Linking of U.S. monetary policy and exchange rates to world soybean markets

The linkage between macroeconomic policies and agricultural commodity trade has become an important research issue of agricultural economists. This paper investigates the macroeconomic linkage of soybean trade competition between the exporting countries of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina in the EC-12 and Japan import markets. It is argued that U.S. monetary growth may have important impacts on the competitive position of U.S. soybean exports through exchange rates. Two relationships are investigated: (a) the effects of U.S. monetary growth on the agricultural trade weighted exchange rates, and (b) the responsiveness of agricultural commodity prices and U.S. exports to exchange rate movements. Results indicate that a weak dollar increases imports of soybeans and soymeal significantly which serves to increase the equilibrium world price and increase both U.S. and Brazil/Argentina exports in the long run. However, during periods of more expansionary U.S. monetary policy there is little evidence of significant increases in market share position for U.S. soybeans and soymeal in world markets.     

A Price Analysis of U.S. Agricultural Exports in East Asian Markets

This paper examines the price competition between U.S. agricultural exports and that of its competitors in East Asia. The results show weak price competition in Japan's corn and soybean markets, and no price competition in the wheat market. U.S. cotton exports to Japan face strong price competition. In Hong Kong, U.S. market shares are low, while the demand for its rice, corn, soybeans and cotton is elastic. For South Korea and Taiwan, improved political relationships between China, South Korea, and Taiwan have caused the U.S. to lose market shares to China.     

AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: ESTIMATES OF INCOME AND PRICE ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY

This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand and supply of agricultural exports from developing countries, on the basis of (a) a consistent and fully specified supply and demand model, and (b) statistical estimation procedures not frequently used in the estimation of agricultural export functions. Estimates of price and income elasticities of demand for aggregate agricultural exports for all developing countries taken together — as distinct from individual exporting countries — are found to be low; moreover, export price as distinguished from non-price factors plays a relatively insignificant role in increasing export supply. Hence, an attempt by all developing countries to expand traditional agricultural exports with low price elasticity of demand may not yield rising earnings for all; but in fact may result in falling export revenues. Insofar as individual exports of all developing countries (not individual countries) are concerned, income and price elasticities of demand for such tropical commodities as tea, coffee, cocoa and bananas are also found to be low, except for new, non-traditional exports like pineapples. This indicates the importance of diversification of agricultural exports as a vehicle for their future growth.     

鸦片战争前的全国生丝产量和近代生丝出口增加对中国近代蚕桑业扩张的影响

为了对19世纪下半叶生丝出口增加对中国近代蚕桑业扩张的影响有一个度的测量,本研究对鸦片战争前的全国生丝产量进行估算。论文认为鸦片战争前的中国生丝产量大约为110000担;出口量约占全国生丝产量的10%。从19世纪上半叶到1929年中国生丝出口增加了20多倍,丝织品出口增加了大约10倍。出口增加总量220000来担,是1840年前全国生丝产量的两倍。在这一期间,全国生丝产量增加了约2.7倍,蚕桑生产规模约3.5倍,国内丝绸消费则下降了约20%。论文认为近代生丝出口增加是中国近代蚕桑生产大规模扩张的主要推动力,而且吸收了因蚕桑业扩张所带来的所有产量的增加。     

U.S. Agricultural Trade with Mexico

Abstract

This study examined the effects of exchange rates, economic growth, trade liberalization, and export assistance programs on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico. The Commodity Credit Corporation's GSM-102 Export Credit Guarantee Program reduces the risk associated with export financing and payment. The impact of the export credit guarantee program on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico was estimated in an import demand model using quarterly data from 1980 to 1996. The results indicate that for every $1 of export credit guarantees, Mexican imports of U.S. farm products increased $0.30. Real income growth in Mexico, however, was the most important factor in the expansion of U.S. exports. Trade liberalization under NAFTA also increased U.S. exports to Mexico.     

