外国直接投资与旅游业:来自中国的证据

本文将Zaptata和Rambaldi(1997)提出的方法应用于中国的季度数据,以便检验中国的外国直接投资(FDI)和旅游业之间的因果关系。实证结果表明,由FDI到旅游存在着单向因果关系。这一发现有助于解释过去的十几年中中国旅游市场的快速发展。     

FDI的内资企业溢出和市场选择效应分析——基于中国产业层面数据的检验

本文在Aitken and Harrison（1999）模型的基础上,同时定量检验我国的FDI溢出效应和市场选择效应。①结果显示：（1）我国FDI存在正的产业内溢出效应,但由于受其他产业FDI的抑制,FDI产业内溢出净效应有限;（2）FDI产业间溢出效应远大于产业内溢出净效应;（3）外资对我国内资企业市场选择效果显著,但这种作用小于FDI的溢出效应;（4）开放度越高的产业外资溢出效应和市场选择效应影响越显著。     

The role of FDI in domestic exporting: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the impact of FDI on domestic exporting firms. We show that domestic firms respond to an increase in the presence of FDI by increasing their exports even though the increase in foreign presence can drive up production costs and make the domestic market more profitable. Our test case for this hypothesis is China, where we confirm the significant positive impact of FDI on domestic firms’ exports. This finding sheds light on the massive exports and rapid inflow of foreign investment that have been observed in China in the past three decades.     

FDI在中国的技术外溢效应:基于面板数据的考察

通过使用1994～2006年的中国省际面板数据,分析了FDI对中国的技术外溢效应,并进一步实证考察了人力资本在FDI技术外溢中所起的作用。结果表明,缺乏经验证据支持FDI的正向技术外溢效应,但发现人力资本有利于促进FDI技术外溢效应作用的发挥。因此,在吸引外商直接投资的同时,要进一步思考如何有效利用和发挥其外溢效应,注重与国内的技术和人力资本的积累相结合,挖掘各区域对FDI技术外溢效应的吸收能力,弥合区域间发展的不平衡。     

Business Cycles and FDI: Evidence from German Sectoral Data

Globalization has affected business cycle developments in OECD countries and has increased activities of firms across national borders. This paper analyzes whether these two developments are linked. We use a new firm-level data set on the foreign activities of German firms to test whether foreign activities are affected by business cycle developments. We aggregate the data by the sector of the reporting firm, the sector of the foreign affiliate, and the host country. Data are annual and cover the period 1989–2002. We find that German outward FDI increases in response to positive cyclical developments abroad and in response to a real depreciation of the domestic currency. JEL no. E3, F23     

Export entry and exit by German firms

Export Entry and Exit by German Firms. — While exports have played an important role in German business cycles, little is known about the export supply response of German firms. This paper presents a dynamic model of the export decision by a profit-maximizing firm. Using a panel of German manufacturing plants, we test for the role of plant characteristics and sunk costs in the entry decision. We find evidence for substantial sunk costs: exporting today by a plant increases the probability by 50 percent that the plant will export tomorrow. This advantage depreciates quickly, falling by two-thirds in a year. The authors also find evidence that plant success, as measured by size and productivity, increases the likelihood of exporting.     

FDI双向流动和净流动影响因素研究——基于全球58个经济体的实证分析

双向直接投资蓬勃发展正成为中国经济的重要现象,研究FDI双向流动和流入净值的关键影响因素,有助于我们理解国际范围内FDI可持续发展的机制,对中国在FDI双向流动态势下实现经济稳定增长有很强的实践意义。文章研究显示,经济增长潜力越大的国家越有利于FDI净流入;IFDI发展有助于OFDI发展,IFDI与OFDI互动发展关系显著。就不同类型国家来说,高收入国家的IFDI与OFDI互动发展更具有可持续性;收入相对比较低的国家,IFDI流入规模超过OFDI;税收、行政效率、劳动力供给等因素对FDI净流入和FDI净流出均有显著影响,但其作用方向相反。     

Labour market segmentation: Evidence from Cyprus

Labour market segmentation (LMS) is thought to generate poverty and inequality and its existence has been often documented by estimated earnings functions identified by such endogenous income-determining factors as occupation, firm size and sector. Past research is open to the criticism that it ignores the extent to which workers are able to gain access to the high wage segments of the labour market. The paper investigates various dimensions of LMS in Cyprus and shows that the market is segmented by sex, an exogenous factor, as well as by the endogenous factors of public/private sectors of employment and firm size. Evidence is presented to show how the Cyprus labour market operates to erect barriers which serve to restrict access of workers to the high wage segments.     

