Roots of growth and productivity change in Dutch shipping industry, 1500–1800

Shipping was one of the most dynamic industries of the pre industrial period. The article presents detailed estimates of the growth of output and inputs of the shipping industry in the Netherlands between 1500 and 1800. These are used to study the development of productivity in two ways: by comparing output with inputs (labour and capital), and by analysing the relationship between output prices and input prices. Both methods lead to different results, which we explain. It appears that productivity in this sector increased strongly between ca. 1550 and 1620 as a result of technological and institutional changes, such as the increased efficiency of the network of shipping routes. After 1620 labour productivity continued to increase because of factor substitution as wages increased much more than capital costs. The competitiveness of the Dutch shipping sector did not improve anymore after ca. 1650, however, which helps to explain why its rapid growth came to an end in the second half of the 17th century.     

ICT and Productivity Growth in the United Kingdom

This paper develops new estimates of investment in and outputof information and communication technology (ICT). These newestimates imply that GDP growth has been significantly understated,particularly since 1994. A growth-accounting approach is employedto measure the contribution of ICT to the growth of both aggregateoutput and aggregate input. On both counts, the contributionof ICT has been rising over time. From 1989 to 1998, ICT outputcontributed a fifth of overall GDP growth. Since 1989, 55 percent of capital deepening (the growth of capital per hour worked)has been contributed by ICT capital; since 1994 this proportionhas risen to 90 per cent. ICT capital deepening accounts for25 per cent of the growth of labour productivity over 1989–98and 48 per cent over 1994–8. But even when output growthis adjusted for the new ICT estimates, both labour productivityand TFP growth are still found to slow down after 1994.     

Wages,Productivity and Labour's Declining Income Share in Post‐Apartheid South Africa

The Marikana incident in 2012, as well as the protracted strikes by platinum miners, metal and postal workers in 2014 suggest that not all is well in the South African labour market. Even though those in employment are better off than the unemployed poor, macroeconomic data indicate that labour's share in gross value added has declined significantly during the first two decades following the first democratic election in 1994. A falling share of labour in income also means, by definition, that average labour productivity growth outstrips real wages growth. Data for South Africa suggest that productivity has indeed increased faster than wages in South Africa. This article argues that financialisation and more aggressive returns‐oriented investment strategies applied by for instance large investment institutions translated into higher required rates of return on capital, which in turn caused an increased implementation of capital‐augmenting labour‐saving technology that reduces labour's share in income.     

The Impact of Economic Reform on Productivity Growth in Chinese Industry: A Case of Xiamen Special Economic Zone

China's industrial and trade reforms were expected to stimulate growth in output and welfare by increasing the capacity of industry to absorb surplus factors of production, and by utilizing labour, capital, energy and materials more efficiently. The impact of the special economic zone reform policies on productivity and growth is assessed by studies of China's overall industrial sector performance and case studies in Xiamen and Shanghai Beijing, which is not subject to special policy initiatives, is used as a control. Although there were data limitations, several conclusions may be drawn. An increase in total factor productivity was found to have occurred in Xiamen during the reform period, but the creation of the special economic zone does not appear to have had a significant impact on productivity. Productivity performance in Beijing's state-owned industry was considerably poorer than that of total Xiamen industry, including state, collective and firms jointly owned with foreign investors, and was also lower than the productivity performance of Xiamen's state sector. The productivity performance of Xiamen's joint ventures and collectively owned firms was, however, considerably superior to the state sectors in both cities. Due to data constraints, the analysis of productivity in Shanghai was for a shorter period. Most of Shanghai's state-owned industry did better than the state-owned sector in Beijing but did not perform as well as the non-State sector in Xiamen over this period. Factor productivity in Shanghai industry was stagnant, Beijing's industrial productivity generally declined, but Xiamen's productivity improved considerably over the decade. One of the major strengths of this study is its access to new and more accurate disaggregated price indices to deflate capital investments on an industry by industry basis. Hence, the availability of the new capital stock deflator series should improve the total factor productivity estimates considerably.     