Price integration in the Australian rock lobster industry: implications for management and climate change adaptation

Rock lobster fisheries are Australia's most valuable wild fisheries in terms of both value of production and value of exports. Different states harvest and export different lobster species, with most of the landings being sent to the Hong Kong market. A perception in the Australian lobster industry is that the different species are independent on the export market, such that a change in landings of one species has no impact on the price of the others. This study investigates the market integration of Australian exports to Hong Kong for the four species and different exporting states. Our results indicate all four species and producers/export states are perceived to be substitutes for one another, so that, in the long run, prices paid to operators in the industry will move together. The integrated nature of the Hong Kong export market for Australian lobster suggests that the potential impacts of alternative fisheries management and development strategies at state and species levels cannot be considered in isolation, at least from an economic perspective. In addition, impacts of external shocks affecting production in one state (e.g. climate change) can be expected to affect all Australian lobster fisheries.     

China and Taiwan access to the World Trade Organization: implications for U.S. agriculture and trade

This paper investigates the impact of China's and Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on U.S. and world agricultural trade by means of a 12-region, 14-sector Computable General Equilibrium model for world trade and production. The simulation results show that integrating China and Taiwan into the global trading system could induce more competition on labor-intensive Products and reduce their prices. It could drive up the demand for capital and skill-intensive manufactured goods, thus further improving industrial countries' terms of trade. The expansion of labor-intensive sectors in China could also induce contraction in agricultural exports from China and increase its net agricultural imports by as much as US$9 billion annually, causing food and agricultural exports from other regions to increase. Total U.S. food and agricultural exports could increase by about US$2.4 billion annually, with the non-grain crop sectors gaining the most. The biggest winner from China's WTO accession is China itself. WTO membership could bring a net welfare gain of about US$30 billion a year for China, a substantial benefit compared with the gains for the USA (US$8.5 billion).     

Price Discrimination in the Context of Vertical Differentiation: An Application to Canadian Wheat Exports

The ability of the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) to price discriminate in wheat exports is examined. The conceptual model shows that the CWB's ability to exploit cost differences in pricing depends on the extent of differentiation between Canadian and U.S. wheat. This model is implemented using monthly confidential price data for exports to four markets from 1982 to 1994. The empirical results support the conclusions that (1) the CWB has market power emerging from product differentiation, (2) the CWB price discriminates across export markets, and (3) Alchian–Allen effects are important in pricing in markets valuing quality such as Japan and the United Kingdom.     

Unconstrained trade: The impact of EU cage bans on exports of poultry-keeping equipment

This study evaluates the impact of conventional cage bans for laying hens in the EU on exports of poultry-keeping equipment. Using detailed data on international trade in poultry-keeping equipment combined with an event study regression approach yields several new findings. The results suggest that the cage bans were associated with an increase in intra-EU trade, and also an increase in exports of poultry equipment from EU member states to non-EU countries where conventional cages are still permitted. The results suggest that some banned cages were likely exported to countries outside the EU to be used in egg production.     

Canada's beef exports: Border effects and prospects for market access

This paper examines the magnitudes of border effects on Canada's beef exports, and assesses the prospects for market access. The empirical analysis relies on a gravity model derived from a supply-based framework, and implements different econometric methodologies. It covers the conventional measurement of border effects that is determined relative to the intranational trade baseline. Also, it sets alternative baselines to estimate the wedge between the border effects on beef exports of Canada and those of other countries. The estimated parameters are used to carry out different scenarios to examine the tariff-related and nontariff border effects, and to evaluate the impacts of trade preferences for Canada's bilateral beef exports. The results reveal significant trade impediments facing Canada's bilateral beef exports to many large markets (e.g., EU-15, Japan, Republic of Korea, China, and Russia), and they often indicate that the effects of tariff reductions become considerably larger when coupled with reductions in nontariff impediments. Also, they underscore the significance of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)’s preferential market access for Canada's beef exports. The export opportunities for the Canadian beef industry that are generated through lower trade barriers would, however, decrease when trade barriers facing other beef-exporting countries are reduced.     

