论虚拟经济下的宏观调控

虚拟经济是从货币的运行领域作出的概括,而资本市场则是货币虚拟运行的具体表现,即是虚拟经济的具体表现。因此,资本市场的活跃就是虚拟经济的活跃。在现代市场经济条件下,需要更大力度地发挥活跃的资本市场对资源的配置作用。而另一方面,在虚拟经济性质的资本市场运行中,经济的稳定性更需要给以高度重视的。但在中国资本市场的发展中,不论是长期的稳定,还是短期的稳定,都必须是市场充分活跃的稳定,而不能是僵化的稳定。在市场经济的宏观调控中,国家对资本市场的调控应是宏观调控的重点。但这种宏观调控并不是可以脱离实体经济运行要求的。宏观调控虚拟经济,从根本上说,是为实体经济运行取得良好效益服务的。在十一五规划期间,中国对资本市场宏观调控的要点包括:大力推进企业债券市场迅速扩容,进一步完善国债市场的运行机制,从根本上彻底地改造股票市场以及按照银行业国际惯例规范借贷市场等。     

虚拟经济与实体经济关系中的几个问题

本文对虚拟资本、虚拟经济的概念进行了重新界定 ,并从狭义虚拟资本的角度考证了虚拟经济的规模 ;分析了虚拟经济与货币经济和实体经济在经济运行中存在的主要区别 ,认为虚拟经济的过度繁荣会产生系统性风险 ,影响实体经济的稳定。中国虚拟经济的发展应与实体经济发展的现实需要相适应 ,近期应从三个方面入手发展中国的虚拟经济。     

从国际货币角度看全球失衡和金融危机

过去30年的经济高速增长,产生了虚拟经济不断与真实经济相背离的趋势.虚拟经济与真实经济之间相背离的这种现象,来源于国际货币体系中主要国家中央银行的业务模式.因此,需要从国际货币角度来理解全球失衡和金融危机.     

美国正在洗劫世界

＂新一轮美元灾难＂正在发生。这不是耸人听闻。这是金融危机之后必然出现的第二次全球性灾难,它的名字叫＂滞胀＂——经济停滞、价格上涨。问题实际已经十分严重。美元无度贬值,已经引发世界各国货币竞争性贬值,日本、印度、巴西、澳大利亚和韩国都在考虑抑制货币升值的问题,这不仅会引发以美元计价的全球大宗商品价格刚性上涨,而且全球性通货膨胀会恶性爆发。     

美国正在洗劫世界

＂新一轮美元灾难＂正在发生。这不是耸人听闻。这是金融危机之后必然出现的第二次全球性灾难,它的名字叫＂滞胀＂——经济停滞、价格上涨。问题实际已经十分严重。美元无度贬值,已经引发世界各国货币竞争性贬值,日本、印度、巴西、澳大利亚和韩国都在考虑抑制货币升值的问题,这不仅会引发以美元计价的全球大宗商品价格刚性上涨,而且全球性通货膨胀会恶性爆发。     

银行人谈金融与互联网之争③ 互联网金融未来的十大猜想

正猜想1对金融监管提出新的挑战"比特币"是互联网"极客"文化的产物,从虚拟到现实、从游戏到实体、从线上到线下,这种跨越国界的互联网金融产品会以什么样的方式影响世界、影响人们的生活,现在断言为时尚早。但不可否认的是,以"比特币"为代表的虚拟货币会对现行的金融监管提出新的挑战,怎样防范虚拟经济向实体经济过度蔓延,怎样控制互联网虚拟货币对正常金融市场的冲击,也许需要更高的智慧和未雨绸缪的制度建设及政策保障。     

浅析金融与经济发展及其对我国金融业的启示

一．有关金融与经济的理论争论 1．金融发展与经济增长之间没有关系 对于货币与实体经济之间的关系，西方古典经济学家根据萨伊定律提出了货币中性和信用媒介论，该理论认为货币供给量的变化不影响产出、就业等实际的经济变量。后来的一些经济学家如K．Wicksell，虽然认识到了货币在经济增长中具有重大的、实质性的影响，但主要强调的是消除货币对经济的不利影响。货币学派的代表人物Friedman认为“货币至关重要”只是就短期而言，在长期中货币供给的变化只会引起物价水平的变动，而不会影响实际产出。Joan Robinson也认为金融体系的出现和发展仅仅是对经济增长的被动反应。     

