从内部资本市场角度分析新兴市场企业集团多元化

活跃于高速发展的市场经济环境中的多元化企业集团,是现代新兴市场中的主导性企业组织,新形势下从内部资本市场角度对新兴市场企业集团多元化展开研究,具有十分重要的现实意义和战略意义。     

我国沪深300股指期货价格发现功能的实证分析

我国股指期货的推出对证券市场产生了巨大的影响,改变了股票市场缺乏规避系统性风险工具的现状,给金融市场带来新的生机与活力。本文采用协整检验、误差修正模型、方差分解和脉冲响应函数实证分析了我国股票市场和期货市场的价格发现功能。研究发现股指期货在价格发现上占主导地位,表明我国股指期货的推出,增强了市场效率,使市场信息能够更快捷的传达。     

新兴技术及其产品项目价值的评价分析

由于技术和市场的高度不确定性,新兴技术产品扩散不能仅仅以产出量或市场大小来衡量其经营的成败。本文提出交叉熵方法衡量新兴技术产品扩散成败,并进行了风险投资的决策分析。     

On illiquidity of an emerging sovereign bond market

This study offers an analysis of a sovereign bond market in an emerging country, Turkey, and its illiquidity. We employ the Nelson-Siegel model to generate a term structure for interest rates directly from daily bond price quotes in the Turkish market. We take the noise measure, which is the byproduct of term structure estimation, as a proxy for market-wide illiquidity. Our results show that this noise measure can capture the illiquidity in the Turkish fixed-income market from global financial turbulence as well as local dynamics. Inflation uncertainty and sentiment are the major macro drivers of liquidity crunches. It has also become clear that liquidity in an emerging market such as Turkey in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis has been driven by global forces, however, since 2013 local factors have taken over. This apparent decoupling in liquidity between a major emerging market and global markets followed the approaching end of quantitative easing and a rise in economic turbulence in the country since then.     

Pecking Order Behavior in Emerging Markets*

This paper examines the validity of the pecking order hypothesis in 23 emerging market countries. Emerging market countries would appear to be an ideal setting for the pecking order hypothesis to hold because of the presence of strong asymmetric information issues and agency costs. We observe, however, little support for the pecking order hypothesis as the primary financing theory for all emerging market firms. Firms in these countries finance their deficit mainly with equity, the opposite of what would be expected under this hypothesis. However, we do find support for the pecking order for firms in emerging market countries that suffer the most from either asymmetric information issues and/or agency costs. Our findings are consistent with the idea that the environment the firm operates in influences the financial decisions the firm makes.     

R&D and Tobin's q in an emerging financial market: the case of the Athens Stock Exchange

This paper aims at providing further evidence on the consequences of R&D investment on Tobin's q for firms publicly traded in an emerging financial market. Panel data methodology is applied using data for the manufacturing and computer firms listed in the Athens Stock Exchange, a market classified as emerging by the major securities analysts, for the period 1996–2004. The empirical findings show first, that the Greek firms' R&D investment effect on the market value of a firm is consistent with other US and European studies. Second, the impact of the R&D investment on the market value is higher for small firms. The findings of this paper may have significant industrial and technological policy implications for other emerging markets sharing similar characteristics to Greece. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国：将向世界出口“执行”

多年以来,那些跨国公司CEO认为在中国执行并不需要世界级水平,而本土公司CEO则强调中国式执行,但是麦肯锡经过调研发现,中国正在从一个新兴市场转变为一个成熟市场。在新兴市场,管理者所做的大部分战略和运营决策都取决于当地环境;     

Value at risk models for volatile emerging markets equity portfolios

This paper investigates the issue of market risk quantification for emerging and developed market equity portfolios. A very wide spectrum of popular and widely used in practice Value at Risk (VaR) models are evaluated and compared with Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and adaptive filtered models, during normal, crises, and post-crises periods. The results are interesting and indicate that despite the documented differences between emerging and developed markets, the most successful VaR models are common for both asset classes. Furthermore, in the case of the (fatter tailed) emerging market equity portfolios, most VaR models turn out to yield conservative risk forecasts, in contrast to developed market equity portfolios, where most models underestimate the realized VaR. VaR estimation during periods of financial turmoil seems to be a difficult task, particularly in the case of emerging markets and especially for the higher loss quantiles. VaR models seem to be affected less by crises periods in the case of developed markets. The performance of the parametric (non-parametric) VaR models improves (deteriorates) during post-crises periods due to the inclusion of extreme events in the estimation sample.     

