Entry,information, and financial development: A century of competition between French banks and notaries

Poorly developed financial markets are widely believed to block economic growth, because only modern financial intermediaries such as banks can mobilize large amounts of financial capital at low cost. This claim is supported by cross country regressions, but the regressions assume that credit intermediation is measured accurately before modern financial intermediaries arrive. If traditional intermediaries were mobilizing large amounts of financial capital before banks or other modern intermediaries appear, then the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth would be cast into doubt. Using an original panel dataset from nineteenth-century France, we provide the first estimates of how much financial capital key traditional intermediaries (notaries) were mobilizing for an entire economy during its first century of economic growth, and we analyze the lending that the notaries made possible in French mortgage market. The amount of capital they mobilized turns out to be large. We then analyze the effect that financial deepening had on the notaries as banks spread and find that the banks' and notaries' services were in all likelihood complements. The implication is that the link between financial development and economic growth may therefore be weaker than is assumed.     

县域金融中介发展与县域经济增长的共振分析——基于河北省县域经济与金融现状的分析

金融发展与经济增长既相互促进又相互制约,经济水平落后,扼制金融资本的形成;金融积累的低水平又限制了经济的增长。金融发展水平的落后、低效是经济增长的最大障碍,打破这个链条的突破口应选择在金融的发展上。河北省各县域经济发展极度不平衡,这与各地金融发展的差异有关,因此如何通过金融规模、结构和效率的提高,实现资本在县域的最优化配置和经济的增长是本课题阶段性研究的重点内容。     

财政支出结构与经济增长的实证分析

本文基于省级面板数据,通过构建财政支出结构对生产要素效率影响的经济计量模型,对我国财政支出结构与区域经济增长进行了经验研究。得出财政支出结构与经济发展密切相关。不同类型的公共支出项目,对经济总体规模、资本要素产出和劳动要素的产出效率的影响分别不同。因此在现阶段有必要对财政支出结构进行优化,最大限度地发挥财政政策拉动经济增长的潜能,促进区域经济协调增长。     

Technology spillovers,absorptive capacity and economic growth

By establishing an endogenous growth model with knowledge-driven R&D, this paper aims to investigate the relationship between international technology spillovers, the host country's absorptive capability and endogenous economic growth. The solution to the competitive equilibrium problem shows that long-run growth arises from improvements in absorptive capability and higher human capital stocks, while the relationships between openness, the technology gap and the steady-state growth rate are uncertain. Econometric estimates of China's economic growth are obtained using province level data covering the period 1996–2002. The estimates indicate that technology spillovers depend on the host country's human capital investment and degree of openness, and that FDI is a more significant spillover channel than imports.     

Capital Flows and Economic Growth in the Era of Financial Integration and Crisis, 1990–2010

We investigate the relationship between economic growth and lagged international capital flows, disaggregated into FDI, portfolio investment, equity investment, and short-term debt. We follow about 100 countries during 1990–2010 when emerging markets became more integrated into the international financial system. We look at the relationship both before and after the global crisis. Our study reveals a complex and mixed picture. The relationship between growth and lagged capital flows depends on the type of flows, economic structure, and global growth patterns. We find a large and robust relationship between FDI – both inflows and outflows – and growth. The relationship between growth and equity flows is smaller and less stable. Finally, the relationship between growth and short-term debt is nil before the crisis, and negative during the crisis.     

Generalized trust,personalized trust,and dynamics of capital structure: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the impact of social trust on a firm's adjustment speed toward an optimal capital structure. Leveraging the availability of generalized trust and personalized trust metrics in China, we find that, as expected, when a firm is located in a high social trust region (with either generalized or personalized trust), it adjusts more quickly toward its target capital structure. Moreover, we document that the impact of generalized trust (personalized trust) on the adjustment speed is magnified if the firm already had stringent financial constraints (less-severe agency problems) but it is not related to the severity of a firm's agency problems (financial constraints). Additional analysis suggests that the impact of social trust on capital structure dynamics is primarily through debt rather than equity. Furthermore, we find that when a firm is located in a weak formal institutional environment, the impact of generalized trust on the adjustment speed strengthens, suggesting that formal institutions and generalized trust are partial substitutes. Interestingly, the substitution effect of formal institutions and personalized trust is weak. Hence, the impact of generalized trust and personalized trust on capital structure adjustment share some similarities but differ in other respects.     

