Money market pressure in emerging economies: International contagion versus domestic determinants

Recent market turmoil has again raised the threat of banking crises worldwide. Might these crises be contagious internationally, or are fundamentals more likely to be responsible? This study creates monthly indices of “money market pressure” (MMP) for 20 emerging markets from 2002 to 2010, before using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methods to test for various spillovers among money and foreign exchange markets. We find that MMP Granger-causes exchange market pressure (EMP) in most countries, but that causality does not run the other direction. Secondly, MMP seems to be more contagious in Southeast Asia than in Latin America or among large emerging markets globally, and the most financially open economies are most susceptible to “direct” spillovers that do not operate through exchange markets. Finally, when examining domestic influences in large emerging markets, output drops are most likely to increase MMP.     

Assessing international commonality in macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects

This paper uses a large vector autoregression to measure international macroeconomic uncertainty and its effects on major economies. We provide evidence of significant commonality in macroeconomic volatility, with one common factor driving strong comovement across economies and variables. We measure uncertainty and its effects with a large model in which the error volatilities feature a factor structure containing time-varying global components and idiosyncratic components. Global uncertainty contemporaneously affects both the levels and volatilities of the included variables. Our new estimates of international macroeconomic uncertainty indicate that surprise increases in uncertainty reduce output and stock prices, adversely affect labor market conditions, and in some economies lead to an easing of monetary policy.     

Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks: An analysis by region and resource profile

We analyze the impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies in three regions that have different resource endowments. The existing literature on emerging economies remains inconclusive on how regional factors and resource characteristics affect the response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks. We show that (1) exports in Europe and Central Asia are driven by oil more than East Asia and the Pacific and that (2) policy makers in East Asia and the Pacific should be concerned about real exchange appreciation following a positive oil shock to mitigate losses in the non-oil export market. Analysis by resource endowment further reveals that, in less-resource-intensive economies, an oil price shock causes large variations in consumption and has a negative and persistent impact on the real gross domestic product (GDP). In mineral-exporting economies, real GDP and interest rates are driven largely by oil price shocks. The response of real GDP in mineral-exporting economies is short lived. In oil-exporting economies, only real GDP has a large variation in response to oil price shocks. Our findings highlight the need for customized policy responses to oil price shocks, depending on resource endowments, as we show that a “one size fits all" policy does not exist.     

The unique dollarization case of Lebanon

We perform a thorough analysis of the unique dollarization case of Lebanon, a heavily dollarized economy with recurring public deficits and monetary financing of the public debt, together with contained inflation and a de facto fixed exchange rate lasting for more than 20 years. What makes Lebanon’s case specific is the high level of foreign currency liquidity in the hands of the banking system due to the abundant capital inflows in the last three decades, and the high levels of the central bank’s gross international reserves, contrasting with its low and sometimes negative levels of net international reserves. We shed light on a number of areas that have so far been unexplored in international finance and monetary economics, mainly the difference between gross and net international reserves and their relative fiscal costs, together with a synthetic classification of sterilization techniques. We explain the monetary “freezing” mechanism that helped contain inflation in Lebanon, despite the monetary financing of the country’s recurring public deficits. We also assess the results of Lebanon’s monetary and exchange rate policy in the last two decades, and make a number of policy recommendations in light of previous studies.     

Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility in emerging markets: A GARCH – MIDAS approach

In this study, we examine the connection between geopolitical risk (GPR) and stock market volatility in emerging economies. Our motivation for this study is premised on the need to assess both the predictability and the associated economic gains in relation to the subject in order to offer more useful insights to investors and practitioners. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that jointly considers these objectives. Consequently, we employ the GARCH-MIDAS framework which accommodates mixed data frequencies thereby circumventing information loss or any associated bias. We find that emerging stock market volatility responds more positively to geopolitical risks although the act-related GPR index offers better out-of-sample forecasts than the threat-related GPR. We also find that accounting for global economic factors in the predictability analysis is crucial for robust outcomes. Finally, we provide some utility gains of including GPR in the predictive model of stock market volatility while also highlighting some useful implications of our findings for investment and policy decisions.     

Asset price targeting in an open economy with cognitive limitations: The best for macroeconomic and financial stability?

