The (in)stability of farmer risk preferences

We test and quantify the (in)stability of farmer risk preferences, accounting for both the instability across elicitation methods and instability over time. We use repeated measurements (N = 1530) with Swiss fruit and grapevine producers over 3 years, using different risk preference elicitation methods (domain-specific self-assessment and incentivised lotteries). We find that farmers' risk preferences change considerably when measured using different methods. For example, self-reported risk preference and findings from a Holt and Laury lottery correlate only weakly (correlation coefficients range from 0.06 to 0.23). Moreover, we also find that risk preferences vary considerably over time, that is, applying the same elicitation method to the same farmer in a different point in time results in different risk preference estimates. Our results show self-reported risk preferences are moderately correlated (correlation coefficients range from 0.42 to 0.55) from one year to another. Finally, we find experiencing crop damages due to climate extremes and pests is associated with farmers becoming more risk tolerant over time in specific domains.     

The influence of risk preferences,knowledge, land consolidation,and landscape diversification on pesticide use

Researchers have spent substantial effort to identify factors influencing pesticide use intensity. However, few studies have compared the relative importance of these factors. This study examines four categories of factors that potentially influence farmers’ pesticide use decisions by evaluating incentivized experiment data, farm survey data, and remote sensing data in China. Our results suggest that land diversification has the largest effect on farmers’ pesticide use. Compared with the most rice-intensive landscape type, less rice-intensive systems cause farmers to spray less on middle rice. Heavy pesticide use intensity is associated with land fragmentation as small-scale farms still dominate crop production. Farmers’ integrated pest management knowledge has significant effects on pesticide use. We also find that loss and ambiguity preferences, rather than risk preferences, are more likely to affect pesticide use intensity.     

The Role of Risk and Transaction Costs in Contract Design: Evidence from Farmland Lease Contracts in U.S. Agriculture

The objective of this article is to provide new empirical evidence on landlord-tenant choices of share versus cash-rent contracts in U.S. agriculture. The focus is on the contribution of explanatory variables that represent transaction costs, risk-sharing incentives, or both. An empirical model of contract choice is tested against the 1999 Agricultural Economics and Land Ownership Survey (AELOS) and finds mixed evidence for low transaction cost and risk-sharing-incentive motives for landlord-tenant choices of a share versus cash-rent contract. However, the behavior of landlords and tenants is consistent with them being risk averse. Although it is standard to control for the riskiness of the principal's task that is contracted, we find that other attributes of the landlord are an important part of a relatively complex story for U.S. land tenancy contacting. The latter results have generally been ignored in other published landlord-tenant contracting studies.     

The effects of EU agricultural policy changes on farmers' risk attitudes

This analysis utilises a model of production under risk estimatedon Finnish farm-level data to measure farmers' risk attitudesin a changing policy environment. We find evidence of heterogeneousrisk preferences among farmers, as well as notable changes overtime in farmers' degree of risk aversion. This result is dueto the increase in the non-random part of farm income generatedby the policy change after Finland's European Union accession.The analysis confirms the assertion that agricultural policiesthat are decoupled from production do affect input use and cropmix through their effect on farmers' risk attitudes.     

基于委托代理博弈的水利工程PPP项目逆向选择与道德风险分析

为保证水利工程PPP项目的顺利建设与运营,论文针对水利工程PPP项目的特点,在分析其逆向选择和道德风险产生原因和危害的基础上,构建了无不确定性的委托代理模型和有不确定性但可监督的委托代理模型,并对模型进行求解和分析,针对性地提出制定激励机制、提高政府监管效率和加大惩罚力度三个建议,以减少水利工程PPP项目中逆向选择和道德风险问题的发生。     

Production risk,risk aversion and the determination of risk attitudes among Spanish rice producers

Agricultural production is subject to risk and the attitudes of producers toward risk will influence input choices insofar as these affect production risk. Risk attitudes in turn may be affected by certain socioeconomic characteristics of producers. Using 2004 survey data from a cross‐section of 130 Spanish rice farms, we estimate risk‐aversion coefficients of farmers and investigate the influence of a series of socioeconomic variables on their risk attitudes. Our results show that farmers exhibit risk‐averse behavior and that risk attitudes are related to a series of socioeconomic characteristics. In particular, the belief that the farm will continue after the producer retires is found to increase the degree of risk aversion, while age is found to have nonlinear effects on risk aversion. Off‐farm income, especially from nonagricultural activities, is found to reduce risk aversion. Neither the educational level of the producer nor the presence of dependents on the household is found to have an effect on risk preferences. Regarding the production technology, we find that land, labor, and fitosanitary products are risk‐reducing inputs, whereas capital, seeds, and fertilizer all increase risk.     

红枫湖沿岸土地利用变化与生态风险评估

本文以喀斯特地区典型高原湖泊-红枫湖为研究对象,依据景观生态学及生态风险评价等相关理论,综合运用“3S”技术、野外调查验证和生态风险评价及格局优化等技术手段,从土地利用变化演变及景观尺度上就红枫湖湖岸周围的生态风险进行探讨,定量分析湖岸周围格局演变及生态风险变化特征,针对性地提出湖岸周围格局优化的调控措施。本文对丰富喀斯特地区高原湖区景观生态格局及风险评价的研究内容、指导红枫湖流域及类似高原湖泊流域的生态环境保护及恢复、促进区域可持续发展具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。     

The impact of EU trade preferences on the extensive and intensive margins of agricultural and food products

In this article, we study the trade creation effects of EU preferential trade agreements (PTAs) in the agriculture and food sectors for a large sample of developing countries in the period 1990–2006. We investigate the extent to which the PTAs affect trade through the extensive margin—number of exported products—or the intensive margin—volume of existing products. We use a gravity framework in a panel data setting, and different estimators to deal with the issues of zero trade flows and the presence of an upper bound in the dependent variable. The results show that EU PTAs positively affect the extensive margin in agricultural trade, but not in processed foods. As regards the intensive margin, the effect is driven by the role of tariffs alone, whereas the other provisions of PTAs do not exert any other significant impact on agricultural or food products.     

