Automatic selection of unobserved components models for supply chain forecasting

For many companies, automatic forecasting has come to be an essential part of business analytics applications. The large amounts of data available, the short life-cycle of the analysis and the acceleration of business operations make traditional manual data analysis unfeasible in such environments. In this paper, an automatic forecasting support system that comprises several methods and models is developed in a general state space framework built in the SSpace toolbox written for Matlab. Some of the models included are well-known, such as exponential smoothing and ARIMA, but we also propose a new model family that has been used only very rarely in this context, namely unobserved components models. Additional novelties include the use of unobserved components models in an automatic identification environment and the comparison of their forecasting performances with those of exponential smoothing and ARIMA models estimated using different software packages. The new system is tested empirically on a daily dataset of all of the products sold by a franchise chain in Spain (166 products over a period of 517 days). The system works well in practice and the proposed automatic unobserved components models compare very favorably with other methods and other well-known software packages in forecasting terms.     

Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects

Demand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP), but the effects of sales promotions can be difficult to forecast. Typically, a baseline statistical forecast is judgmentally adjusted on receipt of information from different departments. However, much of this information either has no predictive value or its value is unknown. Research into base rate discounting has suggested that such information may distract forecasters from the average uplift and reduce accuracy. This has been investigated in situations in which forecasters were able to adjust the statistical forecasts for promotions via a forecasting support system (FSS). In two ecologically valid experiments, forecasters were provided with the mean level of promotion uplift, a baseline statistical forecast, and quantitative and qualitative information. However, the forecasters were distracted from the base rate and misinterpreted the information available to them. These findings have important implications for the design of organizational S&OP processes, and for the implementation of FSSs.     

Perspectives on risk management in supply chains

Managing risk in supply chains is an important topic in supply chain management. The topic's importance is due to several industry trends currently in place: increase in strategic outsourcing by firms, globalizations of markets, increasing reliance on suppliers for specialized capabilities and innovation, reliance on supply networks for competitive advantage, and emergence of information technologies that make it possible to control and coordinate extended supply chains. This article identifies some important aspects of risk management in supply chains and summarizes the four articles that are in this special issue. This emerging area of research interest deserves considerable attention and it is our hope that the articles in this special issue would spur additional research on this important topic.     

Effects of enterprise technology on supply chain collaboration: analysis of China-linked supply chain

Supply chain collaboration has received increasing attention from scholars and practitioners in recent years. However, our understanding of how enterprise information technology facilitates supply chain collaboration is still very limited, especially with regard to Chinese enterprise ownerships such as state-owned firms, joint-venture firms and local village-owned firms. This paper extends the theory established in enterprise information technology (IT) and supply chain collaboration literature and relates it with coordination in China-linked supply chain. Drawing upon an empirical study from 177 Chinese companies, we provide three major findings: (i) uncovered the importance of leveraging enterprise IT through supply chain collaboration; (ii) identified the relationship between enterprise ownership and enterprise technology use and supply chain collaboration in China-linked supply chain and (iii) illustrated effects of supply chain collaborative activities on operational and market performance.     

Strategic management perspectives on supply chain

In the second decade of the twenty-first century, supply chain management (SCM) practices have gained an increasingly strategic character. The focus has shifted from an operational perspective to a strategic one, and SCM is repeatedly cited in the literature as a strategic management tool with a profound effect on the survival of the organizations. SCM domain is well-supported to be closely linked with a number of strategic management views and theories. This study investigates the main strategic management views and theories relevant to SCM and their interactions. It reveals how they complementarily explain supply chain management characteristics of being customer-driven, process-oriented, global, strategically coupled, complex, dynamic, adaptive, multi-agent, IT-intensive, value creating, collaborative and networked. Based on a comprehensive literature taxonomy, a mapping of the main supply chain characteristics to these management views and theories is provided. A conceptual clustering of different management perspectives is developed, and their interactions are analyzed.