The choices of policy targets and the formation of agent expectations have been critical issues addressed by monetary policy management since the financial crisis of 2008. This paper evaluates macroeconomic stability in a new Keynesian open economy in which agents experience both cognitive limitations and asset market volatility. The (im)perfect credibility of various monetary policies (e.g., a Taylor-type rule with- or without asset price targeting, strict domestic inflation targeting, strict CPI inflation targeting, and exchange rate peg) may lead agents to react according to their expectation rules, and thus create various degrees of booms and busts in output and inflation. Simulations confirm that a Taylor-type CPI inflation targeting including an asset price target is the best choice. In contrast, the business cycles induced by Keynesian “animal spirits” are enhanced by strict inflation targeting. Furthermore, a credible exchange rate pegging system with an international reserve pooling arrangement can improve social welfare and stability in an open economy, even though its absolute value of the loss function is slightly lower than a Taylor-type CPI inflation targeting including an asset price target.     

Balance sheet effects and original sinners’ risk premiums

This paper describes an empirical model of country risk premiums and their determinants, relying on recent theories of balance sheet effects. We approach the latter by introducing a novel approach to country risk premiums that assumes that nominal exchange rates can move away from or towards equilibrium exchange rates, which allows exchange rate movements towards equilibrium to stimulate favourable competitiveness effects as opposed to adverse balance sheet effects. We investigate eight European emerging economies that suffer from “original sin” over the period 2001–2013, using the pooled mean group estimator of the dynamic panel error correction model. This methodology improves estimation efficiency and model performance, but also allows differentiation between long- and short-run country risk premium determinants. We find that, in the long run, country risk premiums increase in response to higher inflation and a higher total debt-to-GDP ratio, while they move in the opposite direction when the real GDP growth rate rises. Our results suggest that, in the short run, higher external debt service caused by exchange rate depreciation, i.e. the balance sheet effect, and market volatility tends to raise risk premiums, while higher international reserves and the federal funds rate tend to decrease them. Moreover, we show that the negative balance sheet effect is much stronger than the potentially favourable competitiveness effect, and that the rise in risk premiums is not due to the increase in the size of external debt, but to the larger debt burden represented by balance sheet effects.     

Navigating the New Normal: Political Affinity and Multinationals’ Post-Acquisition Performance

The New Normal in the international business landscape reflects a world challenged by economic volatility and political hostilities. This suggests increased political risk, even for MNEs operating in developed markets. We use the legitimacy-based view of political risk to examine how political affinity between host and home markets may contribute to an MNE’s post-acquisition performance in a developed market. A high degree of political affinity signifies aligned national interests thus reducing legitimacy concerns faced by MNEs during post-acquisition integration. Based on cross-border M&A deals focused on U.S. targets completed by MNEs representing 45 countries between 2004 and 2012, we find that MNEs from countries with greater political affinity to the U.S. experience better post-acquisition performance. We also investigate two country-level factors that intensify the threat to legitimacy; the MNEs’ home market economic status and the presence of a financial crisis in the host market. Our findings indicate that political affinity mitigates risk for MNEs originated from emerging economies much more than for MNEs originated from developed economies, whereas a financial crisis reduces the benefit of political affinity.     

Foreign banks and short-term macroeconomic fluctuations: Do financial development and regions matter?

In this paper, we investigate the association between bank integration, measured with the share of foreign banks in the banking industry, and macroeconomic volatility in emerging economies. We find a negative and significant relationship between bank integration and short-run fluctuations in output, consumption and investment, controlling for financial development, bank concentration and the real effective exchange rate. However, this relationship is found to be positive at high levels of financial development. We also explore the association at the regional level and show that the presence of foreign banks in Latin America is negatively and significantly correlated with macroeconomic volatility both in normal times and times of crisis. Despite widespread concerns in emerging Europe, which experienced greater financial vulnerability during the global financial crisis, we find no significant association between growth volatilities and bank integration.     