国际经济背景下美元贬值的原因、影响及对策分析

美元贬值主要是由美元与主要经济体货币调整不同步以及方向选择差异而形成。对于不同经济体而言，美元贬值存在着非常分明的正负效应，由此导致了各国政府态度认识上的不同。同时，总体上美元的渐次贬值有利于全球经济走向均衡，但速率过猛的美元贬值却会破坏国际经济的均衡。因此，未来美元的下跌空间会受到限制，“美元危机”只是一个伪命题。     

实体经济滑坡导致就业难

北京理工大学教授胡星斗认为,大学生就业形势严峻,最根本的原因是由于中国实体经济的滑坡。实体经济滑坡造成高端人才需求减少,而如果中国经济能成功转型、产业升级,实体经济回报率提高,人们将更愿意投资实体经济而不是虚拟经济,就会制造出更多的就业机会。     

金融蒸发将由证券市场转向产业投资

市场经济席卷全球，市场化进程本身就是让货币过剩的过程，而为符合经济体系的能量守恒，货币过剩就要蒸发，经济过剩就要平仓。从历史经验看，德国上世纪30年代经济危机和日本90年代泡沫破灭都表现在实体经济上出现产品生产过剩、滞销导致资金链断裂，产业陷入危机再波及证券市场泡沫破裂。而随着虚拟经济数倍膨胀并能脱离实体经济自行运转，金融领域反而更容易出问题。货币总在实体与虚拟经济间分配。     

弱势美元背景下的中国资本账户开放

2006年以来,美元对国际主要货币的大幅贬值导致全球金融市场动荡,国际短期资本大量流向中国,威胁中国的金融安全,使中国有步骤推进人民币资本账户可兑换、促进跨境资金双向流动的计划受到挑战。中国需要继续完善市场经济体制,按照市场化原则稳步推进资本账户开放;采取盯住货币汇率制度、完善外汇市场等手段,促进人民币汇率的稳定和灵活;提升人民币的国际影响力,增强中国经济抵抗外部冲击的能力。     

Chinese RMB exchange rate and local currency price stability in ASEAN trade

The article uses trade data between China and ASEAN countries to test hypotheses related to pricing to market (PTM) and consequent local currency price stability (LCPS). The degree of price discrimination associated with real RMB exchange rate changes between China and ASEAN + 2 shows evidence of local currency price stability in some industries in which exporters may be less competitive. China's trade policy may have also played a role in the local currency price stability. The article finds no evidence that RMB appreciation creates a larger impact on price adjustment than RMB depreciation.     

Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s: An Extension to Asia

Scholars have found a positive relationship between the magnitude of currency depreciation and the extent of recovery from the Great Depression for Europe and Latin America. The relationship between currency depreciation and economic activity during the Great Depression for Asian economies has not yet been explored. This paper examines this topic using data from 13 Asian economies: China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam. We find that Asian economies responded in a similar way to currency depreciation during the Great Depression as did European and Latin American countries.     

A simple macro model of Original Sin based on optimal price setting under incomplete information

This paper analyses the consequences of “original sin” (the fact that the currency of an emerging market economy usually cannot be used to borrow abroad) for macroeconomic stability. The approach is based on third-generation models of currency crises, but differs from alternative versions by explicitly modeling the price setting behavior of firms if prices are sticky and there is incomplete information about the future exchange rate. It is shown that a small depreciation is beneficial, but a large one is detrimental.     

How will China shape the world economy?

We will provide an outlook for China's role in the world economy over the coming decades, an exercise which would not be possible without an analysis of the prospects for China's continued economic growth. Based on international and historical comparisons, we argue that today's China meets all three key conditions for continued economic growth, including a stable government that is supportive of a market economy; high and increasing quality of human capital, and openness to developed economies. Dependent on China's continued growth, we explore how China will impact many other economies through trade and investment, creating winners and losers in the world economy. Moreover, we argue that China will become a more active player in changing global economic governance not only through participating in reforms of existing institutions but also by leading efforts to establish new ones.     

