FDI,Export Sophistication,and Quality Upgrading: Evidence from China's WTO Accession

This paper identifies a positive effect of FDI liberalization on manufacturing export sophistication, exploiting China’s adjustment of its Catalogue for the Guidance of Foreign Investment Industries upon its accession to WTO. It further investigates the underlying causes in the lines of firm ownership type, trade mode, product type, and intensive vs. extensive margins. The positive effect comes from, e.g., the increase in the export share of foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) and firms with processing trade, and the increase in the export sophistication of privately-owned enterprises (POEs), of ordinary trade, and of intermediate goods. The intensive margin rather than extensive margin is accountable for the effect. Liberalizing FDI does not seem to have any significant effect on product quality.     

Effects of presidents’ characteristics on internationalization of small and medium firms in Japan

Recent heterogeneous-firm models of international trade suggest that productivity determines whether firms engage in export activity and foreign direct investment. In practice, however, many productive firms are not internationalized, whereas many unproductive firms are, which suggests that there are factors other than productivity that influence firms’ internationalization. This study uses a unique panel data set for Japanese small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to examine whether the personal characteristics of a firm’s president are factors in firm internationalization. We find that SMEs with a risk-tolerant, forward-looking president are more likely to be internationalized. These effects are large in magnitude, as is the productivity effect, which provides a partial explanation as to why many productive firms are not internationalized. In addition, we find that productivity has an insignificant effect on firms exiting export markets, whereas presidential myopia increases the probability of exit. The evidence further suggests that a firm’s initial export costs become sunk following its entry into export markets, which explains why many unproductive firms are internationalized.     

How the Internet Promotes China's Exports: A Firm‐level Perspective

The development of information and communications technology (ICT), particularly the Internet, has reduced trade costs. However, it remains unclear whether these reduced costs are reflected in the “extensive margins” of firms’ exports (which refer to the probability of firms exporting) or the “intensive margins” (which refer to the value of firms’ export). To test this, we used the concepts of information cost and binary margins, an augmented trade model of firm heterogeneity, a two‐stage Heckman estimation, and data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey of Chinese firms in 2012. The results revealed that reduced trade costs from the use of ICT were positively related to extensive margins but that the connection with intensive margins was not significant. The results lead to the conclusion that reduced information costs related to a firm's exporting behavior were primarily reflected in variable trade costs. This study offers theoretical and empirical evidence for China's policies towards the Internet, which are relevant for the export of manufactured goods. The government should encourage the use of ICT to enhance firms’ export opportunities while facing current trade policy uncertainty.     

The effects of regional trade agreements on FDI by its origin and type: Evidence from U.S. multinational enterprises activities

The effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on foreign direct investment (FDI) depend on both the origin and type of FDI. To estimate the various effects of RTAs, I differentiate between various types of FDI by using data on the sales destinations of foreign subsidiaries of U.S. multinational enterprises (MNEs), while also addressing the endogeneity of RTA formation. Consistent with the theory of MNEs, I find that RTAs reduce horizontal FDI from intra-RTA countries and increase export-platform and total FDI from extra-RTA countries. Moreover, the overall effects of RTAs are positive for extra-RTA FDI, but inconclusive for intra-RTA FDI. The results also support the effect of integrated markets’ economies of scale in inducing extra-RTA FDI.     

Do regional trade agreements really help global value chains develop? evidence from Thailand

This paper examines the firm-level nexus between exporting and importing by using firm-level data from Thai customs. We differentiate firms’ imports according to the tariff regime used (e.g. regional trade agreements (RTAs)). Our finding is that imports under RTA regimes are not considerably associated with exports. Rather, greater exports are found in firms with larger imports under the most favoured nation or other preference regimes (e.g. duty drawback for raw materials imported to produce export products). One reason for the result in RTA imports is that active RTA importers mainly target the domestic market rather than the export market. If the main market is abroad, firms tend to use other preference regimes. Thus, the other preference regimes may contribute more greatly to the development of firm-level back-and-forth international transactions than RTAs do.     

