The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market

This study examines the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and housing price at the macro-level in China as a developing country. The empirical evidence indicates that EPU has a leading effect on China’s housing market. In general, the housing market is prosperous when economic policy is stable and there is a positive relationship between housing price variation and EPU, which means housing market risk grows under unstable economic policies in this developing economy. Moreover, economic policy variation affects low-amplitude changes in housing prices. A variation of policy uncertainty enhances the risk premium of the housing market. By contrast, the level of EPU influences high-amplitude changes in housing prices, which reflects the trend of EPU dominating China's housing market.     

Unconventional monetary policy and the stock market’s reaction to Federal Reserve policy actions

We examine the change in the effect of Federal Reserve’s policy actions on stock returns after the Fed started to use unconventional policy actions. We find that the response of stock returns to monetary policy actions are almost seven times higher after the federal funds rate hit the zero lower bound. We conduct additional analysis to examine the underlying causes of the increase in the impact of monetary policy actions of stock returns. We show that investors rebalance their portfolios towards equity after selling Treasury securities to the Federal Reserve during large scale asset purchases.     

Effects of foreign aid on the recipient country’s economic growth

We introduce an infinite-horizon endogenous growth framework for studying the effects of foreign aid on the economic growth in a recipient country. Aid is used to partially finance the recipient’s public investment. We point out that the same rule of aid may have very different outcomes, depending on the recipient’s circumstances in terms of development level, domestic investment, efficiency in the use of aid and in public investment, etc. Foreign aid may promote growth in the recipient country, but the global dynamics of equilibrium are complex (because of the non-monotonicity and steady state multiplicity). The economy may converge to a steady state or grow without bounds. Moreover, there are rooms for the divergence and a two-period cycle. We characterize conditions under which each scenario takes place. Our analysis contributes to the debate on the nexus between aid and economic growth and in particular on the conditionality of aid effects.     

The risk spillover between China’s economic policy uncertainty and commodity markets: Evidence from frequency spillover and quantile connectedness approaches

Based on the frequency spillover method extended by Baruník and Křehlík (2018), we explore the risk spillover relationship between China’s economic policy uncertainty (CNEPU) and commodity futures in different frequency domains with daily settlement price data of 14 commodity futures in China. The results show that the risk spillover relationship between CNEPU and the commodity market mainly occurs in the short term. Quantile connectedness results show that economic policy uncertainty, which mainly plays the role of risk transmitter, is more closely related to the commodity market during the market boom and recession. Soybeans, soybean meal, and corn have shown high investment value in the process of market recovery, which is exposed to less risk spillover from policy uncertainty. Finally, the economic crisis with different characteristics will have specific impacts on asymmetric risk spillovers based on certain impact mechanisms.     

On the distribution of the desirability index using Harrington’s desirability function

The concept of desirability is a means for complexity reduction of multivariate quality optimization. This paper provides a theoretical breakthrough regarding desirability indices, which application fields were formerly limited primarily by the lack of its distribution. Focussed are the distributions of Harrington’s desirability functions and different types of the desirability index.     

Forecasting Australia’s economic performance during the Asian crisis

During the Asian economic crisis of 1997–98, published forecasts from a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model consistently indicated that the crisis would have little or no effect on Australia’s economic performance, despite the deterioration in the trade balance. The worsening trade deficit led many other forecasters to predict a sharp fall in Australia’s GDP growth rate, as the countries most severely affected by the crisis represent over 60 percent of Australia’s export markets. This paper argues that the more pessimistic forecasts attached too much weight to the links between Australia’s external accounts and GDP growth. In particular, I show that forecasts for the period September 1997 to December 1998, conditional on the actual path of the merchandise trade balance, predict higher inflation and interest rates than unconditional forecasts from a model without the trade balance. There does, however, appear to be useful information in the individual components of the trade deficit. Conditioning on the actual paths of both exports and imports generally produces more accurate forecasts than conditioning on net exports. In particular, conditioning on the trade balance results in the least accurate forecasts for inflation and interest rates of any of the models considered here. On the other hand, conditioning on the individual trade flows produces the most accurate forecasts for inflation, and the second-most accurate for interest rates. Taken together, the results presented here lend support to the argument that Australia’s trade flows represent the outcomes of optimizing decisions, rather than defining constraints on economic growth.     