     

Gaining sustainable development by green supply chain innovation: Perspectives of specific investments and stakeholder engagement

Despite general attention has been given to sustainable development and green innovation, little empirical effort has been made to explore the factors influencing green innovation performance in the context of supply chain relationships, especially in emerging countries like China. To address this research gap, from the perspectives of specific investments, we examine the role of specific investments in relation to the outcome of green supply chain innovation. Drawing on knowledge management theory, we propose that knowledge transfer plays a mediating role underlying the relationship. On the basis of the stakeholder involvement theory, we argue that partner social responsibility plays moderating roles not only in specific investments—green supply chain innovation performance link—but also in the link of knowledge transfer and performance. We tested the proposed relationships with a sample consisted of 331 questionnaires and validated responses from 187 high‐tech firms in China. The results generally support the proposed hypotheses, and the integrative model—moderated mediation—is also supported. As such, this study contributes to understand about how specific investments affect the performance of green supply chain innovation, providing new insights on stakeholder involvement and knowledge transfer in green supply chain innovation management.     

Stability in the inefficient use of forecasting systems: A case study in a supply chain company

Computer-based demand forecasting systems have been widely adopted in supply chain companies, but little research has studied how these systems are actually used in the forecasting process. We report the findings of a case study of demand forecasting in a pharmaceutical company over a 15-year period. At the start of the study, managers believed that they were making extensive use of their forecasting system that was marketed based on the accuracy of its advanced statistical methods. Yet most forecasts were obtained using the system’s facility for judgmentally overriding the automatic statistical forecasts. Carrying out the judgmental interventions involved considerable management effort as part of a sales & operations planning (S&OP) process, yet these often only served to reduce forecast accuracy. This study uses observations of the forecasting process, interviews with participants and data on the accuracy of forecasts to investigate why the managers continued to use non-normative forecasting practices for many years despite the potential economic benefits that could be achieved through change. The reasons for the longevity of these practices are examined both from the perspective of the individual forecaster and the organization as a whole.     

Customer-facing supply chain practices—The impact of demand and distribution management on supply chain success

Traditionally, distribution has been viewed as the key (physical) link between a company's internal supply chain activities and its customers. More recently, demand management has emerged as a new dimension at the customer interface. Although it has become increasing popular in industry, it has not yet been analyzed in depth with respect to its impact on supply chain performance. Both distribution management and demand management entail customer-facing processes and practices and that are interrelated and (may) jointly determine supply chain performance. In this paper we seek to extend the stream of research in supply chain management by systematically investigating the impact of customer-facing supply chain practices on supply chain performance. Specifically, the paper examines the relative impact of relevant practices associated with demand and distribution management. To this end, we collected data from 116 multi-national companies based in Europe and analyzed it using structural equation modeling techniques. Our results suggest that (i) high demand management performance has a substantial positive impact on the overall supply chain performance, (ii) this effect is stronger than that of distribution management performance, and (iii) there is no evidence that demand management might be an enabler for effective distribution management. Among the individual practices that constitute demand and distribution management, adherence to the demand and distribution management processes and demand segmentation emerged as the strongest performance levers. Based upon additional in-depth interviews conducted with selected companies from our sample, we shed light on some of the most important findings that emerged from our survey analysis.     

Structural drivers of upstream supply chain complexity and the frequency of supply chain disruptions

A great deal of research has focused on supply chain risk management, but the question “Which supply chain characteristics increase the frequency of supply chain disruptions?” has not received much attention from empirical research. This is a relevant question, because firms seek stability in their operations, and therefore managers need to know how the structure of their supply chains affects the occurrence of disruptions. The present study addresses this issue with a specific focus on upstream supply chain (supply-side) disruptions. Drawing on the literature on supply chain complexity, we devise and test a model that predicts the frequency of supply chain disruptions based on a multi-dimensional conceptualization of upstream supply chain complexity. Not only do the empirical findings suggest that all of the three investigated complexity drivers – horizontal, vertical, and spatial complexity – increase the frequency of disruptions, but also that they interact and amplify each other's effects in a synergistic fashion.     

