A business case for 5G services in an industrial sea port area

5G is a technology that was designed to provide citizens with access to faster and innovative wireless services. While different technical aspects related to 5G have been extensively examined by researchers worldwide, a lack in the existing literature is the economics of 5G in terms of business cases of specific 5G use cases. In this article we analyse the business case for three 5G use cases in an industrial sea port area, the Hamburg port in Germany, over the period 2020–2030. The first use case is enhanced mobile broadband and the results show a payback period lower than one year for all the scenarios analysed. The second use case is automation of container handling in the port's container terminal. It was found that the payback period is also lower than one year with a positive business case net present value in all scenarios studied. The business case of the third case, augmented reality for construction projects in the port's area, is challenging as the payback period was 5 years for the baseline case. Moreover, when performing the sensitivity analysis, it was found that in several scenarios there was a negative return on investment, and it was not possible to recover the investment over the time period studied. It can be concluded that mobile network operators will need to be careful as not all new 5G service offerings may have a positive business case. Future research work should focus on studying other 5G use cases in the port area, and on examining other industrial areas beyond ports such as airports, science parks and manufacturing facilities.     

On regulations for 5G: Micro licensing for locally operated networks

Future 5G networks aim at providing new high-quality wireless services to meet stringent and case-specific needs of various vertical sectors beyond traditional mobile broadband offerings. 5G is expected to disrupt the mobile communication business ecosystem and open the market to drastically new sharing based network operational models. 5G technical features of network slicing and small cell deployments in higher carrier frequencies will lower the investment barrier for new entrants to deploy local radio access networks and offer vertical specific services in specific areas and allow them lease the remaining required infrastructure on demand from mobile network operators (MNO) or infrastructure vendors. To realize the full vision of 5G to benefit the society and promote competition, innovation and emergence of new services when the 5G end-to-end network spans across different stakeholders administrative domains, the existing regulations governing the mobile communication business ecosystem are being refined. This paper provides a tutorial overview on how 5G innovations impact mobile communications and reviews the regulatory elements relevant to 5G development for locally deployed networks. This paper expands the recent micro licensing model for local spectrum authorization in future 5G systems and provides guidelines for the development of the key micro licensing elements. This local micro licensing model can open the mobile market by allowing different stakeholders to deploy local small cell networks with locally issued spectrum licenses ensuring pre-defined quality guarantees for the vertical sectors’ case specific needs.     

The role of mobile network operators in next-generation public safety services

Field of researchThis research is in the field of public safety communications in mobile broadband 4G/5G networks. The focus is on mobile network operators and their business opportunities in the public safety market.PurposeThe purpose of this research is to provide a review of ongoing public safety mobile broadband projects in which mobile operators play a key role. In addition, a business model analysis is presented to determine the role of mobile operators in these projects. A comparison of the two key business models is also included to reveal their general characteristics.Methods and dataThe research used a qualitative method, an inductive case study. This method was used to draw general conclusions from a small number of case studies based on ongoing public safety mobile broadband projects. The Casadesus-Masanell and Ricart framework and the business model canvas were used to analyse and compare the two key business models discussed. Data were collected from a variety of sources, including company reports, press releases, international events and conferences, and selected interviews with managers in charge.FindingsThe results show that mobile operators have new business opportunities in the public safety market. Their existing mobile networks can be used for public safety services with certain enhancements. Within existing projects, mobile operators have different business models. The two analysed models were found to require different resources and offer different business opportunities for mobile operators. Procurement authorities responsible for selecting business models are encouraged to pay attention to the choice of model based on, for example, strategic objectives.ValueVery little research has been done on the business opportunities of mobile operators in the public safety market. In this area, this study lays the groundwork for new research. Procurement authorities can use the results when deciding on the business model. Mobile operators can benefit from these results by better understanding their own roles in public safety projects and when assessing the business opportunities of a particular project.     