Gravity Model of Turkey's Fresh and Processed Fruit and Vegetable Export to the EU

Abstract

This study analyses the factors that determine Turkey's fresh and processed fruit and vegetable exports to the European Union (EU) using a gravity model. Panel data from 1995 to 2001 for 13 EU member countries are utilized. The explanatory variables are GDP, population, distance, Turkish population living in EU member countries, and being non-Mediterranean. Results indicate that the size of the economy, EU population, Turkish population in the EU, and addressing the tastes and preferences of non-Mediterranean countries are significant factors that affect Turkish fruit and vegetable exports. The results suggest that marketing strategies targeting the population of Turkish people in EU countries and non-Mediterranean member countries enhance the export performance of fruit and vegetable exports.     

Fighting global food price rises in the developing world: the response of China and its effect on domestic and world markets

This article addresses how China is being affected by and is responding to the world food crisis. So far, Chinese officials have responded to higher world prices by drawing down stocks and limiting exports of major grains. These policy instruments were not available for soybeans, so domestic prices of soy and other oilseeds have risen with international prices. Using a global CGE model, we show that the initial world price rise was largely due to higher world oil prices and demand for biofuels as opposed to other factors, especially in maize and soybeans. China's response to this shock has kept domestic grain prices low relative to world grain markets and to domestic soybean prices. As grain stocks are depleted, however, demand growth will push domestic prices back into alignment. Anticipating this pressure on consumers and accelerating supply response through public investment will facilitate adjustment.     

The impact of the Asian Crisis on Australia's primary exports: why it wasn't so bad

This article explores the modest impact of the Asian Crisis on Australia's primary commodity exports. Simulations using a global general equilibrium model show: (i) as capital flees Asia, investment in Australia increases and the trade deficit grows; (ii) while terms of trade deteriorate in the short run, they improve in the medium run as import demand increases in the crisis countries; (iii) exports of primary commodities expand as the crisis countries try to export more; (iv) more income-elastic primary commodities fare less well than the income-inelastic foodstuffs as incomes decline in the crisis countries; (v) Australia's relatively low dependence on manufactured exports was a buffer as manufactured exports came under heavy pressure from exports from the crisis countries.     

The New Tomato Suspension Agreement: What Are the Implications for Trade Flows?

This paper examines the implications of the new tomato suspension agreement (signed on March 4, 2013, by the U.S. government and Mexican tomato producers) for trade in fresh tomatoes and processed tomato products. The empirical analysis is performed through a gravity model that accounts for vertical linkages between primary and processed goods. The estimated gravity parameters are used to implement suspension agreement scenarios. The results show that the new suspension agreement leads to considerable decreases in Mexico's exports of fresh tomatoes to the United States. These decreases are accompanied with various trade diversion and deflection effects. There are increases in Mexico's exports of processed tomato products to the United States and other countries, and in Mexico's exports of fresh tomatoes to non‐U.S. destinations. These increases do not amount, however, to considerable compensations of the decreases in Mexico's fresh tomato exports to the United States. The results also suggest that the initial 1996‐based suspension agreement has significantly smaller impacts on trade flows over the period that preceded the implementation of the new suspension agreement.     

Trade and agroindustrialization in developing countries: trends and policy impacts

There have been important changes in the international trade of processed and high-value added food products from developing countries over the past several decades. One of them has been the emergence of oilseeds and fruits and vegetables, replacing traditional products such as sugar, coffee, and cocoa as the main exports from developing countries. Another trend has been the collapse of African agroindustrial exports and the increase of exports from Asia. The paper highlights key trends, and explores possible reasons for the trends, focusing on trade policies in less-developed countries (LDCs) and developed countries (DCs). The paper argues that national trade policies and other economic policies appear to have been relatively supportive of agroindustrial production and exports in Asia. In contrast, policies have had more mixed effects in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and seem to have been just one component in a larger array of forces inhibiting economic development in Africa. The performance of agroindustrial production and exports from LDCs may be now more dependent than ever on the completion of reforms in the agricultural trade policies of DCs. For Africa, however, a more supportive international environment and better macroeconomic and trade policies will not be enough to ensure a thriving agroindustrial sector within a broader process of economic development until military confrontations stop.     

