金融行业间的资产风险外溢影响

银行业、保险业和证券业因投资业务而构建起联系，并基于金融资产价格而具有了传染渠道。随着投资活动愈发频繁，金融行业中各行业内部的资产风险可能外溢至其他行业。本文首先从理论上分析金融行业资产风险通过投资资产外溢的过程，通过搭建资产抛售模型模拟资产风险的传染机制，从机构层面和行业层面分析资产风险的生成与传递。其次，基于金融机构实际数据的模拟分析结果显示，四大国有商业银行和中国平安具有外溢风险的能力，首先影响银行和保险公司，随后再扩散到整个金融行业，而证券业则相对较为独立。银行业的外溢影响最大，其次是保险业和证券业。但事实上很难发生足以对外部造成显著影响的损失事件。资产、投资比例、杠杆和监管要求水平在资产风险外溢的过程中具有一定的影响。     

Multivariate GARCH analysis of Fannie Mae,Freddie Mac,and American International Group: Did the short-selling ban reduce systemic return-risk?

This paper uses a multivariate GARCH framework to examine how the 2008 moratorium on short-selling affected the systemic return-risk across three firms at the center of the subprime mortgage crises: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest buyers of US home mortgages; and American International Group, a major insurer of mortgage-backed securities. Wald coefficient tests indicate shocks in prior day returns manifest less systemic return-risk under the short-selling ban, thus coinciding with the regulatory intentions of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), to “moderate the sudden and excessive fluctuations in securities prices.” The findings also agree with prior work in observing abnormal-negative returns for heavily shorted firms, and diminished negative skewness and kurtosis under binding short-selling constraints.     

Idiosyncratic risk,market risk and correlation dynamics in the US real estate investment trusts

This study examines total, market and idiosyncratic risk and correlation dynamics using weekly return data on two US REIT firm samples from 1988 to 2008. We find that both market and idiosyncratic variance are time-varying and that idiosyncratic variance represents a dominant component of a REIT firm’s total variance. We find a decline in idiosyncratic risk as well as a rise in average REIT correlation during the new REIT era, from 1993 to 2008. This recent downward trend of idiosyncratic risk among REITs is different to the stylized upward trend of idiosyncratic risk among stocks. There is bi-lateral Granger causality between the market and idiosyncratic risks. Finally, we detect a positive relationship between the idiosyncratic risk and expected returns, implying that the risk premium of REITs is positively related to the idiosyncratic risk during the period new REIT era, 1993–2008. Our results have important asset-pricing implications for under-diversified investors.     

金融创新、金融风险与我国金融监管模式研究

本文认为,金融创新的产生对宏观政策的制定、金融市场运行、商业银行透明度都有影响,金融创新能够管理和控制金融风险,也能加剧金融风险的扩大,对金融稳定性会产生很大的负面影响。我国的金融监管应建立健全银行、证券、保险监管机构间以及同宏观调控部门的协调机制,通过中国金融监督管理委员会与国际性金融监管组织的合作,积极参与国际金融监管准则的制定,借鉴国外金融监管经验,不断提高金融监管的专业化水平。     

Franchise Value Change Information of State-owned Commercial Bank and Securities Investment Risk

The investment strategy choice of state-owned commercial bank is related to its franchise value change information. This paper analyzes the franchise value change information of state-owned commercial bank. The franchise value change information shows that the franchise value of state-owned Commercial Bank is descending. Along with the descending of the franchise value, state-owned commercial bank strengthens its high risk investment motive when it chooses its investment strategy. State-owned commercial bank tends to run the high risk of investing securities because its investment variety is very sparse. Based on the theoretical principle of how to control securities investment risk, this paper proposes some countermeasures and suggestions that state-owned commercial bank strengthen the control of its securities investment risk in order to perfect its investment strategy.     