Firm-level Utilization Rates of Regional Trade Agreements: Importers’ Perspective

This study provides evidence of firm-level utilization of regional trade agreements (RTAs) using transaction-level import data for Thailand. Two stylized facts are presented: some firms use RTA schemes in imports from RTA partner countries, whereas others do not; among firms that import from RTA partner countries under RTA schemes, some use RTA schemes for all transactions but others use them only for some transactions. To interpret these observations, we focus on the role of importers’ demand size. Specifically, we reveal that import firm-product-level RTA utilization rates are higher for larger-size importers in terms of demand, indicating that the difference in the share of utilization of RTA schemes across importers stems from the difference in the importers’ demand size. We also find that the utilization rates are higher when the preference margin, defined as most-favored-nation tariff rate minus RTA rate, is larger.     

融资约束与多产品出口企业的二元边际:基于中国企业层面的分析

本文通过匹配2002-2006年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关进出口数据库,将各个出口企业贸易额分解为出口广度和深度两部分,研究多产品出口企业融资约束与出口行为之间的关系,研究发现：（1）融资约束阻碍了我国出口企业出口总额、出口深度以及平均出口广度的增长;（2）融资约束对民营企业的出口行为影响最大,之后是外资企业和国有企业;（3）与中东部地区相比,西部地区企业的出口行为对融资约束的敏感程度大得多。     

How do firms respond to political tensions? The heterogeneity of the Dalai Lama Effect on trade

Little is known about the firm-level dynamics behind trade responses to political tensions. This article reinvestigates variation in the travel pattern of the 14th Dalai Lama to study how political tensions affect trading decisions of Chinese importers. Using monthly trade data from China Customs covering imports of machinery and transport equipment from 173 countries over the 2000–2006 period, our empirical results show a significant reduction of imports in response to foreign government members' meetings with the Dalai Lama. In line with the idea that Chinese importers face a trade-off between bearing costs from suboptimal trade transactions and costs from not accommodating the government, this ‘Dalai Lama Effect’ operates at the intensive margin, i.e., via a decrease in the import volume per importer. Examining differential effects across types of firm ownership, we find that the observed effect is driven by state-owned enterprises (and foreign-invested firms) and not by private companies. Moreover, while direct importers temporarily reduce their trade with Dalai Lama-receiving countries, there is some evidence that trade intermediaries fill the void. Overall, we find the effects to be much more short-lived than previously thought.     

South African Exporters and the Global Crisis: Intensive Margin Shock,Extensive Margin Hangover

This paper examines how changes at the intensive (established exporters exporting existing products to established markets) and the extensive (new exporters, products or markets) margins contribute to South African export growth and how this was affected by the global financial crisis. We find that the intensive margin is the more important contributor to export growth, contributing more than three quarters of observed growth. The intensive margin contracted significantly during the global financial crisis of 2009 but bounced back to pre‐crisis levels quickly. However, the impacts on the extensive margin persisted after the crisis with lower levels of entry of firms, new products and new destinations. The short‐term impact of the crisis was mitigated by the concentration of South African exports among larger, more productive super‐exporters. However, the fall in entry of new firms, products and destinations as a result of the crisis may mean that this concentration persists, and, at least over the next few years, South Africa does not diversify and broaden its exports.     

The impact of regional trade agreements on the quality of export products in China’s manufacturing industry

In recent years, under the risks of anti-globalization trend and uncertainty of trade war, countries have been entering into bilateral and multilateral regional trade agreements (RTAs). This study constructs both theoretical and empirical models to examine whether these RTAs can improve the quality of exported products among Chinese manufacturing enterprises, thereby expanding on a new policy research area that focuses on improving Chinese export quality or import quality of RTAs trade partners from China. The study finds that RTAs’ clause quantity (measured by clause coverage rate) and clause quality (measured by law commitment rate) play different roles. The former can generate “spaghetti bowl” effect but the latter can significantly promote export quality for Chinese manufacturers. The study also finds that RTAs can promote balanced development among the various regions in China and that a new generation of binding clauses in the “WTO-X field” with more new clauses strongly affects efforts to improve the quality of products exported to high and upper-middle income markets. We also find that for most industries, signing high-quality RTAs helps to improve export product quality, but there are no effect for some industries with laggard or special advanced technology.     