技术进步、效率变化、资本积累与我国地区服务业发展

本文用非参数生产前沿方法将我国1978—2007年服务业劳均产出增长分解为效率变化、技术进步和资本积累的贡献三个部分,并用方差分解方法估算了各部分对地区服务业劳均产出增长率差异的贡献,然后采用核密度分布方法分析了上述三个部分对地区服务业发展的影响。研究发现：（1）技术进步是促进各地区服务业增长的重要因素,其作用随资本积累的提高呈上升趋势;（2）效率虽然对服务业经济增长的平均贡献较小,但却是各地区服务业增长率差异的主要原因;（3）资本积累在不同时期对地区服务业增长的贡献差别很大,其作用随时间发展呈上升趋势。     

The Impact of Computers on Productivity in the Trade Sector: Explorations with Dutch Microdata

The impact of computers on productivity in the Dutch trade sector during the period 1988-1994 is examined. The analysis is based on a panel data set derived from the Production Survey of Statistics Netherlands, which includes data on output, employment, wages, and various types of investment. A new method is developed to estimate IT- and non-IT capital stocks for each firm based on investment flows and booked depreciation figures by firm. A Cobb-Douglas production function setting is used to study the effect of computer capital stock on productivity. We find that computers contributed positively to productivity, even when firm-specific effects such as labour quality are accounted for. In retail trade computers yielded returns above their relatively high rental price. For wholesaling, no evidence for excessive returns is found. The rates of return were not subject to a decline in the period studied, in contrast to findings for the US. This suggests that the Netherlands has been lagging in the application of IT compared to the US and that further productivity boosting effects can be expected.     

Why did socialist economies fail? The role of factor inputs reconsidered

This article presents new estimates for investment and new growth accounts for three socialist economies between 1950 and 1989. Government statistics reported distorted measures for both the rate and the trajectory of productivity growth in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland. Researchers have benefited from revised output data, but have continued to use official statistics on capital input, or estimated capital stock from official investment data. Investment levels and rates of capital accumulation were much lower than officially claimed and over‐reporting worsened over time. A setback in factor accumulation—both investment in equipment and labour input—contributed very significantly to the socialist growth failure of the 1980s.     

Foreign Ownership and Productivity: New Evidence from the Service Sector and the R&D Lab

This paper examines the relationship between foreign ownershipand productivity, paying particular attention to two issuesneglected in the existing literature—the role of multinationalsin service sectors and the importance of R&D activity conductedby foreign multinationals. We review existing theoretical andempirical work, which largely focuses on manufacturing, beforepresenting new evidence using establishment-level data on production,service, and R&D activity for Great Britain. We find thatmultinationals play an important role in service sectors andthat entry of foreign multinationals by takeover is more prevalentthan greenfield investment. We find that British multinationalshave lower levels of labour productivity than foreign multinationals,but the difference is less stark in the service sector thanin the production sector, and that British multinationals havelower levels of investment and intermediate use per employee.We also find that foreign-owned multinationals conduct a substantialamount of British R&D. We discuss the implications of theseand other findings for the policy debate on incentives to influencemultinational firms' location choices.     

Public Procurement and Foreign Direct Investment Across France,Germany, Italy and the UK

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has become an important factor of economic development during the last decades. FDI contributes to the economic growth of the host economy through learning, diffusion of technology, positive externalities and capital inflows. Attracting FDI is currently an objective in its own right for many countries and this paper aims to identify policies affecting the multinational firm’s decision to establish a subsidiary. After accounting for labour productivity and trade openness, cross-section analysis, both industry-wise and country-wise, indicates that public procurement, especially “buy national” policies, and agglomeration economies are statistically significant determinants of FDI. Although our findings pertain to four large European economies, e.g. France, Germany, Italy and the UK, they constitute relevant policy guidelines for developing countries as well.      

