Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets

In this paper, we study how central bank transparency influences the formation of money market expectations in emerging markets. The sample covers 25 countries for the period from January 1998 to December 2009. We find, first, that transparency reduces the bias (the difference between the money market rate and the weighted expected target rate over the contract period) in money market expectations. The effect is larger for countries with no exchange rate peg and countries with low income. Second, an intermediate level of transparency is found to have the most favorable influence on money market expectations: neither complete secrecy nor complete transparency is optimal. Finally, all subcategories of the Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) index lead to a smaller bias in expectations, with political transparency having the largest effect.     

Anomalies in emerging markets: The case of Mexico

In this article we explore the relationship between 19 of the most common anomalies reported for the US market and the cross-section of Mexican stock returns. We find that 1-month stock returns in Mexico are robustly predicted only by 3 of the 19 anomalies: momentum, idiosyncratic volatility, and the lottery effect. Momentum has a positive relation with future 1-month returns, while idiosyncratic volatility and the lottery effect have a negative relation. For longer horizons of 3 and 6 months, only the 3 most important factors in the US market predict returns: size, book-to-market, and momentum.     

Derivatives market and economic growth nexus: Policy implications for emerging markets

The derivatives market plays a crucial role in an economy. However, its link to economic growth and macroeconomic factors seem to be insufficiently covered in academic research despite the publication of many empirical studies on the causality of finance and growth. Recently, many emerging markets, such as Vietnam, have decided to establish a derivatives markets for risk management to ensure stability in the economy. This paper investigates the dynamic relationship among these key variables using up-to-date panel data on 17 countries, for which required data are available until 2017. This study yields various findings. First, bidirectional Granger causality between derivatives markets and economic growth exists internationally. Second, using panel vector autoregression, impulse-response functions, variance decomposition techniques as well as panel econometrics estimations, we find that trade openness and government spending have more effects on the derivatives market than economic growth and inflation. Third, we document that the derivatives market has a more integrated direct relationship with economic growth and macroeconomic factors in high-income countries than their upper-middle-income counterparts. These new findings are essential for consideration by policy makers in emerging markets in relation to the development of their derivatives markets.     

The outbreak of COVID-19 and stock market liquidity: Evidence from emerging and developed equity markets

The outbreak of the novel corona virus has heightened concerns surrounding the adverse financial effects of the outbreak on stock market liquidity and economic policies. This paper contributes to the emerging strand of studies examining the adverse effects of the virus on varied aspect of global markets. The paper examines the causality and co-movements between COVID-19 and the aggregate stock market liquidity of China, Australia and the G7 countries (Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Germany, the UK and the US), using daily three liquidity proxies (Amihud, Spread and Traded Value) over the period December 2019 to July 2020. Our empirical analysis encompasses wavelet coherence and phase-differences as well as a linear Granger causality test. Linear causality test results suggest that a causal relationship exists between the number of cases of COVID 19 infections and stock market liquidity. To quantitatively examine the degree of causality between COVID-19 outbreak and stock market liquidity, we employ the continuous wavelet coherence approach with results revealing the unprecedented impact of COVID-19 on stock market liquidity during the low frequency bands for countries that were hard hit with the COVID-19 outbreak, i.e., Italy, Germany, France, the UK and the US. Further, evidence shows that there is a heterogeneous lead-lag nexus across scales for the entire period of the study.     

Dependence structures between Chinese stock markets and the international financial market: Evidence from a wavelet-based quantile regression approach

In this study, we investigate the dependence structures between six Chinese stock markets and the international financial market including possible safe haven assets and global economic factors under different market conditions and investment horizons. The research is conducted by combining a quantile regression approach with a wavelet decomposition analysis. Although we find little or insignificant dependence under short investment horizons, we detect the strong asymmetric dependence of oil prices and the US dollar index on the six Chinese stock markets in the medium and long terms. Moreover, not only is crude oil not a safe haven, it may damage Chinese stock markets as it increases over the long term, even in bull markets. Meanwhile, appreciation of the US dollar (depreciation of RMB) damages (boosts) Chinese stock markets during bull (bear) market conditions under long investment horizons. Moreover, we find that VIX (volatility index)-related derivatives may serve as good risk management tools under any market condition, while gold is a safe haven asset only during crisis periods.     