Urban wireless traffic evolution: The role of new devices and the effect of policy

The emergence of new wireless technologies, such as the Internet of Things, allows digitalizing new and diverse urban activities. Thus, wireless traffic grows in volume and complexity, making prediction, investment planning, and regulation increasingly difficult. This article characterizes urban wireless traffic evolution, supporting operators to drive mobile network evolution and policymakers to increase national and local competitiveness. We propose a holistic method that widens previous research scope, including new devices and the effect of policy from multiple government levels. We provide an analytical formulation that combines existing complementary methods on traffic evolution research and diverse data sources. Results for a centric area of Helsinki during 2020–2030 indicate that daily volumes increase, albeit a surprisingly large part of the traffic continues to be generated by smartphones. Machine traffic gains importance, driven by surveillance video cameras and connected cars. While camera traffic is sensitive to law enforcement policies and data regulation, car traffic is less affected by transport electrification policy. High-priority traffic remains small, even under encouraging autonomous vehicle policies. Based on peak hour results, we suggest that 5G small cells might be needed around 2025, albeit the utilization of novel radio technology and additional mid-band spectrum could delay this need until 2029. We argue that mobile network operators inevitably need to cooperate in constructing a single, shared small cell network to mitigate the high deployment costs of massively deploying small cells. We also provide guidance to local and national policymakers for IoT-enabled competitive gains via the mitigation of five bottlenecks. For example, local monopolies for mmWave connectivity should be facilitated on space-limited urban furniture or risk an eventual capacity crunch, slowing down digitalization.     

The impact of spectrum assignment policies on consumer welfare

The radio spectrum that governments license to mobile operators is central to the development of mobile broadband services. However, there is significant variation around how much and when spectrum is assigned as well as its costs. We assess whether policies to assign spectrum had an impact on consumer welfare in 64 countries during the 2010–2017 period. We find evidence that policies that reduce the amount of spectrum available to operators, delay the assignment of spectrum and increase the cost of spectrum all impacted two important consumer outcomes - network coverage and quality. The findings have implications for governments and regulators, particularly those betting on 4G and 5G as enablers of economic growth and sustainable development.     

The cost,coverage and rollout implications of 5G infrastructure in Britain

Despite 5G still being embryonic in its development, there is already a quest for evidence to support decision-making in government and industry. Although there is still considerable technological, economic and behavioural uncertainty, exploration of how the potential rollout may take place both spatially and temporally is required for effective policy formulation. Consequently, the cost, coverage and rollout implications of 5G networks across Britain are explored by extrapolating 4G LTE and LTE-Advanced characteristics for the period 2020–2030. We focus on ubiquitous ultrafast broadband of 50 Mbps and test the impact of annual capital intensity, infrastructure sharing and reducing the end-user speed in rural areas to either 10 or 30 Mbps. For the business-as-usual scenario we find that 90% of the population is covered with 5G by 2027, but coverage is unlikely to reach the final 10% due to exponentially increasing costs. Moreover, varying annual capital intensity or deploying a shared small cell network can greatly influence the time taken to reach the 90% threshold, with these changes mostly benefiting rural areas. Importantly, simply by integrating new and existing spectrum, a network capable of achieving 10 Mbps per rural user is possible, which is comparable to the UK's current fixed broadband Universal Service Obligation. We contribute to the literature by quantifying the effectiveness of the spatial and temporal rollout of 5G under different policy options.     

Impact of roaming regulation on revenues and prices of mobile operators in the EU

We use a difference-in-differences approach to assess the impact of the EU roaming regulation on mobile operators’ average revenues per user (ARPU) and the retail prices of mobile services. Our results suggest that due to the regulation the ARPU of EU mobile operators decreased since 2007 on average by 9.1%. When considering purchasing power parities, the decline of ARPU is estimated on average at 5.8%, but in this case we cannot reject that there was no decrease at all. We also find that the impact of the regulation on ARPU depends on traffic imbalances, which may be related to tourism flows, and has a stronger negative impact on operators from countries with a surplus in tourism traffic. There is however no difference in the impact of the regulation on cross-country and national operators. Moreover, our results suggest that the Roam Like at Home (RLAH) regulation implemented in June 2017 had no impact on the tariffs of national mobile plans.     

