The long-run relationship between stock prices and goods prices: New evidence from panel cointegration

We examine the long-run relationship between stock prices and goods prices to gauge whether stock market investment can hedge against inflation. Data from 16 OECD countries over the period 1970–2006 are used. We account for different inflation regimes with the use of sub-sample regressions, while maintaining the power of tests in small sample sizes by combining time-series data across our sample countries in a panel unit root and panel cointegration econometric framework. The evidence supports a positive long-run relationship between goods prices and stock prices with the estimated goods price coefficient being in line with the generalized Fisher hypothesis.     

The impact of government deficits on money growth in developing countries

This paper investigates the relationship between government budget deficits and money growth in the developing countries for which reliabile data exist. It is sometimes suggested that it is more likely that money growth follows debt growth in developing countries, due to the embryonic state of capital markets and because the central bank generally comes under direct control of the minister of finance. Our results provide only mixed support for this contention, however. In the majority of countries in our sample there is no evidence that government deficits affect money growth. For high-inflation years there seems to be more support for a relationship between deficits and money growth.     

Does money matter in developing economies? Some evidence from the Solow estimator

Building on the Solow seminal approach for estimating the output elasticity of money stock and on Startz's (1984) implementation of it, this article explores the role of money in the production process in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Due to lack of necessary data on interest rates in these countries, we use alternative measures of credit constraints as proxies. In contrast to Startz's conclusion for the U.S., our empirical results systematically reveal significant output elasticities of money in each of the three developing countries under study. This is consistent with the neoclassical monetary theory and its incorporation of real money balances as an important input in the production function. Moreover, as the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis contends, money appears to be complementary to physical capital in the three developing countries. Hence, policy-makers must not hinder the development of their money (financial) markets if they desire to promote economic growth.     

The Dynamic Relationship Between Housing Prices and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper studies the dynamic relationship among house prices, income and interest rates in 15 OECD countries. We find that any disequilibrium in the long-run cointegrating relationship among these variables is corrected by the subsequent movement in house prices in most of these countries. This error-correction property of house prices implies that most of the variations in house prices are transitory, as compared to the movements in income and interest rates that are permanent, suggesting that the short-run movements in house prices are independent of the movements in income and interest rates. The results suggest that only the permanent movement in house prices, income and interest rates are associated with each other. We also find that the correlation in house price cycles across different OECD countries has changed over time with the highest correlation during the boom period of 1998–2005.     

Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates

The recent literature on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) has emphasized the role of two phenomena that may lead to the rejection of the PPP hypothesis: structural breaks and non-linear adjustment induced by transaction costs. These two hypotheses are analyzed separately in the literature. We develop tests for unit roots that account jointly for structural breaks and non-linear adjustment. Structural breaks are modeled by means of a Fourier function that allows for infrequent smooth temporary mean changes and is hence compatible with long-run PPP. Nonlinear adjustment is modeled by means of an ESTAR model. Our tests present good finite sample properties. The tests are applied to a set of 15 OECD countries' RERs and are able to reject the null of a unit root in 14 cases. The breaks are usually associated with the great appreciation and later depreciation of the dollar in the 1980s and the ESTAR adjustment appears to play an important role.     

The value-added tax and growth: design matters

Previous research has shown that changes in the composition of tax revenue affect long-run growth. However, little is yet known about whether the way tax revenue is raised matters for growth. This paper examines whether, in the context of OECD countries, a revenue-neutral increase in the value-added tax (VAT), offset by a fall in income taxes, may have different effects on long-run growth depending on how the VAT is raised. We show that a revenue-neutral rise in the VAT promotes growth when it is raised through a rise in C-efficiency, while it does not when it is raised through a rise in the standard VAT rate, the rate applied to the largest portion of taxed consumption. C-efficiency measures the departure of the VAT from a perfectly enforced tax levied at a single rate on all consumption, which in advanced economies is largely due to the VAT that is not levied because of exemptions and reduced rates. Thus, our results suggest that an increase in C-efficiency, possibly reflecting the broadening of the VAT base through fewer exemptions and a more uniform rate structure with fewer reduced rates, promotes growth more than a rise in the standard rate.