National sovereignty and consumer sovereignty: Some consequences of Brazil’s economic opening

Brazil’s move toward greater openness in its foreign trade and capital account since the 1980s, reflects a weakening of the exercise of national sovereignty for economic objectives. In this paper, we argue that consumer sovereignty has been correspondingly increased. There are costs and benefits to Brazil from both kinds of sovereignty. Increasing constraints on macroeconomic policy making have been accompanied by an increase in the choices open to many individuals. The latter increase, however, has been limited by a highly skewed distribution of income, which has persisted despite the profound changes in economic policy.     

Explaining the Reactions of Swiss Municipalities to The ‘Amalgamation Wave’: At the crossroad of institutional,economic and political pressures

Abstract

Public sector organizations are simultaneously subject to three types of environmental pressure: institutional, economic and political. How do these pressures influence the strategic behaviour of public organizations when confronted with efficiency-oriented reforms? We focus on the strategic behaviour of Swiss municipalities facing the amalgamation wave: a reform characterized by a strong economic rationale. Results confirm that the success of reforms depends not only on its matching with economic underpinnings. It is also necessary to take the political leadership and the responsibility of reform implementation.     

The expatriate’s family as a stakeholder of the firm: a responsibility viewpoint

In this paper we argue for the recognition of the expatriate’s family as a stakeholder of the firm during the expatriation. We demonstrate why the expatriate’s family can be regarded as a stakeholder of the parent company and what kind of a stakeholder the family is. Additionally, we argue that the parent company needs to develop and apply a holistic well-being orientation to show stakeholder responsibility in the international assignment (IA) arena. We apply the theory of stakeholder salience to the IA relationship because it provides a theoretical framework for integrating the family into the expatriation process. Yet this theory does not necessarily provide a framework for assessing the social functioning of expatriates and their family members. Since expatriation often leads to a radical shift in family roles and living circumstances, family members (or indeed the expatriates themselves) cannot replicate all elements of their previous lives in the host country. Therefore, we use the capabilities approach to complete the theoretical framework, as this approach provides an evaluative mechanism which highlights how a socially responsible relationship between the company and the family can be advanced to foster well-being and quality of life for the family members as well as the expatriate, even if their functioning abroad differs from their functioning in their own country.     

The conflict potential of the entrepreneur’s decision-making style in the entrepreneur-investor relationship

While prior research has indicated the importance of conflicts between investors and entrepreneurs, little is known about their causes. We use theory on entrepreneurial decision-making to examine the impact of a founding team’s causal versus effectual decision style on the level of perceived task conflict that founders experience with their venture capitalists. Based on a sample of 141 German ventures, we find that a founding team perceives fewer conflicts when following the causal principle of overcoming the unexpected and the effectual principle of affordable loss.     

On the formal definition of the systems’ interoperability capability: an anthropomorphic approach

The extended view of enterprise information systems in the Internet of Things (IoT) introduces additional complexity to the interoperability problems. In response to this, the problem of systems’ interoperability is revisited by taking into the account the different aspects of philosophy, psychology, linguistics and artificial intelligence, namely by analysing the potential analogies between the processes of human and system communication. Then, the capability to interoperate as a property of the system, is defined as a complex ability to seamlessly sense and perceive a stimulus from its environment (assumingly, a message from any other system), make an informed decision about this perception and consequently, articulate a meaningful and useful action or response, based on this decision. Although this capability is defined on the basis of the existing interoperability theories, the proposed approach to its definition excludes the assumption on the awareness of co-existence of two interoperating systems. Thus, it establishes the links between the research of interoperability of systems and intelligent software agents, as one of the systems’ digital identities.     

