文化法律理念刍议

二战之后,西方各民族国家中产生了大量外来移民群体。这些外来移民群体和其他少数族裔群体不断从内部向西方各民族国家提出权利要求。这使西方各民族国家不得不放弃＂单一民族＂的民族国家建构模式以及同化政策,转而采取更为宽容的多元文化主义政策,以满足各族裔群体的权利要求。此举引起了很多人对民族国家会走向衰微和终结的担心。但事实上,民族国家并没有走向终结。其原因在于,多元文化主义政策本身就是民族国家在全球化的背景下进行重新建构的方式。它在一定程度上满足了少数群体的权利要求,促进了多元文化国家内部的整合,使得民族国家的建构更为深入。     

新的“人口炸弹”

联合国前不久公布了全球人口生育率下降的消息，许多人结此弹冠相庆，因为在些之前，人们听到了太多与人口增长有关的危机——人口危机、粮食危机、生态危机、安全危机等等。     

论西北的环境与移民

近年来,不少人以地广人稀、开发需要和人口的合理布局为由,主张移民西北。有的学者认为,地广人稀的大西北应是我国未来人口流向的立足点。有的学者提出,仅新疆、青海、甘肃和宁夏四省、区即可接受1亿左右的移民。笔者拟通过对西北环境的评价,就移民西北问题谈点浅见。     

宏阔的视野,独到的见解——读陈孔立《清代台湾移民社会研究》

陈孔立教授的新作《清代台湾移民社会研究》列为“南强丛书”第一批书目,已由厦门大学出版社出版,并荣获1991年光明杯优秀哲学社会科学著作三等奖。笔者获作者贻书一部,乃得先读为快。本书分总论、人口与人口结构、农民起义以及游民暴动与械斗四个部分,凡23万言。从各个不同侧面,对清代台湾移民社会的历史作了深入的考察,具有视野宏阔,见解独到的特点,学术价值甚高。 本书第一篇“总论”部分是全书的主轴,它首先从移民社会的特点、移民社会发展的模式以及台湾历史的特殊性等方面,对清代台湾移民社会史的一些重大理论问题进行了深入的探讨。关于清代台湾移民社     

面向城市低收入移民的住房股权计划

所谓城市低收入移民,是指由农村进入城市并已长期经常性在城市工作和居住并有定居意愿,但户籍并未转入城市的低收入人口.对于希望在城市定居的低收入移民来说,解决其住房问题和一般外来务工人员有较大区别.针对这部分群体的住房需求,本文提出了基于资产社会政策的住房股权计划,设计了住房股权计划的激励机制和退出机制.     

拉文斯坦移民法则与我国人口的梯级迁移

本文重新解读了拉文斯坦移民法则,在对我国移民历史进行追溯的基础上,认为人口迁移的非经济理性因素占据我国移民历史的主要部分,从人口流动及迁移现象与移民法则的差异出发,解释了农民工收入回流和房地产涨升的相关原因,总结出我国人口梯级迁移的特点,并提出了人口迁移宏观操作的建议.     

基于有序Logit模型的农村 人口自愿转移意愿研究——三峡生态屏障区的实证分析

研究人口自愿性转移的意愿及影响因素,有利于转移政策的制定与完善,实现人口转移目标。本文基于对三峡生态屏障区农村人口转移的实地调查,运用有序Logit模型,从家庭基本情况、家庭资本、家庭社会保障水平、对以往移民政策的了解程度和其他社会因素等五个方面对其转移意愿进行了分析,研究表明：年龄、家庭参加医疗保险人数、对三峡移民政策了解程度、是否为原三峡移民和现有居住环境及对环境满意度等因素对农村人口的转移意愿有显著性影响。     

