A MODEL OF THE FIRM'S DEMAND FOR MONEY UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Recently, economists have centered their explanation of the demand for money balances on the transactions motive. The roles of precautionary and speculative motives remain ambiguous. The purpose of this paper is to fill this void. We develop a static model of the individual firm's demand for money in which prices and the interest rate are assumed to be random variables. In this model, the entrepreneur must decide his money holdings ex ante, and both capital and labor inputs are determined ex post. The demand for money corresponding to the various motives is a consequence of analyzing the ex ante profit function. Implications for monetary policy are derived from this analysis.     

UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTATIONS IN SHACKLE'S THEORY OF CAPITAL AND INTEREST

This paper is focused on the macroeconomic aspects of Shackle's theory of capital and interest. The paper highlights the strengths and weaknesses of this theory. Among the strengths is Shackle's treatment of historical time, expectations and their disappointment, ex ante and ex post magnitudes, macroeconomic equilibrium and disequilibrium. Among the weaknesses is Shackle's failure to grasp the difference between the theory of interest as such and the theory of the money rate of interest as well as the difference between the theory of capital in the context of logical time (the old Austrian approach) and the theory of capital in the context of historical time (Hayek's and Shackle's preferred approach).

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Risk Management,Real Options,Corporate Social Responsibility

The relationship of corporate social responsibility to risk management has been treated sporadically in the business society literature. Using real options theory, I develop the notion of corporate social responsibility as a real option its implications for risk management. Real options theory allows for a strategic view of corporate social responsibility. Specifically, real options theory suggests that corporate social responsibility should be negatively related to the firm’s ex ante downside business risk.     

Trade‐related Job Loss,Wage Insurance and Externalities: An Ex Ante Efficiency Rationale for Wage Insurance

The extension of adjustment assistance to those who have suffered trade‐related job displacement is widely supported on both sides of the economics of globalisation debate. The form that such assistance should take, namely wage insurance, is also the subject of wide agreement. Nevertheless, the formal economic rationales offered for such a policy are varied, including political economy arguments, equity arguments and market failure/ex post efficiency arguments. This note proposes an ex ante efficiency‐based rationale for the provision of adjustment assistance in the specific form of wage insurance. Job displacement imposes pecuniary externalities on displaced workers, which, in a complete markets setting, induce only shifts along the ex ante Pareto‐efficient frontier. However, when markets are incomplete, pecuniary externalities become welfare‐relevant. Without the possibility of diversifying or hedging the risk of pecuniary external diseconomies of job displacement using contingent claims, welfare is reduced ex ante. Wage insurance – whether publicly underwritten, privately underwritten (as in Shiller's (2003 ) ‘livelihood insurance’), or supplied on a mixed public/private basis – completes the market for contingent claims, allowing workers to diversify or hedge the risk of trade‐related pecuniary external diseconomies. By facilitating risk sharing, wage insurance removes an impediment to ex ante Pareto efficiency. Moreover, wage insurance affects not only post‐displacement behaviour by increasing the incentive to reacquire employment quickly, but it also affects pre‐displacement consumption and investment behaviour, in particular, lowering the threshold at which workers will be willing to undertake irreversible investment in industry‐specific skills.     

DEMAND UNCERTAINTY,MONOPOLY WITH TWO-STAGE INPUT DECISIONS,AND CORPORATION TAXES

This paper attempts to investigate the effects of changes in the lump sum tax and the profit tax rate on the input, output and price decisions of the risk averse monopoly under demand uncertainty. It is assumed that, while the monopoly must determine its capital ex ante, it may modify the output and price determinations through adjusting its labor ex post. As the results of its analysis, the paper presents the new propositions with respect to the corporation taxes which have never been shown in both the deterministic models and the models which exclude the possibility of two-stage input decisions, even under demand uncertainty.     

