Robust animal spirits

In a real business cycle model, an agent's fear of model misspecification interacts with stochastic volatility to induce time varying worst case scenarios. These time varying worst case scenarios capture a notion of animal spirits where the probability distributions used to evaluate decision rules and price assets do not necessarily reflect the fundamental characteristics of the economy. Households entertain a pessimistic view of the world and their pessimism varies with the overall level of volatility in the economy, implying an amplification of the effects of volatility shocks. By using perturbation methods and Monte Carlo techniques we extend the class of models analyzed with robust control methods to include the sort of nonlinear production-based DSGE models that are popular in academic research and policymaking practice.     

Enterprise risk management: An empirical analysis of factors associated with the extent of implementation

Enterprise risk management (ERM) has emerged as a new paradigm for managing the portfolio of risks that face organizations, and policy makers continue to focus on mechanisms to improve corporate governance and risk management. Despite these developments, there is little research on factors associated with the implementation of ERM. Research is needed to provide insights as to why some organizations are responding to changing risk profiles by embracing ERM and others are not.This exploratory study examines factors associated with the stage of ERM implementation at a variety of US and international organizations. Based on data gathered from 123 organizations, we find the stage of ERM implementation to be positively related to the presence of a chief risk officer, board independence, CEO and CFO apparent support for ERM, the presence of a Big Four auditor, entity size, and entities in the banking, education, and insurance industries. We also find US organizations to have less-developed ERM processes than international organizations. We believe this paper will provide an initial foundation for more advanced research about ERM.     

International portfolio selection with exchange rate risk: A behavioural portfolio theory perspective

This paper analyzes international portfolio selection with exchange rate risk based on behavioural portfolio theory (BPT). We characterize the conditions under which the BPT problem with a single foreign market has an optimal solution, and show that the optimal portfolio contains the traditional mean–variance efficient portfolio without consideration of exchange rate risk, and an uncorrelated component constructed to hedge against exchange rate risk. We illustrate that the optimal portfolio must be mean–variance efficient with exchange rate risk, while the same is not true from the perspective of local investors unless certain conditions are satisfied. We further establish that international portfolio selection in the BPT with multiple foreign markets consists of two sequential decisions. Investors first select the optimal BPT portfolio in each market, overlooking covariances among markets, and then allocate funds across markets according to a specific rule to achieve mean–variance efficiency or to minimize the loss in efficiency.     

Risk parity portfolios with risk factors

Portfolio construction and risk budgeting are the focus of many studies by academics and practitioners. In particular, diversification has spawned much interest and has been defined very differently. In this paper, we analyse a method to achieve portfolio diversification based on the decomposition of the portfolio’s risk into risk factor contributions. First, we expose the relationship between risk factor and asset contributions. Secondly, we formulate the diversification problem in terms of risk factors as an optimization program. Finally, we illustrate our methodology with a real example of building a strategic asset allocation based on economic factors for a pension fund facing liability constraints.     

From counting risk to making risk count: Boundary-work in risk management

For two decades, risk management has been gaining ground in banking. In light of the recent financial crisis, several commentators concluded that the continuing expansion of risk measurement is dysfunctional (Power, 2009, Taleb, 2007). This paper asks whether the expansion of measurement-based risk management in banking is as inevitable and as dangerous as Power and others speculate. Based on two detailed case studies and 53 additional interviews with risk-management staff at five other major banks over 2001–2010, this paper shows that relentless risk measurement is contingent on what I call the “calculative culture” (Mikes, 2009a). While the risk functions of some organizations have a culture of quantitative enthusiasm and are dedicated to risk measurement, others, with a culture of quantitative scepticism, take a different path, focusing instead on risk envisionment, aiming to provide top management with alternative future scenarios and with expert opinions on emerging risk issues. In order to explain the dynamics of these alternative plots, I show that risk experts engage in various kinds of boundary-work (Gieryn, 1983, 1999), sometimes to expand and sometimes to limit areas of activity, legitimacy, authority, and responsibility.     

构建现代风险管理体系:欧洲经验

建立健全相对独立的风险管理组织体系 欧洲商业银行风险管理在组织制度上越来越严密,形成了由董事会及其高级管理人员直接领导的,以独立风险管理部门为中心的,与各个业务部门紧密联系的内部风险管理系统.     

Dynamic risk management

Both financing and risk management involve promises to pay that need to be collateralized, resulting in a financing versus risk management trade-off. We study this trade-off in a dynamic model of commodity price risk management and show that risk management is limited and that more financially constrained firms hedge less or not at all. We show that these predictions are consistent with the evidence using panel data for fuel price risk management by airlines. More constrained airlines hedge less both in the cross section and within airlines over time. Risk management drops substantially as airlines approach distress and recovers only slowly after airlines enter distress.     

Enterprise risk management in financial groups: analysis of risk concentration and default risk

In financial groups, enterprise risk management is becoming increasingly important in controlling and managing the different independent legal entities in the group. The aim of this paper is to assess and relate risk concentration and joint default probabilities of the group’s legal entities in order to achieve a more comprehensive picture of a financial group’s risk situation. We further examine the impact of the type of dependence structure on results by comparing linear and nonlinear dependencies using different copula concepts under certain distributional assumptions. Our results show that even if financial groups with different dependence structures do have the same risk concentration factor, joint default probabilities of different sets of subsidiaries can vary tremendously.