Trade policy uncertainty,development strategy,and export behavior: Evidence from listed industrial companies in China

On the basis of new structural economics theory and heterogeneity of firm viability, this study analyzes the effect of trade policy uncertainty on firm export behavior using panel data of Chinese listed companies in the industrial sector. Empirical results show that the high uncertainty of trade policy significantly inhibits the extensive and intensive margins of firm export, while heterogeneity effect occurs across firms with different levels of viability. The development strategy that violates comparative advantage strengthens the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on firm export. Despite their correlation with viability, the type of ownership, total factor productivity, and long-term loan are not suitable proxies for firm viability. Under high uncertainty of trade policy, export market diversification can alleviate the restraining effect of development strategy on firm export, whereas firms in regions with high industrial-oriented development tend to be vulnerable to cost shocks, thus reducing export market diversification. Findings present important implications for emerging market countries to enact better international trade and economic policies.     

要素市场扭曲与多产品出口企业的贸易边际研究

基于多产品异质性企业模型,本文从要素市场扭曲这一深刻的中国经济现实出发研究出口企业的贸易行为模式。研究发现：（1）要素市场扭曲通过工资效应激励了中国企业出口,并且这种激励的87%来自出口深度,只有13%来自出口广度;（2）与内资企业相比,外资企业利用扭曲从中国的廉价劳动力中获得了更多的出口激励;（3）在国有企业内部,扭曲对中小型国有企业的出口促进效果更强;（4）要素市场扭曲显著促进了间断性出口企业的出口,对于持续出口企业的影响并不显著。     

Product and destination mix in export markets

This article studies the joint destination and product strategies of exporters, using the universe of export transactions for firms located in Portugal in the period 1995–2005. The article breaks down the annual growth rate of total exports along different margins and details choices made by multi-product, multi-destination firms regarding their export portfolio. In addition, the article looks at similar features for the subsample of new exporters. We find that both the firm-level extensive and intensive margins are important in driving the year-to-year variation in aggregate exports. However, variation over time in the sales of continuing exporters is mainly driven by their sales in continuing destinations. In addition, a product’s export tenure within a firm varies largely across currently exported products in the context of an intense activity of product and destination switching. Moreover, the higher the importance of a product, the more its sales are concentrated in the firm’s top destination. Finally, the article finds that, while continuing exporters enter new markets mainly by selling old products, new exporters access new destinations mainly by exporting new products.     

广东中小外贸企业出口贸易融资创新路径探析

金融危机之后,广东省众多中小外贸企业经营面临重重困境,出口贸易融资作为促进贸易发展的一个工具显得尤为重要。笔者在对广东省中小企业贸易融资现状和成因进行分析,并在此基础上提出了适合广东省中小外贸企业的出口贸易融资方式的创新路径。     

Impacts of additional compliance requirements of regulations on the margins of trade

It is widely known that countries export less to destination countries with greater regulatory burdens. Using finely disaggregated product-level bilateral trade value and quantity data for 98 countries, together with a new data set of detailed information on technical regulations, we answer the following question: If a country faces a greater regulatory burden in a particular destination market, is that country more likely to export a narrower set of goods (the extensive margin) and lower quantities of each good at a higher price (the intensive margin)? We find that beyond the overall trade-diminishing effect, regulatory burdens adversely affect the extensive margin of trade. With respect to the intensive margin, regulatory burdens negatively affect the quantity margin but positively affect the price margin. As the negative effect on the quantity margin is relatively larger in magnitude than the positive effect on the price margin, the result is a negative net impact on the intensive margin.     

