次贷危机阴影下的英国房地产市场

美联储前主席艾伦·格林斯潘在接受英国《金融时报》采访时曾把美国当前的次贷危机评价为二战结束以来最严重的危机。而次贷危机同样也正在向英国房地产市场蔓延。这场危机加上全球经济增长减速,使英国政府措手不及。由于没有历史经验,对于这场危机的深度和广度很难估计,目前英国房价出现持续下跌的趋势。     

The measurement of rationing and the treatment of structural change in the uk mortgage market

UK mortgage markets have undergone major structural changes in the past few years, resulting in mortgages no longer being rationed. The ending of rationing has implications for the specification of empirical models of housing demand. Housing models have never adequately resolved how to incorporate unobservable mortgage rationing. Conventional proxy methods are particularly unsuitable, when rationing ceases. In this paper, we propose a new way of measuring rationing directly, which incorporates regime switching. The model of rationing is extensively tested and estimates of rationing for the period 1963–1988 are provided; these may be easily incorporated into housing demand studies.     

Spillover effects of subprime mortgage originations: The effects of single-family mortgage credit expansion on the multifamily rental market

The dramatic expansion in subprime mortgage credit fueled a remarkable boom and bust in the US housing market and created a global financial crisis. Even though considerable research examines the housing and mortgage markets during the previous decade, how the expansion in mortgage credit affected the rental market remains unclear; and yet, over 30 percent of all U.S. households reside in the rental market. Our study fills this gap by showing how the multifamily rental market was adversely affected by the development of subprime lending in the single-family market before the advent of the 2007/2008 subprime induced financial crisis. We provide evidence for a fundamentals based linkage by which the effect of an innovation in one market (i.e, the growth in subprime mortgage originations) is propagated through to another market. Using a large database of residential rental lease payment records, our results confirm that the expansion in subprime lending corresponds with an overall decline in the quality of rental payments. Finally, we present evidence showing that the financial performance of multifamily rental properties reflected the increase in rental lease defaults.     

Option introduction and insider trading in the NASDAQ/NMS equity market

This paper investigates and supports the hypothesis that insiders have an incentive to shift their informed trading activities when options initially are listed for a firm. Firm size is found to be related to the level of insider trading activity. There is a significant decrease in insider equity-market volume for the smallest third of firms, a significant increase in insider-equity market volume for the middle third of firms, and a significant decrease in insider equity-market volume for the largest third of firms. This supports the hypothesis of a difference in the degree of impact on equity volume upon option introduction based upon firm size. This research provides additional evidence of informed trading activities when option introduction, insider trading, and firm size are considered simultaneously.     

住宅抵押贷款证券化亟待解决的问题

住宅抵押贷款证券化 (Ｍｏｒｔｇａｇｅ ＢａｃｋｅｄＳｅｃｕｒｉ ｔｉｅｓ)起源于美国 ,是房地产证券化的一种特殊形式。它是指抵押权人将原始的住宅抵押款汇集重组成新的抵押品组合 (ＭｏｒｔｇａｇｅＰｏｏｌ) ,经信用担保机构信用增强后 ,由特设机构 (ＳｐｅｃｉａｌＰｕｒｐｏｓｅＶｅｈｉｃｌｅ)在资本市场上发行和销售这类证券的过程。住宅抵押贷款证券化能够实现间接融资和直接融资的有机结合 ,提高住宅抵押贷款的流动性、安全性和盈利性 ,对房地产业的发展有着深远影响。正是有这些优点 ,住宅抵押贷款证券化被许多国家采用。目前 …     

Explanation for market response to seasoned equity offerings

In this paper, we use a multivariate framework to extend the recent univariate seasoned equity offering (SEO) research that investigated the valuation impact of inside ownership. Our multivariate findings re-enforce and add to the univariate findings as we show that the inside ownership level is a consistent factor in accounting for short-run and long-run returns around SEOs, while the decrease in inside ownership has no impact on short-run returns but influences long-run returns in a manner inconsistent with signaling theory. Compared to prior research, our regression tests do a much better job of accounting for returns associated with SEO announcements. For short-run regression tests, the four major factors associated with superior stock returns are: lower underpricing; greater profitability prior to SEO; lower inside ownership level; and, less stock price variability prior to SEO. For long-run regression tests, the four major conditions linked to superior returns are: greater profitability prior to SEO; smaller inside ownership level; relative size of the offering; and, greater decrease in inside ownership level.     