军事供应链管理系列连载之二军事供应链的基本内涵

军事供应链目前尚未形成统一的定义，笔者认为军事供应链是围绕军事物资供应部门，从军事物资生产开始，经由筹措、运输、储备、维修保养、配送等军事物资供应环节，将军事物资供应商、第三方物流企业、军事物资供应部门、各级军事物流基地（或中心）直到部队最终用户连成一个整体的功能网链结构模式。     

军事供应链管理系列连载之四实施军事供应链管理的可行性研究

军事供应链管理是一个全新的研究领域,也是新军事后勤变革的重要组成部分,它的系统集成、整体优化、资源整合、信息共享、扁平化管理、非核心业务外包、配送式保障、军事供应链战略合作伙伴等先进理念必将对我军大联勤改革提供新的思路.经过多年的理论研究和实践探索,实施军事供应链管理已具有一定的可行性.     

基于突发事件的供应链恢复能力研究

随着市场竞争的日益激烈,在突发事件发生以后,企业如何从遭到的破坏中迅速恢复,提高供应链的恢复能力已成为人们非常关注的问题。通过分析突发事件的表现形式,以及供应链安全的关键要素,提出提高供应链恢复能力的方法,以实现供应链安全。     

供应链构建的博弈分析

文章在供应链吸纳新成员的博弈分析中,建立了一个支付博弈矩阵,根据纳什均衡的必要条件,确定了目标企业的范围,并从中选择最优企业。在供应链整合期,应用负激励模型约束成员企业的违约行为,同时指出,供应链企业在重复博弈中,运用可信承诺、触发策略可限制企业的机会主义行为,从而供应链企业可以形成长期的合作关系。     

供应链构建的博弈分析

文章在供应链吸纳新成员的博弈分析中,建立了一个支付博弈矩阵,根据纳什均衡的必要条件,确定了目标企业的范围,并从中选择最优企业.在供应链整合期,应用负激励模型约束成员企业的违约行为,同时指出,供应链企业在重复博弈中,运用可信承诺、触发策略可限制企业的机会主义行为,从而供应链企业可以形成长期的合作关系.     

论企业的生态化供应链管理

随着全球性环保意识的高涨,对产品环保性要求日益强烈,供应链体系也因此发生了很大的变化,只有把环境问题和环保理念融入整个供应链,建立合理科学的生态化供应链管理模式,才能迎接接踵而来的生态化浪潮的挑战。     

中国地区供应链网络优化案例

项目背景 某世界500强食品企业于1984年进入中国，2005年在中国的南方、北方以及华东地区有8家生产各种食品的工厂，大约98％的产品通过经销商分销。该公司在中国市场的业务发展高速增长，其两种细分产品在中国市场占据领导者的地位。但近几年，国际竞争对手强势进入中国市场，而本土的领导厂商也在投资上加大力度，使该公司感受到不小的压力。     

Inventory management within the supply chain

How can a company reduce its inventory costs as much as 35 to 50% of its current assets? The key to reducing inventory is to evaluate the entire supply chain, including an assessment of procurement, production, and distribution.     

基于供应链规划的生产安排仿真决策

以某电缆生产企业D公司为例,研究其基于供应链整体规划的理念,根据对现实生产中存在的相关生产因素不确定的情况进行数学描述,编写出仿真算法,并用EXCEL构建其数学仿真模型,进而在分析仿真数据的基础上得到合理的仿真结果,并阐述该模型的实用价值和推广意义,为生产安排决策提供参考依据。     

供应链物流网络优化

自20世纪90年代以来,供应链和供应链管理的概念逐步兴起.供应链围绕核心企业,对信息流、物流、资金流的控制,从采购原材料开始,制成中间产品及最终产品,最后由销售网络把产品送到消费者手中,在此过程中将供应商、制造商、分销商、零售商直到最终用户连成一个整体的功能网络结构模式即供应链.供应链的发展大至经历了三个阶段:企业内部供应链、产业供应链或动态联盟供应链、全球网络供应链.