     

Long-term changes in labor supply and taxes: Evidence from OECD countries, 1956-2004

We document large differences in trend changes in hours worked across OECD countries between 1956 and 2004. We assess the extent to which these changes are consistent with the intratemporal first order condition from the neoclassical growth model, augmented with taxes on labor income and consumption expenditures. We find that the model can account for most of the trend changes in hours worked measured in the data. Differences in taxes explain much of the variation in hours worked both over time and across countries.     

Determinants of Consumption and Savings Behavior in Developing Countries

The determinants of savings generally and the specific effectsof government policies on savings and consumption are pivotalforces in investment and economic growth. The Hall hypothesisstates that consumption is a function of lifetime ("permanent")income, rather than income in each period independently. Changesin interest and tax rates, money supply, or government expenditurewill affect permanent income and hence consumption and savingsonly if they are unexpected and thus not already incorporatedin the estimation of permanent income. We are unable to rejectthe Hall hypothesis in tests for developing countries when weallow for varying interest rates. We do find evidence of a negativeeffect of inflation on consumption, and a positive relationshipbetween the real interest rate and consumption. The evidencefor the Hall hypothesis also suggests that Ricardian equivalencemay be valid—this is Barro's hypothesis that the effecton savings is the same whether government deficits are financedthrough taxation or debt. Our preliminary testing, however,does not support Ricardian equivalence.     

Short-run money demand

The conventional wisdom holds that the short-run demand for money is unstable. This paper challenges the conventional view by finding a stable demand for M1 in U.S. data from 1959 through 1993. The approach follows previous work in interpreting long-run money demand as a cointegrating relation, and it uses Goldfeld's partial-adjustment model to interpret short-run dynamics. The key innovation is the choice of the interest rate in the money demand function. Most previous work uses a short-term market rate, but this paper uses the average return on “near monies”—the savings accounts and money market mutual funds that are close substitutes for M1. This choice helps rationalize the behavior of money demand; in particular, the increase in the volatility of velocity after 1980 is explained by increased volatility in the returns on near monies.     

Cyclical fiscal policy,credit constraints,and industry growth

What are the effects of cyclical fiscal policy on industry growth? We show that industries with a relatively heavier reliance on external finance or lower asset tangibility tend to grow faster (in terms of both value added and of labor productivity growth) in countries that implement fiscal policies that are more countercyclical. We reach this conclusion using Rajan and Zingales׳s (1998) difference-in-difference methodology on a panel data sample of manufacturing industries across 15 OECD countries over the period 1980–2005.     

Common stock returns,real activity,money, and inflation: Some international evidence

This paper tests whether the negative relationship between real stock returns and inflation in the United States is in fact proxying for a positive relationship between stock returns and real activity variables in six major industrial countries over 1966–1979. Consistent with Fama's ‘proxy-effect’ hypothesis, we document a negative relationship between inflation and real activity and a positive one between real stock returns and real activity variables. Real activity variables dominate money growth rates and expected and unexpected inflation in explaining real stock returns. A puzzling result that still remains is the positive role of money and the negative role of expected inflation in explaining these real stock returns in all major industrial countries.     

Trade in Financial Services and Capital Movements

International financial liberalization may alter saving–investment imbalances and patterns of capital flows across countries. Using a panel of OECD countries for 1990–1996, I examine how the liberalization of capital movements and financial services trade affects net private capital flows. Capital inflows tend to fall (rise) with the liberalization of commercial presence in banking and securities (insurance) services, possibly reflecting an increase (decrease) in saving. I find that capital account liberalization stimulates capital inflows, suggesting that better access to external financing helps sustain larger current account deficits. When cross-border trade is liberalized, capital inflows change insignificantly.     

