Commodity house prices

This paper studies how commodity price movements have affected the local house prices in commodity-dependent economies, Australia and New Zealand. We build a geographically hierarchical empirical model and find that the commodity prices influence local house prices directly and also indirectly through macroeconomic variables. The impacts of commodity price changes are analogous to “income shocks” rather than “cost shocks”. Regional heterogeneity is also observed in terms of differential dynamic responses of local house prices to energy versus non-energy commodity price movements. The results are robust to alternative approaches. Directions for future research are also discussed.     

Hedonic house prices and spatial quantile regression

Despite its long history, hedonic pricing for housing valuation remains an active research area, and applications of new estimation methods continually push research frontiers. However, housing studies regarding Chinese cities are limited because of the short history of China’s free housing market. Such studies may, nonetheless, provide new insights given the nation’s current transitional stage of economic development. Therefore, this research makes use of publicly accessible sources to construct a new micro-dataset for an emerging Chinese city, Changsha, and it incorporates quantile regression with spatial econometric modeling to examine how implicit prices of housing characteristics may vary across the conditional distribution of house prices. Substantial variations are found, and the intuitions and implications are discussed. Additionally, the spatial dependence exhibits a U-shape pattern. The dependence is strong in the upper and lower parts of the response distribution, but it is little in the medium range.     

A spatio-temporal model of house prices in the USA

This paper provides an empirical analysis of changes in real house prices in the USA using State level data. It examines the extent to which real house prices at the State level are driven by fundamentals such as real per capita disposable income, as well as by common shocks, and determines the speed of adjustment of real house prices to macroeconomic and local disturbances. We take explicit account of both cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. This allows us to find a cointegrating relationship between real house prices and real per capita incomes with coefficients (1,−1)$(1,-1)$, as predicted by the theory. We are also able to identify a significant negative effect for a net borrowing cost variable, and a significant positive effect for the State level population growth on changes in real house prices. Using this model we then examine the role of spatial factors, in particular, the effect of contiguous states by use of a weighting matrix. We are able to identify a significant spatial effect, even after controlling for State specific real incomes, and allowing for a number of unobserved common factors. We do, however, find evidence of departures from long run equilibrium in the housing markets in a number of States notably California, New York, Massachusetts, and to a lesser extent Connecticut, Rhode Island, Oregon and Washington State.     

The spatial and temporal diffusion of house prices in the UK

This paper provides a method for the analysis of the spatial and temporal diffusion of shocks in a dynamic system. We use changes in real house prices within the UK economy at the level of regions to illustrate its use. Adjustment to shocks involves both a region specific and a spatial effect. Shocks to a dominant region - London - are propagated contemporaneously and spatially to other regions. They in turn impact on other regions with a delay. We allow for lagged effects to echo back to the dominant region. London in turn is influenced by international developments through its link to New York and other financial centers. It is shown that New York house prices have a direct effect on London house prices. We analyse the effect of shocks using generalised spatio-temporal impulse responses. These highlight the diffusion of shocks both over time (as with the conventional impulse responses) and over space.     

Residential investment and house prices in a multi-sector monetary business cycle model

This paper develops a three-sector quantitative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to account for some of the salient business cycle properties concerning residential investment and house prices. We depart from the traditional Real Business Cycle setup by incorporating monetary frictions and credit market activities into the model economy. The model generates the high volatility of residential investment and hours worked in the house investment goods producing sector, as well as the procyclicality of house prices. The lead-lag pattern of house investment also roughly conforms with the data. We find that monetary policy and nominal interest rates play a special role in the determination of house prices. Money shocks generate remarkably volatile residential investment and house prices.     

Determinants of house prices in Istanbul: a quantile regression approach

This paper uses quantile regression methods where a hedonic equation is estimated for each quantile of the conditional distribution of housing prices. The survey data are used to investigate the relationship between house prices and housing characteristics in Istanbul. This data set includes some housing characteristics of the dwellings like numbers of room, bathroom, heating system, location of house etc. In the results of this paper show some similarities and differences from earlier studies on housing prices. We find that age, cable tv, security, heating system, garage, kitchen area, increasing numbers of room and bathroom increase the house prices. Our findings also show that side variable which is a special factor for Istanbul real estate market has negative effect on the prices. It is clear that the factors of housing prices can change because of the properties of country, region or city. The results of this study may give some important interpretations for developing real estate market.     

Consumption, house prices, and collateral constraints: a structural econometric analysis

If borrowing capacity of indebted households is tied to the value of their home, house prices should enter a correctly specified aggregate Euler equation for consumption. I develop a simple two-agent, dynamic general equilibrium model in which home (collateral) values affect debt capacity and consumption possibilities for a fraction of the households. I then derive and estimate an aggregate consumption Euler equation, and estimate its structural parameters. The results provide robust support for housing prices as a driving force of consumption fluctuations.     

Bubble trouble ‐ are British house prices significantly overvalued?

The OECD last December said British house prices were overvalued by 30% or more. There has been much talk, including in a 2005 speech by Gordon Brown, of a house price bubble. This article, by Gavin Cameron, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy of Oxford University, finds no significant evidence for a bubble from a dynamic panel data model of British regional house prices between 1972 and 2003. The model consists of a system of inverted housing demand equations, incorporating spatial interactions and lags and relevant spatial parameter heterogeneity. The results are data consistent, with plausible long-run solutions and include a full range of explanatory variables. Novel features of the model include transaction cost effects influencing the speed of adjustment and housing market flows, as well as stocks, driving prices. Furthermore, the model allows for shifts in real and nominal interest rate effects as credit markets liberalised.     

