Forecasting systemic impact in financial networks

We propose a methodology for forecasting the systemic impact of financial institutions in interconnected systems. Utilizing a five-year sample including the 2008/9 financial crisis, we demonstrate how the approach can be used for the timely systemic risk monitoring of large European banks and insurance companies. We predict firms’ systemic relevance as the marginal impact of individual downside risks on systemic distress. So-called systemic risk betas account for a company’s position within the network of financial interdependencies, in addition to its balance sheet characteristics and its exposure to general market conditions. Relying only on publicly available daily market data, we determine time-varying systemic risk networks, and forecast the systemic relevance on a quarterly basis. Our empirical findings reveal time-varying risk channels and firms’ specific roles as risk transmitters and/or risk recipients.     

Systemic risk of Chinese financial institutions and asset price bubbles

Although there has not been a large-scale systemic crisis in China, high-risk financial events have occurred continuously in recent years. This research thus creatively analyzes the determinants of systemic risk for Chinese financial institutions from the view of asset price bubbles. First, we identify bubbles in the China stock and real estate markets on the basis of the generalized sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) model and explain the reasons for bubble formations according to the stage of China's economic development and policies implementation. At this stage, considering the differences in economic development levels of different cities, the real estate bubbles in the first, second and third tier cities and the whole country were innovatively identified. Second, on the basis of the DCG-GARCH-CoVaR model to measure the systemic risk of listed financial institutions in China and to classify institutions, the results show that the main source of such risk is the banking sector. Furthermore, by constructing regression models, stock market bubbles and real estate bubbles both positively correlate with systemic risk throughout the sample period. Meanwhile, the impact of bubbles on the systemic risk of different types of financial institutions was taken into account so that regulators prioritized different types of institutions with different characteristics when faced with decisions. Finally, we provide macro-prudential policy advice to regulators in order to weaken the impact of bubbles on financial stability to avoid systemic crises.     

UNIVERSAL BANKING: The view from Brazil

This note begins with a brief summary of the economic and regulatory history surrounding the Universal Banking debate. Following this introduction, it focuses on the Brazilian regulatory and supervision experience. The Central Bank of Brazil has persistently enhanced prudential regulation and supervision practices in order to cope with the complexity of large financial institutions and financial holding companies. Some features of the Brazilian regulatory framework have contributed to the Brazilian economic and financial performance in recent years, such as: consolidated financial statements, including all financial and non financial subsidiaries; internal structures for risk management; responsibilities for controlling shareholders; unrestricted access to all information by supervisors; and, one of the most important issues, the requirement to foreign firms to constitute stand-alone subsidiaries. Finally, there is a short overview of the G20 financial sector reform agenda (including Basel III accord), specially, regarding the issue of Systemically Important Financial Institutions – SIFIs.     

Risk spillover analysis of China’s financial sectors based on a new GARCH copula quantile regression model

This study employs a new GARCH copula quantile regression model to estimate the conditional value at risk for systemic risk spillover analysis. To be specific, thirteen copula quantile regression models are derived to capture the asymmetry and nonlinearity of the tail dependence between financial returns. Using Chinese stock market data over the period from January 2007 to October 2020, this paper investigates the risk spillovers from the banking, securities, and insurance sectors to the entire financial system. The empirical results indicate that (i) three financial sectors contribute significantly to the financial system, and the insurance sector displays the largest risk spillover effects on the financial system, followed by the banking sector and subsequently the securities sector; (ii) the time-varying risk spillovers are much larger during the global financial crisis than during the periods of the banking liquidity crisis, the stock market crash and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results provide important implications for supervisory authorities and portfolio managers who want to maintain the stability of China’s financial system and optimize investment portfolios.     

Neoliberal Urbanism Redux?

