Structural transformation in emerging economies: leading sectors and the balanced growth hypothesis

The paper uses the World Input-Output Database to address patterns of structural transformation in BRIC countries, Indonesia, South Korea, Mexico and Turkey. Sectoral drivers of aggregate labour productivity growth, and the relative importance of within-sector versus employment reallocation effects on aggregate labour productivity growth, are evaluated using growth accounting decomposition methods. Decomposition results are used to assess how patterns of structural transformation relate to macroeconomic performance in terms of aggregate labour productivity, output and employment growth. Together with the construction of ‘Hirschman compliance indices’, decomposition results are also used to shed light on the balanced versus unbalanced growth debates. The paper goes on to assess the extent of complementarities between manufacturing and information and communications technology-intensive advanced services through intermediate inputs, comparing the eight emerging countries with G7 countries over time.     

Technology catch-up in agriculture among advanced economies

We examine whether countries with low initial levels of agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) tend to ‘catch up’ with the technology leaders. We first compare relative levels of agricultural TFP, capital services and labour input levels in agriculture for 17 OECD countries between 1973 and 2011. Then we apply (conditional) convergence analysis to the panel data to examine the speed of convergence and test whether the convergence is transitory or permanent by analysing TFP changes over the business cycle. Capital intensities, quality improvement of capital, factors such as human capital spillovers, and certain agricultural policies are conditioning variables. We examine how differences in relative capital intensities affect agricultural productivity convergence over the business cycle. We find evidence that the speed of convergence increases during periods of contraction in economic activity.     

Specialization and Diversification in Agricultural Transformation: The Case of West Punjab, 1903–92

In this article, the role of crop specialization and diversification in agricultural transformation is investigated empirically. Changes in aggregate land productivity are associated structurally with inter-crop and inter-district reallocation of land use. Results from a region with the oldest history of agricultural commercialization in developing countries show that cropping patterns of subsistence agriculture changed substantially, with rising concentration of crop acreage in districts with higher and growing productivity. Rapid specialization in crop production was observed at the district level recently, after a phase with sporadic specialization. These changes reflected comparative advantage and contributed to the improvement in aggregate land productivity.     

The structural transformation of African agriculture and rural spaces: introduction to a special section†

This article briefly introduces a special section on the structural transformation of African agriculture and rural spaces. The five papers that comprise this special section all draw on household‐level microdata to explore important aspects of the salient changes taking place in the world's most agrarian and poorest continent.     

Regional Shifts in Pork Production: Implications for Competition and Food Safety

U.S. pork production and processing is consolidating in larger, more economically efficient units, and shifting from the Midwest into the Southeast. A regional model of farm supply and processing demand shows that smaller Midwest operations can survive only if processing capacity remains concentrated in that region. Salmonella incidence is higher in the Southeast and on larger farms. Restricting salmonella incidence in hogs delivered for processing to the minimum feasible level would increase total industry costs by 3%, due to increased production and delivery costs. It would also increase the comparative advantage of farms and processing firms in the Midwest.     

Adaptation and Climate Change Impacts: A Structural Ricardian Analysis of Farm Types in Germany

Based on farm census data, we explore the climate‐dependent incidence of six farm types and the climate‐induced impacts on land rental prices in Germany. We apply a structural Ricardian approach by modeling the dominant farm type at 9,684 communities as depending on temperature, precipitation and other geographic variables. Rents per farm type are then modeled as depending on climate and other conditioning variables. These results allow the projection of the consequences of climate change as changes in our climate variables. Our results indicate that permanent‐crop farms are more likely to dominate in higher temperatures, whereas forage or mixed farms dominate in areas of higher precipitation levels. Land rental prices display a concave response to increases in annual precipitation, and appear to increase linearly with rising annual temperature. Moderate‐warming simulation results for future decades benefit most farm types but seem to penalise forage farms. Rental prices are projected to increase, ceteris paribus, for all farm types.     