Renewable energy and negative externalities: The effect of wind turbines on house prices

In many countries, wind turbines are constructed as part of a strategy to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. In this paper, we measure the external effect of wind turbines on the transaction prices of nearby houses. A unique Dutch house price dataset covering the period 1985–2011 is used, as well as the exact location of all wind turbines that were built in the Netherlands. Using a difference-in-differences methodology we find a 1.4% price decrease for houses within 2 km of a turbine. There is also evidence for anticipation effects a few years before placement of a turbine. The effect is larger for taller turbines and in urban areas. Especially the first turbine built close to a house has a negative effect on its price.     

The influence of gay and lesbian coupled households on house prices in conservative and liberal neighborhoods

Gays and lesbians perceive themselves to be targets of discrimination in the housing market. Previous research has found that the presence of gays and lesbians is associated with increased housing values. We reconcile the perceived discrimination and research results by classifying neighborhoods as more conservative or liberal according to voting outcomes of the “Defense Of Marriage Act”. Using a data set comprised of over 20,000 house sale observations, we show that an increase in the number of same-sex coupled households is associated with an increase in house prices in more liberal neighborhoods and a decrease in house prices in more conservative neighborhoods. This suggests that gay and lesbian coupled households do experience prejudice in conservative neighborhoods.     

2007年第一季度 城市地价动态监测报告

根据中国城市地价动态监测系统对全国重点地区和主要城市监测结果的分析，2007年第一季度我国主要城市地价状况如下——     

Hedonic prices and composite commodities

In this paper we conjecture and, to an extent, prove that recently noted restrictions required for the logical coherence and empirical relevance of hedonic price models make these models no more general than traditional housing services models. In particular, intra-urban variation in hedonic prices may not be substantively related to market equilibration at all, and therefore is not evidence for the existence of housing sub-markets. Moreover, in the case of jointly produced housing characteristics, the hedonic price models are found to be less general than the traditional homogeneous housing services models.     

松绑的价格

<正>编者按:近期,国家发展改革委印发通知,要求地方放开非保障性住房物业服务、住宅小区停车服务等9项商品和服务价格,鼓励市场通过竞争提供质优价廉的多样化服务。非保障性住房物业服务价格放开这一政策的落地实施,将会为行业带来哪些变化?物业管理各方主体,特别是物业服务企业,如何用好这一政策,推动物业管理实现质价相符,成为业界普遍关注的问题。本期杂志继续组织专题,邀请业界专家和相关人士进     

松绑的价格

<正>编者按:近日,国家发展改革委印发通知,要求地方放开非保障性住房物业服务、住宅小区停车服务等9项商品和服务价格,鼓励市场通过竞争提供质优价廉的多样化服务,拉动消费,促进相关行业健康发展。据了解,目前,湖北、陕西等多个地方的物价主管部门已经下发通知,将执行国家发改委的这一政策。非保障性住房物业服务价格放开这一政策的落地实施,将会为行业带来哪些变化?物业管理各方主体,特别是物业服务企业,如何用好这一     

松绑的价格

<正>编者按:近日,国家发展改革委印发通知,要求地方放开非保障性住房物业服务、住宅小区停车服务等9项商品和服务价格,鼓励市场通过竞争提供质优价廉的多样化服务,拉动消费,促进相关行业健康发展。据了解,目前,湖北、陕西等多个地方的物价主管部门已经下发通知,将执行国家发改委的这一政策。     

Commercial property prices and bank performance

We seek to assess the relationship between commercial property price movements and the behavior and performance of individual banks in a range of industrialized economies, extending the existing micro literature on bank performance. Our results suggest that commercial property prices tend to be positively associated with bank lending and profitability, and negatively associated with banks’ net interest margin and bad loan ratios. Further extensions show that the degree to which such a relationship holds is related to the size of the bank. The results underline the relevance of commercial property prices as a macroprudential variable that warrants scrutiny by the authorities.     

Forecasting annual and harvest pecan prices

Pecan price forecasting is important to growers attempting to reduce income variability. Random coefficient regression (RCR) and OLS approaches were applied to annual price forecasts. Variance analysis was conducted to forecast pecan price during harvest. Price variation was postulated to be caused by two sets of variables: structural economic variables and unknown factors. RCR results consistently outperformed OLS results in annual price forecasting. The variation of harvest prices was found to be generated by a different process each year, making accurate predictions difficult. Annual price forecasts, however, can provide additional information to pecan growers and shellers for marketing decision-making.     

公寓,市中心的主角——中国公寓发展史回顾

1992年公寓名称获认可； 1997年商务公寓大发展； 2002年酒店式公寓盛行； 2005年首届中国国际公寓节开幕，公寓走向国际化和服务化时代。 公寓的发展史实际上是其内涵的演变史，在10多年的时间里，公寓的内涵历经了外销房、写字楼、高档住宅、商住两用的演变，到了今天，公寓俨然已经成为高档产品的代名