Accounting and economic returns in British coal mining: The Carlton Main colliery, 1872–1909

Various estimates, both ex ante and ex post, have been produced of the accounting rate of return on investments in the late nineteenth-century coal industry, with some ex post figures also being calculated for individual firms engaged therein, such as the Consett Iron Co. Ltd. No one, however, has previously tried to calculate the economic rate of return from investing in a single coal mine over the duration of its life. In this article we examine both accounting and economic rates of return for the Carlton Main colliery, from its sinking during the 1870s through to its closure in 1909. Our results enable us to judge the accuracy of previous estimates of returns for the late nineteenth-century coal industry, and of contemporary estimates of the potential rate of return in coal mining. We also offer insights into the efficacy of using accounting rates of return as an indicator of the economic rate of return during that period.     

Impact of the WTO on Agricultural and Food Policies

Most studies on the impact of WTO agreements on policies are ex ante simulations or focus on trade effects. We estimate ex post the impact of the WTO on agricultural policies, including both the total transfers by the policies and the policy instruments used, in particular their market distortions. We use OECD data on total support and instrument choice in agricultural policy. Our empirical analysis provides evidence that the WTO did not cause a significant reduction in the total amount of support to agriculture but that it caused a significant shift from distortionary to less distortionary instruments.     

Price and Earnings Momentum,Transaction Costs,and an Innovative Practitioner Technique

We use an innovative practitioner technique to investigate the interplay between the ex post performance of momentum strategies and transaction costs, rebalancing frequency, turnover constraints, and fund size. We have three interrelated main results: first, the level of and correlation between active returns to price momentum and earnings momentum strategies vary dramatically with these factors; second, strategies that are fearful of ex ante transaction costs generate returns net of transaction costs that are far superior to the net returns of naive strategies; and third, obtaining better traction with the unique elements of each strategy yields a more profitable combined strategy.     

An <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex ante</Emphasis> forecast on economically engineered bit rates for IPTV service via xDSL transports of internodal access

Concerning broadband IPTV service (of 12/24 MHz bandwidth) on a digital subscriber line (xDSL), an algorithm (plus a numerical spreadsheet) that computes the required, economically engineered bit rates (EEBRs) of associated (aggregated) traffic is developed. The EEBR is decided by user (residential/business) behavior at a wire center and is essential for economic design/implementation/expansion of xDSL infrastructure. Using an available set of (ex post) data on xDSL growth of services (collected over a period of semiannual terms) at a wire center, an ex ante forecast on EEBR is elucidated. An EEBR-based economic utilization of resources and connection admission control is indicated.     

When Out-of-Stock Products DO Backfire: Managing Disclosure Time and Justification Wording

We investigate how stock-outs influence decision satisfaction and repatronage intentions for online purchase situations and how these responses vary with disclosure time and justification wording. We manipulate the disclosure time of the products’ unavailability (ex ante vs. ex post) and the justification given to consumers (firm-related vs. firm-unrelated). We find that, overall, stock-outs produce negative reactions, but that the main effects of timing and wording can sum up: ex ante, firm-related communication effectively offsets the damage caused by stock-outs. Retailers should employ real-time tracking to promptly inform consumers of product availability, and accept the responsibility for any outages.     

Credit Scoring and Loan Default

A metric of credit score performance is developed to study the usage and performance of credit scoring in the loan origination process. We examine the performance of origination FICO scores as measures of ex ante borrower creditworthiness using loan‐level data on ex post performance of subprime mortgages. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of credit score performance reveal different trends, especially on originations with low credit scores. The data suggest a trend of increased emphasis on higher credit scores accompanying a trend of increased riskiness in other origination attributes. Over time, this increased emphasis on credit scoring coincided with deterioration in FICO performance largely because of the fact that higher credit score originations of later cohorts were more likely to have riskier attributes. However, controlling for other attributes on originations and changes in economic conditions, we find that, as measures of borrower ranking, FICO performance on subprime loans over the years remains fairly stable.     

Agency risk control through reprisal

We study agency risk control by venture capital (VC) firms to highlight the importance of VC reprisal ability. The central thesis of this paper is that a VC firm's due diligence effort as an ex ante screening for agency risk is contingent upon its ex post reprisal ability. Applying to the context of emerging markets, we develop a testable hypothesis and empirically test it using data from Singapore market. It is found that foreign VC firms that are relatively weak in reprisal ability spend more effort in due diligence screening compared to local VC firms.     