Do negative interest rates affect bank risk-taking?

We offer early evidence on the impact of negative interest rate policy (NIRP) on banks’ risk-taking. Our primary result shows banks in NIRP-adopter countries reduce holdings of risky assets by around 10 percentage points following implementation of NIRP in comparison to banks in non-adopter countries. We augment this result by identifying NIRP’s impact on other aspects of banks’ risk-taking behaviour; NIRP is associated with reductions in banks’ loan growth and average loan price (by 3.7 percentage points and 59 basis points) and a rebalancing of asset portfolios towards safer assets. Secondly, we find the NIRP-effect is heterogeneous; post-NIRP risk-taking increases at strongly capitalised banks and at banks operating in less competitive markets that exploit market power to insulate net interest margins and profitability. Our robust empirical evidence supports the “de-leverage” hypothesis which suggests that banks acquire safer, liquid assets to bolster their capital positions rather than searching for value by acquiring riskier assets. We base our evidence on a sample of 2,584 banks from 33 OECD countries across 2012 to 2016, and from models that employ a difference-in-differences framework.     

Revisiting the new normal hypothesis

The paper estimates the impact of crises on output growth, augmenting Cerra and Saxena's (2008) analysis by extending the data until 2010, and by taking into account globalization and contagion effects. The paper finds that the decline in output growth rates following currency, banking and stock market crises are much larger in the sample ending in 2010, than in the one ending in 2001. The results are robust across different specifications and crisis databases. The paper finds that globalization, estimated using a factor augmented panel, has benefitted economic growth in the long run, but those gains have been diminishing in the new millennium. Moreover, globalization also amplifies the negative effects of crises, especially for upper middle and high income OECD countries, starting with the new millenium. As such, lower output growth is to be expected as the new norm, especially in these more advanced economies for a lot longer than what would have been expected in an usual cyclical recovery, confirming El-Erian and PIMCO's (2009) statement of a “new normal.” Last, but not least, the estimation using a factor augmented panel leads to results consistent with thresholds effects of finance and growth, and of globalization on growth.     

External balance adjustment: An intra-national and international comparison

Large external imbalances have become a policy concern. This study investigates the determinants of external balances for regions within a single country—Canadian provinces—as well as for a sample of 18 OECD countries. External balance adjustment may differ for provinces since there are few intra-national barriers to the mobility of capital, goods and labour within Canada. Also, because Canada is a monetary union, there is no currency risk associated with lending and borrowing across provinces, and this may promote inter-provincial financial flows. The estimates show that the short run response of the external balance to disturbances, such as a deterioration in the terms of trade, is typically larger for Canadian provinces than for OECD countries. There is also a much greater speed of adjustment of the external balance in the Canadian provinces. This faster adjustment speed, combined with the larger response of the external balance, means that provinces may see a quicker resolution of external imbalances, but larger deficits or surpluses may emerge before adjustment occurs.     

Financial progress and the stability of long-run money demand: Implications for the conduct of monetary policy in emerging economies

This paper examines whether recent financial changes in three emerging market economies in the Gulf region (Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar) have distorted the character and the stability of their underlying long-run money demand relations. Money demand instability prompts concerns about the appropriateness of targeting monetary aggregates and could weaken the presumed link between monetary policy and its ultimate objectives. Our results suggest that the quick pace of financial changes in the three emerging market economies did not cause undue shifts in their equilibrium money demand relations. Further evidence from direct tests of cointegration stability indicates the superiority of targeting M1 in the UAE and M2 for Qatar. In Bahrain, both M1 and M2 prove equally appropriate to guide monetary policy. Thus, despite the wave of financial developments that have recently swept the three Gulf economies, the evidence suggests that monetary authorities in these countries should maintain a close watch on monetary growth as a principal policy guide.     

