现代银行监管理论的发展及对我国银行监管的启示

放松监管、银行危机与再监管是近30年来世界银行业的主旋律。随着经济和金融的深入发展,银行监管理论和银行监管实践都产生深刻的变化。本文从银行监管的经济学思想回溯入手,按照理论发展的时间顺序对银行监管的经济学思想进行梳理,并在信息不对称和博弈论框架下分析现代银行监管理论的发展,阐述现代银行监管理论的微观基础。最后,文章就现代银行监管理论对我国银行监管的启示提出几点看法。     

信息不完全、通货膨胀目标制与货币政策声誉:跨国经验

20世纪90年代以来通行的通货膨胀目标制被认为是极具透明性、灵活性的货币政策框架，受到很多国家的推崇。本文验证通货膨胀目标制是否有助于建立货币政策声誉，构建一个基于信息不完全基础上的动态预期形成模型，通过对通货膨胀目标制能否引起结构性变化的七个发达国家的实证研究，发现政策声誉的建立是一个学习过程。通货膨胀目标制实行的时间越长，该政策对降低通货膨胀率，实现经济稳定增长越有效。     

A Laboratory Investigation of Verification and Reputation Formation in a Repeated Joint Investment Setting*

This paper describes an experiment in which subjects, acting as division managers, exchanged privately held information before making intrafirm investment decisions. Social efficiency required that managers honestly disclose their private information, but managers had individual incentives to send biased messages. These features of the model created an important role for ex post verification, the main manipulation in the experiment. The matching protocol was also manipulated, using both random and continuous matching of subjects. This second manipulation was intended to examine whether an important institutional attribute — the frequency of interaction — would affect the usefulness of verification. The results of the experiment indicate that verification significantly increased the relative frequency of honest messages and the level of social efficiency. However, the improvements from verification were greater in settings where subjects did not interact repeatedly. The data also indicate that, in the continuous matching treatments, responses depended on the history of behavior of the message sender. However, this behavior was not observed in the random matching treatments. Thus, both the efficacy of verification and the extent of reputation formation depended on the institutional setting.     

The effects of governance changes on bank efficiency in China: A stochastic distance function approach

China has accelerated banking reform since joining the Word Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001. Employing a stochastic distance function approach, this paper examines bank technical efficiency and differentiates the static, selection and dynamic governance effects on bank efficiency for the 11-year period 1995–2005. The results show that bank efficiency has improved. Joint-stock ownership is associated with better performance in terms of profitability than state ownership (static effect). Strong selection effects are found for both foreign acquisition and going public reform strategies. Foreign acquisition may benefit domestic banks by efficiency gains in the long run, but privatization via initial public offerings (IPOs) appears to have only some short-term effects.     

Transmission of liquidity shock to bank credit: Evidence from the deposit insurance reform in Japan

Finding the causal effects of liquidity shocks on credit supply is complicated by the endogenous relation between loan demand and liquidity position of banks. This paper attempts to overcome this problem by exploiting, as a natural experiment, the exogenous deposit outflow prompted by the removal of a blanket deposit guarantee on time deposits in Japan. We find that during the period of transition from a blanket guarantee to a partial guarantee, weak banks suffered from a large outflow of partially insured time deposits. More importantly, we find that those weak banks were not able to raise a sufficient amount of other types of deposits to make up for the loss of time deposits, which, consequently, forced them to cut back on loan supply. These results are consistent with the theory that the imperfect substitutability of insured deposits and uninsured deposits affects the tightness of banks’ financing constraints and ultimately the supply of bank loans.     

The relationship between revenue diversification and bank performance: Do financial structures and financial reforms matter?

This paper contributes to the existing literature by investigating the impact of revenue diversification on bank performance through a broad array of financial reforms, including credit controls, interest rate controls, entry barriers, banking supervision, privatization, and financial account restrictions. This analysis is the first to investigate whether financial structures (bank- or market-based systems) change the effect of diversification on individual bank performance. We use a panel dataset sample from 29 Asia-Pacific countries covering the period between 1995 and 2009, for a total of 2372 banks. Unlike the results of previous studies based on data from the U.S. and Europe, this study confirms the hypothesis of the portfolio diversification effect for the Asia-Pacific banking industry. For bank-based groups, bank performance can be improved through diversification, supporting the “bank-based view” hypothesis. Finally, under different financial systems, the relationships among revenue diversity, financial reforms, and bank performances are multidimensional.     