The dynamics of Central European equity market comovements

This paper examines short-term and long-term comovements between developed European Union (EU) stock markets and those of three Central European (CE) countries which recently joined the EU. Dynamic cointegration and principal components methods are applied, in addition to static tests. While we find no evidence of cointegration for the period July 1995–February 2005 as a whole, dynamic tests reveal alternating period of cointegration disrupted by episodes dominated by short-term domestic factors. Principal components analysis reveals that a stable factor explains a large proportion of return variances. Ultimately, despite the decade-long process of alignment by CE countries with the EU, evidence of steadily increasing convergence of equity markets is lacking.     

住房反向抵押贷款与传统抵押贷款的对比分析

住房反向抵押贷款本质是以房屋融通资金,并以此为核心拉动养老、保险、房地产等多项社会活动.将反向抵押贷款和传统的抵押贷款对比分析可以更好的理解两种模式的特点和运作.用同一性分析和差异性分析对两种抵押贷款在基本属性和运作上的进行探讨.而组合性分析则是对两种抵押贷款在计算和操作上的分析.     

Managerial quality,financial structure and signalling: A test of pricing efficiency in the UK equity securities market

This paper seeks to ascertain if stock market pricing procedures are operationally efficient in setting prices so as to discriminate against poor-quality management. Signalling theory suggests management's leverage decision as the means by which managerial quality can be identified. Departures from average leverage, given firm characteristics, are interpreted as indicating managerial quality. Ordinary least-squares regression analysis is used to identify these departures, and to test if shareholders' yields are responsive to them. The results are not always statistically significant, but do provide some support for the signalling hypothesis and for the efficiency of UK security pricing.     

Payment shock and mortgage performance

The effect of payment shocks on subprime hybrid ARM mortgage prepayment and delinquency is examined. Using loan level data from private label securities, we modeled the effects of payment shocks on mortgage performance. Our study provided interesting empirical results in three main areas: First, we addressed the effect of payment shocks on subsequent mortgage delinquency. Second, we studied how the effect of payment shocks varies and decays over time. Third, we disentangled the impact of payment shocks based on the reason for the shocks: payment shock due to the expiration of a teaser rate (i.e. “teaser shock”) versus the payment shock due to index rate changes at the time of reset (i.e. “market rate shock”).We find that the effect of payment shock on loan performance varies by the delinquency status of the loan at the time of the shock. That is, the payment shock has the most significant effect on “current” loans rather than loans already in delinquency. Also of note, we find that the effect of a payment shock decays only gradually over time. We find that the impact of “teaser shocks” and “market rate shocks” on mortgage performance do not differ substantially, even though teaser shocks may be somewhat more predictable than market rate shocks. This suggests that either subprime ARM borrowers did not fully understand the product and the extent of the shock at the first reset date or that financially strapped borrowers used the product to speculate and were caught by the teaser shock when they were unable to refinance or sell (i.e. “flip”) their properties .The study suggests that any modification plan designed to eliminate potential payment shocks or to otherwise lower payments will be most effective for loans that are currently performing rather than loans that are already in delinquency.     

The outbreak of COVID-19 and stock market liquidity: Evidence from emerging and developed equity markets

The outbreak of the novel corona virus has heightened concerns surrounding the adverse financial effects of the outbreak on stock market liquidity and economic policies. This paper contributes to the emerging strand of studies examining the adverse effects of the virus on varied aspect of global markets. The paper examines the causality and co-movements between COVID-19 and the aggregate stock market liquidity of China, Australia and the G7 countries (Canada, France, Italy, Japan, Germany, the UK and the US), using daily three liquidity proxies (Amihud, Spread and Traded Value) over the period December 2019 to July 2020. Our empirical analysis encompasses wavelet coherence and phase-differences as well as a linear Granger causality test. Linear causality test results suggest that a causal relationship exists between the number of cases of COVID 19 infections and stock market liquidity. To quantitatively examine the degree of causality between COVID-19 outbreak and stock market liquidity, we employ the continuous wavelet coherence approach with results revealing the unprecedented impact of COVID-19 on stock market liquidity during the low frequency bands for countries that were hard hit with the COVID-19 outbreak, i.e., Italy, Germany, France, the UK and the US. Further, evidence shows that there is a heterogeneous lead-lag nexus across scales for the entire period of the study.     