Neoliberalization processes have been reshaping the landscapes of urban development for more than three decades, but their forms and consequences continue to evolve through an eclectic blend of failure and crisis, regulatory experimentation, and policy transfer across places, territories and scales. The proliferation of familiar neoliberal discourses and policy formulations in the aftermath of the 2007‐09 world financial crisis masks evidence of more deeply rooted transformations of policies, institutions and spaces that continue to combatively remake terrains of urban development. Accordingly, the critical intellectual project of deciphering the problematic of neoliberal urbanism must continue to evolve. This essay outlines some of the methodological and political challenges associated with (re)constructing a ′moving map′ of post‐crisis neoliberalization processes. We affirm a form of critical urban theory that adopts a restlessly antagonistic stance towards orthodox urban formations and their dominant ideologies, institutional arrangements and societal effects, tracking their endemic policy failures and crisis tendencies while at the same time demarcating potential terrains for heterodox, radical and/or insurgent theories and practices of emancipatory social change.     

Financial innovation and bank behavior: Evidence from credit markets

This paper investigates whether, and through which channel, the active use of credit derivatives changes bank behavior in the credit market, and how this channel was affected by the crisis of 2007–2009. Our principal finding is that banks with larger gross positions in credit derivatives charge significantly lower corporate loan spreads, while banks׳ net positions are not consistently related to loan pricing. We argue that this is consistent with banks passing on risk management benefits to corporate borrowers but not with alternative channels through which credit derivative use may affect loan pricing. We also find that the magnitude of the risk management effect remained unchanged during the crisis period of 2007–2009. In addition, banks with larger gross positions in credit derivatives cut their lending by less than other banks during the crisis and have consistently lower loan charge-offs. In sum, our study is suggestive of significant risk management benefits from financial innovations that persist under adverse conditions – that is, when they matter most.     

全球金融危机对中国物流行业的影响及对策研究

由2007年美国次贷危机导致的全球性金融危机,并逐步向实体经济渗透,引发了全球性的经济危机。这次全球金融危机对我国快速发展的物流业的影响很大,由于现在金融危机致使全球经济不景气而对物流产业产生的负面影响和从这次金融危机的产生原因来总结出我国物流产业应怎样避免类似的问题,对将来物流业的发展敲响了警钟。文中根据官方及行业协会提供的大量资料,结合深入的市场调查,分析了当前金融危机对物流行业的影响,并对未来中国物流行业发展的整体环境及发展趋势进行探讨和研究,在分析、预测的基础上,制定了物流行业今后的发展策略。     

Impact of macroeconomic surprises on the Brazilian yield curve and expected inflation

This study investigates how unexpected announcements in Brazilian and U.S. macroeconomic indicators affect the term structure of nominal interest rates, as well as implicit inflation expectations and real interest rates. Using daily data from March 2005 to December 2012, we employ an extended Vector Error Correction Model to take into account nonstationarity and the long-term equilibrium among different maturities of those curves. We found empirical evidence that macroeconomic surprises, domestic (Brazilian) and external (U.S. American), which lead the market to believe that there might be a higher risk of inflation or an overheated economy, raise nominal interest rates, implicit expected inflation and real interest rates. Surprisingly, in relation to the efficient-market hypothesis, we found that some macroeconomic surprises have a lagged effect on the yield curves. We also tested the impact of the global financial crisis of 2007–09 and found that the crisis affected significantly the direction and magnitude of the responses to macroeconomic news.     

Basel III capital surcharges for G-SIBs are far less effective in managing systemic risk in comparison to network-based,systemic risk-dependent financial transaction taxes

In addition to constraining bilateral exposures of financial institutions, there exist essentially two options for future financial regulation of systemic risk: First, regulation could attempt to reduce the financial fragility of global or domestic systemically important financial institutions (G-SIBs or D-SIBs), as for instance proposed by Basel III. Second, it could focus on strengthening the financial system as a whole by reducing the probability of large-scale cascading events. This can be achieved by re-shaping the topology of financial networks. We use an agent-based model of a financial system and the real economy to study and compare the consequences of these two options. By conducting three computer experiments with the agent-based model we find that re-shaping financial networks is more effective and efficient than reducing financial fragility. Capital surcharges for G-SIBs could reduce systemic risk, but they would have to be substantially larger than those specified in the current Basel III proposal in order to have a measurable impact. This would cause a loss of efficiency.     