融资融券交易价格发现功能研究——基于标的证券确定与调整的视角

作为一项基础性证券制度,融资融券交易通常具有价格发现功能。为了更加清晰地认识融资融券交易的价格发现功能,文章利用沪深证券市场融资融券标的证券确定与调整事件进行实证分析。研究结果表明,融资融券交易的业务发展失衡,融资交易有助于提升标的证券的市场价格,融资融券交易的价格发现功能有待进一步发挥。     

证券投资基金持股与管理者过度投资行为的相关性研究

基于沪深A股上市公司2008年-2010年的研究数据,分析了证券投资基金持股对企业过度投资的影响。研究发现,证券投资基金持股比例与管理者过度投资显著负相关,证券投资基金能有效抑制管理者的过度投资行为;进一步研究发现,证券投资基金持股比例越高,上市公司派发现金股利水平越高,并且证券投资基金持股在一定程度上能够抑制上市公司恶意派现的现象。     

房地产投资信托基金的产品优势及其在我国推行的必要性

作为结合房地产与证券市场的投融资工具,房地产投资信托基金相对于股票、债券等具有长期收益率高、风险较低的特征,对机构投资者具有资产配置作用。与直接投资不动产和房地产公司相比也具有独特的产品优势。房地产投资信托基金的引入具有重要的现实意义:有利于我国房地产业的持续健康发展;促进我国房地产业产业模式升级;满足大众投资需求,实现居民储蓄分流;分散降低系统性风险,提高金融安全;实现房地产金融业的"帕累托改进"。我国应尽快推行本土化房地产投资信托基金。     

Do short selling restrictions destabilize stock markets? Lessons from Taiwan

Short sellers have been routinely blamed for triggering, or exacerbating, stock market declines. The experience of Taiwan provides an interesting case study of the impact of short selling bans on stock returns volatility in a time series framework due to the length of time the short selling ban was in place there. Estimating several variants of an asymmetric GARCH model and a Markov switching GARCH model we find robust evidence that short selling restrictions raise stock returns volatility. The only qualifier is that the impact of short sale bans is a feature of the expansionary phase of business cycles. During recessions this effect dissipates.     

Risk spillover analysis of China’s financial sectors based on a new GARCH copula quantile regression model

This study employs a new GARCH copula quantile regression model to estimate the conditional value at risk for systemic risk spillover analysis. To be specific, thirteen copula quantile regression models are derived to capture the asymmetry and nonlinearity of the tail dependence between financial returns. Using Chinese stock market data over the period from January 2007 to October 2020, this paper investigates the risk spillovers from the banking, securities, and insurance sectors to the entire financial system. The empirical results indicate that (i) three financial sectors contribute significantly to the financial system, and the insurance sector displays the largest risk spillover effects on the financial system, followed by the banking sector and subsequently the securities sector; (ii) the time-varying risk spillovers are much larger during the global financial crisis than during the periods of the banking liquidity crisis, the stock market crash and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results provide important implications for supervisory authorities and portfolio managers who want to maintain the stability of China’s financial system and optimize investment portfolios.     

卖空、保证金与最优投资组合

本文主要分析单阶段、均值一方差框架下，在允许卖空，但有保证金约束的金融市场中，投资者如何构建其最优投资组合的问题。我们提出了上述金融市场中的投资组合优化模型，并用数值例子比较了自由卖空、有保证金约束的卖空与禁止卖空三种情况下的最优投资组合，结果显示，保证金约束卖空下的有效前沿劣于自由卖空下的有效前沿，优于禁止卖空下的有效前沿。     

基于回归分析的创业板上市公司财务风险研究

创业板市场的运行为我国证券市场的发展注入了新鲜血液,它的推出有效缓解了长期困扰我国高科技中小企业"融资难"的问题。但是,创业板市场伴随而来的高风险引起了市场各方的高度关注。本文采用回归分析的研究方法,对创业板上市公司财务风险的影响因素进行了分析,实证研究结果表明,创业板上市公司的财务风险与股权规模负相关,与企业的偿债能力、盈利能力、营运能力、发展能力、投资收益和现金流量不具有明显的线性相关关系。文章进一步提出了创业板上市公司财务风险控制的措施。     

REITs发展对中国房地产融资的启示

本文基于国内房地产业开发融资所面临的渠道少、资源匮乏现状,结合国外REITs市场发展经验,比较分析了代表市场发行REITs的市场准入条件和市场优势。对国内发行REITs进行了可行性论证,并结合中国房地产业特点,对REITs的立法及运作思路提出参考方案。     

Value-Driving Activities in Euro-Zone Banks

We develop and test accounting-based valuation models for commercial banks. We extend Begley et al.'s framework (2006) and propose a valuation model where goodwill is generated by virtually all commercial and investment banking activities. Key features of our model are: the development of a relation between future cash flows from fee income and the bank value that depends on lending, borrowing and off-balance sheet business; and the inclusion of proprietary investment and trading as value-driving activities. Empirical tests on a sample of Euro-zone banks from 1998 to 2006 provide the following evidence. Unrealised expected cash flows from fee income are the most important source of unrecorded goodwill. This is consistent with the increasing importance of revenue from the sale of financial services to banks' income. The contribution of fee income to goodwill is higher for banks with large deposits and new loans. Equity securities are a source of unrecorded goodwill, but the introduction of fair value accounting, with the adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), reduces their valuation role. Yet equity securities remain positively associated with unrecorded goodwill after IFRS adoption, suggesting that the fair value standards do not fully capture market expectations about future cash flows of investment assets.     

