兼顾分配公平与增长可持续性的税制优化路径——基于跨国数据联立方程的经验分析

科学的财税体制有利于促进再分配公平与维持经济增长。本文基于1980～2018年跨国数据,采用联立方程系统估计方法,对税制结构、居民收入分配和经济增长三者之间关系进行实证分析,发现提高直接税-间接税比例能够通过\"纵向公平\"机制缩小收入分配差距,并通过\"收入效应\"机制保持经济增长,实现二者兼顾,但是会因国家所处的不同收入阶段而异。因此,应根据经济发展水平,加快建立以直接税为主体的税制结构。     

A Spatial Model of the Impact of Bankruptcy Law on Entrepreneurship

Abstract

This paper employs spatial econometrics techniques to estimate the impact of bankruptcy regulation on small firm formation. The estimation of the model is computationally challenging due to the joint appearance of a lagged endogenous variable and the unobserved heterogeneity which requires modelling of initial conditions as described in Heckman (1981). We test for the joint significance of the state dummy variables in a way that can be viewed as an interesting alternative to the Hausman procedure. This was important for our analysis since, as sometimes happens in finite samples, the estimated variance–covariance matrix was not positive semi-definite. We found that the predicted probability of starting a business is 25% higher in states with higher bankruptcy exemptions than their neighbours relative to states with lower exemptions than their neighbours.

Un modèle spatial de l'impact des lois sur la faillite sur la création d'entreprises

Résumé La présente communication emploie des techniques d’économétrie spatiale pour évaluer l'impact de la réglementation en matière de faillite sur la constitution de petites entreprises. L'estimation du modèle pose des difficultés sur le plan computationnel en raison de l'apparition conjointe d'une variable endogène décalée et de l'hétérogénéité non observée, qui rend nécessaire la modélisation de conditions initiales, de la façon décrite par Heckman (1981). Nous testons la signification conjointe des variables indicatrices de l’état d'une façon qui peut être considérée comme une alternative intéressante à la procédure de Hausman. Ceci était important pour notre analyse, car, comme nous le relevons parfois dans des échantillons finis, la matrice variance–covariance estimée n’était pas semi-définie positive. Nous en concluons que la probabilité prévisible du lancement d'une affaire est plus élevée de l'ordre de 25% dans les états qui appliquent des exemptions pour les faillites supérieures à celles des pays avoisinants, par rapport aux états qui appliquent des exemptions inférieures à celles de leurs voisins.

Un modelo espacial del impacto de la ley de bancarrotas sobre las iniciativas empresariales

Résumén Este artículo emplea técnicas de econometría espacial para estimar el impacto de las normativas de bancarrotas sobre la formación de empresas pequeñas. La valoración del modelo es computacionalmente desafiante, debido a la aparición conjunta de una variable endógena rezagada y heterogeneidad inadvertida que requieren la modelación de las condiciones iniciales, como se describe en Heckman (1981). Ensayamos la significancia conjunta de las variables de prueba estatales de una forma que puede percibirse como una alternativa interesante al procedimiento Hausman. Esto fue importante para nuestro análisis, ya que, como ocurre a veces con muestras finitas, la matriz estimada de varianza–covarianza no fue semidefinitiva positiva. Descubrimos que la probabilidad predicha de iniciar un negocio es un 25% mayor en los estados con mayores exenciones de bancarrota que sus vecinos, en relación con estados con menos exenciones que sus vecinos.

     

Nonparametric density estimates consistent of the order of <Emphasis Type=\"Italic\">n</Emphasis><Superscript>−1/2</Superscript> in the <Emphasis Type=\"Italic\">L</Emphasis><Subscript>1</Subscript>–norm

We introduce an approximate minimum Kolmogorov distance density estimate of a probability density f₀ on the real line and study its rate of consistency for n. We define a degree of variations of a nonparametric family of densities containing the unknown f₀. If this degree is finite then the approximate minimum Kolmogorov distance estimate is consistent of the order of n^–1/2 in the L₁-norm and also in the expected L₁-norm. Comparisons with two other criteria leading to the same order of consistency are given.Received June 2002     

Method-of-moment view of linear simultaneous equation systems

In this paper, we review the modern method-of-moment-based approaches to identification and estimation of linear simultaneous equation systems. First, we present the rank condition for the structural form (SF) parameter identification. The rank condition comes naturally and is much easier to understand than that in the conventional reduced-form-based indirect approach. Then, we show how to estimate all SF parameters jointly (in a single step) with method-of-moment estimators. As it turns out, using only unconditional moments, but not any conditional moments, greatly simplifies the identification and estimation issues, and makes light work of conveying the essential ideas involved.     

