The outbreak of COVID-19 and stock market liquidity: Evidence from emerging and developed equity markets

The outbreak of the novel corona virus has heightened concerns surrounding the adverse financial effects of the outbreak on stock market liquidity and economic policies. This paper contributes to the emerging strand of studies examining the adverse effects of the virus on varied aspect of global markets. The paper examines the causality and co-movements between COVID-19 and the aggregate stock market liquidity of China, Australia and the G7 countries (Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Germany, the UK and the US), using daily three liquidity proxies (Amihud, Spread and Traded Value) over the period December 2019 to July 2020. Our empirical analysis encompasses wavelet coherence and phase-differences as well as a linear Granger causality test. Linear causality test results suggest that a causal relationship exists between the number of cases of COVID 19 infections and stock market liquidity. To quantitatively examine the degree of causality between COVID-19 outbreak and stock market liquidity, we employ the continuous wavelet coherence approach with results revealing the unprecedented impact of COVID-19 on stock market liquidity during the low frequency bands for countries that were hard hit with the COVID-19 outbreak, i.e., Italy, Germany, France, the UK and the US. Further, evidence shows that there is a heterogeneous lead-lag nexus across scales for the entire period of the study.     

Value at risk models for volatile emerging markets equity portfolios

This paper investigates the issue of market risk quantification for emerging and developed market equity portfolios. A very wide spectrum of popular and widely used in practice Value at Risk (VaR) models are evaluated and compared with Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and adaptive filtered models, during normal, crises, and post-crises periods. The results are interesting and indicate that despite the documented differences between emerging and developed markets, the most successful VaR models are common for both asset classes. Furthermore, in the case of the (fatter tailed) emerging market equity portfolios, most VaR models turn out to yield conservative risk forecasts, in contrast to developed market equity portfolios, where most models underestimate the realized VaR. VaR estimation during periods of financial turmoil seems to be a difficult task, particularly in the case of emerging markets and especially for the higher loss quantiles. VaR models seem to be affected less by crises periods in the case of developed markets. The performance of the parametric (non-parametric) VaR models improves (deteriorates) during post-crises periods due to the inclusion of extreme events in the estimation sample.     

The political uncertainty and stock market behavior in emerging democracy: the case of Taiwan

This paper examines the congressional effect between the pre- and post-democratization on the stock market by the asymmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterosce desticity (GARCH) model in the period 1984–2004. The results found that the congressional effect is negative effect on stock returns but volatility is not significant. However, the democratic effect on stock returns is negative and increased of volatility. Moreover, the congressional effect on stock market returns following democratization significantly exceeds that before democratization, but have no significant effect for the volatility in the same circumstances. These results provide evidences consistent with the contention of liberalization (Hayek, Am. Econ. Rev. 35, 519–530, Individualism and Economic order, The university of Chicago press, Chicago, London, 1945, 1948; Popper, The open society and its Enemies, Princeton university, NJ, 1950).     

Rent-seeking in an emerging market: A DSGE approach

Due to the fact that rent-seeking is by definition an unobservable variable, measuring its size and evolution over the business cycle can be a daunting challenge. In this article, by embedding rent-seeking behavior in an otherwise standard open-economy DSGE model, we are able to derive a quarterly time series of this variable (expressed as a percentage deviation from the trend) for an emerging economy such as Brazil. The estimated series, spanning the period 2002Q1?2017Q4, shows a strong positive correlation with the “Commodity Super Cycle” of the 2000 decade and falls as a result of some political scandals and their ensuing investigations, among other driving forces. We also rely on the same model to assess how several shocks hitting the economy affect both rent-seeking and the relevant macroeconomic variables in our model. Barring monetary expansions, increased exports and higher income transfers to households, expansionary shocks are associated with lower rent-seeking activity. Factoring in these two sets of results, the upshot is that rent-seeking behavior shows a pattern of procyclicality in the Brazilian economy.     

Performance management practices within emerging market multinational enterprises: the case of Brazilian multinationals

This study advances our understanding of HRM within emerging market multinational enterprises (EM-MNEs) by examining the extent to, and mechanisms by, which Brazilian MNEs standardise or localise their performance management (PM) policies and practices, and the factors that influence their design and implementation. We explored these issues through qualitative case studies of three Brazilian MNEs. The analysis of interview data reveals a strong tendency for Brazilian MNEs to centralise and standardise their PM policies and practices. The key finding of this paper is that PM practices within Brazilian MNEs are not based on indigenous Brazilian practices, but, rather, are heavily influenced by global best practices. The findings are at odds with previous research, which suggests that EM-MNEs apply different HR practices in developed country subsidiaries and developing country subsidiaries. Also, contrary to expectations, our results indicate that institutional distance does not have a significant influence on the adaptation of PM practices at subsidiary level.     