“闯关东”移民潮简析

“闯关东”是中国近代向东北移民的略称，出现在清代，20世纪后形成了移民高潮，其数量之多，规模之大，被当时人们认为“可以算得是人类有史以来最大的人口移动之一”①“闯关东”的由来及其规模清代以前，包括辽宁、吉林、黑龙江和蒙古东部的东北地区，人烟稀少，大部分土地处于荒野未开、崇山未辟的状态。清军入关在北京建立了清王朝，关外的满族人大多随军人关，据估计明末清初满族人口约100万，迁入关内的达90万之多，编入汉军旗的汉人和大批奴婢也随之入关。②即便在原来人口较多的辽东此时也是沃野千里，有土无人。为此，顺治元年（1…     

中国城市自有多套住宅家庭的空间模式实证研究

第二住宅古已有之,而在当代中国出现了规模逐步扩大的趋势。自住房制度改革以来,中国城市家庭住房来源和产权发生了巨大变化,已经从计划经济时期的租赁公房为主转变成了多样化的住房来源和产权,并且出现了拥有多套住宅的现象。地理因素影响第二住宅的获得。运用2005年CGSS数据分析了我国城市自有多套住宅家庭的地理特征,直辖市和省会市辖区自有多套住宅城市家庭比重低于其他城市,人口规模在50万以下的城市比其他城市自有多套住宅比例高,一线、二线城市低于四线城市。将城市居民分为本地市民、城镇移民、农村移民家庭和其他,本地市民家庭和全体城市家庭地理特征一致,城镇移民家庭和农村移民家庭空间模式有所不同,并且本地市民比移民更可能自有多套住宅。运用LOGIT模型在控制了家庭收入、移民类型等社会经济特征之后,城市行政等级和人口规模、市场等级等地理因素依然是影响全体城市家庭和本地市民家庭自有多套住宅的重要因素。它实际上表示的是地方住房市场,特别是房价和低价住房资源可得性等方面的差异。     

神农谷国家森林公园游客环境态度与行为调查

以神农谷国家森林公园游客为研究对象,以便利抽样方式调查森林旅游游客环境态度与环境行为的相关关系,以指导神农谷森林旅游可持续经营与管理的需要。经分析得到环境责任、生态关系、游客意愿和居民福祉四个游客环境态度因子,参与互动、积极参与、环境干扰、环境维护和后续保护五个游客环境行为因子。研究发现,神农谷游客环境态度与环境行为倾向整体较高,游客环境态度与环境行为意向显著相关。     

Do good governance provisions shelter investors from contagion?Evidence from the Russian crisis1

This paper studies how the Russian crisis of 1998 affected listed firms in transition economies. The data cover 394 companies that were listed before the Russian crisis, and include financial, industry, ownership and stock market information. Results show that in the short term (within one month of the crisis) good governance did not shelter investors from contagion. On the contrary, stock returns during the crisis period were lower for the largest and most liquid stocks and markets in the region irrespective of their direct exposure to Russia. The paper also documents that in the longer term (one year after the crisis) recovery was faster in firms without direct trade exposure to Russia, as well as in firms with better firm‐level governance as proxied by the presence of a foreign blockholder. The paper presents evidence that both firm‐ and country‐level characteristics are important in overcoming the effects of a crisis. Firm‐specific characteristics, however, play a bigger role for companies operating in countries with weaker corporate governance.     

Migration of the population

Two factors influence foreign migration balance of the Russian Federation. The first factor involves the migration process between Russia and former union republics. The influx of population to the Russian Federation from other republics of the former Soviet Union is considered as one of the largest in the world. The average annual migratory growth of Russia during the years 1991-94 as a result of this migration exchange has tripled as compared with 1986-90, with a total of 2.7 million Russians who migrated into Russia. However, from 1996 up to the present time, the number of persons arriving in Russia declined dramatically. Meanwhile, the second factor that determines the country's migration balance is emigration to the far abroad. The most significant trend in determining the development of internal migration in Russia is the outflow of population from northern and eastern regions. The directions of internal and external migratory flows have a large influence on the migration balance in Russia's rural areas. The reduction of migratory flows in rural areas is the direct result of processes in the economic sphere. It confirms the reconstruction of rural-urban migratory exchange.     

