The limits to growth — Malthus revived

The publication of “The Limits to Growth — A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind” has resulted in a world-wide discussion of this vital issue. The following article reviews different aspects of the study.     

轻松乘机莫担忧

近期,冰岛火山灰致使诸多航班停飞,几起空难又相继发生,这让人们心惊之余,对航空安全有了更多的担忧。但全球化的商务活动使我们又不能摒弃这种出行方式。其实根据统计数据,一个乘客坐一次航班,遇到空难的概     

On commodity price limits

This paper examines the behavior of futures prices and trader positions around the occurrence of price limits in commodity futures markets. We ask whether limit events are the result of shocks to fundamental volatility or the result of temporary volatility induced by the trading of noncommercial market participants (speculators). We find little evidence that limits events are the result of speculative activity, but instead associated with shocks to fundamentals that lead to persistent price changes. When futures trading halts price discovery migrates to options markets, but option prices provide a biased estimate of subsequent future prices when trading resumes.     

The limits of leverage

When trading incurs proportional costs, leverage can scale an asset's return only up to a maximum multiple, which is sensitive to its volatility and liquidity. In a model with one safe and one risky asset, with constant investment opportunities and proportional costs, we find strategies that maximize long‐term returns given average volatility. As leverage increases, rising rebalancing costs imply declining Sharpe ratios. Beyond a critical level, even returns decline. Holding the Sharpe ratio constant, higher asset volatility leads to superior returns through lower costs.     

Types of liquidity and limits to arbitrage—the case of credit default swaps

Using a sample of Credit Default Swap (CDS) prices and corresponding reference corporate bond yield spreads for the period June 2008 to September 2009, we show that funding liquidity (shadow cost of capital for arbitrageurs) as well as asset‐specific liquidity (determinants of margin requirements) explain recent deviations in the arbitrage‐based parity relationship between the CDS prices and bond yield spreads (CDS‐Bond spread basis). Collectively, our analysis corroborates the theory on the determinants of the basis, and suggests that it is important to distinguish between these types of liquidity in determining the circumstances in which relative prices will converge. Median annualized returns for a sample convergence type trading strategy with typical levels of leverage are 80% with a median holding‐period of 127 days, but the path to convergence is not smooth. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Forecasting futures returns in the presence of price limits

In a futures market with a daily price‐limit rule, trading occurs only at prices within limits determined by the previous day's settlement price. Price limits are set in dollars but can be expressed as return limits. When the daily return limit is triggered, the true equilibrium futures return (and price) is unobservable. In such a market, investors may suffer from information loss if the return “moves the limit.” Assuming normally distributed futures returns with unknown means but known volatilities, we develop a Bayesian forecasting model in the presence of return limits and provide some numerical predictions. Our innovation is the derivation of the predictive density for futures returns in the presence of return limits. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:199–210, 2005     

The new protectionism and the limits of structural adjustment

However sharp the clash between the industrial countries' notions of a world economic order and those of the developing countries, one point is gaining increasing importance for both camps: the fight against spreading protectionism. Rising import barriers in the North restrict the developing countries opportunities to increase their foreign currency earnings, to come to grips with their debt problems and to push ahead with industrial development. Those concerned with economic policy in the North fear an escalation of trade discrimination that would gradually neutralise the allocative function of the market, hamper recovery from the present recession, encourage inflation and lead to the inefficient organisation of production throughout the world. Why is protectionism so difficult to halt in spite of the unanimous condemnation of it?     

The limits to stock index arbitrage: Examining S&P 500 futures and SPDRS

This study examines factors affecting stock index spot versus futures pricing and arbitrage opportunities by using the S&P 500 cash index and the S&P 500 Standard and Poor's Depository Receipt (SPDR) Exchange‐Traded Fund (ETF) as “underlying cash assets.” Potential limits to arbitrage when using the cash index are the staleness of the underlying cash index, trading costs, liquidity (volume) issues of the underlying assets, the existence of sufficient time to execute profitable arbitrage transactions, short sale restrictions, and the extent to which volatility affects mispricing. Alternatively, using the SPDR ETF as the underlying asset mitigates staleness and trading cost problems as well as the effects of volatility associated with the staleness of the cash index. Minute‐by‐minute prices are compared over different volatility levels to determine how these factors affect the limits of S&P 500 futures arbitrage. Employing the SPDR as the cash asset examines whether a liquid tradable single asset with low trading costs can be used for pricing and arbitrage purposes. The analysis examines how long mispricing lasts, the impact of volatility on mispricing, and whether sufficient volume exists to implement arbitrage. The minute‐by‐minute liquidity of the futures market is examined using a new transaction volume futures database. The results show that mispricings exist regardless of the choice of the underlying cash asset, with more negative mispricings for the SPDR relative to the S&P 500 cash index. Furthermore, mispricings are more frequent in high‐ and mid‐volatility months than in low‐volatility months and are associated with higher volume during high‐volatility months. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1182–1205, 2008     

Ethical limits to the intrusiveness of online advertising formats: A critical review of Better Ads Standards

ABSTRACT

This article argues that advertising ethics, traditionally focused on ad contents and vulnerable audiences, should be also applied to ad format intrusiveness. The increasing appearance of highly intrusive advertising formats resulted in an extraordinarily growth of ad blocking systems. To fight the economic costs of the ad blocker phenomenon, the most relevant agents of the industry have created a never seen Coalition for Better Ads including marketers, publishers, and agencies worldwide. This article analyses the experiments carried out by the Coalition to create Better Ads Standards establishing the limits of ad format intrusiveness to be implemented worldwide by means of self-regulation. Based on classical and current approaches to advertising ethics, this work explains that highly annoying ads should not only be banned for practical reasons but for overpassing ethical limits in terms of respect for the persuadee, equity of the persuasive appeal, and social responsibility for the common good. A basic exploratory replication study is presented to simulate further research on the ethical limits of intrusive advertising. Establishing which ad formats are allowed to continue and which ones should gradually disappear is such a relevant process for many stakeholders that it requires further discussion by consumers and scholars.     

