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Expected S&P 500 futures price distributions are derived using no-arbitrage option pricing models. These distributions are parameterized both as the lognormal and as a less restrictive three-parameter Burr-XII distribution. The resulting option-based probability assessments display some evidence of miscalibration very near to expiration and far from expiration, but are accurate over intermediate time ranges. The means of the implied price distributions correspond closely to the contemporaneous futures prices for both distributions, although marginally better with the Burr-XII. The Burr-XII distribution also performs better than the lognormal based on calibration statistics, and hence, is used to recalibrate estimated distributions. 相似文献
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价格变化与经济增长之间的关联机理 经济学理论中对价格变化与经济增长关系的经典描述莫过于菲利普斯曲线.该曲线有三种表达方式,表明三对经济变量的关系. 第一种菲利普斯曲线表明的是失业率与货币工资变化率之间的关系,可称之为"失业一工资"菲利普斯曲线.第二种菲利普斯曲线表明的是失业率与物价上涨率之间的关系,可称之为"失业一物价"菲利普斯曲线. 相似文献
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This paper examines abnormal stock returns in the three years surrounding relatively large changes in dividends announced during the 1971 to 1990 period. The main results are that statistically and economically significant negative post-announcement abnormal returns of 11% and 17% over the post-announcement year are found for firms which decrease dividends and those which omit their dividends. Firms resuming and firms increasing dividends do not exhibit significant abnormal returns, on average, over the post-announcement year. The pattern of lagged price adjustment to negative dividend change information differs from that reported for 'earnings surprise' firms in important respects. While the dividend change firms do exhibit returns behavior consistent with year-to-year returns momentum, differences in prior year returns do not explain the differences in returns over the post-announcement period. 相似文献
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Jorge Ibarra-Salazar 《The GENEVA Risk and Insurance Review》2005,30(1):99-109
In this paper I extend the literature related with the newsboy model by analyzing the effect on orders of changes in risk and price. I show that risk aversion is necessary and sufficient condition for the newsboy to decrease orders when the demand suffers an FSD deterioration in risk, and analyze changes in price including an effect, which has been ignored in the literature.JEL Classification No.: D8 相似文献
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美元贬值和石油价格变动相关性的实证分析 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Liu Xiangyun Zhu Chunming 《国际金融研究》2008,(11)
进入新世纪以来,由于各种因素导致美元不断贬值,与此形成鲜明对比的是,石油价格一路飙升。那么,美元汇率和石油价格之间是否存在着某种因果关系呢?由于期货市场具有价格发现功能。本文以最具代表性的美国纽约商品交易所的原油期货价格为研究对象,分析美元贬值和石油价格之间的关系。本文首先定性分析美元贬值导致石油价格上涨的传导机制,然后利用模型对相关数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,石油期货价格的上涨,除了有美元指数的影响之外,更重要的原因是前期石油期货价格上涨对本期石油期货价格上涨有正向的推动作用。 相似文献
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物价变动是世界各国普遍关心的问题,针对目前我国市场存在的通货膨胀问题,物价变动会计的研究提上了日程。文章分析了我国推行物价变动会计的客观要求,分析了我国物价变动会计的现状,提出了我国发展物价变动会计的难题,并讨论了相关的对策。 相似文献
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This paper documents an important step in reconciling conflicting results by Manaster and Rendleman [16] and Stephan and Whaley [21] regarding price change relationships between options and their underlying stocks. Using recent advances in bi-directional causality testing and data sources available only fairly recently, statistical tests are conducted that mitigate the nonsynchroneity and bid-ask bias problems that may have affected the Manaster and Rendleman [16] study. Even with these adjustments, empirical results are consistent with Manaster and Rendleman [16], indicating that stock price changes adjust to lagged option price changes over two trading days. Moreover, results suggest that the causality is bi-directional. 相似文献
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This study examines 'no news' responses to stock price queries issued by the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX). We find strong evidence that the pre-query changes in price are driven by informed traders rather than by speculators. First, there is only a partial reversion in prices following a 'no news' response by a company in receipt of a price query. Second, the adverse selection component of market spreads rise during the immediate pre-query period and then decline following the company response. Last, the mean level of institutional shareholder ownership increases in the period immediately prior to an ASX query of a price increase. 相似文献
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: We employ three econometric models to examine the relative influence of the stock markets of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany on the stock markets of the Nordic-Baltic states. The results show that the Nordic-Baltic markets respond to price innovations from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany in diverse ways in the period 2001–2013. Response patterns for Finland, Norway, Sweden, Iceland, and Denmark are more significant to market innovations from the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, and less significant to those from Germany. German influence is more significant over Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia than the rest of the advanced markets. While the dynamics of the Nordic-Baltic markets exhibit a dominance of own price innovation, the influence of the United States is stronger than that of France, the United Kingdom, and Germany. These results imply that investors from the Nordic States may derive greater benefits by diversifying into Germany and vice versa, rather than diversifying into the United States, the United Kingdom, or France. Investors from the Baltic States may obtain greater advantages by adopting portfolio strategies that take advantage of potentially better diversification benefits obtainable from the United States, the United Kingdom, and France rather than from Germany, and the reverse will also be in order. 相似文献
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We examine the initial shareholdings taken by bidders prior to making tender offer bids ("toeholds") in order to test predictions of selected models of tender offers. Our data suggest a significantly negative relationship between first bidder premia and toeholds, which is consistent with the models of Shleifer and Vishny (1986) and Hirshleifer and Titman (1990), but inconsistent with the models of Harrington and Prokop (1993), Chowdhry and Jagadeesh (1994), and Burkart (1995). 相似文献
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In recent years in the United States and Canada, there has been an increasing interest in cash flow reporting and a strengthening belief that information on cash flows is valued in the marketplace. However, little research has been devoted to the issue. Regulatory bodies in the U.S. (Financial Accounting Standards Board) and Canada(Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants) require that an enterprise should disclose separately cash flows from operating, financing and investing activities in their cash flow statements. The data in the cash flow statements are expected to help investors assess the firm's liquidity, financial flexibility and risk. On the other hand, the British Accounting Standards Committee (ASC) does not require a statement of cash flows. This study employs a cross-sectional equity valuation model to examine the association of cash flows from operating, financing and investing activities with security prices. A sample of 403 U.S. firms is used for the ten-year period of 1976–85. The results of this study indicate that there exists a strong association between the various cash flow components included in the cash flow statements and the market value of the firm. 相似文献
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Municipal bonds are a large proportion of the total number of securities offered every year. The volume outstanding is more than that of all federal agency debt. It is important that the issuance procedure be as cost efficient as possible. This research develops a model to minimize the net interest cost of a municipal bond issue. Net interest cost remains a highly popular award criteria. The model incorporates the level and shape of the yield curve, the schedule of revenue to be received, and the segmented nature of the municipal market. 相似文献