Migration and Wage‐setting: Reassessing the Labor Market Effects of Migration*

In this paper we employ a wage‐setting approach to analyze the labor market effects of immigration into Germany from 1980 to 2004. This enables us to consider labor market rigidities, which are prevalent in Europe. We find that the elasticity of the wage‐setting curve is particularly high for young workers. Moreover, natives and foreigners are imperfect substitutes. The wage and employment effects of immigration depend on the skill structure of the immigrant workforce. Because the foreign labor supply shift has mainly affected the high‐skilled labor market segment, the 4 percent increase of the workforce through immigration has not increased either aggregate or foreign unemployment.     

The Effect of Immigration on Residents' Incomes in Australia: Some Issues Reconsidered

This article outlines the standard neoclassical model (SNM) of the impact of immigration on the incomes of the resident (pre-immigration) population. We augment the SNM to allow for foreign ownership of and government equity in the capital stock. Using the expanded model, the sensitivity of residents' incomes to immigration is tested in four scenarios. Our calculations reveal that the size of the Berry-Soligo welfare triangle is small and is dominated by the effects of foreign ownership of capital and government equity in capital. In our preferred long-run scenario, the 1991–92 Australian immigrant intake reduced residents' incomes. We believe the results based on the expanded SNM justify a more comprehensive study incorporating a range of other influential factors determining the impact of immigration on residents' incomes. We suggest a list of such factors and report on work done in these specific areas. Essential to a comprehensive study are the integration of results from studies in specific areas, and the devotion of resources to the tasks of further data collection and model development     

Wages in a growing Russia

The robust Russian economic recovery after the 1998 financial crisis raised the economic standing of the population, especially for lowly paid workers, most of whom are women. In this paper I use the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey from 1996 through 2002 to ask whether this helped to reduce the gender wage gap. I first focus on those whose wages are paid in full. Next, I ask about the gender composition of wage arrears as the overall extent of wage arrears dropped from 60 to 20 per cent after the 1998 crisis. I show that a temporary widening of the overall gender wage gap in 2000 is due to low‐wage women becoming more likely to receive their wages in full than low‐wage men. Except for this effect, the male–female pay difference in Russia exhibits a stable pattern.     

俄语专业单一培养模式向复合型培养模式的转变——以东北石油大学石油俄语复合型培养模式为例

中国和俄罗斯作为联合国安全理事会的常任理事国,在国际事务中扮演着重要的角色。近年来,在国际形势经历着深刻变化的大背景下,中国与俄罗斯合作深度与宽度都在逐步扩大,这就使我国俄语专业迎来了新的春天。但我国俄语专业的培养模式还是单一"俄语语言文学"培养模式,亟须解决俄语专业培养复合型俄语人才的问题,使俄语专业人才更能适应中俄两国的合作发展,这些问题具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。因此,以东北石油大学石油俄语复合型培养模式为例,探讨转变俄语专业培养模式的问题。     

Can social sentiment affect spouse-based immigration?

This article studies the effect of social sentiment on spouse-based immigration in the US using data on 27 origin countries from 1996 to 2013. We find that the number of immigrant spouses from a foreign country to the US is directly correlated with this country’s popularity among Americans.     

海外购物中消费者权益保护问题

近几年来,随着旅游业的兴起、电子商务全球化发展,中国人购买、使用海外商品的情况呈爆炸性增长。国外的商品物美价廉,成为中国人的购物首选。出境旅游购物、网上海淘、网络代购成为近年来兴起的新型购物方式。随之产生的法律问题,诸如“货不对板”、“缺斤少两”、“乱收费”、“投诉无门”呈现新的变化,诉讼难度和执法难度大大增加。对海外购物的方式进行分析,旨在厘清各方的法律权利和义务,尝试提出完善该方面法律制度的建议。