On the Characterisation of the World Real Interest Rate

This paper characterises the world real interest rate as a common trend in real interest rates in Germany, Japan, and the United States even if there is scepticism in the existence of the world real interest. In theoretical terms, real interest parity is based on the presumed validity of uncovered interest parity and purchasing power parity, but the empirical evidence of these parity conditions is not strong and thus the presence of the world real interest rate. The significance of this paper is, therefore, to visualise the current level of international economic integration by characterising the approximate world real interest rate as a single common trend, taking full advantage of the fact that real interest rates in three large open economies have been moving together sharing a common component even if their levels are distinctively different. This single common trend has desirable properties as the world real interest rate. First, it is a parsimonious and monotonically increasing function of the real interest rates in three large open economies that can be world price or interest rate maker, in contrast with small open economies. Second, it is moving together with national real interest rates one for one. Hence, the deviations from the world rate are temporary because common trend represents the common driving force of national rates over the long run period. Third, it can explain as high a proportion as possible of the variances of national rates.     

Does Taiwan's entry into the WTO truly reduce its agricultural output values?

This study has used the time series data of Australia, China, Denmark, India, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the Philippines, South Korea, Spain, and the United States from the World Bank to estimate the agricultural economic shock of Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). We have adopted the recently developed panel data approach for policy evaluation to construct the annual agricultural growth path of Taiwan, which is mainly based on the cross-sectional correlations between the domestic and international agricultural trade markets in the absence of Taiwan's entry into the WTO. Our results have not only revealed the importance of ex post counterfactual analysis, but also provided empirical evidence that the agricultural economic shock is not as severe as predicted by many ex ante studies. Based on these results, we have concluded that the outcome may have arisen from the slow progress of achieving agricultural trade liberalization under the WTO and the Taiwanese Government's effective adoption of phase-in periods and relative adjustment policies.     

Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S.

In spite of concerns about “twin deficits” (fiscal and the current account deficits) for the United States economy, empirical evidence suggests that “twin divergence” is a more usual feature of the historical data, i.e., when fiscal accounts worsen, the current account improves and vice versa. This paper empirically studies the effects of fiscal policy (government budget deficit shocks) on the current account and the real exchange rate, during the flexible exchange rate regime period. Based on VAR (Vector Auto-Regression) models, we identified “exogenous” fiscal policy shocks after controlling for business cycle effects on fiscal balances. In contrast to the predictions of most theoretical models, the U.S. results suggest that an expansionary fiscal policy shock, or a government budget deficit shock, improve the current account and depreciate the real exchange rate. Increases in private savings and declines in investment contribute to the current account improvement while a nominal exchange rate depreciation, as opposed to a relative price level change, is mainly responsible for the real exchange rate depreciation. The “twin divergence” of fiscal balances and current account balances is also explained by the prevalence of output shocks, i.e. output shocks — more than fiscal shocks — appear to drive the co-movements of the current account and the fiscal balance.     

Money Does Not Grow on Trees: An Argument for Usury

Usury, charging a higher interest rate than thought by some to be “fair,” has had and still has, a bad press. Historically, it was heavily punished. It was then, and all too often is now, thought to be exploitative. Yet, as even the most economically unsophisticated must realize, both sides of these transactions must necessarily gain at least in the ex ante sense, otherwise one or the other would refuse to enter into the deal in the first place. The present paper is an attempt to justify the practice of charging interest on loans, at any rate agreeable to both borrowers and lenders.     

In search of e-service value: technology-exploitation vs. certainty-seeking online behaviours

The primary aim of this article is to ascertain whether the e-service value formation process changes as a function of consumers' technology readiness (TR). Through a field survey about ‘e-tail’ service value, this study finds that monetary cost is equally important for both high- and low-TR consumers. The positive effects of service-enhancing value components on overall e-service value perception are stronger in the high-TR group than in the low-TR group, whereas the positive effects of risk-reducing value components are greater in the low-TR group than in the high-TR group. High-TR consumers tend to maximise shopping value for themselves through planned online searching and purchasing. Overall, high-TR consumers are able to improve their shopping value through both ex ante and post hoc vehicles. In addition, high-TR consumers exhibit technology-exploitation online behaviours, whereas low-TR consumers exhibit certainty-seeking online behaviours. The article discusses study implications and suggestions for future research from the perspectives of diffusion of innovations, online transaction costs, and relationship marketing.     