Impact of contract farming on yield,costs and profitability in low‐value crop: evidence from a low‐income country

Lentils, a low‐value and highly nutritious crop, are Nepal's largest pulse cash crop. However, the majority of the nation's smallholders produce lentils on very small plots of land. The large gap in lentil yields between Nepal and other lentil‐producing countries underscores the importance of improving yields and income of smallholders. When it comes to the financial viability of small farms, particularly in developing countries, and globalisation, contract farming (CF) may prove useful in achieving efficiency and profitability in smallholder lentil farms in Nepal. This study employs the propensity score matching approach to examine the effects of the adoption of CF on yields, profitability and costs of smallholder lentil farms in Nepal. Findings from this study reveal that contrary to popular belief, CF adoption by lentil producers in Nepal has a positive and significant effect on per‐hectare revenues, profits and yield and a negative impact on variable and transportation costs. The study finds that only very smallholder lentil farms (0.01‐0.05 ha) benefit from CF.     

The identification and assessment of ecological risks for land consolidation based on the anticipation of ecosystem stabilization: A case study in Hubei Province,China

The purpose of this study is to identify and classify the ecological risks in land consolidation, and to develop a framework of the theory and method to assess the change of ecological risk degree before and after land consolidation. Environmental impacts and ecological risks of land consolidation have recently drawn much attention, and there are two opposing viewpoints to assess these impacts and risks in the academia of China. Both viewpoints result from the bias of assessment anticipation. Land consolidation includes four main engineering aspects in China, and ecological succession from start of land consolidation to ecosystem stabilization should pass three phases. Different ecological impacts and risks of land consolidation rise from different phases of ecological successions. According to the climax theory of ecology, we developed a framework of the ecological risk assessment based on the anticipation of ecosystem stabilization (ERABAES) for land consolidation. We applied analytical hierarchical processing (AHP) method to the data resources from the land consolidation project in Southern China to allocate weightings to the indices of ecological risk (ER), and to set up an integrated index system for the ecological risk identification. This integrated index system encompasses the ecological risks with three factors (water, soil and biology) and 14 indices. The results of the project show: (1) The ER is reduced from 58.02 to 28.8 after land consolidation and the degree of ecological risk is down from Degree III to Degree IV. (2) According to the element analysis, the water ER is reduced from 21.53 to 6.16, its contribution to reduce the ecological risk is 53%; the reduced ERs of soil and biology are respectively 12.79 and 1.06, their contribution of ecological risk reduce is lower than water.     

The effect of decoupling on marginal agricultural systems: Implications for farm incomes,land use and upland ecology

In many parts of Europe, decades of production subsidies led to the steady intensification of agriculture in marginal areas. The recent decoupling of subsidies from production decisions means that the future of farming in these areas is uncertain. For example, in the uplands of the United Kingdom, an area important both for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision, hill farmers steadily increased stocking densities in response to headage payments but must now reconfigure farm businesses to account for the shift to the Single Farm Payment scheme. We examined hill farming in the Peak District National Park as a case study into the future of marginal agriculture after decoupling. We surveyed 44 farm businesses and from this identified six representative farm types based on enterprise mix and land holdings. We developed linear programming models of production decisions for each farm type to examine the impacts of policy changes, comparing the effects of decoupling with and without agri-environment and hill farm support, and evaluating the effects of removal of the Single Farm Payment. The main effects of decoupling are to reduce stocking rates, and to change the mix of livestock activities. Agri-environmental schemes mediate the income losses from decoupling, and farmers are predicted to maximise take up of new Environmental Stewardship programmes, which have both positive and negative feedback effects on livestock numbers. Finally, removal of the Single Farm Payment leads to negative net farm incomes, and some land abandonment. These changes have important implications for ongoing debates about how ecological service flows can be maintained from upland areas, and how marginal upland farming communities can be sustained.     

风险感知、风险态度对农村土地经营权流转的影响研究 ——以浙江省嘉兴市农村土地经营权流转为例

研究目的:探究风险感知、风险态度对农村土地经营权流转的影响作用,为推进农村土地流转制度创新实践提供理论和实证依据。研究方法:将风险感知理论与风险态度理论相结合,探讨两者对农村土地经营权流转的影响作用,提出研究假设,并通过浙江省嘉兴市农户的调查数据进行验证。研究结果:(1)风险感知对农村土地经营权流转产生显著负向影响;(2)风险态度对农村土地经营权流转产生显著负向影响;(3)风险感知和风险态度的交互作用对农村土地经营权流转产生显著负向影响,表明具有较小风险规避程度的农户,即使感知到农村土地经营权流转具有较大风险时,流转土地经营权的可能性也将增加。研究结论:农村土地制度创新实践中,关注风险感知因素和风险态度因素将有助于推进农村土地经营权流转。