Trade regimes and spillover effects of FDI: Evidence from Uruguay

Trade Regimes and Spillover Effects of FDI: Evidence from Uruguay. — This paper examines differences in the character and impact of FDI entering Uruguay during import substitution, pursued until 1973, and the subsequent more outwardoriented trade regime. Regression analysis shows that the labor productivity of local firms is positively related to the presence of older import-substituting MNCs in their industry. The presence of foreign affiliates established after 1973 has no apparent impact on local productivity, but seems to raise the likelihood that local firms engage in exporting. This may be a sign of export spillovers, indicating that local firms may pick up some exportrelated skills from the operations of outward-oriented foreign MNCs.     

Endogenous market structure and foreign market entry

Models dealing with cross-border acquisitions versus greenfield investment usually assume that the entry of a foreign firm into a market has effects on the outputs of all domestic firms in that market, but exit or entry of local firms is not considered. The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the acquisition versus greenfield versus exporting question under fixed versus free entry assumptions for local firms. Our finding is that greenfield entry and exporting options are more attractive relative to acquisition when the local market structure adjusts to foreign entry through local entry or exit than when it is fixed. With respect to welfare in the host economy, existing theory models and policy discussions maintain that the effects of greenfield versus acquisition entry differ substantially. We show that under free entry and exit, there is no difference between the two for consumer surplus, but acquisition improves welfare a little through rent extraction by the local acquired firm. Thus the existing conventional wisdom may be leading to inappropriate policy choices by host governments.     

FDI、国内资本与经济增长——1987-2001年中国省际面板数据的证据

本文基于1987-2001年中国省际面板数据,运用固定效应和随机效应分析进行实证研究发现:FDI作为“投资”本身对经济增长的直接作用并不显著,但它通过促进全要素生产率的提升和“挤入”国内自身的投资,从而间接地对经济增长产生了积极作用;国有部门在全社会固定投资中占居主导地位,它对经济增长的直接促进作用是显著的,但对全要素生产率并无明显作用;私人部门投资对经济增长没有直接促进作用,对全要素生产率也无显著影响。因而,相对于国内资本来说,FDI对中国经济增长的作用具有“催化剂”的性质。     

Complex vertical FDI and firm heterogeneity: Evidence from East Asia

This study statistically tests the validity of the mechanics of complex vertical foreign direct investment (C-VFDI) in Japanese machinery FDI to East Asia by estimating a multiple-spatial lag model. From a theoretical perspective regarding C-VFDI, the production activity of affiliates in a given country is positively related to the production activity in neighboring countries that have large differences in factor prices with the given country. Furthermore, high-productivity firms are likely to choose a C-VFDI strategy. Our empirical results show no robust geographical relationship among affiliates’ activities. However, the significantly positive relationship in wage differentials among those activities is found only for high-productivity firms.     

FDI、外包与技术创新:基于投入产出表数据的经验研究

本文利用投入产出表数据对中国企业的外包行为做了经验研究,分析了外包的决定因素以及外包对本土技术创新的影响。研究结果显示,与西方企业的外包动因不同,劳动力成本并不是中国企业考虑的因素。外资流入较多的行业其外包的密度也较高,表明外商投资企业具有较高的外包倾向。通过对外包与本土技术创新的计量分析我们发现,外包与行业的科研人员占比呈正相关关系,说明外包导致人力资源配置向有利于本土技术创新的方向发展,这对中国长期经济增长有利。     