Municipal support of wireless access network rollout: A game theoretic approach

Next generation access networks are expected to bring ubiquitous broadband access and have attracted interest of municipal governments. This paper investigates the support by municipal authorities for the rollout of such a city-wide wireless broadband access network. Different business cases for 3G and WiFi operators are developed and it is indicated how to model the specificities for commercial versus public players. Furthermore, a game theoretic approach is used to investigate the investment options of the municipal player. It is shown that a partnership between a commercial and public player is the most likely investment strategy. However, bringing more players into the competitive environment reduces the intention of the commercial partner to engage in the public–private partnership (PPP).     

The competition among mobile network operators in the telecommunication supply chain

In the mobile telecommunication sector, the high competitiveness has increased the complexity of strategic interactions among operators. As the vertical integration has become anything but a choice and not a compelling technical solution, the contest takes place at different levels of the components of the operator value chain: the network infrastructure, the service development and supply, and the relationship with consumers.Mobile virtual network operators act as retailers and concentrate on the last segment of the value chain by establishing commercial agreements with hosting network operators, which act as manufacturers, to get access to radio communications infrastructure. Productive processes of mobile services offered by operators are different and this difference is imperceptible to customers. Processes difference mainly consists in the infrastructural diversity of the operators and implies different consequences on each network service element.A model has been defined to analyze the consequences of such diversity in the competition among HNOs, MNOs, and MVNOs by focusing the attention on the characteristics of the call path, in dependence of the types of operators. In fact, many variables interact to define the call path, such as marginal costs and revenues, infrastructural investments, and interconnection charges among operators. The analysis of the results, obtained by the model, gives information on variations of retail prices, market shares, and profit allotment, to adopt the proper strategies. In particular, the model results shed light on how certain MVNOs should enter the markets and adopt a collaborative strategy with HNOs. The model owns the capability of being applied to different contexts, thus representing for the regulator a potential instrument of relevant usefulness.     

Business case evaluations for LTE network offloading with cognitive femtocells

Mobile networks are increasingly becoming capacity limited such that more base stations and smaller cells or more spectrum are required to serve the subscribers’ increasing data usage. Among several challenges, the establishment of new base station sites becomes challenging and expensive. This study proposes and analyzes critical aspects of a business case where a mobile operator offloads its mobile LTE network by deploying cognitive femtocells. When aided by a sensor network the cognitive femtocell will be able to use frequencies other than the mobile network and hence increase its power to cover outdoor areas and neighbour buildings. This cognitive femtocell strategy will be compared with an alternative strategy where an operator deploys conventional femtocells and has to build additional base stations to meet the traffic demands. The business case analysis illustrates that there is a potential for cost savings when offloading the mobile network with cognitive femtocells when compared to the alternative strategy. It must be emphasized that the studied concept is innovative and that the business case period starts in 2017, hence, parameter assumptions are uncertain. Therefore, as the most important message of this work, sensitivity analysis is used to reveal the most critical aspects of the cognitive femtocell business case. It is found that the most critical parameters regarding the cognitive femtocell are the price for backhauling, the number of users supported and the coverage. Furthermore, an optimal coverage radius for the cognitive femtocell for lowest possible costs is found. Costs related to the fixed sensor network are found to be less critical since sensors are embedded in the cognitive femtocells. Sensitivity analysis is also presented for spectral efficiency, cognitive and conventional femtocell offloading gain, sensor density and price, customer density and price for base station site establishment.     

Business ecosystem strategies of mobile network operators in the 3G era: The case of China Mobile

In order to define the mobile network operators' strategies of building value network in the 3G era, this paper applies the ecosystem principles to the mobile industry through a China Mobile case study. Based on an analytical framework of such principles, this paper reviews China Mobile's ecosystem, and identifies its success factors and problems. The results indicate that a complete ecosystem, where mobile network operators collaborate closely with value-added service providers, content/application providers, equipment and device manufacturers, and other involved organizations, can promote the development of mobile data services substantially. Therefore, mobile network operators should play a central role in the ecosystem by managing the entire value-chain and setting up proper value-sharing mechanisms. However, while doing so, problems may arise because of regulatory issues and information asymmetry. High-value common assets, a centralized management system, partner selection schemes and continuous innovations are important success factors.     