Health,education, and economic growth in China: Empirical findings and implications

This empirical analysis examines the augmented Mankiw, Romer and Weil's model which considers both health and education in human capital in the framework of Chinese economy. We consider the relationship between per capita real GDP growth and the physical capital, human capital, and health investment in the production function. Panel data models are used in the estimation based on the provincial data from 1978–2005. The empirical evidence shows that both health and education have positive significant effects on economic growth. The results also show that the interaction of health and education stock will not reduce their impact on growth and there is perhaps a trade-off between two forms of human capital investment.     

Does financial structure matter for economic growth in China

Based on an extended neoclassical growth model, this paper explores the endogenous mechanism between financial structure and economic growth. Our theoretical analysis shows that there exists an optimal financial structure evolving to meet different demands of the real economy in the process of economic development. We then investigate whether financial structure matters for economic growth using a panel data of 29 provinces across the eastern, central, and western regions in China from 1996 to 2013. The empirical results show that financial structure has a significant impact on economic growth. However, the effect of financial structure on regional economic growth varies and presents an inverse U-shape. These results confirm the evolving effect of financial structure on economic growth at different stages of economic development.     

Financial System and Economic Growth: The Korean Experience

This paper examines the relationship between the development of financial systems and economic growth using Korea as a case study. In particular, we focus on the relative development of financial intermediaries and capital markets, and their impact on the portfolio behavior of the household and business sectors. Causality and non-nested model selection tests show that financial development in general leads economic growth and that financial intermediaries are more important than capital markets in this relationship.     

China's economic development: does exchange rate and FDI nexus matter?

This study aims to investigate the relationship between China's exchange rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and economic development. We applied the bound testing approach on aggregate level data from 1981 to 2013. The results showed that the Chinese economy benefitted from a lower exchange rate over this period, and that there was a direct link between FDI inflows and economic development on an aggregate level both in the long and short run. The results of the Granger causality test identified a long‐ and short‐run association among these variables. The GMM estimations with dummies for financial crises and RMB exchange rate policy fluctuations also confirmed the growth enhancing impact of the exchange rate and FDI inflows. To promote sustainable economic development in the future, China should focus on improving the levels of domestic investment and human capital, as well as supervising the level of openness and capital controls.     

Financial Development,Capital Accumulation and Productivity Improvement: Evidence from China

Financial sector development may contribute to economic growth by facilitating capital accumulation and by improving productivity. This article investigates empirically the contribution that financial development may make to these two alternative drivers of economic growth in China using annual data for the period 1952 to 2005. Using cointegration and Granger-causality testing we examine the relationship between financial development and, respectively, capital accumulation and productivity in a time-series vector autoregression (VAR) framework. The substantive findings are that there is either bi-directional Granger causality between financial development and capital accumulation or that Granger causality runs from capital accumulation to financial development, depending on how capital accumulation and financial development are measured. The link between financial development and productivity is found to be statistically weak.     

The Global Financial Crisis and Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Effects of Slowing Private Capital Inflows on Growth*

Abstract: This paper uses the bias‐corrected least‐squares dummy variable (LSDV) estimator to examine the relationship between economic growth and four different types of private capital inflows (cross‐border bank lending, foreign direct investment (FDI), bonds flows and portfolio equity flows) on a sample of 15 selected sub‐Saharan African countries over the period 1980–2008. Our results show that FDI and cross‐border bank lending exert a significant and positive impact on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth, whereas portfolio equity flows and bonds flows have no growth impact. Our estimates suggest that a drop by 10 per cent in FDI inflows may lead to a 3 per cent decrease of income per capita growth in sub‐Saharan Africa, and a 10 per cent decrease in cross‐border bank lending may reduce growth by up to 1.5 per cent. Therefore, the global financial crisis is likely to have an important effect on sub‐Saharan Africa's growth through the private capital inflows channel.     

Does inflation matter for growth?

The interaction between inflation and economic growth is studied within a simple model incorporating money and finance into an optimal growth framework with constant returns to capital. The model includes the potential impact of inflation on growth, via (a) saving and real interest rates, (b) velocity and financial development, (c) the government budget deficit through the inflation tax and tax erosion, and (d) efficiency in production through the wedge between the returns to real and financial capital. The hypothesized effect of inflation on long-run growth through these channels is estimated by applying the random-effects panel model to two sets of unbalanced panel data side by side, from the Penn World Tables and from the World Bank, covering 170 countries from 1960 to 1992. The cross-country links between inflation and growth are economically and statistically significant and robust. Specifically, the results show that inflation in excess of 10–20 percent per year is generally detrimental to growth.     