新加坡金融管理局《网上银行技术风险管理指引》（一）

网上银行的出现一定程度上改变了传统金融机构的运营方式和业务运营模式,另一方面也给银行带来新的风险。如何在给客户带来便利的同时保障网银交易的安全性和系统运行的稳定性也是各家银行关注的重点问题。本刊将连续刊载由深圳发展银行王光石编译的新加坡金融管理局《网上银行技术风险管理指引》（2008年6月颁布）,以更好地促进我国网上银行技术风险管理的发展。该指引是新加坡金融管理局从行业内有效的实践操作中逐步总结提炼出来的,这些内容对国内网上银行的监管,对金融机构制定网上银行风险管控流程与管理制度有重要的参考价值。     

Value-at-risk-based risk management: optimal policies and asset prices

This article analyzes optimal, dynamic portfolio and wealth/consumptionpolicies of utility maximizing investors who must also managemarket-risk exposure using Value-at-Risk (VaR). We find thatVaR risk managers often optimally choose a larger exposure torisky assets than non-risk managers and consequently incur largerlosses when losses occur. We suggest an alternative risk-managementmodel, based on the expectation of a loss, to remedy the shortcomingsof VaR. A general-equilibrium analysis reveals that the presenceof VaR risk managers amplifies the stock-market volatility attimes of down markets and attenuates the volatility at timesof up markets.     

董事会视角:风险管理实施要素

在讨论风险管理及如何增加风险管理所带来的价值时,企业的高管和董事们往往希望寻求一种简单可行的风险管理实施方法。尽管实施风险管理不宜“一刀切”,但董事会仍可以考虑四个基本要素,并灵活安排,以适用于各行业不同复杂程度的风险状况。     

Measuring revenue responses to tax rate changes in multi-rate income tax systems: behavioural and structural factors

This paper shows how income changes in response to changes in marginal income tax rates (MTRs) translate into tax revenue changes for the familiar multi-step income tax function used in many countries. Previous literature has focused on the relatively straightforward case of a proportional income tax or the top MTR only. The paper examines revenue responses at both the individual and aggregate levels, and it is shown that for individual MTRs within a multi-rate regime, simple expressions for tax revenue responsiveness can be derived that nevertheless capture the various behavioural and structural responses to income tax reforms involving changes to multiple rates and thresholds. Illustrations are provided using changes to the New Zealand income tax structure in the 2010 budget. This reduced all marginal tax rates while leaving income thresholds unchanged.     

通过风险管理创造价值

本文摘自波士顿咨询公司(BCG)近期发布的《繁荣兴盛的全球银行业——2007年银行业价值创造报告》,这是该公司第五份关于银行业股东价值创造的年度报告。与往年报告不同的是,今年的报告详细考察了风险管理在增加价值创造方面的作用。     

筑牢信息化防火墙——广西物资集团总公司会计信息系统风险控制案例

在经济全球化的大背景下,管理滞后、会计信息风险控制不力导致风险加剧,往往是企业在危机中倒下的共因.后金融危机时代,伴随着信息化的发展,会计信息系统风险控制日益成为人们关注的焦点.     

The risk management of nothing

This essay challenges core elements of enterprise risk management (ERM) and suggests that an impoverished conception of ‘risk appetite’ is part of the ‘intellectual failure’ at the heart of the financial crisis. Regulators, senior management and boards must understand risk appetite more as the consequence of a dynamic organizational process involving values as much as metrics. In addition, ERM has operated as a boundary preserving model of risk management subject to the ‘logic of the audit trail’, rather than a boundary challenging practice which confronts and addresses the complex realities of interconnectedness. The security provided by ERM is at best limited to certain states of the world and at worst it is illusory – the risk management of nothing. In contrast, Business continuity management (BCM) may provide clues about how risk management might be reconstructed.     

Les objectifs du risk management

Sans résumé Cf. à ce sujet: M. Haller: ?Sicherheit durch Versicherung? Gedanken zur künftigen Rolle der Versicherung? (?La sécurité par l'assurance? Quelques réflexions sur le r?le futur de l'assurance?); Schriftenreihe Risikopolitik, Band 1., St. Gallen, 1976. M. Haller: ?Wirtschaftspolitische Zielkonflikte. Zur Problematik ihres realwissenschaftlichen Gehaltes? (?Conflits d'objectifs en politique économique. Les problèmes de leur contenu?); Ver?ffentlichungen der Hochschule St. Gallen für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Schriftenreihe Volkswirtschaft Band 1, Bern und Frankfurt, 1973. M. Haller est directeur de l'Institut d'Economie de l'Assurance de la Haute Ecole d'Etudes économiques et sociales de Saint-Gall.     

Enterprise risk management and firm performance: A contingency perspective

In recent years, a paradigm shift has occurred regarding the way organizations view risk management. Instead of looking at risk management from a silo-based perspective, the trend is to take a holistic view of risk management. This holistic approach toward managing an organization’s risk is commonly referred to as enterprise risk management (ERM). Indeed, there is growing support for the general argument that organizations will improve their performance by employing the ERM concept. The basic argument presented in this paper is that the relation between ERM and firm performance is contingent upon the appropriate match between ERM and the following five factors affecting a firm: environmental uncertainty, industry competition, firm size, firm complexity, and board of directors’ monitoring. Based on a sample of 112 US firms that disclose the implementation of their ERM activities within their 10Ks and 10Qs filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, empirical evidence confirms the above basic argument. The implication of these findings is that firms should consider the implementation of an ERM system in conjunction with contextual variables surrounding the firm.