住房抵押贷款证券化中的宏观收益分析

本文对我国政府在住房抵押贷款证券化中的宏观社会收益和成本进行分析和比较,并对政府在制度创新中的地位与作用进行了研究与探讨。     

Returns-to-scale and the equity premium puzzle

A model of heterogenous firms facing idiosyncratic risk is proposed which generates an equity premium of 6 per cent and a risk-free rate of 1.5 per cent even if aggregate returns are risk-free. The premium in this model reflects diminishing returns-to-scale and the fact that equity shares are equal claims to firm output. In the bond market, the risk-free rate reflects trade in assets at marginal rates of return with a linear technology and thus the equity premium in excess returns reflects a comparison of average returns with marginal returns. In the model, credit constraints lower the equity premium and, absent such constraints, the equity premium would roughly double. Since the model may be interpreted as a model of entrepreneurship, this paper also presents estimates from a structural model of entrepreneurship using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances and also finds only a modest level of risk aversion is sufficient to replicate entrepreneurial returns.     

我国住房抵押贷款证券化中SPV的构建

本文从我国住房抵押贷款证券化中SPV的性质、作用入手,以其核心思想"破产隔离"为线索,通过分析SPV业务范围、构建的影响因素,借鉴SPV构建的国际模式以及结合国内的实际情况,对我国目前的住房抵押贷款证券化中SPV的构建进行了详尽的分析.     

The sub-prime mortgage crisis and the changing value of cash

We use an event study methodology to examine the cross-sectional differences in the marginal value of cash before and during the sub-prime mortgage crisis. We document that the marginal value of cash is significantly lower in the crisis period than in the pre-crisis period. Additionally, for the pre-crisis period, we find an inverse relation between the level of cash holdings and the marginal value of cash. Our results still hold after segregating our sample into constrained and unconstrained groups.     

An anomaly in the pricing of bank non-interest mortgage charges

This paper uses a monopolistically competitive model to study the determinants of bank mortgage charges. The study shows that concentration and the loan-price ratio do not have significant effects on the bank mortgage charges. Significantly, the charges are found to be positively related to the number of banks and bank offices in a given market and inversely related to the market size or population. (JEL L130, G210)     

Negative equity and wages

We examine the relationship between housing equity and wage earnings using nine waves of the national American Housing Survey from 1985 to 2003. Employing a rich set of time and place controls, a synthetic mortgage instrumental variable strategy, and a first difference estimator we find that people underwater on their mortgage command a significantly lower wage than other homeowners. The finding survives a number of robustness checks for reverse causality and unobserved heterogeneity. We also explore other determinants of “house lock” including loss aversion, a low existing mortgage interest rate and property tax assessment caps, but do not find these factors mitigate the effect of negative equity on wages.     

Size of home,homeownership, and the mortgage interest deduction

This paper offers an empirical test of the effect of the mortgage interest deduction (MID) on both the extensive (own vs. rent) and intensive (size of home) housing purchase margins. Using state level differences in MID availability to identify, I examine this relationship using standard ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, and sample selection estimation techniques. I find the MID to be responsible for a 10.9–18.4% increase in the size of home purchased, but that no relationship exists between the MID and home ownership. These results imply an elasticity of home size with respect to changes in user cost between ?1 and ?1.4.     

次贷危机背景下债务抵押证券计量问题探讨

美国次贷危机背景下债务抵押证券的会计计量引起了国内外的广泛关注。本文结合美国财务会计准则委员会对于债务抵押证券的计量规范,对我国新会计准则中的相关处理进行了探讨。