Institutions,Capital, and Growth

The international development community has encouraged investment in physical and human capital as a precursor to economic progress. Recent evidence shows, however, that increases in capital do not always lead to increases in output. We develop a growth model where the allocation and productivity of capital depends on a country's institutions. We find that increases in physical and human capital lead to output growth only in countries with good institutions. In countries with bad institutions, increases in capital lead to negative growth rates because additions to the capital stock tend to be employed in rent‐seeking and other socially unproductive activities.     

Interaction between structural and cyclical shocks in production and employment

Interaction between Structural and Cyclical Shocks in Production and Employment. — A major aim of recent empirical modelling of the business cycle is to identify the relative importance of aggregate supply and demand shocks. This paper uses the methodology of unobserved (or structural) components time series models for the identification of technology and demand shocks in a two-equation system of structural labour productivity and industrial output. It allows us to introduce the correlation between the structural and cyclical shocks such that the mutual dependency of these shocks can be estimated explicitly. The data is quarterly time series of labour productivity in industry and industrial output for Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States. Our results show that the covariance of the dynamics of structural and cyclical shocks appears to be important in these countries.     

东道国交通运输能力与中国企业跨国并购:基于生产率调节效应的视角

文章将东道国交通运输能力和生产率引入理论模型,并基于宏观和微观层面数据,研究东道国交通基础设施对中国企业跨国并购完成率的影响机制,实证结果表明:高交通运输能力国家的企业为中国企业并购所青睐,尤其是水路运输;劳动生产率较高的国家的企业对中国资本吸引力并不显著,但东道国交通运输能力与劳动生产率的双向互动却明显促进了中国企业跨国并购,而且不同行业劳动生产率的调节效应不尽相同,服务业劳动生产率引起的间接调节效应最大,其次是工业,最后是农业。这对于有效促进中国企业成功"出海"并实现全球资本区域结构优化具有现实价值。     

Sectoral shifts and rates of profit

Summary In this paper the role of the capital market is analysed onthe base of a dynamic two-sector model of a closed economy. The way in which the allocation of investment is related to sectoral differences in the rate of profit and to diverging sectoral capital needs as well, turns out to be of great importance for the whole economy. Conclusions are drawn with regard to the long-run equality of profits after an initial disturbance. The role of the capital market is analysed too in connection with the functioning of sectoral labour markets. As far as unemployment and differing sectoral unemployment rates are concerned, the importance of the labour markets is obviously overwhelming. On that base it is possible to make some remarks on macroeconomic and sectoral investment policies with regard to employment.     

The New Economy in Europe, 1992-2001

Despite the fast catching up in the diffusion of informationand communication technologies (ICT) experienced by most EUcountries in the last few years, information technologies haveso far delivered few productivity gains in Europe. In the secondhalf of the past decade, the growth contributions from ICT capitalrose in six EU countries only (the UK, Denmark, Finland, Sweden,Ireland, and Greece). Unlike in the USA, this has not generallybeen associated with higher labour or total factor productivity(TFP) growth rates, the only exceptions being Ireland and Greece.Particularly worrying, the large countries in Continental Europe(Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) showed stagnating or mildlydeclining growth contributions from ICT capital, together withdefinite declines in TFP growth compared to the first half ofthe 1990s. It looks as though the celebrated ‘Solow paradox’on the lack of correlation between ICT investment and productivitygrowth has fled the USA and come to Europe.     

Machine tools and mass production in the armaments boom: Germany and the United States, 1929–44

This article anatomizes the ‘productivity race’ between Nazi Germany and the US over the period from the Great Depression to the Second World War in the metalworking industry. We present novel data that allow us to account for both the quantity of installed machine tools and their technological type. Hitherto, comparison of productive technologies has been limited to case studies and well‐worn narratives about US mass production and European‐style flexible specialization. Our data show that the two countries in fact employed similar types of machines combined in different ratios. Furthermore, neither country was locked in a rigid technological paradigm. By 1945 Germany had converged on the US both in terms of capital‐intensity and the specific technologies employed. Capital investment made a greater contribution to output growth in Germany, whereas US growth was capital‐saving. Total factor productivity growth made a substantial contribution to the armaments boom in both countries. But it was US industry, spared the war's most disruptive effects, that was in a position to take fullest advantage of the opportunities for wartime productivity growth. This adds a new element to familiar explanations for Germany's rapid catch‐up after 1945.     

