A Multivariate Evaluation of Ex ante Risks Associated with Fed Cattle Production

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate production risks faced by fed cattle producers. We do this by jointly modeling a group of cattle production yield risk factors using a multivariate dynamic regression model. The proposed econometric model estimates parameters that influence the mean and variance of production yield factors, as well as the covariance between variables, while accounting for a high degree of censoring through the use of a dynamic multivariate Tobit model. The model provides insights into the relationship between production yield factors in fed cattle production.     

油田累积产油量统计建模——以河南油田为例

通过对河南油田某些断块累积产油量构建统计模型,证明统计模型在油田产油量预测中应用的有效性。针对研究区内不同区块累积产油量数据的统计特征,分别采用了时间序列分析,多元线性回归分析方法进行研究。结果表明,统计建模方法构建的累积产油量模型能达到较好的模拟效果。     

FACTOR SUBSTITUTION IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE

Studies of the ease of substitution between inputs in production have generally been carried out within a production framework of an explicit functional form. In this study, a somewhat different approach is followed. A model of derived demand for primary factors of production, land, labour and capital is formulated to enable inferences to be made about the characteristics of the unspecified production function. The model is used to obtain estimates of the pairwise Allen-Uzawa substitution elasticities which are secondary parameters of the underlying production function. The reported FIML estimates from aggregate time series data for the period 1920/21 to 1969/70 indicate very low and marginally different substitution elasticities between different pairs of factors, suggesting that both the Cobb-Douglas and CES production function specifications for the Australian agricultural sector are inappropriate.     

Specification and Estimation of Production Risk, Risk Preferences and Technical Efficiency

This article deals with specification and estimation of risk preferences, production risk, and technical inefficiency. It makes contribution in three separate areas of production economics. First, we model producers' attitude toward risk and derive risk preference functions (without assuming any parametric form of the utility function and any distribution of the error term representing production risk) when risk arises from production uncertainty and technical inefficiency. Second, the standard production risk model is extended to accommodate technical inefficiency and producers' attitude toward risk. Finally, the technical efficiency model is generalized to accommodate production risk and producers' attitude toward risk.     

ESTIMATION OF A PRODUCTION FRONTIER MODEL: WITH APPLICATION TO THE PASTORAL ZONE OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA

This paper considers a statistical model for a production frontier that is consistent with the traditional (nonstochastic) definition of a production function given in microeconomic theory. Limiting cases of the model are the familiar average production function and an envelope production function. Maximum-likelihood estimators for the parameters of the model are defined. The three related models are applied in the estimation of a production frontier for the Pastoral Zone of Eastern Australia with use of data from the Australian Grazing Industry Survey.     

Land rents as a criterion for regionalization—The case of wheat growing in Croatia

The paper explores and tests one of the contemporary principles of economic regionalization of agriculture by using differential land rents in wheat production as a model. The analysis is based upon the assumption that differential rents could serve as a valid principle for regional planning, particularly differential rent I. On the basis of the food self-sufficiency principle declared by the Rome Declaration on World Food Security, the model assesses the economic justification of the Croatian wheat incentives system in relation to wheat production potentials in the counties, starting from those with high potential (the most favourable agroecological conditions for wheat production) towards the counties with low potential, to the level of self-sufficiency as a long-term Croatian strategic vision.The model shows that Croatia can meet its requirements for industrial wheat processing at the level of cumulative farmland areas of three counties, while total consumption can be covered by production of eight counties. This model compromises the fundamental principle of regional economics of wheat production, because up to 2003 incentives were given for 78,000 ha more than what was economically justified for wheat production intended for industrial processing, i.e. for 19,000 ha for total wheat demand. But, wheat production is practised all over Croatia—in all agricultural regions because of tradition on the one side and crop rotation requirements on the other side. This conclusion points to an uneconomic allocation of budget funds for wheat incentives to the counties, whose output results do not justify the incentives. The current subsidy model stimulates production by applying the criterion of a minimum three-hectare area required for wheat incentives. Consequently, a part of wheat production is excluded from the incentive system in the counties with high potential farmland, i.e. in the counties collecting a differential land rent for wheat production, which is uneconomical in terms of macroeconomics.Even though the model featured in this paper exemplifies wheat production in this particular situation, it can be easily used to evaluate the efficiency of incentives for all the crops included in the incentive system, while applying the standards of economics and agricultural regionalization. It can also be used to determine subsequent, more economical distribution of production incentives by channelling uneconomically allocated budget funds into implementation of other agricultural policies and measures.     

Separability in farm-household economics: an experiment with linear programming

The assumption of separability between farm-household production and consumption facilitates analysis, but entails several important restrictions. The implications of assuming separability are discussed here in relation to the modelling of a representative Tongan farm-household. Econometric estimation of household demand is coupled with a linear programming (LP) model of farm-household production. When analysing consumer demand, separable farm-household economics is undoubtedly preferable to ignoring the production/consumption linkages entirely. However, the restrictions which must be imposed on the production side of the separable model are such that a realistic LP solution is unlikely to be obtained. This is likely to be a major deterrent to adopting the separable approach for studies in which the main focus is on production rather than consumption.     