Value at risk models for volatile emerging markets equity portfolios

This paper investigates the issue of market risk quantification for emerging and developed market equity portfolios. A very wide spectrum of popular and widely used in practice Value at Risk (VaR) models are evaluated and compared with Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and adaptive filtered models, during normal, crises, and post-crises periods. The results are interesting and indicate that despite the documented differences between emerging and developed markets, the most successful VaR models are common for both asset classes. Furthermore, in the case of the (fatter tailed) emerging market equity portfolios, most VaR models turn out to yield conservative risk forecasts, in contrast to developed market equity portfolios, where most models underestimate the realized VaR. VaR estimation during periods of financial turmoil seems to be a difficult task, particularly in the case of emerging markets and especially for the higher loss quantiles. VaR models seem to be affected less by crises periods in the case of developed markets. The performance of the parametric (non-parametric) VaR models improves (deteriorates) during post-crises periods due to the inclusion of extreme events in the estimation sample.     

The emerging market crisis and stock market linkages: further evidence

This study examines the long‐run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission among the USA, Germany, and four major Eastern European emerging stock markets, with particular attention to the impact of the 1998 Russian financial crisis. The results show that both the long‐run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission were strengthened among these markets after the crisis. The influence of Germany became noticeable on all the Eastern European markets only after the crisis but not before the crisis. We also conduct a rolling generalized VAR analysis to confirm the robustness of the main findings. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Corporate financial distress: The case of publicly listed firms in an emerging market economy

Occurrences of financial distress (FD) are not readily obvious yet can span several periods. This paper examines episodes of FD using industry‐relative (IR) firm‐/ accounting‐, market‐ and macro‐level information. Mixed logit regressions reveal that firm‐ and market‐based measures, as well as macro‐level variables explain the likelihood of FD in 263 publicly listed non‐banking firms in the Philippines during the period 1995 to 2018. Rates of identification of firms in financial distressed states of close to 69 percent are obtained at a cutoff probability of 0.30 in the model with time‐varying intercept and slope. This study shows the importance of recognizing heterogeneous firm behavior. The ability to more accurately predict the probability of FD and to determine the financial health of firms can help financial institutions in allocating funds and policy makers in predicting crises episodes.     

The political uncertainty and stock market behavior in emerging democracy: the case of Taiwan

This paper examines the congressional effect between the pre- and post-democratization on the stock market by the asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterosce desticity (GARCH) model in the period 1984–2004. The results found that the congressional effect is negative effect on stock returns but volatility is not significant. However, the democratic effect on stock returns is negative and increased of volatility. Moreover, the congressional effect on stock market returns following democratization significantly exceeds that before democratization, but have no significant effect for the volatility in the same circumstances. These results provide evidences consistent with the contention of liberalization (Hayek, Am. Econ. Rev. 35, 519–530, Individualism and Economic order, The university of Chicago press, Chicago, London, 1945, 1948; Popper, The open society and its Enemies, Princeton university, NJ, 1950).     

Islamic equity market integration and volatility spillover between emerging and US stock markets

The purpose of this paper is to study the conditional correlations across the US market and a sample of five Islamic emerging markets, namely Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan, Qatar, and Malaysia. The empirical design uses MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) Islamic equity index since it applies stringent restrictions to include companies. Indeed, two main restrictions must be met: (i) the business activity must be compliant with Shari’ah (i.e., Islamic law) guidelines and (ii) interest-bearing investments and leverage ratios should not exceed upper limits. Three models are used: multivariate GARCH BEKK, CCC, and DCC. The estimation results of the three models show that the US and Islamic emerging equity markets are weakly correlated over time. No sheer evidence supports that the US market spills over into the Islamic emerging equity markets. Besides interpreting the results in terms of weak market integration, the peculiar specificities of the Islamic finance industry and the admittance conditions to the MSCI Islamic equity index contribute to explaining them. Indeed, Islamic finance bans interest-bearing investments and imposes some rules, such as asset-backing, which has sizeable impacts on volatility spillover and shocks transmissions, alongside with the close linkage between real and financial sectors. These findings suggest that investors should take caution when investing in the Islamic emerging equity markets and diversifying their portfolios in order to minimize risk.     

