2017年世界贸易与投资形势回顾与展望北大核心SSCI

2017年,美国、欧元区、日本等发达经济体的经济整体回暖,新兴市场与发展中经济体的经济复苏态势也比较强劲,从而带动全球经济增长,推升需求增加,并拉动全球范围内的贸易与投资走出低谷。展望2018年,全球经济形势整体较为乐观,     

2019年世界经济形势回顾与展望

<正>2019年,世界经济增速放缓至近十年来的最低水平,主要经济体经济呈现同步减速趋势。全球制造业活动普遍疲弱,国际贸易增长近乎停滞,外国直接投资(FDI)增速持续下降,全球货币政策转向宽松。展望2020年,世界经济面临的多重不确定因素尚未消除,前景仍充满变数。初步判断,世界经济增长或将有所回暖,但总体增长乏力局面难以改观。     

准确把握全球经济发展趋势——中国经济年会观点综述之一

2012年1月14日,在中国国际经济交流中心举办的中国经济年会(2011～2012)上,围绕"直面挑战,寻找世界经济发展新突破"议题,与会专家认为,2012年国际经济形势仍然严峻,但也有很多积极因素。世界经济格局正在发生新的变化,既面临严峻挑战,也面临新的机遇,分析世界经济要打破常规思维方式。     

新冠肺炎疫情对世界经济的影响分析

新型冠状肺炎病毒疫情突发,正从局部向全球扩散,对世界经济的影响正在发酵且不断蔓延,2020年世界经济继续放缓的风险进一步加大,不排除个别国家出现经济衰退的可能性。作为世界第二大经济体,中国经济自身即受到疫情影响,也会有溢出,中国经济率先走出疫情意义重大。尽管疫情终将被控制,一系列措施也会使经济走出低谷,但风险依然存在。中国经济外部环境更加严峻、拯救经济的政策风险后遗症以及全球供应链产业链重置的挑战都不可低估。     

On the stability of risk and time preferences amid the COVID-19 pandemic

Experimental Economics - We elicited incentivized measures of risk and time preferences from a sample of undergraduate students in Athens, Greece, in waves that preceded and overlapped with the...     

Terrorism and the world economy

It has been argued that terrorism should not have a large effect on economic activity, because terrorist attacks destroy only a small fraction of the stock of capital of a country (see, e.g., Becker, G., Murphy, K., 2001. Prosperity will rise out of the ashes. Wall Street Journal October 29, 2001). In contrast, empirical estimates of the consequences of terrorism typically suggest large effects on economic outcomes (see, e.g., Abadie, A., Gardeazabal, J., 2003. The economic cost of conflict: A case study of the Basque country. American Economic Review 93, 113-132). The main theme of this article is that mobility of productive capital in an open economy may account for much of the difference between the direct and the equilibrium impact of terrorism. We use a simple economic model to show that terrorism may have a large impact on the allocation of productive capital across countries, even if it represents a small fraction of the overall economic risk. The model emphasizes that, in addition to increasing uncertainty, terrorism reduces the expected return to investment. As a result, changes in the intensity of terrorism may cause large movements of capital across countries if the world economy is sufficiently open, so international investors are able to diversify other types of country risks. Using a unique data set on terrorism and other country risks, we find that, in accordance with the predictions of the model, higher levels of terrorist risks are associated with lower levels of net foreign direct investment positions, even after controlling for other types of country risks. On average, a standard deviation increase in the terrorist risk is associated with a fall in the net foreign direct investment position of about 5% of GDP. The magnitude of the estimated effect is large, which suggests that the “open-economy channel” impact of terrorism may be substantial.     

世界经济一体化的特点

随着世界市场的扩大以及国际分工的深入,世界经济呈现出高度的一体化趋势.本文将从知识经济,区域经济一体化和跨国公司等几个方面来分析世界经济一体化的特点.     

疫情背景下国际大石油公司风险投资战略调整

新冠疫情爆发以来,原油价格持续低位徘徊,石油公司能源转型压力和数字化冲击的影响被进一步放大。研究发现,为加快从国际石油公司转型至综合性国际能源公司的步伐,国际大石油公司大幅优化投资组合和资产配置,低碳可再生能源领域投资呈现差异化、一体化特征,并在数字化技术领域进行全价值链布局,扩大资源优势区和需求高增长区投资。     

Crisis and belief: confirmation bias and the behavioral political economy of recession

The link between crisis and permanent increases in public spending has been investigated from the perspective of interest groups, bureaucratic growth, etc., while a demand perspective, i.e. the question of changing voter preferences, has been ignored. Survey data suggests that individuals become temporarily more in favor of government intervention in the aftermath of an economic crisis. The relationship is tested by an experiment in which salience of economic crisis generates favorable attitudes toward intervention for crisis related and unrelated topics.     

A dynamic simulation model of the world jute economy

This paper investigates both the sources of jute supply instability and the potential impact of an internationally managed buffer stock to stabilize market prices. The analysis is carried out utilizing a rather simple dynamic model of the markets for raw jute and jute goods. The model combines econometric estimates of the relevant parameters with a priori information derived from industry studies. It integrates the behavior of jute farmers in the principal jute growing countries with that of jute goods manufacturers and consumers using a series of region-specific demand and supply functions. Expected price variance is an explicit factor in determining jute acreage.     

Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on North-American Trade

International Advances in Economic Research -