Crop genetic diversity, farm productivity and the management of environmental risk in rainfed agriculture

This paper presents an assessment of the linkages between cropgenetic diversity, farm productivity and risk management. Aflexible moment-based approach is used to analyse the impactof crop genetic diversity on the mean, variance and skewnessof yield. Using farm-level data from Sicily (Italy), econometricevidence shows how crop genetic diversity can increase farmproductivity and reduce risk exposure. The empirical resultsindicate that crop genetic diversity can reduce variance, butonly if pesticide use is low. Furthermore, high diversity levelscan reduce downside risk exposure (e.g. the risk of crop failure).This provides useful insights on the linkages between resilienceand crop genetic diversity.     

Mergers and Acquisitions and Productivity in the U.S. Meat Products Industries: Evidence from the Micro Data

This article investigates the motives for mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in the U.S. meat products industry from 1977 to 1992. Results show that acquired meat and poultry plants were very productive before mergers, and that all but the very largest meat slaughter and processing plants and all but the bottom 20% of the poultry slaughter and processing plants significantly improved their productivity growth in their postmerger periods. These results lead to the conclusion that synergies and related efficiencies are important motives for M&As.     

The Source of Productivity Growth in Dutch Agriculture: A Perspective from Finance

In corporate finance, the impact of capital structure on firm performance has been widely studied. This article extends the capital structure study to the situation in agriculture, explicitly addressing the difference between family farms and corporate firms. We use the Malmquist productivity growth index as a proxy for performance to study the impact of capital structure (debt) on farm performance. We compare the results with those from the traditional performance model that uses profitability (e.g., return on equity (ROE)) as performance measure. Using data from Dutch arable farms, results show that debt has no effect on ROE, whereas it has a positive effect on productivity growth.     

Climate change and Australia's comparative advantage in broadacre agriculture1

Australia has long been a major exporter of the products of broadacre agriculture, a production system well suited to the economic and climatic conditions of the country. Presumably, it holds a comparative advantage in these products, among which grain crops and grazing livestock predominate. However, the future plausibility of this proposition is sensitive to the projected impacts of climate change. This article develops a framework to quantify the future patterns of comparative advantage in broadacre agriculture, given the projections of several global climate models. We find empirical support for the conventional wisdom, and note substantial resilience and robustness in Australia's comparative advantage under a number of scenarios.     

Modelling technical change in Italian agriculture: a latent variable approach

This paper presents an alternative approach to the measurement of technical change. It is based on the latent variable level of technology that enters explicitly the input demand system and on a hypothesis about the innovation generating process. By adding measurement error equations, the behavioral system can be viewed as a Multiple Indicators/Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. The parameter estimates are obtained with a maximum likelihood estimator which involves the implicit covariance matrix. The analysis refers to Italian agriculture and the results provide some evidence on the nature and level of technical change during the years 1961–1991.     

Structural and productivity change in US agriculture, 1950–1982

This paper tests whether structural change in US agriculture is an important channel to TFP growth and evaluates the relative impact of (i) public research and education policies, (ii) private R&D and market forces, and (iii) government farm programs on structural change. We specify a structural econometric model, fit it to US state aggregate data, 1953–1982, and use the associated reduced‐form model to perform counter‐factual policy simulations. The findings include: structural change is a channel to TFP growth in both crop and livestock subsector, i.e. specialization, size, and part‐time farming do impact TFP, holding other variables constant. Public R&D and education have been at least as important as private R&D and market forces for changing livestock specialization, farm size, and farmers’ off‐farm work participation over the study period, but private R&D and market forces have been relatively more important for crop specialization. Changes in farm commodity programs had little impact on farm structure over these study period. Overall, we conclude that if public R&D and education policies had been unchanged at their 1950 values over 1950–1982, major structural changes in US agriculture would have occurred anyway. The forces of private R&D and market forces were at work, including a decline in the price of machinery services and agricultural chemicals, relative to the farm wage.     