New perspectives on forecasting inflation in emerging market economies: An empirical assessment

We use a broad-range set of inflation models and pseudo out-of-sample forecasts to assess their predictive ability among 14 emerging market economies (EMEs) at different horizons (1–12 quarters ahead) with quarterly data over the period 1980Q1-2016Q4. We find, in general, that a simple arithmetic average of the current and three previous observations (the RW-AO model) consistently outperforms its standard competitors—based on the root mean squared prediction error (RMSPE) and on the accuracy in predicting the direction of change. These include conventional models based on domestic factors, existing open-economy Phillips curve-based specifications, factor-augmented models, and time-varying parameter models. Often, the RMSPE and directional accuracy gains of the RW-AO model are shown to be statistically significant. Our results are robust to forecast combinations, intercept corrections, alternative transformations of the target variable, different lag structures, and additional tests of (conditional) predictability. We argue that the RW-AO model is successful among EMEs because it is a straightforward method to downweight later data, which is a useful strategy when there are unknown structural breaks and model misspecification.     

Rent-seeking in an emerging market: A DSGE approach

Due to the fact that rent-seeking is by definition an unobservable variable, measuring its size and evolution over the business cycle can be a daunting challenge. In this article, by embedding rent-seeking behavior in an otherwise standard open-economy DSGE model, we are able to derive a quarterly time series of this variable (expressed as a percentage deviation from the trend) for an emerging economy such as Brazil. The estimated series, spanning the period 2002Q1?2017Q4, shows a strong positive correlation with the “Commodity Super Cycle” of the 2000 decade and falls as a result of some political scandals and their ensuing investigations, among other driving forces. We also rely on the same model to assess how several shocks hitting the economy affect both rent-seeking and the relevant macroeconomic variables in our model. Barring monetary expansions, increased exports and higher income transfers to households, expansionary shocks are associated with lower rent-seeking activity. Factoring in these two sets of results, the upshot is that rent-seeking behavior shows a pattern of procyclicality in the Brazilian economy.     

Performance management practices within emerging market multinational enterprises: the case of Brazilian multinationals

This study advances our understanding of HRM within emerging market multinational enterprises (EM-MNEs) by examining the extent to, and mechanisms by, which Brazilian MNEs standardise or localise their performance management (PM) policies and practices, and the factors that influence their design and implementation. We explored these issues through qualitative case studies of three Brazilian MNEs. The analysis of interview data reveals a strong tendency for Brazilian MNEs to centralise and standardise their PM policies and practices. The key finding of this paper is that PM practices within Brazilian MNEs are not based on indigenous Brazilian practices, but, rather, are heavily influenced by global best practices. The findings are at odds with previous research, which suggests that EM-MNEs apply different HR practices in developed country subsidiaries and developing country subsidiaries. Also, contrary to expectations, our results indicate that institutional distance does not have a significant influence on the adaptation of PM practices at subsidiary level.     

Measuring systemic risk of the Chinese banking industry: A wavelet-based quantile regression approach

In systemic risk measure, a large amount of literature has emerged, but few of them take into account the multi-scale natures of financial data. Considering these natures, we develop a novel W-QR-CoVaR method to measure systemic risk. To be specific, the W-QR-CoVaR method combines the wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA) with the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) method based on the quantile regression (QR) framework. We then apply it to measure the systemic risk in the Chinese banking industry covering the period from September 2007 to September 2018. Our experiment results show that the hybrid W-QR-CoVaR method performs better than the traditional CoVaR method in terms of predictive accuracy. Furthermore, we also explore the relation between the systemic risk contribution of each individual bank and the bank-specific characteristics. Size and leverage appear to be the most robustness determinants. The findings suggest that regulators should pay more attention to the banks with smaller size and higher leverage.     