Band or point inflation targeting? An experimental approach

We conduct laboratory experiments with human subjects to test the rationale of adopting a band versus point inflation targeting regime. Within the standard New Keynesian model, we evaluate the macroeconomic performances of both regimes according to the strength of shocks affecting the economy. We find that when the economy faces small uncorrelated shocks, the level of inflation as well as its volatility are significantly lower in a band targeting regime, while the output gap and interest rate levels and volatility are significantly lower in a point targeting regime with tolerance bands. However, when the economy faces large uncorrelated shocks, choosing the suitable inflation targeting regime is irrelevant because both regimes lead to comparable performances. These findings stand in contrast to those of the literature and question the relevance of clarifying a mid-point target within the bands, especially in emerging market economies more inclined to large and frequent shocks.     

Provision and price of child care services: For-profits and nonprofits

We study the market for child care services, with a special focus on examining competition between for- and nonprofits. We estimate a two-stage oligopoly model of product differentiation. The first stage estimates a model of endogenous market structure and the second stage corrects for market structure to examine the prices charged and capacity choices for child care centers. We find that the actions of “same-type” providers have a statistically significant impact on a provider’s entry and pricing decisions but we fail to find evidence that the actions of “other types” have a significant impact. Nonprofit child care providers and Head Start centers do not appear to crowd out for-profit providers. Further, we find that for-profits and nonprofits respond differently to market characteristics generating spatial differences in the types of center available in a market. Our data suggest that for-profits are more likely to enter markets with higher percentages of economically disadvantaged students, but they primarily serve those who work, rather than live, in the market. The prevalence of disadvantaged students does not impact the entry decision of nonprofits leaving disadvantaged areas with relatively fewer non-profit options to serve residents. Policies to encourage for-profit daycare would likely lead centers to locate in markets where they can provide service for workers, whereas a policy to encourage nonprofit entry might be more effective in providing low cost care for nearby residents.     

Economic policy uncertainty,oil price volatility and stock market returns: Evidence from a nonlinear model

This paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between economic policy uncertainty, oil price volatility and stock market returns for 25 countries by applying the panel smooth transition regression model. We find that oil price volatility has a negative effect on stock returns, and this effect increases with economic policy uncertainty. Furthermore, there is pronounced heterogeneity in responses. First, oil-exporting countries whose economies depend more on oil prices respond more strongly to oil price volatility than oil-importing countries. Second, stock returns of developing countries are more susceptible to oil price volatility than that of developed countries. Third, crisis plays a crucial role in the relation between oil price volatility and stock returns.     

Modeling dynamic conditional correlations with leverage effects and volatility spillover effects: Evidence from the Chinese and US stock markets affected by the recent trade friction

In this article, we investigate the dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) with leverage effects and volatility spillover effects that consider time difference and long memory of returns, between the Chinese and US stock markets, in the Sino-US trade friction and previous stable periods. The widespread belief that the developed markets dominate the emerging markets in stock market interactions is challenged by our findings that both the mean and volatility spillovers are bidirectional. We do find that most of the shocks to these DCCs between the two stock markets are symmetric, and all the symmetric shocks to these DCCs are highly persistent between Shanghai’s trading return and S&P 500′s trading or overnight return, however all the shocks to these DCCs are short-lived between S&P 500′s trading return and Shanghai’s trading or overnight return. We also find clear evidence that the DCC between Shanghai’s trading return and S&P 500′s overnight return has a downward trend with a structural break, perhaps due to the “America First” policy, after which it rebounds and fluctuates sharply in the middle and later periods of trade friction. These findings have important implications for investors to pursue profits.     

Sovereign rating changes—Do they provide new information for stock markets?

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of sovereign rating changes on international financial markets using a comprehensive database of 42 countries, covering the major regions in the world over the period 1995–2003. In general, we find that rating agencies provide stock and foreign exchange markets with new tradable information. Specifically, rating upgrades (downgrades) significantly increased (decreased) USD denominated stock market returns and decreased (increased) volatility. Whereas the mean response is contributed evenly by the local currency stock returns and exchange rate changes that make up the USD returns, only the foreign exchange volatility was behind the USD denominated return volatility. In addition, we find significant asymmetric effects of rating announcements. The market responses – both return and volatility – are more pronounced in the cases of downgrades, foreign currency debt, emerging market debt, and during crisis periods. This study has important policy implications for international investors’ asset allocation plans and for regulatory bodies such as the Basel Committee who increasingly rely upon Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch's ratings for their regulatory regimes.     

