加息：破解“劫贫济富”的负利率

10月19日晚7点,中国人民银行宣布,自2010年10月20日起上调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率。一年期存款基准利率上调0.25个百分点,由现行的2.25%提高到2.50%;一年期贷款基准利率则由现行的5.31%提高到5.56%。     

中国的利率和汇率问题

2005年全球经济面临失衡,一方面是美国巨额的贸易赤字,一方面是发展中国家积累了大量的贸易顺差,尤其是中国持续的双顺差.全球经济失衡,中国经济也不平衡,那么中国自身不平衡的问题到底在哪里?宏观经济政策,尤其是利率、汇率政策该如何尽可能化解失衡带来的风险?     

Risk Management and Social Visibility in Ghana*

Abstract: In this paper we test for risk pooling within and among social networks to see if the extent of informal insurance available to individuals in rural Ghana varies with their social visibility. We identify a distinct subpopulation of socially invisible individuals who tend to be younger, poorer, engaged in farming, recent arrivals into the village who have been fostered and are not members of a major clan. While we cannot reject the null hypothesis that individual shocks do not affect individual consumption and that individual consumption tracks network and village consumption one‐for‐one among the socially visible, risk pooling fails for the socially invisible subpopulation. These results have important implications for the design of social protection policy.     

Do Small Farmers Borrow Less When the Lending Rate Increases? Interest Rate Elasticity of Rice Farmers in the Philippines*

The new generation of credit programs directed at small borrowers emphasizes financial sustainability. Based on anecdotal information, proponents of cost recovery claim that raising formal lending rates would have a minimal impact on borrowing. However, rigorous evidence for this conjecture is sparse. The present study conducts an econometric test of this conjecture using data from a survey of small rice farmers from the Philippines. Alternative regression techniques tend to reject the conjecture; in particular, a regression that controls for selection effects shows a unitary elastic response of formal borrowing to the lending rate.     

利率结构、利率变化和利率政策的有效性

长期以来,人们一直在致力于寻找一套能够完全解释利率结构和变化的理论,但至今仍未能统一人们对利率的认识。基于利率理论演变的简要回顾,重点对中西方利率政策有效性的研究现状进行系统梳理,以期对我国利率政策有效性的理论研究和实践工作提供一些借鉴。     

Completing China's Interest Rate Liberalization

China's recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structural and quantitative reforms, simply freeing interest rates can result in major financial stress. Before China's central bank can completely relinquish implicit or explicit guidance for commercial banks' interest rate determination, it needs to accomplish two tasks: improvement of commercial banks' pricing capability as well as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Both tasks require significant reform measures to be initiated, such as enforcing market discipline, forming a new monetary policy framework, developing money and capital markets, abandoning quantitative restrictions on credit and reforming the financial regulatory system.     

升息周期中的理财攻略

只要你对身边的小事稍加留意,就会为如今悄然上涨的物价而感慨,豆浆两个涨停板,鸡蛋四个涨停板,猪肉价格翻番……我们的名义工资收入没有变化,实际的购买力却在下降。如果将房     

利率市场化体系下完善住房公积金利率政策建议

在介绍现行公积金利率政策的基础上,分析其存在的问题,并提出相应的政策建议：完善公积金利率定价机制,完善公积金利率管理体系。     

利率市场化与商业银行利率风险管理

中国的利率市场化改革正稳步推进，利率市场化改革给商业银行带来了包括重新定价风险、基本点风险、收益曲线风险和内合选择权风险等类型的利率风险。商业银行可以选择表内管理方法和表外管理方法以及资产征券化技术对不同的利率风险进行规避。我国商业银行利率风险管理的关键在于加强内径机制的建设，还需要金融市场的发展和法律环境的完善。     

中国的利率市场化改革

面对"入世"的进程加快,推进利率市场化已形成基本共识.本文从建立我国利率管理体制出发,试图在我国利率市场化改革条件的基础上,提出利率市场化改革的基本思路.     

基于利率决定及影响因素理论的我国利率分析

利率对国民经济发挥着极其重要的作用,许多因素都与利率息息相关。我国利率目前是部分市场化,政府实行利率管制,对稳定物价、调节市场、促进经济发展和社会生产起到了良好作用。     

Credibility and Interest Rate Discretion in the ERM

Recent proposals for reforming the international monetary system often focus on a target zone arrangement for the dollar, euro and yen. Theoretical research suggests that a credible target zone confers on a participant some short-run discretion in the setting of interest rates, and recent empirical research suggests that this was indeed the case for the Classical gold standard, perhaps the best example of a credible target zone. In this paper we examine the extent of short-run interest rate discretion (SRID) conferred by another experiment with target zones, namely the ERM experience. Amongst our findings is the result that countries that had a credible commitment to the ERM did indeed have SRID.     

Interest Rate Pass‐Through in Mongolia

This study empirically examines the interest rate pass‐through of the money market interest rate to bank lending and bank deposit interest rates in Mongolia using both linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The results from the empirical analysis using data from December 2002 to September 2015 suggest that interest rate pass‐through is generally weaker, slower, and asymmetric in Mongolia. The new findings provide evidence that: (i) interest rate pass‐through has improved over time; (ii) the bank deposit rate has a higher long‐run interest rate pass‐through and slower adjustment than the bank lending rate; and (iii) there is a negative long‐run asymmetric pass‐through with respect to the bank lending rate and a positive long‐run asymmetric pass‐through with respect to the bank deposit rate.     

