Growth Patterns and Inequality in the Presence of Costly Technology Adoption

The stylized facts that motivate this article include the diversity in growth patterns that are observed across countries during the process of economic development and the divergence over time in income distributions both within and across countries. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model in which technology adoption is costly and agents are heterogeneous in their initial holdings of resources. We interpret the adoption cost as the resources expended in acquiring skills associated with new technologies. Endogenous growth occurs in our model largely as a result of human capital deepening. The analytical results of the model characterize three growth outcomes associated with the technology adoption process depending on productivity differences between the technologies. These outcomes are labeled ‘poverty trap,’ ‘dual economy,’ and ‘balanced growth.’ The model is then capable of explaining the observed diversity in growth patterns in addition to the divergence of incomes over time and across countries.     

Poverty and Other Determinants of Child Labor in Bangladesh

In this research we examine poverty and other determinants of child labor in Bangladesh. We define income quintiles as a means of measuring family poverty and add child and family characteristics to our model. We estimate the likelihood that a child will work, using separate logistic regression models for younger and older boys and girls in urban and rural areas. Our results support the notion that a family's poverty affects the probability that a child will work; keeping children away from work is a luxury these families cannot afford. Moreover, it is important to examine separate demographic groups in order to fully understand the determinants of child labor in Bangladesh since the effects of child and family variables on the probability that a child will work differ among these groups.     

发展、分配对反贫困的影响:2002—2010

文章通过分解FGT贫困指数,模拟出2002-2010年中国的经济发展和收入分配各自对反贫困的贡献率。实证结果发现,当前以发展促减贫的开发式扶贫政策依然有效,但是收入分配恶化却拖累了发展带来的减贫成效,且对反贫困的影响越来越大。必须及时调整反贫困战略,通过改善收入再分配让贫困人群分享改革发展的成果。     

Technology Transfer,Income Distribution and the Process of Economic Development

This paper studies the role of income distribution and technology transfer in the process of economic development. A novel aspect of the model is that the composition of human capital as well as the level affect economic growth. Utilizing an overlapping-generations model in which income distribution changes endogenously, we present an economic explanation for why some countries could not start modern economic growth; why some countries took off but have apparently stopped growing after some time; and why some countries have successfully developed and continue to grow.     

中国经济如何跨越中高等收入陷阱

我国2010年人均GDP已经突破3945美元,根据世界银行对世界各经济体的最新分类标准,我国已经步入中高等收入国家行列,但与此同时我国的收入差距不断拉大。如何将收入差距控制在合理范围内,成功地跨越中高等收入陷阱是当前的紧要问题。本文通过对我国人均GDP及其基尼系数的协整检验发现,我国经济增长与收入分配之间存在一种稳定的长期均衡关系。只有合理的处理我国的收入分配差距问题才能达到经济的持续发展,从而跨越高中等收入陷阱。     

Inward and outward foreign direct investment and poverty: East Asia vs. Latin America

Using panel data of 12 middle-income countries in East Asia as well as Latin America, this paper examines how openness in general and outward FDI in particular affects poverty. While economic growth and trade openness are found to be associated with lower poverty, both outward and inward FDI adversely affect the mean income of the poorest quintile of the population. The results hold in both regions, though the Latin American countries seem to be in a somewhat less favorable situation.     

An Analysis of Welfare Changes in Zimbabwe*

Abstract: This paper presents a brief account of welfare changes in Zimbabwe along the income and education dimensions between 1995 and 2003. Using sequential dominance procedures, we find that education attainment substantially improved over time. However, these gains did not necessarily translate into poverty reduction, rather welfare over the joint distribution of income and education dramatically deteriorated. These results are robust for all education partitions, income thresholds and a broad class of welfare indices. A further inquiry into the factors underlying this apparent disconnection between education and income using decomposition techniques reveals that the increase in poverty incidence cannot be attributed to household characteristics but is reflective of the broader socio‐economic trends prevailing at the time. The decline in economic growth contributed tremendously to the decline in welfare while inequality changes account for a small proportion.     