Trade Agreements and Economic Growth

This article studies the growth effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs), taking into account the World Trade Organization (WTO) participation of RTA members. Assuming smaller preference margins of RTAs for WTO members than for nonmembers, I show in a model a stronger growth effect of RTAs for non‐WTO members than the effect for WTO members. Based on a comprehensive set of 270 RTAs and a large panel data set over the period of 1960–2007, the regression results show that RTAs promote growth for non‐WTO members, while their growth effect is weaker and often insignificantly different from zero for WTO members. This implies that, so far, the complementarity between the two approaches of trade liberalization in promoting economic growth is limited.     

VAT rebates as trade policy: Evidence from China

Value-added tax (VAT) rebates are a commonly used export-promoting policy. This paper exploits China's frequent adjustments of VAT rebates and large-scale data on export transactions to estimate the effects of VAT rebates on exports. Our difference-in-differences estimations show that the negative adjustments of VAT rebates in our sample period significantly reduce export value and quantity by 15.30% and 19.75%, respectively. This shows that the trade policy of VAT rebates is very effective. We also find that the effect of VAT rebates on exports operating through extensive margins is larger than the effect through intensive margins. Moreover, we find that the pass-through of VAT rebates to importers is around 47%.     

Shipment frequency of exporters and demand uncertainty

This paper examines how exporting firms adapt to the uncertainty stemming from demand volatility. By using monthly customs data from France, we decompose exports into different extensive and intensive margins including two novel margins: the number of months the firms exported (frequency) and the average export value per month. We establish four empirical patterns. First, firms export less to markets with higher demand volatility. Second, this effect is mainly explained by the frequency margin. Third, volatility affects the frequency margin through two channels: indirectly through lower trade volume and directly through logistics re-optimization. In particular, our results suggest that firms send less frequent, larger shipments to more uncertain markets conditional on total exports. Fourth, the effect of demand volatility is magnified on markets with longer time-to-ship. We propose that these observations are in line with simple stochastic inventory management approaches.     

Best practices for regional trade agreements

Complicated web of hub-and-spoke type of overlapping free trade agreements (FTAs) can result in high costs for verifying rules of origin (RoO) and trade diversion or suppression effects. This paper attempts to provide best practices for regional trade agreements (RTAs) to enhance global free trade by mitigating these negative effects. By adopting a gravity regression analysis, we quantitatively estimate the trade creation and diversion effects of cumulated RoO (bilateral, diagonal, and full cumulation) for RTAs established under GATT Article XXIV and under the Enabling Clause. We find that (i) RTAs, in general, create trade among members and divert trade from nonmembers, whereby the net trade-enhancing effect is rather weak; (ii) RTAs should be established under the comprehensive GATT Article XXIV, rather than the piecemeal Enabling Clause; and (iii) full cumulation is the most optimal provision in terms of creating the most intra-bloc trade and diverting the least extra-bloc trade. Overall, we strongly suggest that RTAs should employ full cumulation of RoO under GATT Article XXIV.     

Backward participation in global value chains and exchange rate driven adjustments of Swiss exports

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate movements on export volume, export revenues and propensity to export taking into account the extent of foreign value added content of exports (“backward integration”) in global value chains (GVCs). Using both product-level and firm-level panel data, our results suggest that Swiss exports (intensive margin) and the export probability (extensive margin) are negatively affected by a currency appreciation. However, this adverse effect is mitigated in sectors and firms that are more integrated in GVCs, which could be explained by the “natural hedging” of exchange rate movements. Our findings are robust to the use of different measures of natural hedging and GVC integration and also hold across various specifications and estimation methods that control for sample selection, firm heterogeneity, heteroskedastic errors and persistence in export behavior. The dynamic specifications also reveal that export hysteresis driven by a currency appreciation is a concern particularly for firms that are not established in export markets.