金融创新产品风险的适应性监管机制探索——以MBS、CDO、CDS为例

金融创新产品风险的监管不到位是2007年美国次贷危机及2008年全球金融危机爆发的主要原因之一。在对MBS、CDO与CDS等创新产品风险及监管进行分析基础上创建的金融创新产品风险适应性监管机制框架包括风险的识别、风险的层级报告、风险的预警、风险的监管介入、风险的处理和金融危机与经济危机的预防六个部分。     

Debate on Neoliberalism in and after the Neoliberal Crisis

Social scientists have started to discuss the causes and consequences of the financial and economic crisis of 2007–09, and have also started debating the role of neoliberalism in and after the crisis. More generally, the crisis is often seen as a crisis of neoliberalism — and indeed it is. Neil Smith has observed that neoliberalism ‘has run out of ideas politically’ but remains dominant. The essays that make up this debate discuss what happened to neoliberalism during and after the global financial — or neoliberal — crisis, and how the heralded death and recovery of neoliberalism affects cities around the globe.     

Do option-like incentives induce overvaluation? Evidence from experimental asset markets

One potential reason for bubbles evolving prior to the financial crisis was excessive risk taking stemming from option-like incentive schemes in financial institutions. By running laboratory asset markets, we investigate the impact of option-like incentives on price formation and trading behavior. The main results are that (i) we observe significantly higher market prices with option-like incentives than linear incentives. (ii) We further find that option-like incentives provoke subjects to behave differently and to take more risk than subjects with linear incentives. (iii) We finally show that trading at inflated prices is rational for subjects with option-like incentives since it increases their expected payout.     

浅谈后金融危机时代我国中小银行风险管理的问题和对策

进入2011年,金融危机肆意破坏经济的恶劣态势得到有效控制,金融危机后的全球经济开始出现复苏性增长,全球进入后金融危机时代,金融风险管理这一问题进入人们的视野。我国金融机构,特别是中小银行在此次危机中平稳度过的同时也暴露出一些风险管理方面的问题。文中首先对时间背景后金融危机时代进行解释,着重简述我国中小银行的发展,着重对中小银行和大型银行的差异作对比,最后对风险管理中出现的问题和对策进行阐述并得出结论。     

Not all trade wars are created equal

• ? When interpreting estimates of the economic impact of trade wars, the devil is in the detail. Our review of more than 30 institutions' trade war projections finds huge variation – much of which can be explained by differences in assumptions rather than differences in models' structures or specifications. Relative to estimates based on extreme financial or tariff assumptions, our main trade war scenario results are moderate and comparable with the IMF's latest analysis.
• ? In our baseline forecast, trade policy measures have a relatively limited overall impact on global growth. This is in line with recent experience: to date, direct effects from higher trade costs have been small, and policy action has acted to offset adverse impacts on confidence. But the risk of further escalation in US‐China trade tensions remains, even following the (fragile) Trump‐Xi truce agreed at the recent G20 summit.
• ? Our review finds that estimates of the impact of such an escalation range from negligible impacts to a deterioration in some countries’ economic conditions approaching that seen during the global financial crisis. Results in Oxford Economics’ “rising protectionism” scenario – from our latest Global Scenarios Service – are moderate in comparison.
• ? We also find that all estimates showing substantial economic effects from a trade war in our sample are predicated on extreme asset price or tariff moves. In some cases, tariffs are assumed to rise more than at the time of the Great Depression in the 1930s.
• ? Such differences in assumptions can largely account for the divergence in trade war impact estimates. This is illustrated in our very low probability “full‐blown global trade war” scenario – incorporating severe tariff and financial assumptions more in line with institutions like the Bank of England – which generates a deterioration in economic conditions that broadly matches extreme estimates in our sample.

