Putting Canada in the penalty box: Trade and welfare effects of eliminating North American Free Trade Agreement

Three years ago, very few economists would have imagined that one of the newest and fastest growing research areas in international trade is the use of quantitative trade models to estimate the economic welfare losses from dissolutions of major countries' economic integration agreements (EIAs). In 2016, "Brexit" was passed in a UK referendum. Moreover, in 2019, the existence of the entire North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is at risk if the US withdraws—a threat President Trump has made if the proposed US–Mexico–Canada Agreement is not passed by the US Congress. We use state‐of‐the‐art econometric methodology to estimate the partial (average treatment) effects on international trade flows of the six major types of EIAs. Armed with precise estimates of the average treatment effect for a free trade agreement, we examine the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the elimination of NAFTA (and for robustness US withdrawal only). Although all the member countries' standards of living fall, surprisingly the smallest economy, Mexico, is not the biggest loser; Canada is the biggest loser. Canada's welfare (per capita income) loss of 2.11% is nearly two times that of Mexico's loss of 1.15% and is nearly eight times the US' loss of 0.27%. The simulations will illustrate the important influence of trade costs—international and intranational—in contributing to the gains (or losses) from an EIA's formation (or elimination).     

Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement: An Analysis

ABSTRACT

The Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement (FTA) came into effect in June 1997. This paper examines the rationale for free trade negotiations between Canada and Chile. Key trade and investment issues in the Canada-Chile FTA are also discussed. Although it is only a few years since the Canada-Chile FTA entered into force, the preliminary results indicate impressive growth in trade and investment between the two countries.

RESUMEN. El Acuerdo de Libre Comercio Canadá-Chile (ALC) entró en vigor en junio 1997. Este documento examina el razonamiento que respalda las negociaciones entre Canadá y Chile sobre el Acuerdo de libre comercio. También abraca los temas más importantes sobre el comercio e inversiones entre Canadá-Chile. A pesar del poco tiempo transcurrido desde que se implantó el acuerdo de ALC entre Canadá y Chile, los resultados preliminarios indican una impresionante tasa de crecimiento entre las inversiones realizadas entre ambos países.

RESUMO. O Acordo de Livre Comércio (ALC) Canadá-Chile entrou em vigor em junho de 1997. Este estudo investiga os fundamentos das livres negociaç[otilde]es comerciais entre o Canadá e o Chile. São abordados, também, o comércio principal e os investimentos realizados no ALC Canadá-Chile. Apesar de estar em vigor há poucos anos, os resultados preliminares deste acordo indicam um crescimento impressionante no comércio e nos investimentos entre os dois países.     

ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement: Evaluating Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects

The present study attempts to provide insight into the trade creation and trade diversion effects of ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement in goods, which came into force in 2010. The paper applies a theoretically consistent gravity model and uses empirically robust procedures such as ordinary least squares and pseudo-Poisson maximum likelihood in order to analyze the ex post effects of the agreement at an aggregate level. The results reveal that standard gravity variables are statistically significant and report expected signs, yet a reduction in export flows has been observed following the implementation of the free trade agreement, giving rise to pure trade diversion effects.     

The deceptive allure of a Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement: A US perspective

The idea of a Transatlantic Free Trade Agreement enjoys strong support in both the United States and Europe. Our author takes a critical view of such an agreement in the light both of his overall assessment of the implications of regional trading pacts for the larger multilateral trading system and of issues raised by the particular details of a US-EU agreement. This article is based on a paper presented at the 1998 Congress of Istanbul, The New Atlantic Initiative, May 1–3, 1998.     

China and Chile Signing Free Trade Agreement

Mr. Bo Xilai, Minister of Commerce of China, and Mr.Walker, Foreign Minister of Chile, signed the China-Chile FTA on behalf of their respective government on November 18, 2005. Chinese President Hu Jintao and Chile President Lagos attended the signing ceremony, according to a press release on the website of Network Center of MOFCOM.……     

China and Chile Signing Free Trade Agreement

Mr. Bo Xilai, Minister of Commerce of China, and Mr.Walker, Foreign Minister of Chile, signed the China-Chile FTA on behalf of their respective government on November 18, 2005. Chinese President Hu Jintao and Chile President Lagos attended the signing ceremony, according to a press release on the website of Network Center of MOFCOM.     

China,Pakistan Sign Free Trade Agreement

The People＇s Republic of China ＆ Pakistan Islamic Republic Free Trade Agreement （FTA） was signed by Chinese Commerce Minister Bo Xilai and his Pakistani counterpart Jumayun Akhtar Khan, in the presence of Chinese President Hu Jintao and his Pakistani counterpart Pervez Musharraf in Islamabad,     

解析欧盟韩国自由贸易协定

2011年7月1日欧盟韩国自由贸易协定生效实施。该协定成为各自经济体与贸易伙伴签署的最大的自由贸易协定。该协定既是双边密切经济关系的需要,也是各自实施FTA战略的结果。欧盟韩国自由贸易协定是迄今为止在全球范围很全面的贸易自由化协定,开放深度和广度远远超过世界贸易组织。欧盟韩国自由贸易协定的出现推动了区域经济一体化的进程。韩国目前在中日韩三国各自实施FTA战略上占据了有利的地位。     

国外自由贸易协定研究新进展

在国际经济学的传统视野中,自由贸易协定曾经一度占据贸易自由化研究领域的核心地位。但当第二波区域主义抬头之时,传统的理论范式和方法论面对区域贸易模式变化、双边贸易协定增加、非成员国福利损益、国内政治因素制约以及多形式一体化共存等新现象的解释,显得无能为力。文章就自由贸易协定研究方面的新问题,对当前学界的主要观点与研究思路进行梳理,并从理论研究与经验实证两个方面对国外主要研究成果加以整理,以期对该领域的进一步研究有所裨益。     

《美韩自由贸易协定》投资章刍议

《美韩自由贸易协定》投资章内容包括实体性规定和程序性规定,实体性规定主要体现在有关投资定义、待遇、征收补偿、转移、业绩要求和不符措施等条款上,这些规定体现了高水平的投资保护和投资自由化,对中国参与国际投资规则谈判乃至中国(上海)自由贸易试验区投资管理体制的改革提供有益的借鉴与启示。     

APEC实现自由贸易安排的可行性分析

APEC实现自由贸易安排的目的与WTO是一致的。APEC已经形成了实现自由贸易安排的平台;APEC已经具有了实现自由贸易安排的合作基础;APEC发达工业化成员经济体在努力推进自由贸易安排的实现;次区域经济合作的发展将推动APEC走向自由贸易安排。由此得出APEC实现自由贸易安排是可行的。