Permanent income,hedonic prices,and demand for housing: New evidence

Housing demand is examined by looking quite specifically at the income and price variables based on individual household data. Permanent and transitory incomes are computed through instrumental variables related to human and nonhuman wealth. A price is constructed by spatially varying hedonic techniques. Separation of measured income into permanent and transitory components substantially improves the predictive power of the housing demand estimation and leads to demand elasticities of +1 and ?1 with respect to permanent income and price. The permanent income elasticity is roughly twice the measured income elasticity.     

US share prices and real supply and demand shocks

Demand and supply sources of output movement are distinguished and the effects of shocks on stock prices are analysed. The real economy has a more pronounced effect on the stock market than vice versa and the influence from the real economy to the stock market is less important than shocks that are peculiar to the market itself. Supply and demand shocks have a greater impact on stock prices than they do on real economy variables and the sensitivity of real stock prices to supply fluctuations has waned while the sensitivity of real stock prices to demand-driven output fluctuations has increased.     

The response of prices,sales, and output to temporary changes in demand

We determine empirically how automakers accommodate shocks to demand. Using data on production, sales, and transaction prices, we estimate a dynamic profit maximization model of the firm. We demonstrate that when an automaker is hit with a vehicle‐specific demand shock, sales respond immediately and prices respond very modestly. Further, when accounting for non‐convexities in the cost function, production responds with a delay. Over time, shocks are absorbed almost entirely through adjustments in sales and production rather than prices. We examine two recent demand shocks: the Ford Explorer/Firestone tire recall of 2000, and the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

School quality and housing prices: Empirical evidence from a natural experiment in Shanghai,China

The endogeneity of education quality and quantity accounts for difficulties in appropriately identifying the causal relationship between education and housing prices. To determine how education quality is capitalized into housing prices, we deal with endogeneity bias by employing a natural experiment occasioned by China’s education reforms. Based on monthly panel data for 52 residential areas in Shanghai, we conducted a natural experiment based on the exogenous designation of specific high-quality schools as Experimental Model Senior High Schools (EMSHS). Our natural experiment proved useful in analyzing how new information affected housing prices in China’s developing housing market. We found evidence that housing prices included allowances for these new EMSHS designations. In general, the presence of an additional EMSHS (of the best quality) per square kilometer increases housing prices by 17.1%. If one additional, previously non-designated high school is designated as EMSHS in a residential area, housing prices will be 6.9% higher.     

A prediction comparison of housing sales prices by parametric versus semi-parametric regressions

This study estimates a hedonic price function using a semi-parametric regression and compares the price prediction performance with conventional parametric models. This study utilizes a large data set representing 2595 single-family residential home sales between July 2000 and June 2002 from Pitt County, North Carolina. Data from Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are incorporated to account for locational attributes of the houses. The results show that the semi-parametric regression outperforms the parametric counterparts in both in-sample and out-of-sample price predictions, indicating that the semi-parametric model can be useful for measurement and prediction of housing sales prices.     

通过供求机制影响房价的因素研究

经济学中,需求和供给的许多影响因素都是密切相关,互相作用的。房地产市场的供给和需求共同决定了房价,这表明了影响需求和供给的因素也都是间接的通过供需影响房价。本文研究了几种主要的通过供求机制影响房价的因素,分析了其影响机制和影响程度。     

Measuring the diffusion of housing prices across space and over time: Replication and further evidence

Brady (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2011, 26(2), 213–231) studies how fast and how long a change in housing prices in one region affects its neighbors by estimating the impulse response functions using a spatial autoregressive model (SAR). This paper replicates Brady's empirical results, but reports different SAR test statistics. Additional robustness checks are conducted by analyzing three different housing price indexes covering a more extensive period. Analysis shows that the model specifications and model estimates vary with the housing price indexes.     