Output and productivity comparisons of the Singapore and Hong Kong wholesale and retail trade sectors, 2001–2008

This paper employs the industry of origin approach to compare value‐added and labour productivity of Singapore and Hong Kong's wholesale and retail sectors for the period 2001–08. The direct comparison between these two economies was motivated by the statement of the Singapore Government that its services sector, especially the retail sector, lagged behind Hong Kong's productivity levels. The results show that since 2005, Singapore's wholesale and retail sector performance in terms of labour productivity has been below Hong Kong's level, largely due to the poor performance of its retail sector arising from an influx of foreign workers. Results from total factor productivity analysis of these two economies also suggest that Hong Kong's better performance (since 2005) was largely due to its ability to employ more educated and trained workers with limited use of capital. The results suggest that polices that have worked in Hong Kong may not work in Singapore because its population is more diverse, which poses a challenge to policymakers in raising its productivity level.     

基于生产函数的中国零售业发展的实证研究

基于Cobb-Dauglas生产函数的分析,以2010年全国各地区的截面数据为样本,利用Eviews软件进行模型回归,对我国零售业的发展进行实证研究,实证研究结果表明：零售业的资本和劳动4~Z-45需加大,并且投入产出不平衡,投资效益仍处于较低水平;零售业的发展还没有实现规模效应;资本投入对物流的产出影响大于劳动投入对其的影响。最后,根据研究结果,为我国零售业的发展提出相应对策。     

Quantifying shifts in primary factor demand in the South African economy

This article uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to explain the persistence in the high levels of unemployment in the South African economy in spite of modest to relatively strong output growth. We make use of a historical simulation for the period 2006–13 and find that the capital–labour ratio increased despite a relative increase in the rental price of capital. Classical economic theory suggests that changes in industry preferences toward capital and labour lead to adjusted capital–labour ratios. We quantify the changes in industry factor preferences during this period and highlight their impact in explaining observed labour market outcomes. Other changes in the economy over this period are also quantified.     

信贷市场不完美，产业转型升级和经济增长

本文提出一个信贷市场不完美情况下产业升级的宏观经济模型,其中信用受限的经济主体可以选择不同类型的产业进行投资,产业类型的异质性体现在投资项目的生产效率、投资规模和信用担保程度。经济主体储蓄量的变化会改变信贷在不同生产效率的产业类型之间的分配,而资本在不同产业类型的组合效应造成不同的经济增长模式,包括从事低效产业的落后经济、从事高效产业的先进经济、从事多种产业的混合经济等。     

Investments and Changing Labour Productivity in Timber Floating:

Abstract

The aim of this article is to examine the change in labour productivity of timber floating on tributaries of northern Swedish rivers between 1930 and 1960. During this time, timber-floating operations were still relatively widespread but were put under economic pressure due to rapidly increasing labour costs and decreasing timber dimensions. This study examines various factors that could conceivably explain these changes in labour productivity in timber floating on the tributaries of the Ume and Vindel rivers. The results show that during the 1950s a partial phase-out of timber floating on the tributaries had a very small effect on labour productivity. Thus the combination of investment in the existing floatways and changes in the volumes of timber is the factor which best explains differences in labour productivity among different tributaries. Timber floating on the tributaries was influenced by annual variations in natural conditions, but since the relationship between investment costs and changes in labour productivity is significant, it still seems reasonable to draw the conclusion that investment in existing floatways resulted in increasing labour productivity during the examined period. These findings also contribute to the discussion of rationality and expectations as an explanation for investments in existing technologies, particularly in this type of transport system.