An analysis of factors affecting access to credit in Lesotho's smallholder agricultural sector

The agricultural sector in Lesotho is underperforming mainly due to the inability of smallholders to move from traditional agriculture to a more scientific and technology-based one. Among the challenges inhibiting the ability of smallholders to make the step up is access to financial services, especially credit. The purpose of this study was to examine the factors that may influence the ability of smallholders to access finance by making use of a logistic regression model within the principle component regression framework. The results revealed that the ability of smallholders to access finance, and the potential to make the transition towards a more scientific and technology-based agriculture sector, is influenced by the level of farm and non-farm income, remittances and pension, farm size, availability of family labour, land ownership, savings and repayment ability. The results present important information in terms of guiding institutional arrangements needed to improve credit availability in Lesotho.     

Depressed access to formal finance and the use of credit card debt in Chinese SMEs

SMEs (small and micro enterprises) in developing countries are in general financially depressed; business owners thus resort to other financial instruments (here, personal credit cards) when access to bank loans is prohibited. By investigating two different types of SMEs (namely, informal businesses and formal SMEs) in China, we find that SMEs turn to credit card debt as a substitute when they fail to obtain bank loans. Specifically, we find that households with informal businesses are more likely to use credit cards when their businesses are financially constrained. We also find that when financially constrained, formal SMEs are more likely to carry credit card debt and are also carrying more. This relationship persists after selection issues are addressed. However, credit card debt and bank loans are hardly perfect substitutes as these two instruments may function differently. Consistently, we find that even with bank loans, formal SMEs still carry substantial credit card debt. Additionally, compared to those with no fund need and thus no bank loan, formal SMEs with bank loans are carrying more credit card debt.     

The effect of bank account ownership on credit and consumption: Evidence from the UK

This article examines the causal effects of bank account ownership on credit access and consumption by isolating an exogenous change in account ownership produced by an electronic transfer mandate in the universal UK Child Benefit program. Comparing households with and without children finds that the mandate substantially affected banking behavior, with an 8.6% relative increase in transaction account ownership. When households transition into account ownership, results indicate large increases in credit card ownership (89%), and household durable goods (55%). Similar changes are not seen in loan use, weekly expenditures, or vehicle ownership. Additional evidence from a panel data set indicate declines in the use of fringe bank credit, informal loans, and debt after households transition into bank account ownership. In total, evidence suggests that an important effect of owning a bank account is improved access to credit cards which enables durable good consumption.     

基层银行业金融机构银团贷款工作滞后的原因及对策建议

银团贷款业务是商业银行国际化程度的重要标志,也是国际上普遍采用的一种成熟的贷款方式。近几年来,国内经济发达的省份出现了"银团贷款两年增长近三倍,抱团合作赢得稳健经营"的势头。而位于西部边陲的新疆银行业却进展缓慢。本文在调查了解基层银行业的基础上,剖析了银团贷款难以推进的原因,并提出了对策建议。     

Millennium Development Goal shortfalls in Zimbabwe: Analysing the impact of access to water and sanitation on early childhood morbidity

ABSTRACT

An Africana feminist framework is presented that considers the ways in which inequality resulting from a historical legacy of political conflict and other dimensions intersect to impact upon the accomplishment of Millennium Development Goals with regards to environmental sustainability and child malnutrition in Zimbabwe. Demographic and Health Surveys are analysed from 1988 to 2011 to examine whether differential access to water and sanitation is predicted by ethnic differences in Zimbabwe, and is predictive of chronic malnutrition. Safe water and sanitation are in short supply, and logistic regression analyses provide evidence that residents in Shona and Ndebele-dominated provinces generally have better access to these resources. Uneven distribution of these development resources has a deleterious impact on early childhood nutrition. This work elicits results that give rise to child health-related policy recommendations that may inform post-2015 discussions of Sustainable Development Goals, namely that within-country ethnic differences must be taken into account.     