Forecasting the M4 competition weekly data: Forecast Pro’s winning approach

Forecast Pro forecasted the weekly series in the M4 competition more accurately than all other entrants. Our approach was to follow the same forecasting process that we recommend to our users. This approach involves determining the Key Performance Metric (KPI), establishing baseline forecasts using our automated expert selection algorithm, reviewing those baseline forecasts and customizing forecasts where needed. This article explores why this approach worked well for weekly data, discusses the applicability of the M4 competition to business forecasting and proposes some potential improvements for future competitions to make them more relevant to business forecasting.     

Ambiguity on the insurer’s side: The demand for insurance

Empirical evidence suggests that ambiguity is prevalent in insurance pricing and underwriting, and that often insurers tend to exhibit more ambiguity than the insured individuals (e.g., Hogarth and Kunreuther, 1989). Motivated by these findings, we consider a problem of demand for insurance indemnity schedules, where the insurer has ambiguous beliefs about the realizations of the insurable loss, whereas the insured is an expected-utility maximizer. We show that if the ambiguous beliefs of the insurer satisfy a property of compatibility with the non-ambiguous beliefs of the insured, then optimal indemnity schedules exist and are monotonic. By virtue of monotonicity, no ex-post moral hazard issues arise at our solutions (e.g., Huberman et al., 1983). In addition, in the case where the insurer is either ambiguity-seeking or ambiguity-averse, we show that the problem of determining the optimal indemnity schedule reduces to that of solving an auxiliary problem that is simpler than the original one in that it does not involve ambiguity. Finally, under additional assumptions, we give an explicit characterization of the optimal indemnity schedule for the insured, and we show how our results naturally extend the classical result of Arrow (1971) on the optimality of the deductible indemnity schedule.     

Estimating the Bank of Mexico’s reaction function in the last three decades: A Bayesian DSGE approach with rolling-windows

This paper uses a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate how Mexico’s central bank has conducted its monetary policy in the period 1995–2019. The main objective of the paper is to document the systematic changes in the Bank of Mexico’s reaction function by analyzing possible shifts in the parameters of the policy rule. The central bank’s policy is modeled using a Taylor rule that relates the nominal interest rate to output, inflation, and the exchange rate. I employ Bayesian computational techniques and conduct rolling-window estimations to explicitly show the transition of the policy coefficients over the sample period. Furthermore, the paper examines the macroeconomic implications of these changes through rolling-window impulse–response functions. The results suggest that the Bank of Mexico’s response to inflation has been steady since 1995, while the response to output and the exchange rate has decreased and stabilized after 2002.     

Analysing the lobby-effect of port competitiveness’ determinants: a stochastic frontier approach

Building upon a formerly performed study on port competitiveness, this article discusses the use of a stochastic frontier model as an interesting novel use to test, identify and correct respondents’ bias by applying it to competitiveness analysis based on perceptions of senior executives. Measuring the importance of competition determinants of seaports, conventionally analyzed using a SWOT-analysis based on (transport) infrastructure as a prime requirement for port activity growth, is an important issue to port management. However, it seems that the “institutional” environment of a seaport is also critical in obtaining a competitive advantage. In Haezendonck et al. (2000 and 2001) those port specific advantages and disadvantages were identified using factor analysis and L1-regression on the perceptions of 75 respondents, all senior executives and experts, through a survey. As regards the results of this study, critiques were formulated on the use of perceptions, often biased due to the political lobbying potential of the results. Since respondents often see independent studies as an opportunity to obtain more or early government subsidies, attract new investment projects or at least highlight the attention on their specific problems and demands, they were prone to underestimating the positive impact of the key success factors of the studied seaport compared to its main rivals, in this case major seaports in the so-called Hamburg–Le Havre competitive range. The purpose of this article is to test the assumption that respondents significantly underestimate the positive impact of port specific advantages and to see which of the respondent subgroups within the 75 respondents sample are more responsible than others for this underestimation. In addition, we argue and demonstrate that the use of a stochastic frontier method is appropriate for this matter. Each of 25 considered competition determinants of the original study is decomposed into a noise and “efficiency” term, based on the Bayesian stochastic frontier model (BSFM). In this article, we find evidence that BSFM could be used to test the “lobby-effect” or underestimation of the real effect of determinants, that terminal operators as a subgroup of respondents, are more likely to underestimate the key success factors than the subgroup of port experts and that those determinants that are directly related to government action show more underestimation than competitiveness determinants that result from private investments.     