Institutional determinants of ownership stake in cross-border acquisitions in Africa: The moderating role of geographic distance

We look at how emerging markets' institutional features affect ownership stake in cross-border acquisitions (CBAs) within Africa. Particularly, we show that the presence of shared colonial history between the home and host country and the extent of fractionalization distance and formal institutional distance influence the acquiring firm's decision regarding its ownership stake in the target. Moreover, we show that geographic distance between the home and host country, by augmenting uncertainty faced by acquiring firms, moderates the relationship between these institutional features and ownership stake. We test our hypotheses in a sample of 341 intra-Africa CBAs from 2001 to 2016. Generally, we find that greater ex ante uncertainty and ex post costs increase ownership stake. Specifically, greater geographic distance strengthens the positive relationship between shared colonial history and ownership stake and reverses the negative relationship between formal institutional distance and ownership stake. As for fractionalization distance, the relationship is more nuanced and needs to be further studied. We contribute to advance research on south–south CBAs in general, particularly within Africa, as well as to extend hostage theory in foreign market entry strategies in and from emerging markets.     

Promotion and Prevention Contracts in Distributor–Supplier Relationship Using Matched Dyadic Data

ABSTRACT

Purpose: This article aims to introduce and distinguish two features of contract design – prevention and promotion contracts – and compares their effects on opportunism within the distributor–supplier relationship. It also examines the moderating role of ex post contract enforcement strategies.

Methodology/approach: The authors test the proposed theoretical model by collecting matched data from distributors and suppliers in China. Moreover, partial least squares regression is used to analyze the data and test the hypothesis model.

Findings: The results show that a prevention contract leads the distributor to vigilantly avoid mistakes and punishments, thereby deterring him from behaving opportunistically. Alternatively, a promotion contract motivates the distributor to make an effort to attain potential long-run payoffs instead of short-term profits, subsequently restraining his opportunism. Overall, the promotion contract is more effective in curbing distributor opportunism than the prevention contract. In addition, the inhibitory effect of a prevention contract on opportunism is reinforced along with a severe contract enforcement strategy. By contrast, a promotion contract effectively mitigates opportunism with a swift contract enforcement strategy.

Originality/value/contribution: This study untangles two distinctive features of contract design – prevention-framed and promotion-framed contracts – and compares their effects on opportunism management. This study also provides a profound understanding of contract effectiveness by revealing the interaction effect between ex ante contract design and ex post contract enforcement.

Research implications: Researchers are encouraged to explore contract effectiveness from a framing perspective. In particular, ex post contract enforcement strategies should be included in research frameworks related to contract governance. Suggestions for further research on the effects of prevention and promotion contracts on different forms of opportunism are also proposed.

Practical implications: This article provides several insightful implications for managers in designing and enforcing contract in business-to-business marketing. Managers can strategically achieve control and motivation effects by consciously making framing decisions in the contract design, further curbing opportunistic behaviors. Moreover, managers can select a contract enforcement strategy in accordance with the contract type to maximize the effects of the specific contract.     

Trade Effects of the European Union's Service Directive: Contrasting ex ante Estimates with Empirical Evidence

One of the top priorities to improve the European Union's growth performance is the creation of a single market for services. The directive on services adopted by the Parliament and the Council by the end of 2006 aims at removing barriers to the free movement of service providers on the internal market. Previous studies quantified ex ante sizable effects of implementing the directive in its original form. This paper is a first attempt to evaluate ex post the trade effects induced by a directive – which excludes the country‐of‐origin principle – by performing a difference‐in‐difference‐(in‐differences) estimator on a sample of EU‐ and non‐EU countries in the period 2004 to 10. We account for non‐tariff trade barriers and the endogeneity of regional trade agreements and find that the service directive adds to a reallocation of business services trade within the EU. Accounting for the trade effect of past deregulations, the EU directive fosters a deeper integration of the new member states into the European service value‐added‐chain and promotes business service exports from third countries towards the EU significantly more than trade of country pairs in the control group. The reorientation of the EU‐15 towards the new members is in turn associated with less intense intra‐EU‐10 businesses, while business trade between EU‐15 members is not significantly affected.