The death blow to unlimited liability in Victorian Britain: The City of Glasgow failure

In 1878, one of Britain’s largest banks, the City of Glasgow Bank, collapsed, leaving a huge deficit between its assets and liabilities. As this bank, similar to many other contemporary British banks, had unlimited liability, its failure was accompanied by the bankruptcy of the vast majority of its stockholders. It is generally believed that the collapse of this depository institution revealed the extent to which ownership in large joint-stock banks had been diffused to investors of very modest means. It is also believed that the failure resulted in bank shareholders dumping their shares unto the market. Our evidence, garnered from ownership records, trading data, and stock prices, offers no support for these widely held beliefs.     

Credit guarantee schemes as an instrument to promote access to finance for small and medium enterprises: An analysis of Khula Enterprise Finance Ltd's individual credit guarantee scheme

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) face many constraints, such as lack of credit, which hinder them from reaching their job-creating potential. This article focuses on the constraints that increase banks' risk in lending to SMEs, and how credit guarantee schemes are used to overcome some of them. In South Africa, Khula Enterprise Finance Limited, a government initiative, operates three such guarantee schemes. This article explains the functioning of one of the schemes, namely Khula's Individual Credit Guarantee Scheme. Its performance is evaluated with reference to international best practices. Although it is generally found to operate efficiently, there are various aspects concerning the functioning of the scheme that influence negatively the willingness of banks to participate. These problems need to be addressed, as the authors are convinced that a credit guarantee scheme, with all its problems, still remains a viable way for the government to lower the normally high risk involved for banks in dealing with SMEs, and in this way to entice them to serve SMEs.     

新会计准则下商标及企业商誉关系研究

商标和商誉作为企业重要的经济资源,一直是两个极易混淆的概念,这种混淆不仅掩盖了企业获取超额收益的源头,而且导致市场认知的企业价值与会计记录时常发生扭曲。这种状况在新会计准则出台之后,商誉已经从无形资产中脱离出来,在资产负债表中已经确定了独立的经济地位而得到改善。但是相对于有形资产评估而言,人们对无形资产的认识尚有待深入,评估方法还有待完善。本文通过对商标、商誉两种企业重要无形资源基本内涵的剖析,明确了两者间的区别与联系,指出了两者在特征上具有的相似性,存在现象与本质、内涵与延伸等联系。同时,这两者在最初定义的本质内涵、研究背景及理论基础、价值凸现、法律保护及赔偿办法等四个方面存在着明显的区别。     

Blacks in rural America: Socioeconomic status and policies to enhance economic well-being

This research documents the disadvantaged status of rural blacks. Many indicators of economic well-being reveal that rural blacks lag behind both urban blacks and rural whites. Investments in human capital are critical for improving the economic status of rural blacks; public assistance and equal opportunity policies are also important. Financing alternative policies remains a major constraint to reducing the disparity between the economic well-being of rural blacks and their white counterparts and between blacks in rural and urban communities.     

美、德农业社会化服务提供的启示

美国的农业社会化服务主要由三个部分组成：农业公共服务体系、集体农业服务体系和私人农业服务体系。公司＋农场、公司＋农户以及合作供销是美国农业社会化服务的三种形式。德国的农业社会化服务体系在于农业专业合作社组织的成功发展,尤其是健全的农村金融服务体系,由一个具有三级层次结构的分权型组织组成,通过立法和提供一些优惠政策,政府在服务体系中起了重要作用。我国农业社会化服务体系的组成和服务形式与美、德十分相似,在推动农村经济发展方面却有一定差异,美国和德国农业社会化服务的经验对中国农业社会化服务的发展具有重要启示。     

从过热增长回归正常增长——近期中国宏观经济走势与前景

2012年中国经济将基本完成这一轮软着陆过程,国内生产总值将从前些年过热的两位数以上增长速度,回落到8.5%左右的合理水平,并为今后几年较为平稳的增长奠定基础。这轮调整,本质上是2008年国际金融危机爆发前业已进行的调整的继续,是中国宏观经济回归正常增长轨迹的体现。在此轮下行调整中会有一些新的问题值得政策关注。总的看,宏观经济政策调整应当坚持及时和微调原则,并注意把握与结构调整和体制改革相结合的方针。