Weighted least squares estimators in possibly misspecified nonlinear regression

The behavior of estimators for misspecified parametric models has been well studied. We consider estimators for misspecified nonlinear regression models, with error and covariates possibly dependent. These models are described by specifying a parametric model for the conditional expectation of the response given the covariates. This is a parametric family of conditional constraints, which makes the model itself close to nonparametric. We study the behavior of weighted least squares estimators both when the regression function is correctly specified, and when it is misspecified and also involves possible additional covariates.     

基于贝叶斯结构方程模型的城际铁路客运需求影响因素分析

作为城市群区域间的连接纽带,城际铁路是社会经济快速发展的基础。研究城际铁路客运需求的影响机理,对于掌握城际铁路客运量分布特征和变化规律具有十分重要的现实意义。通过分析城际铁路客运需求的相关影响因素及相互作用关系,建立基于贝叶斯参数估计的结构方程模型。以长三角与珠三角地区城市群为案例,分析交通运输设施、运输成本以及经济状况等潜在变量对城际铁路客运需求的影响。结果显示,在直接影响层面,经济状况对两地区城际铁路客运需求影响最为显著,而在综合影响层面,交通运输设施对城际铁路客运需求的影响最为显著。     

二项式系列题目类解初探

二次函数是中学数学的重要内容之一,和它相关的内容,如:二次方程、二次不等式、二次三项式及二次函数的图像,构成了一个体系,称之为"二次式系列";本文主要在以下三个方面对这些题目的解法进行探讨:(一)求参数的范围;(二)根的存在情况的判别;(三)求最大、最小值;通过以上的讨论,以期提高中学生对此类题目的解题方法和解题技巧。     

Analysis of variance on indirectly measured variables

Abstract  When observations from a normal distribution can only be obtained indirectly by counting the number of subjects responding to a previously chosen dose, parameter estimates can be obtained by using probit analysis. Well-known is the maximum likelihood technique of parameter estimation, less known is the approach by weighted least squares. The latter approach is followed to compare the parameters of several normal distributions by testing their equality, in analogy with the analysis of variance. A practical situation gave rise to this study and it is worked out at the end of the paper.     

Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models

Several empirical studies have documented that the signs of excess stock returns are, to some extent, predictable. In this paper, we consider the predictive ability of the binary dependent dynamic probit model in predicting the direction of monthly excess stock returns. The recession forecast obtained from the model for a binary recession indicator appears to be the most useful predictive variable, and once it is employed, the sign of the excess return is predictable in-sample. The new dynamic “error correction” probit model proposed in the paper yields better out-of-sample sign forecasts, with the resulting average trading returns being higher than those of either the buy-and-hold strategy or trading rules based on ARMAX models.     

基于联立方程模型的货物周转量与GDP的计量关系分析

通过建立联立方程模型,对货物周转量与国内生产总值之间的关系进行定量研究,用Eviews3.1软件对模型采用二阶段最小二乘法（2SLS）进行参数估计,并进行统计意义检验和历史模拟及事后预测,得出模型符合经济意义,可用于货物周转量的预测。     

Does gender diversity matter for green innovation?

This study empirically investigated the relationship between board gender diversity and firm's green innovation, using panel data of public companies of China's manufacturing. Green product innovation was assessed by “green” patents and green process innovation assessed by environmental management certification. The endogeneity problem that resulted from self‐selection of gender diversity was addressed by means of extended probit regressions with an instrumental variable, and the instrumental variable was elaborately constructed based on changes in directorships. The findings show that occurrence of green innovation at the firm‐level is systematically related to female board representation. Specifically, women can exert a sizable and positive effect on green innovation, once they enjoy at least two seats on the boards; a further increase in representation of women on the boards can increase the likelihood of green product innovation rather than the likelihood of green process innovation. These results were robust to various regression specifications and alternative samples. The study provides empirical evidence that women at the top management can play a positive role in developing firm's active environmental strategies, and the conclusions are of practical implications for improving corporate governance along the environmental dimension.     

A note on estimation based on record data

In data-processing standpoint, an efficient algorithm for identifying the minimum value among a set of measurements are record statistics. From a sequence of n independent identically distributed continuous random variables only about log(n) records are expected, so we expect to have little data, hence any prior information is welcome (Houchens, Record value theory and inference, Ph.D. thesis, University of California, Riverside, 1984). In this paper, non-Bayesian and Bayesian estimates are derived for the two parameters of the Exponential distribution based on record statistics with respect to the squared error and Linear-Exponential loss functions and then compared with together. The admissibility of some estimators is discussed.