TP case study: fixed–mobile interconnection in India

The Telecommunications Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) attempted, in late 1999, to introduce the calling party pays (CPP) regime for mobile cellular services, with a corresponding revenue-sharing arrangement between fixed and mobile operators. According to the revenue-sharing proposal, mobile operators in India were to be compensated for carrying traffic to and from the fixed networks. Under their original license conditions, fixed operators (usually one of the two state-owned incumbents) were not paying mobile operators for terminating calls on their networks. However, mobile operators had to compensate the state-owned incumbent for terminating traffic. This unfavourable environment for mobile operators has meant that mobile services have not been able to reach their full potential in India. There was great disappointment within the mobile industry when the TRAI's CPP order was overturned by the Supreme Court of India in early 2000, due to lack of jurisdiction. Since then, the enabling legislation has been amended. It is hoped that the new provisions of the TRAI Act will empower the regulator to establish a level playing field for mobile network operators. It is only through the creation of a suitable framework for interconnection that the TRAI will be able to ensure the success of telecommunications reform in India.     

A study on the deployment of high-speed broadband networks in NUTS3 regions within the framework of digital agenda for Europe

This paper investigates the high-speed broadband situation in the EU and its prospects. It uses a deployment model to estimate the investment required to meet the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) broadband targets set by the European Commission in its Europe 2020 strategy at different stages: as of 2016, after expected operators’ deployment, after public subsidies and leveraged investment, and as expected in 2020. The model uses data at the NUTS3 level, which is the most granular level that has data available on the status of broadband deployment, to arrive at a coherent and comparable framework. From the different perspectives on the investment to meet DAE targets, the paper concludes on the need for an appropriate combination of incumbent and alternative operators investments, public subsidies and leveraged investments, and new investments, both public and private and non-existing as of 2016, examining their feasibility and the impact of different regulatory, technical, and policy strategies.     

Broadband access in the EU: An assessment of future economic benefits

This paper evaluates the net economic benefits that would derive from the implementation of the broadband infrastructure deployment targets by 2020 as entailed by the Digital Agenda for Europe Initiative set forth by the European Commission. As a first step, we estimate the returns from broadband infrastructure for the period 2005–2011, differentiating the impact of broadband by levels of adoption and speed while accounting for reverse causality and extensive heterogeneity. In the second step, the cost of broadband roll-out is assessed under different assumptions of technical performance and contrasted with the forecasted benefits that derive from increased broadband coverage. We find that in the base case scenario the overall future benefits outweigh the investment costs for the European Union as a whole for the highest performance technologies. This holds also for the majority of member states individually. We further extrapolate the returns by country under different scenarios of implementation. In most cases the benefits are substantially well above the costs. Private sector is reluctant to invest, as investors in broadband infrastructure only can partially appropriate benefits. This would suggest a rationale for the public sector to subsidize build-out of high speed broadband infrastructure.     

The digital divide problem: An economic interpretation of the Japanese experience

This study presents an economic analysis of Japan's attempt to address the geographical digital divide problem for broadband and mobile telephone services. To receive broadband service local inhabitants make voluntary contributions, which are matched by a municipal subsidy. The approach is effective in terms of economic efficiency and equity. Importantly, as fixed broadband service is provided locally the benefits are limited to local inhabitants. By contrast, mobile service is provided via a spectrum user fee system. That is, for mobile telecommunication services, no universal service fund exists. The underlying rationale is that subscribers are beneficiaries and commercial decision-making should be left to mobile operators.     

Lessons from broadband development in Canada,Japan, Korea and the United States

Broadband network development does not always track closely a nations overall wealth and economic strength. The International Telecommunication Union reported that in 2005 the five top nations for broadband network market penetration were: Korea, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Denmark and Canada. The ITU ranked the United States sixteenth in broadband penetration.Aside from the obvious geographical and demographic advantages accruing to small nations with large urban populations, broadband development thrives when it becomes a national priority. Both developed and developing nations have stimulated capital expenditures for infrastructure in ways United States public and private sector stakeholders have yet to embrace. Such investments have accrued ample dividends including the lowest broadband access costs in the world. For example, the ITU reports that in 2002 Japanese consumers paid $0.09 per 100 kilobits per second of broadband access compared to $3.53 in the United States.Economic policies do not completely explain why some nations offer faster, better cheaper and more convenient broadband services while other nations do not. This paper will examine best practices in broadband network development with an eye toward determining the optimal mix of legislative, regulatory and investment initiatives. The paper will track development in Canada, Japan and Korea as these nations have achieved success despite significantly different geographical, political and marketplace conditions. The paper also notes the institutional and regulatory policies that have hampered broadband development in the United States.The paper also will examine why incumbent local exchange and cable television operators recently have begun aggressively to pursue broadband market opportunities. The paper will analyze incumbents’ rationales for limited capital investment in broadband with an eye toward determining the credibility of excuses based on regulatory risk and uncertainty. The paper concludes with suggestions how national governments might expedite broadband infrastructure development.     