“Rulers ruled by women”: an economic analysis of the rise and fall of women’s rights in ancient Sparta

Until modern times, most women possessed relatively few formal rights. The women of ancient Sparta were a striking exception. Although they could not vote, Spartan women reportedly owned 40 percent of Sparta’s agricultural land, and enjoyed other rights that were equally extraordinary. We offer a simple economic explanation for the Spartan anomaly. The defining moment for Sparta was its conquest of a neighboring land and people, which fundamentally changed the marginal products of Spartan men’s and Spartan women’s labor. To exploit the potential gains from a reallocation of labor—specifically, to provide the appropriate incentives and the proper human capital formation—men granted women property (and other) rights. Consistent with our explanation for the rise of women’s rights, when Sparta lost the conquered land several centuries later, the rights for women disappeared. Two conclusions emerge that may help explain why women’s rights have been so rare for most of history. First, in contrast to the historical norm, the optimal (from the men’s perspective) division of labor among Spartans involved women in work that was not easily monitored by men. Second, the rights held by Spartan women may have been part of an unstable equilibrium, which contained the seeds of its own destruction. For helpful comments, we thank Yoram Barzel, Paul Cartledge, Beth Davenport, Dino Falaschetti, Nancy Folbre, Barbara Hanssen, Ron Johnson, Lea Kosnik, Francine Lafontaine, Dean Lueck, Sarah Pomeroy, Mark Ramseyer, Randy Rucker, Wendy Stock, Chris Stoddard, Werner Troesken, Doug Young, and seminar participants at Colby College, George Mason University, Montana State University, the Property and Environment Research Center, the University of Virginia, Wabash College, the 2006 meetings of the Economic History Association, and the 2007 meetings of the American Economic Association.     

The impact of team characteristics on the supervisor’s attitude towards telework: a mixed-method study

Abstract

This study examines the impact of team characteristics on the supervisor’s attitude towards telework through a mixed-method approach. First, in the quantitative part, we test hypotheses drawing on disruption and dependency theory, using data of 205 supervisors from four Belgian organizations. The data confirm the hypothesized negative correlation between task interdependence and supervisors’ supportive attitude towards telework, as well as the moderating role of supervisor’s dependency on his or her team on this relation. We found no impact of team heterogeneity and lack of team effort and low performance. Second, we use qualitative data collected through 39 semi-structured face-to-face interviews with supervisors to gain a better understanding of supervisors’ reasoning behind their attitude towards telework. These data provide insight into how task interdependence, team heterogeneity and lack of team effort and low performance affect it. Our team-centred conceptualization of the antecedents of supervisors’ attitude towards telework enables to highlight the key role of structural aspects in shaping supervisors’ attitudes towards telework. This is particularly important for policy, as organizations are better placed to remediate aspects at the team level that contribute to supervisors’ negative attitude towards telework, rather than those at the inter-individual one.     

The role of the seller’s stock performance in the market reaction to divestiture announcements

Divestitures have the potential to create shareholder value. However, the extent of the market reaction should depend on the likelihood of finding more valuable uses for the divested assets or the ability on the part of the seller to eliminate negative synergies. We hypothesize that strong performers have less scope to achieve substantial improvements compared to poorly performing firms. Using the seller’s stock return in excess of the market return in the 1-year and 2-year periods preceding the divestiture announcement to expose the divesting firm’s inefficient use of its assets, we show that the market reaction to divestiture announcements is significantly higher for underperforming firms. The difference in abnormal returns can be as high as 4 %. In contrast, none of the accounting-based variables that have been used in previous studies are found to be significantly related to the announcement returns. These results suggest that the firm’s stock performance is a more useful indicator of the wealth effect associated with divestitures.