Did China Hurt the Textiles and Clothing Exports of Other Asian Economies, 1990–2005?

Employing a gravity model, this article examines the impact of the rise of China's textile and clothing (T&C) sector on the exports of its Asian counterparts. It was established that China's textile exports posed a greater competitive threat than its clothing exports to the T&C exports of other Asian economies. It was also found that higher-income Asian economies fared better than their lower-income counterparts. This is because the higher-income Asian economies tended to be specialized in segments of the T&C sector less exposed to Chinese competition.     

基于DEA-Malmquist的沿海港口转型升级测度及趋势研究

从港口全要素生产效率视角出发,采用Malmquist全要素生产率指数对传统数据包络分析(DEA)方法进行改进,克服了传统DEA方法不能处理不同时期面板数据的缺点,通过构建基于规模报酬可变的DEA-Malmquist模型,可以掌握港口转型升级程度及发展趋势。以山东沿海港口为实例,利用DEA-Malmquist模型进行分析,结果表明:山东省沿海港口的总体效率在2014—2018年整体呈上升趋势;各个港口发展并不平衡;全省港口的Malmquist生产力指数虽然受到了规模效率的制约,但仍呈上升趋势。最后,提出了山东沿海港口转型升级发展的对策建议。     

Toward a consumer economy in China: implications of changing wage policies for U.S. cotton exports

The effect of a Chinese minimum wage increase on China's textile market as well as on the world cotton market is evaluated. Based on a Nonlinear Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (NQAIDS) model of China's textile demand, the results suggest that the income elasticity for textiles is around 0.6 in China, and that apparel is less price responsive than home textiles and other textile products. Simulation results suggest that a minimum wage increase would raise Chinese domestic textile consumption and lower Chinese textile exports. Most of the decline in textile exports by China is offset by expansion in other countries’ domestic textile production and results in a slight increase in world cotton mill utilization and higher clothing prices.     

Co-integration and error-correction modelling of agricultural export supply in Cameroon

Estimates of factors influencing Cameroon^,s exports of cocoa, coffee and cotton are derived in a system of equations using the Engle-Granger and Johansen co-integration and error-correction representation procedures. Two co-integrating vectors involving cocoa and coffee exports as endogenous variables are identified in the system while tests for exogeneily of cotton exports are consistent with the independence of cotton from the other two commodities. These findings are corroborated by estimates of a restricted error-correction model which lead to acceptance of the hypothesis that cocoa and coffee exports are-indeed determined endogenously to the system and not linked to cotton exports. Statistical significance of the error-correction terms for cocoa and coffee validates the existence of an equilibrium relationship among the variables in each of these co-integrating vectors. The combined short run dynamic effect of lagged quantities of cocoa and coffee, export/domestic price ratio and GDP jointly explain changes in exports of cocoa whereas lagged quantities exported do not seem to have a significant short-run dynamic effect on changes in coffee exports.     

我国农业机械总动力对农产品出口的动态效应——基于VAR模型的分析

在1981—2013年相关经济数据的基础上,运用向量回归(VAR)模型方法,从实证角度分析了我国农业机械总动力和农产品出口之间的动态关系。各项检验结果表明,我国农业机械总动力和农产品出口之间存在双向因果关系,适合建立向量回归模型。采用VAR模型、脉冲响应分析和方差分析方法,对农业机械总动力和农产品出口之间的动态响应关系进行计量研究,结果表明我国农业机械总动力对我国农产品出口具有长期的正影响。