Spillovers and diversification potential of bank equity returns from developed and emerging America

We examine the network spillovers, portfolio allocation characteristics and diversification potential of bank returns from developed and emerging America. We draw our results by applying a directional spillover index, the tail-event driven network (TENET) and nonlinear portfolio optimization methods on bank returns. We find that the spillovers and connectedness among banks from emerging America are noticeably smaller than those among banks from developed America. The largest emerging market spillover transmitters and receivers are the banks from Brazil, followed by the banks from Chile. The largest developed market spillover transmitter is JP Morgan Chase. The connectedness among banks from developed America is dominated by the banks from the USA, relative to those from Canada. The total connectedness of the emerging market banks is more intensified than that of the banks from developed America due to the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. The portfolio optimization shows that in developed America, the largest banks from the USA are the largest risk contributors to total portfolio risk, whereas the banks from Canada contribute the least risk. In emerging America, the banks from Brazil contribute the most risk to total portfolio risk while the banks from Peru and one bank from Colombia contribute the least risk. The portfolio of banks from emerging America offers greater diversification potential and lower total portfolio allocation risk.     

Inflation targeting and expectation anchoring: Evidence from developed and emerging market economies

Inflation expectations can be inferred from treasury yields data. Previous studies utilizing such data have found evidence for the role of inflation targeting in anchoring inflation expectations in a number of developed market economies. The goal of this paper is to extend the evidence for emerging market economies. We estimate inflation expectations from nominal treasury yields data and infer the anchoring of inflation expectations from the sensitivity of inflation expectations to current inflation rates. Our analysis shows that the effect of inflation targeting is statistically significant in emerging market economies as well as in developed market economies and that the magnitude is marginally greater in the former. Our results are robust to alternative specifications.     

Emerging Multinationals from Mid‐Range Economies: The Influence of Institutions and Factor Markets

This paper revisits and extends our earlier work (in 2005) in the pages of this journal. We argue that there is a need for more fine‐grained understanding of the country context along two dimensions: (1) institutional development and (2) infrastructure and factor market development. Specifically, we propose an enriched typology of emerging economies with a focus on mid‐range emerging economies, which are positioned between traditional emerging economies and newly developed economies. Then we examine new multinationals from these mid‐range emerging economies that have internationalized both regionally and globally. We outline directions for further research based on this typology in terms of (1) government influence, (2) resource orchestration, (3) market entry, and (4) corporate governance regarding the internationalization strategy of these emerging multinationals from mid‐range economies.     

Money market pressure in emerging economies: International contagion versus domestic determinants

Recent market turmoil has again raised the threat of banking crises worldwide. Might these crises be contagious internationally, or are fundamentals more likely to be responsible? This study creates monthly indices of “money market pressure” (MMP) for 20 emerging markets from 2002 to 2010, before using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methods to test for various spillovers among money and foreign exchange markets. We find that MMP Granger-causes exchange market pressure (EMP) in most countries, but that causality does not run the other direction. Secondly, MMP seems to be more contagious in Southeast Asia than in Latin America or among large emerging markets globally, and the most financially open economies are most susceptible to “direct” spillovers that do not operate through exchange markets. Finally, when examining domestic influences in large emerging markets, output drops are most likely to increase MMP.     

Equity market contagion during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the world's eight largest economies

The global financial crisis (2007–2009) saw sharp declines in stock markets around the world, affecting both advanced and emerging markets. In this paper we test for the existence of equity market contagion originating from the US to advanced and emerging markets during the crisis period. Using a latent factor model, we provide strong evidence of contagion effects in both advanced and emerging equity markets. In the aggregate equity market indices, contagion from the US explains a large portion of the variance in stock returns in both advanced and emerging markets. However, in the financial sector indices we find less evidence of contagion than in the aggregate indices, and this is particularly the case for the advanced markets. The results suggest that contagion effects are not strongly related to high levels of global integration.     

Accounting in Transitional and Emerging Market Economies

The aim of this introduction is to discuss some of the challenges and problems faced by researchers who are interested in conducting research in transitional and emerging market economies and to highlight some of the key attributes and characteristics of these economies. The papers contained in this Special Section are introduced by way of providing a brief overview of their contributions and identifying other important areas that future researchers might wish to pursue.

This Special Section of European Accounting Review is devoted to publishing papers on various accounting issues in transitional and emerging market economies. In this introduction, we aim to set the scene for the papers contained in this Special Section, to highlight some of the key attributes and characteristics of transitional and emerging market economies, to provide a brief overview of the contributions published here and finally to identify some other important areas that future researchers might wish to pursue.     

