Estimating the determinants of stock price changes

I develop an approach for estimating the determinants of stock price changes that uses all eligible trade data and other observable parameters of market activity. This approach backs out the unobserved continuous price change distribution from the observable discrete price changes, and does not constrain the determinants to be proportions of the traded bid-ask spread. I show that theoretically impermissible results and skewed estimates of cost components are obtained when the model used for estimating the determinants of stock price changes does not attempt to uncover the mapping between the observed price changes and the underlying unobserved continuous price change process, and does not effectively use all eligible trade data.     

An econometric model of housing price, permanent income, tenure choice, and housing demand

This paper addresses the determination of housing price, permanent income, tenure choice, and housing demand. Full housing demand elasticities incorporate the interactive effects among the four stages of the model. Price and income have major effects in the tenure choice equation. Sociodemographic variables, such as age, have complex effects that may be lost in simpler forms of estimation.     

Discrete choice models and the housing price and travel to work elasticities of location demand

Multinomial logit and nested logit models of mode choice in travel to work and housing location choice are estimated from 1970 U.S. census data aggregated to small zones of the Chicago SMSA. The estimated models are then used to derive the “housing rent,” “travel time,” and “travel cost” elasticities of location demand. The effects of sampling variation, sample size, attribute inclusion, model specification, and estimation method on the estimated elasticities are evaluated and found to be important. The elasticities are also compared and found to agree with those obtained from other discrete choice models and, in the case of “housing rent,” with estimates obtained from models based on other theoretical structure.     

住房价格指数以及区位对住房价格的影响——北京市住房价格实证分析

根据北京市的1308个新建住宅项目数据,建立了Hedonic模型,着重分析了时间、距离、环线以及行政区等变量对住房价格的影响,构建了北京市住房Hedonic价格指数和住房价格的梯度曲线.     

Managing hedonic housing price indexes: The French experience

Despite their theoretical advantages, hedonic housing price indexes are not so commonly computed by statistical agencies or real estate professionals. Many published indexes still rely on mean or median prices, or favor repeat-sales methods, which require less information about the attributes of the housing units and less econometric expertise on the part of the index compilers, but may be less accurate and robust. In France as in other countries where housing sales have to be recorded in front of a notary, data on transaction prices and characteristics of dwellings are available. Such data have been centralized since 1994, and quarterly hedonic housing price indexes have been computed for more than 10 years. This paper describes the institutional setting of housing transactions in France, and the collaboration between the notaries and the national statistical agency (INSEE). The former are responsible for data collection and regular computation, whereas the latter takes scientific responsibility for the method. The detailed information on the individual properties transacted remains proprietary data, but disaggregated indexes are publicly and freely available. This organization and assignment of roles has proven effective and might be extended to countries with similar institutional settings.     

The reduced form price elasticity of housing

This paper focuses on the modeling of the housing market. First, there is a discussion of terminology. The importance of distinguishing between housing and structures, and between reduced form and supply elasticities is emphasized. Second, the role of tastes and technology is emphasized. Third, the integration of the housing market into a general equilibrium urban model to investigate such issues as the effects of a housing subsidy is discussed. Throughout attention is drawn to what additional information is needed to provide an adequate empirical characterization of the housing market.     

Wage gradients,rent gradients,and the price elasticity of demand for housing: An empirical investigation

As developed in Muth's “Cities and Housing,” attainment of locational equilibrium within an urban area implies a necessary functional correspondence between wage and price gradients and the compensated price elasticity of demand for housing. In this paper estimates of the rent and wage gradients are utilized to generate price-elasticity estimates via this equilibrium correspondence. The Box-Cox transformation technique is used with data from the metropolitan Chicago area to test for the functional forms of the wage and rent gradients. The optimal maximum-likelihood functional forms for both gradients yield a price-elasticity estimate of ?0.40.     

The demand for housing in developing countries: The case of Korea

This paper presents the results of an analysis of urban housing demand for Korea taking into account the most recent findings of housing demand analysis concerning specification and aggregation biases. In order to obtain correctly specified demand functions, a procedure based on a model of the housing market originally proposed by Muth is used. Drawing on the detailed land information available in Korea, this procedure permits the calculation of an individual price per unit of housing services for each household. The results show conclusively that both the income and price elasticity of the demand for housing services in Korea are comparable to those found in the United States: the income elasticity is smaller than one and the price elasticity is negative and smaller than one in absolute value. Given the number of countries found within the per capita income range between Korea ($700) and the United States ($7800), the finding that these two countries have comparable demand elasticities is of major significance: in the absence of good national estimates, the order of magnitudes found here would be used for other country analyses.     

The relationships between income and price elasticities in studies of housing demand,tenure choice,and household formation

Three decisions pertaining to the demand for housing are (1) household formation, (2) tenure choice, and (3) how much housing to consume, given the household formation and tenure choice decisions. Income and price elasticities can be estimated that include one, two, or all three of these decisions. The relationships between these elasticities are developed.     