The management of international development projects: Moving toward a standard approach or differentiation?

International cooperation supplies international aid to developing countries and emerging economies, typically through projects; to manage these projects, a specific approach based on the “project cycle” was introduced in 1970. In recent decades, many development agencies have adopted the project cycle, but they have also changed it over time, and today agencies work with different standards. In this article, the history of project management systems in international cooperation is reported, and the approaches adopted by five of the main worldwide governmental development agencies are compared. The analysis shows both the common aspects and differences in order to highlight limits and propose further research.     

Entrepreneurial migrants from/in emerging economies: breaking taboos and stereotypes

Entrepreneurial migration from/in emerging economies, as grand societal and humanitarian challenges that we currently face, underscores the need for scholarly research. In our role as social science researchers, this special issue aimed to stimulate scholars from different social science fields to rethink more broadly about the opportunities for making an impact with our research focus on entrepreneurial migration from/in emerging economies. This article provides an overview of the theoretical, empirical, managerial, and policy implications of entrepreneurial migrants from/in emerging economies research. It puts forward key concepts and measures, explores the relations within the current broader literature on migration and entrepreneurship, and identifies several gaps that represent future research questions. We also introduce eight papers in a special section of this issue, which offer answers to critical gaps and questioning some taboos/stereotypes related entrepreneurial migrants. We conclude by outlining an agenda for engaging the academic community to extend research on entrepreneurial migrants from/in emerging economies. It is the perfect time to “make a difference” through our research, teaching, and interaction with multiple socioeconomic agents to constitute impacts that “endorse a real transformation” for supporting the migrants’ community.

     

International purchasing offices: Literature review and research directions

International Purchasing Offices (IPOs) now play an increasingly important role in the management of international sourcing activities, both in developed and emerging economies. The relevance of this organisational solution and the relatively limited research that has been published so far in the P&SCM literature make the “IPO” topic particularly promising for future research. This paper – based on an analysis of 59 works published between 1991 and 2011 – provides the first comprehensive literature review and research agenda on this topic. The primary issues (i.e., IPO definition, activities, location choices, strengths, weaknesses, and human resources management) are identified, and a conceptual framework is proposed. Building on this analysis, some theoretical and methodological weaknesses of the existing works and some gaps in the literature are discussed. This work concludes by suggesting several future research directions.     

Low interest rate policy and the use of reserve requirements in emerging markets

This paper sheds light on the link between the interest rate policy in large advanced economies with international funding and reserve currencies (the United States and the euro area) and the use of reserve requirements in emerging markets. Using reserve requirement data for 28 emerging markets from 1998 to 2012, we provide evidence that emerging market central banks tend to raise reserve requirements when interest rates in international funding markets decline or financial inflows accelerate, most likely to preserve financial stability. In contrast, when global liquidity risk rises and funding from the large advanced economies dries up, emerging markets lower reserve requirements.     

The impact of sentiment and attention measures on stock market volatility

We analyze the impact of sentiment and attention variables on the stock market volatility by using a novel and extensive dataset that combines social media, news articles, information consumption, and search engine data. We apply a state-of-the-art sentiment classification technique in order to investigate the question of whether sentiment and attention measures contain additional predictive power for realized volatility when controlling for a wide range of economic and financial predictors. Using a penalized regression framework, we identify the most relevant variables to be investors’ attention, as measured by the number of Google searches on financial keywords (e.g. “financial market” and “stock market”), and the daily volume of company-specific short messages posted on StockTwits. In addition, our study shows that attention and sentiment variables are able to improve volatility forecasts significantly, although the magnitudes of the improvements are relatively small from an economic point of view.     

International output convergence: evidence from an autocorrelation function approach

This paper uses an autocorrelation function (ACF) approach to develop a new testing procedure for international output convergence. We define convergence in terms of sample ACFs of detrended output per capita, and construct an inference set‐up based on resampling and subsampling techniques for dependent data. Using per capita GDP for 15 OECD countries observed over a century, we find that the hypothesis of conditional convergence is unsupported; that, the USA apart, the linearized neoclassical growth model fails to replicate the transitional dynamics of OECD economies; and that these economies do not behave like a club. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.