论"买方市场"环境下的地勘行业产业结构调整战略

进入 2 1世纪 ,买方市场已经全面取代了卖方市场 ,地勘行业以往在卖方市场中取得的产业结构调整经营业绩也成为历史。面对竞争更加激烈 ,市场开发难度更大的买方市场新环境 ,全体地勘员工必须对自身的经济活动进行新的规划和定位 ,以便使我们能在高层次国际化竞争的环境里寻找到新的生存发展机会     

Agriculture in transition economies: from common heritage to divergence

The 23 former socialist countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) started the transition in 1989–1990 from a common institutional and organizational heritage, represented by the Soviet agricultural model. Despite the common heritage in agriculture, the reform policies in CEE and CIS diverged from the start, as significant differences emerged between the two groups of countries in legal attitudes to private land ownership, transferability of land, the extent of agricultural privatization and individualization, and restructuring of farms. This divergence in the implementation of agricultural reform has led to divergence in standard development measures: the CEE countries are outperforming the CIS countries by growth in GDP and agricultural product since 1992; the productivity of agricultural labor in CEE is generally increasing, and in CIS it is decreasing. While the CIS countries at best can be characterized as reluctant reformers, the CEE countries have achieved significantly higher levels of economic and institutional reform. Better performance in CEE is associated with greater readiness of the governments in these countries to implement a comprehensive package of economic and social reform policies, including more radical land reform and deeper individualization and restructuring of agriculture.     

Labor‐saving technologies and structural transformation in northern Ghana

Labor‐saving technologies played a fundamental role historically in the structural transformation of agrarian economies. We focus on an emerging labor‐saving trend in Ghana, use of motorized tricycles (MTs), which provide an affordable alternative to manually transferring crops from plots to homestead. A household survey collected in 2017 in northern Ghana is used to shed light on how the time savings made available by using MTs may be converted into activities that enhance agricultural productivity and/or diversify the household away from agriculture. Detailed information collected on the agricultural production and agro‐processing behavior of 1,400 households allows us to examine the above transformative channels. Ordinary least squares and instrumental variable regressions are applied to quantify the effect of MTs on related outcomes. We find households are able to diversify their farming activities into selling processed agricultural goods with the time savings provided through MT adoption. Policies aimed to foster the diffusion of MTs elsewhere in Ghana may expedite structural change and, hence, economic growth.     

Economic development lessons from and for North American Indian economies*

This paper reviews the literature on economic development as it relates to indigenous people in the United States and Canada, and focuses on how institutions affect economic development of reservation and reserve economies. Evidence shows that strong property rights to reservation and reserve land and natural resources, whether communal or individual, are and always have been important determinants of productivity. Political and legal institutions that are perceived as stable and predictable to tribal members and to non‐Natives also improve economic opportunities for indigenous people living on reservations and reserves. Research reviewed here also shows that culture and acculturation are important in the development process. Although our emphasis is on North America, the findings are applicable to indigenous people in other parts of the world and shed light on growth questions that loom large for developing countries around the world.     

Predator or prey? Effects of farm growth on neighbouring farms

We provide explorative insights on how farms which manage strong and successful growth affect farms in their neighbourhoods through spatial competition for land. The study is based on an exploratory analysis of repeated framed experiments within the business game FarmAgriPoliS (Appel & Balmann, Ecological Complexity, 40, 2019). In particular, we analyse the spatial influences of different behavioural clusters of farm managers. Our analysis finds that farms which manage strong growth substantially affect the development of farms in a spatial neighbourhood of some 10 km. Although the influence on the neighbourhood decreases with distance, the functional correlations of farm growth as well as exits are neither linear nor exponential, but eventually rather wave-like. We further discuss the spatial interdependence of farms and the related overlaps of the predator–prey phenomenon with the phenomena of farms' path dependency and agricultural structural change. We conclude that along with farmers' strategies and their abilities, the characteristics of their neighbours and the distances between neighbouring farms also determine who is ‘predator’ and who is ‘prey’.     

对渔业综合生产能力与渔业增长方式转变辩证关系的探讨

本文在对渔业综合生产能力与渔业增长方式转变概念进行阐述的基础上，分析了渔业综合生产能力与渔业增长方式转变的区别与联系，指出渔业综合生产能力与渔业增长方式转变都是基于生产要素之上的概念，而渔业生产要素状况决定着其生产能力状况，综合生产能力的量变将引致增长方式转变的质变。所以，要实现渔业增长方式的根本性转变，首先要提高渔业综合生产能力，而渔业综合生产能力的提高主要依赖于渔业生产要素状况的改善。基于此，改善渔业生产要素状况是我们当前工作的重中之重。