The impact of investor structure on stock price crash sensitivity: Evidence from China's stock market

Stock price crash sensitivity refers to the conditional probability of a stock crash when the market collapses. It focuses on individual stocks' sensitivity to the market crash and can affect stock pricing significantly. Although the crash sensitivity of China's stock market is very high as a whole (Weigert, 2016), different individual stocks show varying degrees of crash sensitivity. This paper, adopting the perspective of institutional investors, explores the reasons for the difference in crash sensitivity in China's stock market, and finds that: First, institutional investors' shareholdings is positively related to firms' stock price crash sensitivity. However, after dividing institutional investors into professional (represented by financial institutions) and non-professional institutional investors (represented by general legal persons), we find that only professional institutional investors' shareholdings is negatively related to firms' stock price crash sensitivity. Second, the impact of professional institutional investors on the crash sensitivity is influenced by stock liquidity and media sentiment: when the stock liquidity of listed companies is good or the media sentiment is strong, the negative impact of professional institutional investors on the crash sensitivity is accordingly high. This paper, by highlighting the investor structure, attempts a pioneering exploration of the influencing factors of the difference in stock price crash sensitivity in China. Our empirical results enrich research on stock price crash sensitivity and the heterogeneity of institutional investors. They can also serve to guide regulatory authorities' development of institutional investors and efforts to maintain market stability.     

The urban housing market: A new approach for estimating demand for housing by dwelling type

A new approach for estimating urban housing demand by dwelling type is suggested and tested empirically. The approach is based on the assumption that households choose their residential location and dwelling type in a way to maximize the communal utility. The model used is the Dynamic General Linear Expenditure System which allows determination of (1) urban housing demand by dwelling type, and (2) expenditure and own- and cross-price elasticities (compensated and uncompensated).     

我国城市移民的住房需求分析

农民工是构成城市移民的主要成分,尽管住房并不是移民支出的主要部分,大多数农民工在进城后选择低端房屋,但家庭聚居方式让移民对住房的要求逐步提高。计算发现,我国每年新增约200万-250万城市移民,即使按照廉租住房标准给他们提供住房,每年的需求增量也多达2600万平方米。因此,解决城市移民的住房问题对经济社会协调发展具有重要意义。     

The use of proxy variables in housing price analysis

This paper presents a reexamination of data used by Berry to study housing prices in Chicago. The detailed data on 275 single-family houses are used to test the proposition that the tax assessment on improvements is a good proxy for the attributes of the houses. It is shown that the test used by Berry is irrelevant for the question of omitted variables bias, and the correct test is presented. It is concluded that the proxy corrects for a bias in the coefficient of percent black population, but increases the negative bias in the coefficient of percent Latino population.     

The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries

The responsiveness of housing supply to changes in prices bears important implications for the evolution of housing prices and the speed of adjustment of housing markets. Based on a stock-flow model of the housing market estimated within an error correction framework, this paper estimates the long-run price elasticity of new housing supply in 21 OECD countries. Estimates suggest that the responsiveness of housing supply to price changes varies substantially across countries. It is relatively more flexible in North America and some Nordic countries, while it is more rigid in continental European countries and in the United Kingdom. The responsiveness of housing supply depends not only on national geographical and urban characteristics but also on policies, such as land use and planning regulations.     

The reversal of large stock price declines: The case of large firms

This paper examines the long-run reversal pattern for a sample of large U.S. firms that experienced significant stock price declines of more than 20 percent during a specific month. The results from the analysis are largely consistent with the overreaction hypothesis and significantly greater in magnitude than those reported by previous studies. Six and 12 months after their initial price decline, the stocks of large firms earn approximately 4 and 12 percent in excess of what was expected, respectively. However, the magnitude and trend of that reversal differs substantially across industries. Technology stocks experience the largest and strongest reversal pattern followed by manufacturing stocks, while service industry stocks exhibit a clear downward drift that lasts up to three years and can be described as investorunderreaction to the large price drop.     

Determinants of the stock price reaction to leveraged buyouts

Abtract  This paper investigates the determinants of leveraged buyout activity through the use of an abnormal return premium from the time of the first announcement through the final trading day. Consistent with the free cash flow theory, firms with either high free cash flow or low Tobin’s q have higher abnormal returns. Howerver, the returns to firms with both high free cash flow and low Tobin’s q are lower than firms with just one of these characteristics. Firms which substantially increase leverage and management buyouts with high insider ownership prior to the buyout have lower abnormal returns. Firms with lower risk, and therefore greater debt capacity, have higher abnormal returns.     

Determinants of the stock price reaction to leveraged buyouts

This paper investigates the determinants of leveraged buyout activity through the use of an abnormal return premium from the time of the first announcement through the final trading day. Consistent with the free. cash flow theory, firms with either high free cash flow or low Tobin’s q have higher abnormal returns. However, the returns to firms with both high free cash flow and low Tobin’s q are lower than firms with just one of these characteristics. Firms which substantially increase leverage and management buyouts with high insider ownership prior to the buyout have lower abnormal returns. Firms with lower risk, and therefore greater debt capacity, have higher abnormal returns.     

The impact of site characteristics on housing cost estimates

Hedonic housing regressions using micro data for owners and renters from the 1972–1973 Consumer Expenditure Survey are presented. By including tract characteristics and public goods in these regressions, evidence is presented which indicates sensitivity of the physical housing variable coefficients to the choice of included site-related characteristics. Furthermore, omission of public good variables can result in misleading, and possibly perverse, coefficients on access. Intermetropolitan housing cost estimates, however, are shown to be relatively insensitive to the choice of site-related characteristics.