土地流转、要素配置与农业生产效率改进

研究目的:基于2005—2017年省际面板数据,分析土地流转对农业生产效率的影响,并从要素错配角度研究土地流转如何影响农业生产要素配置进而改善总体效率。研究方法:时变SFA模型、固定效应Tobit模型和中介效应模型。研究结果:(1)土地流转总体上显著提高了农业生产效率;(2)土地流转对农业生产效率的影响在不同地区、确权前后表现出异质性特征,其效果的发挥既依赖于土地流转市场的发育程度,也依赖于对土地权利的有效保护;(3)土地流转主要通过纠正劳动力错配来提高农业生产效率,而对土地错配状况的纠正作用有限。研究结论:加强土地流转市场建设不仅可以提高农业生产效率,而且能改善农业要素投入尤其是劳动力要素的错配状况并进而改善总体效率。     

PRODUCTION CHOICE IN THE ENGLAND AND WALES DAIRY SECTOR

This paper seeks to develop the understanding of the ways in which factors other than price influence the production decisions of dairy farmers. A theoretical model based on a profit function is used to emphasise the way in which changes in the farm's technological environment will influence its production choices. The theoretical model is used as the basis of an empirical study of production choice in the England and Wales dairy sector. Elasticities and factor biases are reported.     

Estimating random effects production function models with selectivity bias: an application to Swedish crop producers

In this paper, the estimation of production functions and measurement of the rate of technical change is performed when selectivity bias is expected. A sample selection model consisting of a selection and a regression equation is estimated using Heckman's two-stage method. It is discussed in the context of a production function where the underlying technology is represented by a translog functional form. For the regression, a random effects model with heteroscedastic variances is assumed. This model and an alternative conventional model retaining heteroscedasticity without considering selectivity bias are estimated using the Generalized Least Squares method. The data used are a large rotating panel data set from Swedish crop producers over the period 1976–1988. The empirical results from the comparison between these two models show that the introduction of heteroscedasticity and the integration of sample selection in the production relationship is important. The impact of a correction for selectivity bias on the results, in terms of input elasticities and returns to scale is found to be significant.     

广东省县域农业生产效率分析——基于2015-2019年揭阳市5县域DEA模型为例

农业生产效率提升是实现农业现代化的重要手段。本文以《揭阳市统计年鉴(2015-2019)》的农业相关数据,从县域的视角研究揭阳市农业生产效率,运用DEA模型对揭阳市5个县域的3个投入指标和1个产出指标进行实证分析。结果显示,2015-2019年揭阳市农业生产效率均属于DEA无效,总体效率提升并不明显,且各县域呈现发展不平衡的状态,仅惠来县位于生产前沿面上,普宁市的农业生产效率最低,规模报酬属于递减态势。因此,恰逢“十四五”谋划之时,对揭阳市各县域农业生产效率做出分析研究,为现阶段提升揭阳市农业生产效率提出有参考价值的建议,为广东省县域农业生产效率分析提供范本。     

湖北省粮食生产时空变化及灰色关联动态分析

以湖北省2001—2015年县域和省域粮食生产数据为基础,运用粮食产量重心模型揭示了湖北省粮食生产时空变化特征,在此基础上建立粮食生产与相关因素的灰色关联模型,并对驱动因素进行了分析。结果表明:2001—2015年湖北省粮食总产量和人均粮食产量动态变化趋势一致,总体上呈上升态势,2001—2003年快速下降,2003—2015年连续增长,粮食产量变化最直接的原因是粮食播种面积的变化。2001—2015年粮食产量重心一直在京山县境内移动,但整体上向北偏东52.31°方向移动了11.82km。粮食产量与7个因素显著相关,其中有效灌溉面积、粮食单位面积产量、粮食作物播种面积和农药使用量是湖北省粮食生产的四大驱动因素。     

Decoupling Direct Payments and the Dynamics of Decisions under Price Risk in Cattle Farms

The impact of decoupling direct payments from production on producers' decisions, taking account of price uncertainty and risk aversion, is analysed through a multi‐period mathematical programming model. This model is applied to beef cattle farms in two French regions: Limousin and Pays de la Loire. The technical coefficients are represented by an engineering production function estimated for both regions. The behavioural parameters have been obtained through a survey and model calibration. Policy changes have been modelled through different simulation scenarios relating to the decoupling of direct payments. Model results show that decoupling policies produce a more homogenous response from different types of farmers. The share of cattle activities on farms decreases and the production techniques become less intensive.     

Regulating Nitrogen Pollution with Risk Averse Farmers under Hidden Information and Moral Hazard

We consider a model of pollution regulation for a risk averse farmer involving hidden information, moral hazard, and risk-sharing. The representative farmer faces a production risk originating from nitrogen leaching, and privately observes the soil capacity in retaining nitrogen only after the regulation contract is signed. The latter specifies a transfer and a nitrogen quota, whose decomposition by the farmer among different production stages is unknown to the regulator. We first characterize the optimal solution to the regulator's problem. The sequential decision model is estimated on French crop production data, and the results are used to calibrate and simulate the optimal contract.     

