我国利率市场化进程的收益--成本分析

我国利率市场化进程是央行慎重进行收益-成本分析、权衡各种利弊的结果.建国初期严格利率管制收益大于成本,存在有其合理性;随着经济改革的深化,利率市场化的收益远远大于成本,因此利率市场化是我国利率改革的必然归宿.而进行收益-成本决策,使我国利率市场化选择了渐进式改革模式.     

我国利率市场化进程的收益——成本分析

我国利率市场化进程是央行慎重进行收益-成本分析、权衡各种利弊的结果。建国初期严格利率管制收益大于成本,存在有其合理性;随着经济改革的深化,利率市场化的收益远远大于成本,因此利率市场化是我国利率改革的必然归宿。而进行收益-成本决策,使我国利率市场化选择了渐进式改革模式。     

论我国利率市场化改革路径选择与管理

利率市场化是我国经济发展的必然结果,目的是为了更好地实现金融资源的有效配置.市场化道路上,一直存在激进式和渐进式改革之争.利率市场化改革是有成本的,如果成本在一定的时间内被收益所吸收,则改革更易成功;若改革的风险短时间内集中释放,往往会导致改革的失败.无论从国际经验还是从我国的经济发展阶段看,深化利率改革需要审慎遵循渐进式和有管理的改革路径.     

利率市场化给我国商业银行带来的机遇和挑战

2013年7月央行宣布,取消金融机构贷款利率0.7倍管制,由金融机构自主确定贷款利率水平,宣告我国进入利率市场化改革攻坚阶段。利率市场化这把"双刃剑",对商业银行业务结构和成本收益有重大影响。本文通过对利率市场化给我国商业银行带来的机遇和挑战进行分析,为商业银行如何应对利率市场化提出一些建议和策略。     

利率市场化给我国商业银行带来的机遇和挑战

2013年7月央行宣布,取消金融机构贷款利率0.7倍管制,由金融机构自主确定贷款利率水平,宣告我国进入利率市场化改革攻坚阶段。利率市场化这把"双刃剑",对商业银行业务结构和成本收益有重大影响。本文通过对利率市场化给我国商业银行带来的机遇和挑战进行分析,为商业银行如何应对利率市场化提出一些建议和策略。     

渐进式推进有管理的利率市场化研究

不管是利率管制还是市场化的利率,都是为了更好的资金配置。利率管制曾对我国发挥过巨大的历史作用,同时也渐渐不适应我国的经济现状。利率市场化改革是有成本的．如果成本在一定的时间内被收益所吸收,则改革更易成功：尚若改革的风险短时间内集中释放,往往会导致改革的失败。无论从国际经验还是从我国的经济发展阶段看,深化利率改革需要审慎遵循渐进式和有管理的改革路径。     

利率市场化对债务融资成本的影响研究 ——基于东部地区的企业数据

利率市场化改革对提高我国货币政策传导效率有重要意义.本文通过构建复合利率市场化指数,探究利率市场化对企业债务融资成本的影响,并结合所有权属性及企业规模深入研究利率市场化带来的差异化影响.研究发现,一是发达地区企业总体债务融资成本与利率市场化程度负相关,即利率市场化的推进有助于改善企业融资环境;二是国有企业债务融资成本受...     

利率改革效益期望与理性思考--对定南县农村信用社利率改革试点情况的调查

利率市场化改革是我国金融体制改革的关键和难点.为了推进利率市场化改革步伐,人民银行武汉分行确定了赣州市定南县农村信用社作为江西省唯一的利率市场化改革试点单位,于2003年1月1日起开始实施利率市场化试点工作,其农村网点的存款利率上浮10-20%,贷款利率上浮30-70%.至目前定南县农村信用社进行利率市场化试点已两个余月,其对定南县及周边地区经济金融市场有何影响?社会各界对此反映如何?我们对此进行了调查.     

基于利率角度的我国金融市场化改革风险与对策

一国金融体系的改革,都是以金融市场化为目标的.而利率作为衡量投资行为的价格成本,影响着金融市场交易活动的方方面面.因此,利率市场化是金融市场化改革过程的核心环节.通过分析以利率为核心的金融市场化发展趋势以及改革模式,找出利率市场化所产生的问题.着重研究利率市场化产生的金融风险以及对金融危机的诱导机理,进而完善利率市场化对货币政策的传导作用,并为维护我国利率市场化条件下的金融安全提供对策与建议.     

利率市场化对商业银行的影响及对策

利率市场化是我国金融产业走向市场的重要步骤之一,也是国民经济运行体制转变到市场经济上来的基本标志之一.随着货币市场的完善和利率市场化的发展,利率对我国商业银行收益水平产生了正、负两方面的影响,商业银行金融改革和创新对规避利率风险具有重要的意义.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

金融企业员工考核系统的设计

一、概述 为配合公司人事考核制度的贯彻执行,保证该制度执行过程中各项工作能够长期、高效、准确地完成,我们开发了公司员工考核系统,实现了人事考核工作中员工投票、考核统计、考核信息分析、报表生成等功能,减少了人事部门人员的手工操作,提高了考核工作的自动化程度.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.