Contract ineffectiveness in emerging markets: An institutional theory perspective

The effectiveness of contracts is bounded by the institutional environment in which they are designed and enforced. When firms form supply chain partnerships in emerging markets, they may experience contract ineffectiveness, which is defined as a firm's perceived limits of contracts with respect to safeguarding interests and coordinating activities. Specifically, we identify two institutional factors that may give rise to contract ineffectiveness, information transparency and legal enforceability, as they determine how effectively a firm designs and enforces a contract. In addition, we reveal that contract ineffectiveness prompts a firm to seek social ties, including business ties and political ties, to overcome the institutionally induced limits of contracts. These efforts, however, are moderated by the type of predominant pressure a firm bears. While equity pressure strengthens the relationship between contract ineffectiveness and a firm's pursuit of social ties, efficiency pressure weakens this relationship, because seeking social ties imposes an extra burden of efficiency. Tested by data collected from 187 distributors in China, our study reveals the institutional causes and the consequences of contract ineffectiveness, which is a common problem encountered by firms when forming supply chain partnerships in emerging markets.     

The development of strategic manufacturing capabilities in emerging and developed markets

The purpose of this exploratory paper is to find differences in the occurrence of and the relationships between strategic capabilities for manufacturing firms in developed and emerging markets. To this end, a longitudinal approach is taken, and developments of capability structures in the two types of markets over time are analysed. By concentrating on strategic capabilities, this paper adds to the sparse literature on operations’ globalisation taking a resource-based, internal perspective.     

European industry: the emerging market competitiveness challenge

As the global economy has become increasingly open to 'free' trade, European industry ‐ and, indeed, industry across the developed world ‐ has found itself faced with growing competition from low cost, emerging market countries. How is it facing up to this stiff challenge? Newspaper headlines may suggest that effort has been focused on raising trade barriers to keep competition at bay. However, such actions are a thin veneer over the very real, structural changes that are rapidly taking place. This article, by Grant Colquhoun, examines the changing structure of the EU15's trading patterns and the differential impact across manufacturing sectors. It then analyses the steps industry is taking to cope with the competitiveness challenge. As well as attempting to squeeze costs, it is clear that industry in Europe is restructuring in order to focus on higher value added activities, where it typically has a competitive advantage over emerging markets.     

Direct and indirect effects of FDI in emerging European markets: A survey and meta-analysis

We review a large body of literature dealing with the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economies during their transformation from a command economic system toward a market system. We report the results of a meta-analysis based on the literature on externalities from FDI. The studies on emerging European markets covered in our survey report direct and indirect FDI effects weakening over time, similarly as in other FDI destination countries. This is imputable to a publication bias that is detected and to the fact that more sophisticated methods and more controls can be used once a sufficient time span is available. Panel studies are likely to find relatively lower spillover effects. The choice of the research design (definition of firm performance and foreign firm presence) matters. More specific to the sampled studies is the role played by forward and backward spillovers which dominate other channels in driving FDI externalities.     

The market for crash risk

This paper examines the equilibrium when stock market crashes can occur and investors have heterogeneous attitudes towards crash risk. The less crash averse insure the more crash averse through options markets that dynamically complete the economy. The resulting equilibrium is compared with various option pricing anomalies: the tendency of stock index options to overpredict volatility and jump risk, the Jackwerth [Recovering risk aversion from option prices and realized returns. Review of Financial Studies 13, 433–451] implicit pricing kernel puzzle, and the stochastic evolution of option prices. Crash aversion is compatible with some static option pricing puzzles, while heterogeneity partially explains dynamic puzzles. Heterogeneity also magnifies substantially the stock market impact of adverse news about fundamentals.     

Selective hedging with market views and risk limits: the case of Hydro-Quebec

This study presents how Hydro-Quebec manages its short-term financial risks. The quantitative hedging model is articulated over forward and volatility premia and constrained by a yearly risk limit provided by the firm's Finance Committee. The hedging solutions provide the optimal linear hedging parameters and option strike levels. The second part of the paper is devoted to a theoretical analysis of the sensitivity of the optimal solutions to changes in the premia, by means of the general implicit function theorem.     

Entrepreneur subsidiary of business groups from emerging markets: a multi-level perspective

International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal - This study examines the effects of firm resources on entrepreneur subsidiaries of business groups. Resource-based theory is the foundation...     

The role of U.S. Investors in international equity market inflows,outflows, and net flows for selected emerging asian markets

This paper investigates the relationship between international equity flows and returns in the eight largest emerging Asian markets from 1988 through March 2002. Both the feedback-trading hypothesis, which states that past returns affect flows, and the information hypothesis, which states that flows affect returns, are tested. Volatility effects are included, and effects of the 1997 Asian crisis on the relationships are also studied. While past studies have focused on net flows, this paper investigates outflows and inflows separately to determine whether their behavior patterns follow those of net flows.     