Opening up,Market Reform,and Convergence Clubs in China*

This paper evaluates the relationship between initial government policies and the emergence of convergence clubs in post‐reform China. We test the structural stability of a global convergence equation using China's provincial data over the period 1985–2000. We find that the provinces cluster around two basins of attraction defined by initial opening‐up. Domestic market reform exerts a positive and significant influence on provincial economic growth but has no threshold effect. The two convergence clubs exhibit strikingly different growth behaviors, suggesting that the roles of some growth‐promoting factors, such as human capital and infrastructure, depend on whether an openness threshold is passed.     

Financial Liberalization and Foreign Bank Entry on the Domestic Banking Performance in MENA Countries

Abstract: This study examines the impact of financial liberalization and foreign bank entry on the domestic banking sector from 1996 to 2007, and builds upon and expands the work of Lee (2002). We find that foreign bank entry, financial liberalization, ownership structure and degree of openness of foreign bank entry positively impact domestic banking system operating efficiency, capitalization, risk management, long‐term soundness, financial performance as well as economic and financial development. However, foreign bank entry is associated with reduced profit margins and increased operating costs of domestic banks in countries with less developed capital markets. Empirical evidence seems to support the argument that foreign bank presence leads to better allocation of capital and eliminates connected lending practices.     

基于三阶段DEA的河北省财政科技投入绩效评价文献综述

近年来,财政科技投入在促进国家科研创新、引导社会资本流动和加快经济高质量发展等方面承担了关键角色,因此,对财政科技投入绩效进行相关评价具有重要意义.从财政科技投入与经济增长与企业研发投入的关系、财政科技投入绩效评价的方法、DEA模型下的投入产出指标的选取,以及河北省财政科技投入绩效评价现状4个方面系统梳理科技投入绩效评价的相关文献.指出了未来研究需进一步关注的焦点.     

Economic Reform,Structural Changes,and Regional Economic Growth in China: Cross-Province Regressions

Through cross-province growth regressions this paper analyses the relationship between China's regional economic growth and economic reforms and structural changes since 1978. By applying the extreme bound analysis, the paper has demonstrated the statistical significance and robustness of the estimated coefficients of the following variables of interest: share of the state sector, share of foreign capital in capital formation, extra-budgetary funds to GNP ratio, and standard deviation of inflation. With these and such ‘always-included’ variables as GNP share of investment and initial level of illiteracy, regression models explain about 60% of cross-province variations in growth. The results suggest that continuing reductions in the state sector and attraction of foreign capital are two of the most important factors for rapid per capital income growth in China.     

珠三角区域经济发展的影响因素分析——基于面板数据协整理论的实证研究

文章基于珠三角地区的非平稳面板数据,运用协整建模的理论和方法,对珠三角地区的科技投入、资本存量、产业结构、基础设施、人力资本与经济增长的关系进行实证研究,结果表明,以上五大经济要素与经济增长之间有着显著的长期均衡关系,且五大经济要素对经济增长的贡献各不相同。最后,提出了促进珠三角区域经济持续协调发展的相关政策建议：整合科技资源、优化资本结构、升级产业结构、完善基础设施、培育人力资本。     

Physical activity,leisure-time,cognition and academic grades: Connections and causal effects in Chinese students

Academic achievement and positive leisure activities are traditionally considered significant determinants of economic growth and human capital accumulation. This paper estimates the impact of physical activity on academic outcome and time allocation to 25 different types of leisure activity by Chinese adolescents. We use structural equation models (SEM) to explore the channels of this transmission. Our results suggest that physical exercise not only exerts a positive direct effect on academic outcome but also increases (decreases) students' time devoted to activities that are positively (negatively) correlated with academic outcome. All the effects are statistically significant but modest at the individual level. Our findings are robust to different exercise frequencies and academic outcome indicators based on students' self-assessment, academic scores, and cognitive tests.     

制度、基础设施与经济增长

本文建立包含制度因素的生产函数,通过动态规划和比较静态分析,讨论了制度、人均基础设施与经济增长的关系.通过研究发现,制度质量不同,资本的边际产品随人均资本积累变化的趋势不同.而且制度会通过影响人均资本产出弹性而影响基础设施对经济增长的贡献.从而导致经济增长率的不同.而且本文证明了最优税率随制度质量提高而变高.最后,经济增长的稳定状态也取决于制度质量,制度质量越高,均衡状态时的人均消费越大,所需人均资本投入越小.