The limits of corporate responsibility standards

I explore the limits of corporate responsibility standards – for example Social Accountability 8000 (SA 8000), the Global Reporting Initiative, the Fair Labor Association workplace code – by looking at these initiatives through Derrida's aporias of justice as set out in ‘Force of Law: The “Mystical Foundation of Authority”’. Based on a discussion of SA 8000, I uncover the unavoidable aporias that are associated with the use of this standard. I contribute to the literature on corporate responsibility standards in general and SA 8000 in particular by showing (a) that attempts to standardise corporate responsibility can only be successful insofar as we recognise that compliance with SA 8000's rules requires a ‘fresh judgement’ every time they are applied, (b) that SA 8000 should not be pushed down the supply chain as such coercion does not require a truly responsible decision by suppliers and eventually leads to moral mediocrity and (c) that the necessarily time-consuming reflections about the singular contexts within which SA 8000 is applied challenge the urgent need for implementing this standard. I discuss the implications of my analysis of SA 8000 for corporate responsibility standards in general.     

The limits of public consumer information

The article gives an overview of problems connected with the dissemination of public consumer information. It brings out some implications of psychological research on consumers and other human beings. The perspective taken is that of the consumer's role in a market or mixed economy. It is stressed that psychological research has yielded interesting methodological paradigms amd hypotheses which could and should be explored in practical situations outside the laboratories. If this is done, better advice can be given to guide consumer information campaigns.

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Die Grenzen öffentlicher Verbraucherinformationspolitik

Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag geht von drei grundlegenden Überlegungen aus. Zum einen hat die Funktionsfähigkeit von Verbrauchsgütermärkten zur Voraussetzung, daß die Konsumenten Zugang zu den für optimale Kaufentscheidungen notwendigen Informationen haben. Zum zweiten bieten die vorhandenen Medien nur begrenzte Möglichkeiten, solche Informationen zu übermitteln. Die dritte Überlegung beschäftigt sich mit den Konsumenten, deren Wahrnehmung als selektiv gekennzeichnet wird und deren Verhalten so starke Gewohnheiten ausgebildet hat, daß es häufig nur schwer zu beeinflussen ist und darüber hinaus manchmal sozialen Einflüssen ausgesetzt ist, die den Absichten der Verbraucherinformation entgegenstehen.Abbildung 1 zeigt einen Überblick über die Variablen, die zur Erklärung des Verbraucherverhaltens üblicherweise herangezogen werden. Es wird betont, daß die empirische Verbraucherforschung insbesondere im Bereich des Informationsverhaltens stärker die zeitlichen und räumlichen Beschränkungen berücksichtigen sollte, durch die die meisten Kaufentscheidungssituationen gekennzeichnet sind.Es werden zwei Modelle behandelt. Das eine, ein Modell der Informationsverarbeitung, wurde im Bereich der Verbraucherpsychologie entwickelt und repräsentiert den Stand der Laborforschung in diesem Bereich. Es wäre zweckmäßig, einige seiner Ergebnisse auch systematisch in Realsituationen zu überprüfen. Das zweite Modell ist das Linsen-Modell, das der Experimentalpsychologie entstammt und in den letzten fünfzehn Jahren in der Forschung ausgiebig angewendet wurde. Es kann vor allem der Problemstrukturierung im Bereich der Verbraucherinformation dienen.Abschließend wird die Nützlichkeit von Verbraucherinformation differenziert nach verschiedenen Typen von Kaufsituationen behandelt.

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Karl Erik Wärneryd is Professor of Economic Psychologie and Director of the Economic Research Institute at the Stockholm School of Economics, Box 6501, S-113 83 Stockholm, Sweden.     

放松利率管制、税率变动与企业去杠杆——基于政策工具组合的研究

银行的利率管制政策及所得税税率的高低影响企业的财务政策,进而影响企业的资本结构、调节企业的负债率。本文利用2007年我国所得税税率改革与2013年放开利率管制的准自然实验,实证检验放开利率管制前后,不同税率的政策如何影响实体企业去杠杆行为。检验结果显示:所得税税率下降,显著降低了企业财务杠杆选择,抑制了企业过度负债;相对于银行管制时期,放开利率管制以后税率降低的去杠杆作用更强。进一步研究发现:非国有企业在存在过度负债的情况下,税率下降将显著降低企业负债率。因此,税收政策和金融政策可以作为去杠杆的组合手段,同时完善市场结构,降低资本结构调整成本。     

Intangible capital: the key to growth in Europe

Intangibles and especially organisational capital are an important source of capital deepening in European countries, albeit with significant cross-country differences. The GDP in the EU27 area is 5.5% higher if certain categories of expenditure, which have until now been considered as current costs, are classified as investments in intangibles. Intangible capital investment markedly improves the profitability of companies, given the productivity-wage gap, and leads to increasing returns in intangible capital intensive countries.