市场化进程对外资技术溢出的影响:中国的经验

文章计量检验了中国市场化进程对外资技术溢出的影响。研究发现,市场化进程不仅促进了中国工业生产率的增长,而且是促进外资技术溢出的决定性因素。市场化进程的各项制度变迁内容都显著地促进了外资技术溢出。要素市场发育在推动中国生产率增长中扮演重要角色。在地区比较后,研究进一步发现,东部地区外资技术溢出的决定因素是市场化进程,要素市场发育是决定外资技术溢出的最重要的制度变迁内容;由于市场化进程缓慢,中西部地区R＆D吸收能力相对更重要一些,非国有经济的发展是该地区促进外资技术溢出的主要制度变迁因素。     

Determinants of Different Modes of FDI: Firm-Level Evidence from Japanese FDI into the US

There are four major modes through which firms undertake foreign direct investment (FDI) – merger and acquisition (M&A), joint venture (JV), new plant (NP) and others (O). The four modes of FDI are distinct from each other, and each has its own unique advantages and disadvantages. While a large and growing empirical literature examines the determinants of FDI, very few studies examine the determinants of different modes of FDI. The central objective of this paper is to empirically analyze the extent to which the determinants of FDI such as firm size influences the choice of one mode of FDI over another. Our analysis follows a stylized two-stage investment process. First, we look at the probability of whether a Japanese firm is willing to undertake FDI in the US. Second, for firms that are willing to undertake FDI, we analyze which mode of FDI - i.e. M&A, joint venture, new plant or other FDI – they will undertake. The second stage is the innovation of this paper and its contribution to the FDI literature.     

外商投资的技术溢出效应：基于企业特征视角的考察——以江苏为例

引进跨国公司先进技术和管理经验是中国吸收FDI主要目的之一。本文运用1990-2003年江苏制造业数据．实证检验企业外商所有权份额、内外资企业技术差距、内资企业规模及资本密集度与FDI溢出效应的关系，并对回归结果进行分析。结果显示，FDI存在着对内资企业正的溢出效应．但溢出规模并不是在任何情况下总是相等。溢出规模既取决于外商所有权份额、内外资企业技术差距，又与内资企业规模、资本密集度有关。防范外商行业垄断，形成有效的竞争市场；加速内资企业发展．提高对新技术的识别、模仿及自主创新能力；促使内外资企业人员双向流动，能够有效地发挥FDI对中国经济的促进作用。     

Exports, FDI, and Productivity: Dynamic Evidence from Japanese Firms

This paper examines the relationship between exports, foreign direct investment, and firm productivity. Using longitudinal panel data on Japanese firms, it is found that the most productive firms engage in exports and foreign direct investment, medium productive firms engage in either exports or foreign direct investment, and the least productive firms focus only on the domestic market. Moreover, exports and foreign direct investment appear to improve firm productivity once the productivity convergence effect is controlled for. Firms that retain a presence in foreign markets, either by exports or foreign direct investment, show the highest productivity growth, which contributes to improvements in national productivity. JEL no. F10, F20, D21     

Pricing of foreign exchange risk and market segmentation: Evidence from Pakistan's equity market

This paper undertakes empirical analysis to investigate whether foreign exchange rate risk is priced, and the extent to which the Pakistani equity market is integrated into world equity markets. For the period January 1993–January 2013, we investigate unconditional pricing using the iterated generalized method of moments, employing industry and size portfolios formed from 180 firms traded on the Karachi Stock Exchange. Using the multi beta asset pricing model, we find that exchange risk is priced into the Pakistani equity market over the full sample period. Moreover, we find strong evidence that the Pakistani equity market is segmented from world markets, especially in the post 9/11 period.     

Capital Flows, FDI, and Technology Spillovers: Evidence from Arab Countries

The aim of this paper is to study the role and significance of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the economic performance of the Arab countries. It first highlights the importance of international capital and financial flows in the Arab and developing countries, and then concentrates on the global distribution of FDI and its position in the Arab world. This discussion is followed by an analysis of the effect of FDI on Arab technological development and total factor productivity (TFP). The paper concludes with policy recommendations and suggestions.