基于房屋特征模型的房价影响因素研究

文章基于房屋特征模型,对二手房房价影响因素进行回归分析。研究表明,嘉兴二手房房价主要影响因素为装修程度,随着装修程度每提升一个档次,房屋单价会大幅上升,但与此同时,随着装修程度的提高,房屋单价的上升幅度会逐步减弱,同时,房屋所在层数、室厅总数、房龄、所在地段和是否是学区房也对房屋单价存在一定影响。     

我国城市移民的住房需求分析

农民工是构成城市移民的主要成分,尽管住房并不是移民支出的主要部分,大多数农民工在进城后选择低端房屋,但家庭聚居方式让移民对住房的要求逐步提高。计算发现,我国每年新增约200万-250万城市移民,即使按照廉租住房标准给他们提供住房,每年的需求增量也多达2600万平方米。因此,解决城市移民的住房问题对经济社会协调发展具有重要意义。     

地震加速成都楼市调整

"5·12"汶川大地震已经过去一个月,在灾区重建工作有条不紊推进的同时,这次地震带来的间接损失也正日益显现出来,其中灾区特别是成都市的房地产市场走势,尤为消费者所关注。     

The influence of racial segregation on housing prices

Census tract data were used to investigate the influence of racial segregation on housing prices in the Oakland, California housing market. White renters were found to pay a premium to live in segregated neighborhoods. Racial differences in the implicit prices of specific housing characteristics were also observed in the rental market: a unit of housing space was more expensive in the black rental submarket, while a unit of housing quality cost more in the white rental submarket. No significant differences were found in the prices paid by black and white homeowners, although for methodological reasons these results were less reliable than those for rental housing.     

Effects of the 1979 gasoline shortages on Philadelphia housing prices

Conventional theory predicts that transportation cost to a big-city central business district is an important determinant of housing prices. If this is true, the sudden rise in gasoline price following the Iranian revolution in 1979 could have caused a relative housing-price shift in central and peripheral neighborhoods. This paper looks for such an effect by fitting hedonic price functions in selected neighborhoods at varying distances from downtown Philadelphia, and testing for a relative shift at the time of the gasoline shortage. The results suggest that the energy shortage's effects may have been focused disproportionately on a few already revitalizing neighborhoods.     

投资性住房需求对商品房空置率的影响分析

文章通过对比商品房空置率分别在投资性住房需求比例不变、上升与下降时的大小,分析了投资性住房需求对商品房空置率的影响。     

Demography and the demand for housing A reinterpretation of the Mankiw-Weil demand variable

This paper argues that the Mankiw-Weil forecast of a 47% decline in house prices over the period to 2007 is based on a serious misinterpretation of their demand variable. In a time-series context this variable, which comes from a cross-section regression of house values against the age of occupants, is a measure of the adult population, not the demand for housing services or the stock of houses. Econometric work suggests that in addition to adult population, real income, relative prices and real interest rates are important factors determining the aggregate demand for housing. To be credible, forecasts of house prices need to integrate information on demand with information on cost factors and the supply of new houses.     

Implicit markets and the demand for housing characteristics

Important methodological problems in applying Rosen's (1974) model of implicit markets to housing characteristics are inadequately addressed in the literature. This paper summarizes these methodological issues and discusses advantages and disadvantages of various means of coping with these problems in empirical applications. Structural housing characteristics demand estimates are presented, along with an assessment of their accuracy. The results generally are insensitive to specification choices, suggesting the findings are plausible.     

The effect of land use regulation on housing and land prices

This paper investigates the effects of land use regulation restrictiveness on house and vacant land prices. In contrast to prior studies, the index of restrictiveness is treated as an endogenous variable and estimated effects are allowed to vary by market setting. Using data on more than 100 Florida cities, greater regulation restrictiveness is found to increase house price and decrease land price. Evidence is also provided showing that more restrictiveness increases the size of newly constructed homes.     

涨无力,跌有底——当前商品房价格分析

6月7日,央行又一次上凋了存款准备金率,直达1个百分点。这已是央行年内第五次大幅上凋存款准备金率了,预期将冻结资金4000多亿元。随后不久,国家统计局的CPI数据就和A股指数一同给予了呼应:一个是同比上涨7.7%,