Emerging market mutual fund performance: Evidence for Poland

This paper provides evidence on the performance of mutual funds in a prominent emerging market; Poland. Studying an emerging market provides an excellent opportunity to test whether the consensus on the inability of mutual funds in developed and highly efficient markets to beat the market, also holds in less efficient markets. While the weaknesses of legal institutions and underdeveloped capital markets in emerging countries could negatively contribute to performance, a certain level of market inefficiency might also enable fund managers to successfully apply security selection and therefore beat the market. This paper presents an overview of the Polish mutual fund industry and investigates mutual fund performance using a survivorship bias controlled sample of 140 funds. The latter is done using the Carhart (1997) 4-factor asset-pricing model. In addition, we investigate whether Polish fund managers exhibit “hot hands”, persistence in performance. Finally the influence of fund characteristics on risk-adjusted performance is considered. Our overall results suggest that Polish mutual funds on average are not able to add value, as indicated by their negative net alphas. Interestingly, domestic funds outperform internationally investing funds, which points at informational advantages of local over foreign investors. Finally, we detect strong persistence in mean returns up to 1 year. It is striking that “winning” funds are able to significantly beat the market, based on their significantly positive alpha's. These results deviate from studies on developed markets that conclude that even past winners are not able to significantly beat the market.     

The Foundations of International Business: Cross‐Border Investment Activity and the Balance between Market‐Power and Efficiency Effects

The foundational international business (IB) scholarship grappled with whether multinational enterprises (MNEs) are largely efficiency‐enhancing or market‐power inducing institutions. Contemporary scholarship, however, often associates foreign direct investment (FDI) with efficiency‐enhancing properties and thus neglects the market‐power interpretation of the MNE. Such an imbalance is problematic given that the theoretical and empirical justifications behind the field's embrace of the efficiency interpretation are not fully evident. Instead, both efficiency and market‐power effects are seemingly present in cross‐border investment activity. Based on a comprehensive sample of up to 4,361 cross‐border investments materializing between 1986 and 2010, we present theoretically‐grounded hypotheses with regard to when market‐power effects will tend to dominate efficiency effects. We find that cross‐border investments undertaken by emerging‐market MNEs in both developed and emerging markets tend to involve substantial efficiency effects and minimal market‐power effects when compared with the cross‐border investments undertaken by developed‐country MNEs in both developed and emerging markets.     

The saving,human wealth and asset pricing nexus: Evidence from around the world

The present study examines the dynamics of the saving, human wealth and asset pricing nexus across developed and emerging economies. We introduce two equilibrium asset pricing models in an intertemporal capital asset pricing framework, including the priced factors human wealth and market portfolio in the first framework and the saving and market portfolio in the second framework. Both asset pricing frameworks consist of two-factor, four-factor and five-factor asset pricing models. We control for size and value factors in the four-factor model and size, value and momentum factors in the five-factor model. The IV-GMM estimation and GRS test results indicate that human wealth and market portfolio for the first framework and saving and market portfolio in the second framework are primary priced factors in explaining the average returns for developed economies and the aggregate level. On the contrary, both frameworks fail to yield significant results explaining the average returns for emerging economies.     

Nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging markets using global financial and macroeconomic diffusion indexes

This paper contributes to the nascent literature on nowcasting and forecasting GDP in emerging market economies using big data methods. This is done by analyzing the usefulness of various dimension-reduction, machine learning and shrinkage methods, including sparse principal component analysis (SPCA), the elastic net, the least absolute shrinkage operator, and least angle regression when constructing predictions using latent global macroeconomic and financial factors (diffusion indexes) in a dynamic factor model (DFM). We also utilize a judgmental dimension-reduction method called the Bloomberg Relevance Index (BRI), which is an index that assigns a measure of importance to each variable in a dataset depending on the variable’s usage by market participants. Our empirical analysis shows that, when specified using dimension-reduction methods (particularly BRI and SPCA), DFMs yield superior predictions relative to both benchmark linear econometric models and simple DFMs. Moreover, global financial and macroeconomic (business cycle) diffusion indexes constructed using targeted predictors are found to be important in four of the five emerging market economies that we study (Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey). These findings point to the importance of spillover effects across emerging market economies, and underscore the significance of characterizing such linkages parsimoniously when utilizing high-dimensional global datasets.     

Building a Strong Foothold in an Emerging Market: A Link Between Resource Commitment and Environment Conditions*

ABSTRACT This study examines how MNEs align resource commitment with environmental conditions (challenges and opportunities) when they invest in a foreign emerging market. MNEs often face a dilemma in allocating resources to this environment: without this commitment, they cannot build a strong competitive foothold; yet with over‐commitment, there is excessive economic exposure. Our analysis of MNEs in a major emerging market suggests that resource commitment is an inverse function of market uncertainty and this inverse link is stronger for less strategically proactive MNEs. Resource commitment is also an increasing function of market opportunities and this function is stronger for firms emphasizing demand‐side (as opposed to cost‐side) gains. In addition, in a highly volatile industry, resource commitment is negatively associated with cultural distance, but in a relatively stable industry, it is positively associated with cultural distance. And finally, as foreign subsidiaries become older, the influence of cultural distance on resource commitment is weakened.