REITs与类似概念比较分析

房地产业是资金密集型行业,根据国外发展经验,房地产市场发展到一定阶段必将启动投资市场和资产证券化市场.尤其近几年,政府对房地产宏观调控更是加快了我国房地产行业和金融行业的全面结合,而REITs作为目前最能够有效融合房地产、投资、资产证券化这三个市场工具,无疑成为备受关注和青睐的房地产金融产产品.但目前RE-ITS在国内还是一个新生事物,处于起步和探索阶段,对REITs定义比较混乱,尤其普遍存在房地产信托、房地产产业投资基金、上市房地产公司和REITs概念的混淆问题.因此笔者在阐述REITs概念及特点的基础上,对此进行了比较分析.     

Short sale and stock returns: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Exchange

Using short sale data of the Taiwan Stock Exchange from January 1991 to September 2004, we examine the informational role played by short interest in stock price formation. Consistent with previous findings based on the US and Australian stock markets, our results show that heavily shorted stocks generate significant and negative risk-adjusted abnormal returns. Moreover, the negative abnormal returns decrease in magnitude and also become statistically insignificant as the holding period extends from 1 month to 1 year. In addition, we test the effect on stock price overvaluation of the interaction of a short sale constraint and a dispersion of opinion. When using turnover ratio as a proxy for a dispersion of opinion, we find that even when the holding period is 6 months, the overvaluation is still significant. Moreover, when a high degree of a dispersion of opinion is captured by a high relative short interest and a high relative margin trade level, the overvaluation remains statistically significant even for a 1-year holding period.     

证券金融公司:功能、性质及其制度构建

证券金融公司是融资融券交易中转融通制度的重要组成部分,设立证券金融公司在沟通货币市场和资本市场、扩大证券公司的融资融券渠道、分散市场风险等方面具有重要的功能和价值。通过与其他相似金融机构的制度比较,应将证券金融公司归为一种新型的非银行类金融机构。同时,在证券金融公司的制度构建上,应重点从证券金融公司的制度定位、立法形式、监管主体、业务范围等方面考量。     

Short sale constraints,dispersion of opinion,and stock overvaluation: Evidence from earnings announcements in China

Using a clean setting in China, we test the Miller (1977) hypothesis that stocks are overvalued in the presence of short sale constraints and dispersion of opinion as an extension of Berkman et al. (2009). We find that stocks with short sale constraints have significantly negative abnormal returns during earnings announcement periods, especially when investors have diverse opinions. These results are robust to alternative measures of abnormal returns and endogeneity concern. The findings help to explain the impact of short sale constraints on pricing efficiency and have important policy implications for relaxing restrictions on short selling and improving regular information disclosure in emerging markets.     

REITs在我国的发展模式及组织体系研究

自2003年6月央行发布121号文件以来,国家对房地产信贷提高了门槛,04年9月央行212号文件又大幅提高了房地产信托的进入门槛,REITs作为一种新的融资渠道受到广泛关注,加之香港REITs取消了投资地域的限制,内地房地产商跃跃欲试,在这一背景下笔者研究了REITs的投资特性、收益、风险、结构及模式,对我国目前发展REITs的组织体系及面临问题进行分析,旨在为REITs的引入提供思路。     

Extreme US stock market fluctuations in the wake of 9/11

We apply extreme value analysis to US sectoral stock indices in order to assess whether tail risk measures like value‐at‐risk and extremal linkages were significantly altered by 9/11. We test whether semi‐parametric quantile estimates of ‘downside risk’ and ‘upward potential’ have increased after 9/11. The same methodology allows one to estimate probabilities of joint booms and busts for pairs of sectoral indices or for a sectoral index and a market portfolio. The latter probabilities measure the sectoral response to macro shocks during periods of financial stress (so‐called ‘tail‐βs’). Taking 9/11 as the sample midpoint we find that tail‐βs often increase in a statistically and economically significant way. This might be due to perceived risk of new terrorist attacks. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.