Responsibilities of China after Accession to the WTO

China became a full member of the WTO on 11 December 2001. China has not only increased its presence in mainstream world trade but has gained knowledge about the basic rules of market economies and become more adaptable to changes in the international economy. As a new member of the WTO, being adaptable to changes in the international economy is essential. As a large developing country, China, with its rapid economic growth, huge volume of trade and substantial market potential, has exerted and will continue to exert profound influence on the world economy. It is commonly recognized that China's influence cannot be ignored in the world economy. Five years since its accession to the WTO, China is considering where it stands as a member of the WTO. What does China hope to achieve by being a member of the WTO, how can these hopes be shared among all trading partners, what is China's responsibility in this, and what are the responsibilities of other trading partners?     

我国央行海外资产运作的风险与策略

面对美国爆发的金融危机向全球传递,我国中央银行需要有效地管理好外汇储备资产,调整多元化币种结构,转换增持美国国债的模式,增加进口与海外并购,不仅能提升我国行业竞争力和结构性调整,还能预防因美国经济衰退和美国政府倡导的全球注资带来的通货膨胀,防止日益增加的外汇储备遭遇贬值的风险。当前需要利用美元升值与资本市场价格暴跌产生的并购机遇,进行资本输出,收购价值被严重低估又有潜力的企业,这不仅是对美国未来经济增长的援助,也是增加海外投资收益促使外汇储备增长的新模式。     

世界经济新格局与中国经济长期增长前景

中国各行业企业资本边际收益率普遍下降,意味着中国宏观经济增速下行已成为必然趋势。实际上,这标志着中国在完成基本工业化后开始从高速增长阶段进入中低速增长阶段,这也是国际发达经济体和东亚新兴经济体都遵循的发展规律。面对经济增长的趋势性变化,货币政策对经济增长的刺激作用是非常有限的,大量超发货币只会加剧信贷泡沫、增加企业尝债能力的系统性风险。当前经济的核心问题在于宏观税赋过高和企业盈利能力不足,因此,最重要的财政政策应该是实施总量减税而不仅是结构性减税,尤其是对中小企业减税减赋,才能增加就业,提高居民消费比例,转变经济增长方式。     

Bank Indonesia and The Recent Crisis

This paper is a personal note describing the crisis as it unfolded while the writer was a key player in Indonesia's macroeconomic management. The crisis is seen as multi-faceted. It originated externally from a shock in the currency market that triggered a downward spiral from currency depreciation to fully-fledged crisis. The currency shock that hit the rupiah in July 1997 exposed in sequence the flaws embedded in the banking sector, the economic system, the social and the political system, flaws that had been obscured by long years of good economic performance. Through a complicated process of contagion and feedback effects—market disturbances, policy responses and market reactions—Indonesia deteriorated from a relatively well managed economy to the “worst case” among the Asian crisis economies. The paper discusses this process, the IMF's role, the bank closure issue, the currency board controversy and the author's dismissal as Governor of Bank Indonesia.     

弱势回稳的世界经济:新变量、新动力、新机遇——2020年世界经济分析报告

受贸易摩擦、地缘政治和衰退风险等重大不确定因素的共同影响,2019年的世界经济面临着不断下行的压力。发达国家和新兴经济体的经济增速出现了同步放缓。展望2020年,随着中美贸易摩擦和英国"脱欧"紧张局势缓解以及各国继续运用货币与财政手段进行"政策托底",世界经济有望弱势回稳。其中,发达经济体的增长势头趋缓。美国将迎来大选,政府有动力刺激经济实现温和的增长;欧洲的增长会更为缓慢,部分南欧国家爆发债务危机的可能性仍然存在;日本的经济增长可能会因为消费税上调而出现负面影响。新兴经济体的增长动能有望增强,但部分国家面临着债务、汇率及民粹主义风险,各国经济走势也将出现分化。随着中国改革开放力度的增强,中国经济将持续成为全球经济发展的核心推力与稳定器。