     

地方政府债务风险对金融压力的溢出效应——兼论重大突发事件冲击的影响

本文基于2007年1月至2020年12月的月度数据,使用CRITIC熵权法构造金融压力指数,并分别从城投债利差和相对发行规模两个角度测度中国地方政府债务风险;通过TVP VAR模型实证分析地方政府债务风险对金融压力的溢出效应,以及重大突发事件冲击产生的影响。研究结果显示：第一,地方政府债务风险对金融压力始终具有较强的解释效力,并且基本上呈现正向影响;第二,2008—2012年,地方政府债务风险对金融压力溢出作用的主要源头为债务利差的波动,2016年以来则转变为债务规模的提升;第三,在新冠肺炎疫情的冲击下,地方政府债务的信用风险与偿债风险对金融压力均具有正向冲击作用,整体冲击力度高于前期数次重大突发事件。因此,“十四五”时期的重要任务之一,就是进一步化解地方政府债务风险,有效阻断其向金融部门的传导路径,切实打好防范系统性金融风险的攻坚战。     

Interbank credit and the money manufacturing process: a systemic perspective on financial stability

Interbank lending and borrowing occur when financial institutions seek to settle and refinance their mutual positions over time and circumstances. This interactive process involves money creation at the aggregate level. Coordination mismatch on interbank credit may trigger systemic crises. This happened when, since summer 2007, interbank credit coordination did not longer work smoothly across financial institutions, eventually requiring exceptional monetary policies by central banks, and guarantee and bailout interventions by governments. Our article develops an interacting heterogeneous agent-based model of interbank credit coordination under minimal institutions. First, we explore the link between interbank credit coordination and the money generation process. Contrary to received wisdom, interbank credit has the capacity to remove the inner limits of monetary system capacitance. Second, we develop simulation analysis on imperfect interbank credit coordination, studying impact of interbank dynamics on financial stability and resilience at individual and aggregate levels. Systemically destabilizing forces prove to be related to the working of the banking system over time, especially interbank coordination conditions and circumstances.

     

金融危机、股权集中度与现金股利政策——基于A股上市公司的经验证据

运用我国A股上市公司2007—2010年数据,对金融危机、股权集中度与现金股利支付政策的关系进行研究,结果显示：在金融危机期间上市公司倾向于不支付现金股利或降低现金股利支付水平以应对未来收益的不确定性;相对于股权集中度较低的上市公司,股权集中度较高的上市公司在金融危机期间的现金股利偏好反而有所增强,即在金融危机期间,股权集中度较高的上市公司倾向于支付更多的现金股利以满足大股东对现金的需求。     

Switching generalized autoregressive score copula models with application to systemic risk

Recent financial disasters have emphasized the need to accurately predict extreme financial losses and their consequences for the institutions belonging to a given financial market. The ability of econometric models to predict extreme events strongly relies on their flexibility to account for the highly nonlinear and asymmetric dependence patterns observed in financial time series. In this paper, we develop a new class of flexible copula models where the dependence parameters evolve according to a Markov switching generalized autoregressive score (GAS) dynamics. Maximum likelihood estimation is performed using a two‐step procedure where the second step relies on the expectation–maximization algorithm. The proposed switching GAS copula models are then used to estimate the conditional value at risk and the conditional expected shortfall, measuring the impact on an institution of extreme events affecting another institution or the market. The empirical investigation, conducted on a panel of European regional portfolios, reveals that the proposed model is able to explain and predict the evolution of the systemic risk contributions over the period 1999–2015.     

金融系统脆弱性的生成机制研究

2007年爆发的美国次贷危机始于一场信用危机,最终演化为一场全球经济危机,给世界经济的发展带来了极大的冲击。对金融系统脆弱性的概念进行界定,总结出金融系统脆弱性的生成因素,包括信息不对称、有限理性与羊群效应以及金融机构内部管理缺陷等内在因素和金融自由化、金融同质化、经济虚拟化以及经济全球化等外在因素。因此,应加强对金融机构的管理和监管,舒缓金融系统脆弱性,保证金融系统稳健运行。     

Pricing in the Norwegian Interbank Market – the Effects of Liquidity and Implicit Government Support

We investigate the effects of central bank liquidity and possible implicit government guarantees against default on Norwegian overnight interbank interest rates. We conduct an econometric study of these interest rates over the period 2006–09, which includes the sharp fall in interbank trading during the financial crisis. Our findings suggest relatively lower funding costs for banks of systemic importance, particularly for banks with many and valuable linkages to other banks. Moreover, interest rates are found to depend not only on overall liquidity in the interbank market, but on its distribution among banks as well. There is also evidence of stronger effects on interest rates of systemic importance, creditworthiness and liquidity demand and supply factors during the financial crisis.