Identifying income heterogeneity determinants using the method of moments quantile regression

Prior studies have typically concentrated on poverty status to determine anti-poverty measures; however, this approach cannot sufficiently detect income heterogeneity. This study employs quantile regression for panel data to investigate the Korean Labour and Income Panel Study 2003–2020. Moreover, it adopts both household- and community-level variables and separates demographic groups as working-age and older adults, considering Korea's severe old-age poverty. The findings indicate that household-level characteristics, such as householder's gender, physical health, and employment status, present heterogeneous effects across the income distribution. Second, low-income households are more vulnerable to regional economic and labour market downturns than high-income neighbours. Lastly, although the National Pension, a backbone of the public pension system, provides limited supports for retirees because it was introduced much later than other countries, it assists low-income old adults more effectively. Therefore, this study suggests more tailored redistribution measures, considering heterogeneous effects of household- and community-level environments, and a further expansion of the National Pension to mitigate old-age poverty.     

基于经济增长的新疆减贫效果趋势分析

经济增长和减贫一直是发展中国家和地区制定发展战略所考虑的重点。改革开放初期,新疆通过经济增长极大地降低了农村贫困,经济增长的减贫效果显著;20世纪80年代中后期至2010年,由于经济增长的质量下降和收入不平等程度增加,减贫趋势变缓;2011年以后,随着援疆工作和民生工程的不断推进,高速的经济增长和对贫困人口有利的收入分配对减贫起到了良好的效果,经济增长出现了益贫性特征。纵观改革开放至今,新疆减贫成就的主要原因是经济持续的高速增长、人力资本的明显改善和政府采取的反贫困行动;而其减贫趋势放缓的原因是农村经济增长质量的下降和农村收入分配的不断恶化。为此,本文认为新时期扶贫工作中,新疆应实施益贫式增长战略。从生产领域着手,在增加就业的同时通过增加穷人的资产基础以提高穷人的自我发展能力,而政府在打造民生工程时应注重市场机制,以保持减贫的可持续性。     

The Poverty of Politics: How Income Redistribution Hurts the Poor

In spite of the significant research literature identifying a tradeoff between income redistribution and economic growth, massive public programs have been implemented to help the poor by transferring income to them. Since Lyndon Johnson's war on poverty began in 1964, over 3.5 trillion dollars have been transferred. However, the possibility that everyone, including the poor, may in fact be made worse off by the transfer has largely been ignored. With a simple algebraic model, the authors demonstrate that, over time, both high and low-income groups are harmed by redistribution. In addition, social mobility, as well as political concerns with relative poverty and international income redistribution increases the damage to all income groups produced by redistribution.     

Revisiting growth and poverty reduction in Indonesia: what do subnational data show?

Indonesia has an impressive record of economic growth and poverty reduction over the past two decades. The growth-poverty nexus appears strong at the aggregate level. However, newly constructed panel data on the country's 285 districts reveal huge differences in poverty change, subnational economic growth and local attributes across the country. The results of econometric analysis show that growth is not the only factor to affect the rate of poverty change; other factors also directly influence the welfare of the poor, as well as having an indirect effect through their impact on growth itself. Among the critical ones are infrastructure, human capital, agricultural price incentives and access to technology. While fostering economic growth is crucial, a more complete poverty reduction strategy should take these relevant factors into account. In the context of ecentralisation, subnational analysis can be an instructive approach to examining local governance in relation to growth and poverty reduction.     

Interaction between theory and observation in development

The author reviews empirical research carried out over the past 30 years with respect to the process of development. He first examines the extent to which economic theories and generalizations derived from the experience of the developed countries are relevant to the developing countries. He next explores the relationship between the ‘structural transformation’ that occurs in the process of development and economic growth, summarizing his own current research on several issues. Finally he compares applications of the neoclassical growth model to both the more advanced countries, whose economic transformation is near completion, and the developing countries still in the process of structural transformation. The author argues that further empirical work can reduce the controversy between neoclassical and structural approaches to development by making possible the formulation of computable models in which the distinction between developing and developed countries can be largely reduced to observable differences in certain statistical parameters: initial conditions, price and income elasticities, and adjustment lags.     

Is Globalization Reducing Poverty and Inequality?

Over the past 20 years or so India, China, and the rest of East Asia, experienced fast economic growth and falls in the poverty rate, Latin America stagnated, the former Soviet Union, Central and Eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa regressed. But what are the net trends? The neoliberal argument says that world poverty and income inequality fell over the past two decades for the first time in more than a century and a half, thanks to the rising density of economic integration across national borders. The evidence therefore confirms that globalization in the context of the world economic regime in place since the end of Bretton Woods generates more “mutual benefit” than “conflicting interests.” This paper questions the empirical basis of the neoliberal argument.     

Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan

Trade liberalization policies have been adopted by many developing countries to increase economic growth and reduce poverty. While the positive relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth is generally well accepted, the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality is still unclear. The objective of this paper is to use real data and real trade agreements of the state of Pakistan, to examine the predictions made by trade models about the impact of trade liberalization on income inequality. To illustrate, the impacts of several alternative bilateral and regional free trade agreements are simulated on household income and income inequality in Pakistan. The results show that trade liberalization does not always lead to a decline in income inequality in the short run. Trade agreements that do improve income equality, favor agriculture and often hinge on a decline in urban and non-farm household income. In the long run, changes in income equality are more positive, suggesting that efforts might best be applied towards improving the mobility of labor and capital.     

The growth,poverty and inequality nexus in South Africa: Cointegration and causality analysis

This study empirically established the long-run relationship and causality effects that exist between growth, poverty and inequality. The analysis was carried out on a panel of nine South African provinces from 1995 to 2012. To capture poverty and inequality in a broader context, two measures of poverty (income and non-income) and three measures of inequality (income, education and land) were adopted for the study. The results confirm that there is a long-run relationship between growth, poverty and inequality. Notable results from the causality tests suggest that growth does not promote equal distribution of income in society but as income distribution begins to equalise, economic growth rises. This is regarded as growth–inequality disconnect. The unidirectional causality, which runs from income poverty to income inequality, suggests that a rising level of income poverty will lead to falling income inequality in the society; likewise, income inequality increases as non-income poverty declines.     

经济增长与收入分布对新疆城市居民贫困变动的影响

本文采用相对贫困线方法研究新疆城市居民2000年与2003年的贫困变化程度,利用FGT(Foster-Greer-Thorbecke)贫困指数分析了新疆城市居民的贫困率、贫困差距、贫困深度的变化,通过贫困指数FGT变化的分解分析,说明经济增长提高可支配收入有助于减少贫困,收入分布差距的减少也是减少贫困程度的重要因素之一。     

Innovations and manufacturing export performance in the OECD countries

This paper addresses two puzzles in international trade, namelywhy traditional estimates of income elasticities of exportsare implausibly high and why export growth varies much moremarkedly across countries than can be explained by changes inprice competitiveness and variations in income growth in exportmarkets. Using data for 18 OECD countries it is shown that marketintegration and the level of technology and competitivenesscan, to some extent, explain these two puzzles.     

Public Health Conditions and Policies in the Asia Pacific region

Health has improved dramatically in Asia over the last 40 years. Infant mortality dropped over 60 per cent and life expectancy increased by 40 per cent. Despite these gains, health outcomes remain relatively low in many Asian countries, and vary tremendously by region, income level and demographic group. Little progress has been made, for example, in decreasing maternal mortality. Asia is experiencing an epidemiological transition from a high burden of communicable diseases to a high burden of non-communicable diseases. The pace of this transition varies across countries, and some countries will experience increasing incidence of non-communicable diseases before the level of communicable diseases has decreased. Ill-health imposes a heavy economic cost: HIV/AIDS may reduce economic growth in some countries. As incomes and expectations rise, the demand for health care also rises and one of the greatest challenges facing Asia is how to provide and finance this care.     

Poverty incidence and economic growth in Southeast Asia

The countries of Southeast Asia have achieved very large reductions in absolute poverty incidence over recent decades. This paper examines the relationship between this accomplishment and the rate of economic growth. It develops a time series of available data on the headcount measure of poverty incidence for Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines over the period from the 1960s to 1999, in aggregate and in both rural and urban areas. It then uses this pooled data set to analyze the economic determinants of poverty incidence, the impact of the 1997 economic crisis and the degree to which poverty will be affected by alternative hypothetical recovery paths.     

Investigating the linkage between infrastructure and regional development in India: era of planning to globalisation

The paper tries to find out the role played by economic and social infrastructure facilities in economic development across Indian states over the last quarter century. Infrastructure services have been indexed with the help of principal component analysis. Both parametric and non-parametric estimates are done to assess per capita income disparity. A comparative static framework is developed for testing the nature of movement of the development trajectory in income infrastructure plane over different time spans. The findings are statistically very significant to warrant new regional policies under the overall framework of globalisation in order to remove rising regional disparities in both infrastructure and income. This has a strong bearing on the success of poverty removal policies under globalisation as the poor are regionally concentrated in such diverse and heterogeneous country.