Illusory profitability of technical analysis in emerging foreign exchange markets

We conduct an extensive examination of the profitability of technical analysis in ten emerging foreign exchange markets. Studying 25,988 trading strategies for emerging foreign exchange markets, we find that the best rules can sometimes generate an annual mean excess return of more than 30%. Based on standard tests, we find hundreds to thousands of seemingly significant profitable strategies. However, almost all of these profits vanish once the data snooping bias is taken into account. Overall, we show that the profitability of technical analysis is illusory.     

Credit-based early warning indicators of banking crises in emerging markets

This article explores the role of credit-based variables as early warning indicators (EWIs) of banking crises in the context of emerging economies. We collect data on bank and total credit to the private sector in emerging markets and evaluate the signalling performance by using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results show that nominal credit growth and the change in the credit-to-GDP ratio have the best signalling properties and significantly outperform the credit-to-GDP gap in almost all specifications for policy-relevant horizons. These findings are in stark contrast with the results on advanced economies, where the credit-to-GDP gap is the single best performing EWI. Our results emphasize the importance of caution when applying statistical methods calibrated for advanced markets to emerging economies.     

Capital outflow liberalization and stock market reaction in an emerging market: Experience from Greece

This paper examines the response of the Greek equities market to the liberalization of capital flows during the 1992–1994 period. While past empirical research has largely examined the effects of capital inflow liberalization in emerging markets, we focus on capital outflow liberalization. In particular, we consider changes in the regulatory environment that allow domestic investors to hold foreign risky assets. Employing a time series of daily equity returns, a wealth effect is found that is indirectly linked to the announcement of capital flow liberalization. Additionally, our results reveal a significant change in the daily return distribution before and after final implementation. The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and should not be interpreted as those of their respective affiliations.     

The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets

We employ a two-stage empirical strategy to analyze the impact of macroeconomic news and central bank communication on the exchange rates of three Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies against the euro. First we estimate the nominal equilibrium exchange rate based on a monetary model. Second, we employ a high-frequency GARCH model to estimate the effects of the news and communication along with the estimated exchange rate misalignment on the exchange rate as well as its volatility. The analysis is performed during the pre-crisis (2004–2007) and crisis (2008–2009) periods. CEE currencies react to macroeconomic news during both periods in an intuitive manner that corresponds to exchange rate-related theories. However, the responsiveness of the currencies to central bank verbal interventions becomes important only during the crisis period.     

The sociology of a market analysis tool: How industry analysts sort vendors and organize markets

The information technology (IT) marketplace appears to be shaped by new kinds of specialist industry analysts that link technology supply and use through offering a commodified form of knowledge and advice. We focus on the work of one such organisation, the Gartner Group, and with how it produces a market analysis tool called the ‘Magic Quadrant’. Widely circulated amongst the IT community, the device compares and sorts vendors according to a number of more or less intangible properties (such as vendor ‘competence’ and ‘vision’). Given that potential adopters of IT systems are drawn to assess the reputation and likely behaviour of vendors, these tools play an important role in mediating choice during procurement. Our interest is in understanding how such objects are constructed as well as how they wield influence. We draw on the recent ‘performativity’ debate in Economic Sociology and the Sociology of Finance to show how Magic Quadrants are not simply describing but reshaping aspects of the IT arena. Importantly, in sketching this sociology of a market analysis tool, we also attend to the contested nature of the Magic Quadrant. Whilst Gartner attempt to establish this device as an ‘impartial’ and ‘legitimate’ arbiter of vendor performance, it is often viewed sceptically on the grounds that industry analysts are not always independent of the vendors they are assessing. Paradoxically these devices remain influential despite these sceptical assessments.     

Intraday effect of news on emerging European forex markets: An event study analysis

We analyze the impact of euro zone/German and U.S. macroeconomic news announcements and the communication of the monetary policy settings of the ECB and the Fed on the forex markets of new EU members. We employ an event study methodology to analyze intraday data from 2011–2015. Our comprehensive analysis of the wide variety of macroeconomic information during the post-GFC period shows that: (i) macroeconomic announcements affect the value of the new EU country exchange rates, (ii) the origin of the announcement matters, (iii) the type of announcement matters, (iv) different types of news (good, bad or neutral) result in different reactions, (v) markets react not only after the news release but also before, (vi) when the U.S. dollar is the base currency the impact of the news is larger than in the case of the euro, (vii) announcements on ECB monetary policy result in stronger effects than those of the Fed, (viii) temporary inefficiencies are present in new EU country forex markets, (ix) new EU country exchange rates react differently to positive US news during the EU debt crisis compared to the rest of the period.