Do International Roaming Alliances Harm Consumers?

This paper develops a model of international roaming in which mobile network operators (MNO's) compete both on the wholesale market to sell roaming services to foreign operators and on the retail market for subscribers. To allow their subscribers to place or receive calls abroad, they have to buy roaming services provided by foreign MNO's. In the absence of international alliances, competition between foreign operators would drive wholesale unit prices down to marginal costs. However, international alliances are endogenously formed since they serve as a commitment device to soften competition on the retail market, leading to excessively high roaming per‐call prices.     

Royalties vs. upfront lump-sum fees in data communication environments

Mobile communications markets worldwide, today, are saturated, the number of mobile network operators (MNOs) in market is declining, mobile revenues are stagnant or falling, MNOs are becoming wireless Internet service providers, and economies of scope are strengthening. This paper challenges existing dominant views on spectrum assignment and license fee payments, estimates spectrum fees that MNOs would have paid under royalties and then compares them with upfront lump-sum fees actually paid by 3G licensees. This paper further proposes that governments need to consider assigning additional spectrum to incumbents as needs arise without using auctions and adopting royalties as a way of collecting spectrum fees should they collect them.     

Technological and geographic heterogeneity in broadband markets: The challenge for regulation

When the telecommunications industry was liberalised in Europe and North America in the 1980s and 1990s, it inherited a legacy of monopoly providers whose footprint was national or multi-regional in its character. The regulatory framework, particularly that adopted in EU member states, reflected this pattern of relatively homogeneous deployment achieved, in part, by decades of cross-subsidised pricing and universal service goals. Perhaps because of this legacy, telecommunications regulators have often adopted the presumption that relevant markets are national in character, unless proven otherwise Although geographically-variegated regulatory remedies have been permitted (even in the face of allegedly national relevant markets) and adopted in many member states, many regulators have never done so, and overly cautious thresholds for permitting geographically based forbearance suggest a continued bias towards presuming national markets and remedies. We find that this presumption of uniformity and the tendency to aggregate geographic markets together is not supported by first principles of antitrust analysis, although there may have been strong practical reasons to apply this presumption in the past circumstances of the telecommunications and broadband industries.On the ground, however, there has arguably never been as much heterogeneity across geographies and across technological solutions that provide effective ultra-fast broadband speeds. Both technological (i.e., product market) and geographic heterogeneity are likely to increase with the advent of mobile 5G networks. With their deployment, a cautious regulatory stance towards geographic variation and a cautious regulatory stance towards inter-technology or inter-modal competition may result in regulation that could exceed what is required to ensure effective competition and could instead distort the incentives to enter of facilities-based actors. This may also result in higher-cost and inefficient investment. A more geographically varied and technologically agnostic regulatory framework may satisfy the principle of proportionate and focused regulation—with the possibility that the locus of regulation shifts from the access network to bottleneck facilities such as fibre, ducts and poles.This discussion is especially germane when one considers the highly speculative nature of forecasts and projections about future demand, and the competing claims of proponents of 5G and fibre. While there is some scepticism about the performance of mobile networks, we note that pure mobile and fixed 5G services may have synergies in deployment, and that the idea of competing with residential broadband services is a core strategy of very influential large-scale industry actors. In terms of a future research agenda, regulatory decisions could benefit from much more research into the relationship between domestic and global bandwidth constraints and their influence on development of software and application, as well as much more quantitative research by academics on the drivers of bandwidth demand. The risks associated with promoting investment that results in large-scale wasted resources should also be central to the regulatory agenda.