Environmental Externalities,Comparative Advantage,and the Location of Production: An Application to the Canadian Dairy Industry

The traditional theory of comparative advantage has not been well integrated with the theories of externalities and location. In this paper we develop a conceptual framework which undertakes such an integration at the firm and regional levels. We call this the General Equilibrium with Individual Spatial Heterogeneity and Externalities (GEISHE) model. We use the model to study the effect of spatial heterogeneity in emission intensity on the spatial distribution of production under a uniform emission standard. This model suggests that the introduction of an emission restriction can have differential effects on the spatial patterns of production, depending on local production intensity. We also present empirical analysis of intraprovincial movement of production for the Canadian dairy industry using 1996 and 2006 Census data. Ceteris paribus, areas that had higher dairy production intensities in 1996 also tended to experience higher declines in their dairy cow populations between 1996 and 2006, which is consistent with the GEISHE model. These results suggest that environmental pressure may change the patterns of comparative advantage within a supply managed industry, even if relocation of production across provincial boundaries is not permitted. Expression of environmental comparative advantages seems to be taking place within provinces.     

A FARM GROWTH MODEL FOR POLICY ANALYSIS IN AN EXTENSIVE PASTORAL PRODUCTION SYSTEM

The development of a simulation model of an extensive pastoral farming system to assist analysts in their assessment of government policy measures is described. The model was designed to simulate, over a number of years, the physical and financial operation of a sheep and beef production system typically found in the North Island hill country of New Zealand. By manipulating model parameters and data related to prices, costs, taxation and credit, a range of policies can be represented and their effects simulated. The model is used to undertake an ex post analysis of the farm-level impact of the supplementary minimum price scheme in New Zealand and to project farm performance following the abolition of the scheme. Consideration is given to the use of the model to represent sheep and beef production systems elsewhere.     

农业技术培训、经营规模对农业生产效率的影响——以水稻栽培技术为例

目的 提高农业生产效率是推进农业现代化建设的重要指标。方法 文章基于江西省512份微观调研数据测算出农户的农业生产效率,运用Tobit模型、PSM模型以及分位数回归模型分析了农业技术培训、经营规模对农业生产效率的影响。结果 研究结果表明,农业技术培训对农业生产效率的提高具有显著促进作用,且参与农业技术培训可使农户的农业生产效率提高9.32%;不同经营规模农户参与农业技术培训对农业生产效率的提升效应存在差异,规模户提升效应为28.18%,显著高于小农户的6.97%;农地经营规模对农户农业生产效率具有显著影响,并呈现出“倒U型”关系;农业技术培训、经营规模对不同分位点的农户农业生产效率均具有显著正向作用,并有递增趋势,同时对高效率组的促进作用要明显高于低效率组的农户。结论 政府应积极拓宽农业技术推广渠道,加快转变技术推广方式,同时鼓励适度规模经营,进一步提高农户农业生产效率。     

Medium-term EU integration impacts on Norwegian agriculture: A partial equilibrium analysis

The paper analyses and discusses possible impacts on Norwegian agriculture of an EU membership based on the regionalized agricultural sector model CAPRI. Norwegian agriculture is characterized by a small-scale farming structure and high levels of support. Previous analyses have shown that Norwegian agriculture is expected to undergo dramatic changes because of EU membership in terms of farm income, production and structural change. Our study indicates that a substantial share of the agricultural production can be maintained at the national level. Milk and crop production may remain largely unaffected, while meat production decreases in the range of 10-20% compared to a reference run without membership. However, a reduction in total farm income by about 40% indicates that structural adjustments will follow EU accession. The results are discussed in view of the pattern of adjustments observed in Finland and Austria after EU accession in 1995. The need for the dairy industry to take advantage of the improved market access is stressed. Attention is also called to some strengths and limitations of the CAPRI model to analyse large-scale policy changes and to identify model improvements as an area of future research.     

生态文明建设背景财政扶持、林权改革对林业生产效率的影响

基于2000—2016年中国省际面板数据,利用DEA-Malmquist指数法对中国林业生产效率的区域差异和时序变化进行研究,运用面板Tobit模型检验财政扶持对林业生产效率的影响并验证林权改革对二者关系的调节作用。研究发现:在生态文明建设背景下,林业生产效率存在显著的区域差异;技术进步对于全要素生产率的提升起到重要推进作用;财政扶持与林权改革均对林业生产效率产生了正向影响,但林权改革并没有对财政扶持与林业生产效率的关系产生积极调节作用。因此,各省份应当通过加大政府扶持力度、优化投资方式、深化集体林权制度改革等措施促进林业生产效率提升。     

FARM HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION IN THE PRESENCE OF RESTRICTIONS ON DEBT: THEORY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

In this paper a two period life cycle model of the farm household is constructed allowing for production and restrictions on debt in which the consumption and production decisions of the farm household are simultaneous. It is shown that the farm household's production responses to exogenous changes may be qualitatively different to that predicted by the profit-maximising model when all markets are perfect. In particular, when the household is debt constrained, ‘perverse’ output effects are possible with output increasing in response to output price decreases. Further, for such households, compensation payments will have production effects. Finally, the financial situation of the farm has an impact on production for debt constrained farms.