货币供给、价格波动差异与经济增长:全球视角的经验研究

本文以OECD国家和金砖四国等为代表的发展中国家为考察对象,基于1980年第一季度至2010年第二季度的数据,通过结构向量自回归模型,重点就全球货币供给对不同价格水平波动差异,进而对全球经济增长稳定性的影响进行了经验分析。     

Cooperation in environmental policy: a spatial approach

Inefficient competition in emissions taxes for foreign direct investment creates benefits from international cooperation. In the presence of cross-border pollution, proximate (neighboring) countries have greater incentives to cooperate than distant ones as illustrated by a model of tax competition for mobile capital. Spatial econometrics is used to estimate participation in 110 international environmental treaties by 139 countries over 20 years. Empirical evidence of increased cooperation among proximate countries is provided. Furthermore, strategic responses in treaty participation vary across country groups between OECD and non-OECD countries and are most evident in regional agreements.     

Economic Growth and Inequality: Why It Matters and What's Coming Next

This article makes the case that the recent rise in income inequality in OECD countries reflects profound changes in the economic model that previously resulted in growth, prosperity, and social progress during the second half of the last century. The author begins by citing French economist Thomas Piketty's identification of the key driver of rising income inequality as the recent sharp increase in the share of national income going to capital (defined as interest, dividends and other investment returns) and the accompanying decline in the share going to labor (in the form of wages, salaries, pension, and other work‐related benefits). For most of the last 100 years, a successful balance was struck in a majority of OECD countries between the returns to capital and labor. Within the framework of nationally defined economies, labor could effectively advocate for its share of the productivity gains by capital, and governments had the ability to constrain the free movement of capital, set labor compensation standards, and redistribute income through progressive taxation. The author explores how two developments—globalization and the rise of machine intelligence—are disrupting this social contract and reshaping our economy and society. The combination of these two developments, by accelerating the flow of income to capital and away from labor, is eroding the historical relationship between capital, labor, and governments that has long prevailed in most OECD countries. As this happens, we are seeing rising income inequality and the erosion of the middle class, which had been the driver of economic growth for most of the past century. Indeed, the thesis of Piketty's book, Capital in the Twenty‐First Century, is that such an effect may well be taking us back to the pre‐20th century norm of high income inequality and low economic growth. In his closing arguments, the author suggests that avoiding this scenario will be more complicated than simply raising taxes on capital, as proposed by Piketty. It may well require a fundamental rethinking of the role of employment as the primary mechanism for income distribution in society and how we prepare our workforce for an economy and society in which the concept of work will be radically redefined.     

FISCAL DEFICITS AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Although fiscal adjustment was urged on developing countriesduring the 1980s to lead them out of economic malaise, considerableuncertainty remains about the relations between fiscal policyand macroeconomic performance. To illustrate how financial markets,private spending, and the external sector react to fiscal policies,the behavior of holdings of money and public debt, private consumptionand investment, the trade balance, and the real exchange rateis modeled for a sample of ten developing countries. The studiesfind strong evidence that over the medium term, money financingof the deficit leads to higher inflation, while debt financingleads to higher real interest rates or increased repressionof financial markets, with the fiscal gains coming at increasinglyunfavorable terms. Consumers respond differently to conventionaltaxes, unconventional taxes (through inflation or interest andcredit controls), and debt financing, in ways that make fiscaladjustment the most effective means of increasing national saving.Private investment—but not private consumption—issensitive to the real interest rate, which rises under domesticborrowing to finance the deficit. Contrary to the popular presumption,in some countries private investment increases when public investmentdecreases. There is strong evidence that fiscal deficits spillover into external deficits, leading to appreciation of thereal exchange rate. Fiscal deficits and growth are self-reinforcing:good fiscal management preserves access to foreign lending andavoids the crowding out of private investment, while growthstabilizes the budget and improves the fiscal position. Thevirtuous circle of growth and good fiscal management is oneof the strongest arguments for a policy of low and stable fiscaldeficits.