开放进程中人民币汇率制度演变解读

伴随30年对外开放,我国汇率制度经历了四个阶段的演变。如何解释开放进程中人民币汇率制度演变的动因和目的?本文基于汇率制度战略选择的新政治经济学框架对演变进程进行了分析,并对每一阶段的演变给以了详尽的阐释,在此基础上,应用Probit模型对我国政府的汇率选择行为进行了估计。本文大致得出如下结论:我国汇率制度演变是在政府主导下实现的,同时,也是政府不同阶段目标权衡的结果。此外,人民币汇率市场化之路仍然漫长。     

Cross-Subsidization in Nursing Homes: Explaining Rate Differentials Among Payer Types

Are Medicaid patients being subsidized by other residents in nursing homes? This article employs cross-sectional data on nursing homes and residents in a multiproduct empirical cost analysis to obtain the benchmark magnitudes of patient service costs needed to assess the issues. The estimated cost function provides evidence that Medicaid reimbursement rates are lower than the average incremental cost of care for Medicaid patients in approximately one quarter to one third of Florida nursing homes. One possible explanation for this apparent cross-subsidization, considered here, is that patients pay a premium in self-insured rates early in their residency to fairly cover the expected future losses if they later convert to Medicaid. Based on the empirical frequencies of patient transitions to different payer status over the length of the nursing home stay, it is shown that the apparent cross-subsidization is explained, to a large extent, by an intertemporal conversion surcharge.     

Welfare Economics,Political Economy and Policy Reform in Ghana*

Abstract: Economic policy reform touches upon two aspects of the subject of economics - welfare economics and political economy. The former develops the logic of how the gains of the gainers and the losses of the losers should be weighed against each other, in the context of particular ethical frameworks; the latter analyses how the gains of the gainers and the losses of the losers will be weighed against each other, in the context of the institutions of a particular socio-political system. This essay has considered the sub-disciplines of Welfare Economics and Political Economy as two frameworks for evaluating policy reform and applied them to the case of Ghana. It is argued that the agenda for policy makers in Ghana is to work towards organizing and mobilizing the gainers from reforms which advance social welfare, so that resistance to such reforms from the losers can be overcome. The first decade of reform in Ghana presents the results of such alignment. The second decade of reform now awaits. Résumé: La réforme structurelle de l'économie participe de deux aspects de la doctrine économique: l'économie de bien-être et l'économie politique. La première situe dans un cadre logique les modalités par lesquelles les pertes des perdants et les gains des gagnants devraient être mis en balance, dans le contexte d'un système éthique particulier; la seconde analyse les modalités par lesquelles les gains des gagnants et les pertes des perdants seront mis en balance, dans le contexte des institutions d'un système socio-politique donné. Le présent essai utilise les deux sous-disciplines -économie de bien-être et économie politique-comme cadres d'analyse pour l'évaluation des réformes structurelles, en les appliquant au cas du Ghana. L'auteur soutient que pour les décideurs du Ghana, le mot d'ordre consiste à organiser et mobiliser les bénéficiaires des réformes concourant à la promotion du bien-être social, afin de pouvoir vaincre la résistance que les perdants opposent à ces réformes. La première décennie des réformes au Ghana fait apparaître les résultats de cet alignement. La deuxième décennie est ouverte.     

我国房地产资产升值和资产通胀的外部性--汇率、利率偏低是资产通胀的根源

由于人民币汇率问题,我国的货物和资产都显得相对廉价。外部世界不仅从我国大量进口可移动的贸易品,还通过直接投资等方式大量“进口”中国的土地和房地产商品,这在一定程度上拉动了房地产商品的价格上涨。所以,研究我国的房地产问题,必须从对外贸易角度来分析。实际上我国这几年来所有的经济问题都可以归纳到货币政策和汇率问题。房价上涨的部分原因在于外部输入的货币量过多,人民币汇率和利率偏低,大量资金涌入房地产市场保值升值,使这一稀缺资源充满了投机性。     

利率扭曲、房产价格与汇率波动

文章在构建一个包含信贷约束、价格粘性和工资粘性的新开放经济动态随机一般均衡(NOEM-DSGE)模型的基础上,运用贝叶斯方法估计模型中的结构参数,考察抵押率冲击、技术冲击和利率冲击对我国房产价格及实际汇率的动态影响。研究发现,一方面,正向的抵押率冲击使得房价上涨,汇率先贬值而后升值,而负向的利率冲击则使得房价上涨,汇率贬值,另一方面,正向的技术冲击则使得房价上涨和汇率升值;此外,我们进一步构建了MS-VAR模型实证研究了自2005年汇改以来利率、房价和汇率之间的动态关系。实证结果表明:扭曲的利率冲击导致了房价上涨和汇率贬值同时存在,因此,推动利率市场化改革对于实现我国经济长期均衡健康发展十分必要。     

利率市场化改革势在必行

我国经济改革的进程已展现了商品市场供求关系决定价格的市场机制,企业家与公众投资者的行为受到经济利益的驱使,而资金的供求关系却被政府的管制利率锁定,一个没有市场利率为信号的商品市场、证券市场,其投资决策受政府宏观政策直接控制,自然缺乏衡量与调节成本、收益的经济杠杆,往往是需要什么,什么就供给过度。近年来人们把中央银行的扩张信用一再贷款与商