Commercial banks’ expanding into securities underwriting: The equity market’s risk assessment

Government officials must decide if the payments system and deposit insurance funds would be endangered by allowing commercial banks to underwrite corporate securities. In this study the authors provide evidence on the issue by evaluating the perspectives of equity investors in investment banking concerns. Dealer exposures to capital markets (investment banking and market making) are not perceived to contribute to their marginal riskiness—either systematic or nonsystematic. However, investment exposures to capital markets (merchant banking and principal transactions) add to both systematic and nonsystematic risks of participating firms. Along with the accounting-based previous research, these findings suggest granting new securities powers that are solely dealer-based.     

Website development by nonprofit organizations in an emerging market: a case study of Thai websites

• Nonprofit organizations are pertinent players in making the world a better place. Their websites aid in fulfilling their socially beneficial missions by being a platform to present themselves, to interact with stakeholders around the world, and to perform e‐transactions to raise funds. This interdisciplinary research explores nonprofit websites in Thailand, an emerging market, to determine their progress through an adapted e‐business stage model. A manual website decoding process was used to determine the development of websites, within the sector. On average, almost three‐quarters of the websites offered interactivity and just less than half conducted online transactions, but internationally connected organizations in Thailand were significantly more likely to do so. The findings suggest that while nonprofit websites in Thailand are progressing, there is significant lag between local Thai websites and those that have international connections. While the model successfully provided new data for understanding nonprofit websites in less developed markets, it may need to be modified in future studies.

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The development of strategic manufacturing capabilities in emerging and developed markets

The purpose of this exploratory paper is to find differences in the occurrence of and the relationships between strategic capabilities for manufacturing firms in developed and emerging markets. To this end, a longitudinal approach is taken, and developments of capability structures in the two types of markets over time are analysed. By concentrating on strategic capabilities, this paper adds to the sparse literature on operations’ globalisation taking a resource-based, internal perspective.     

Contract ineffectiveness in emerging markets: An institutional theory perspective

The effectiveness of contracts is bounded by the institutional environment in which they are designed and enforced. When firms form supply chain partnerships in emerging markets, they may experience contract ineffectiveness, which is defined as a firm's perceived limits of contracts with respect to safeguarding interests and coordinating activities. Specifically, we identify two institutional factors that may give rise to contract ineffectiveness, information transparency and legal enforceability, as they determine how effectively a firm designs and enforces a contract. In addition, we reveal that contract ineffectiveness prompts a firm to seek social ties, including business ties and political ties, to overcome the institutionally induced limits of contracts. These efforts, however, are moderated by the type of predominant pressure a firm bears. While equity pressure strengthens the relationship between contract ineffectiveness and a firm's pursuit of social ties, efficiency pressure weakens this relationship, because seeking social ties imposes an extra burden of efficiency. Tested by data collected from 187 distributors in China, our study reveals the institutional causes and the consequences of contract ineffectiveness, which is a common problem encountered by firms when forming supply chain partnerships in emerging markets.     

European industry: the emerging market competitiveness challenge

As the global economy has become increasingly open to 'free' trade, European industry ‐ and, indeed, industry across the developed world ‐ has found itself faced with growing competition from low cost, emerging market countries. How is it facing up to this stiff challenge? Newspaper headlines may suggest that effort has been focused on raising trade barriers to keep competition at bay. However, such actions are a thin veneer over the very real, structural changes that are rapidly taking place. This article, by Grant Colquhoun, examines the changing structure of the EU15's trading patterns and the differential impact across manufacturing sectors. It then analyses the steps industry is taking to cope with the competitiveness challenge. As well as attempting to squeeze costs, it is clear that industry in Europe is restructuring in order to focus on higher value added activities, where it typically has a competitive advantage over emerging markets.