Costs and benefits of controlling quarantine diseases: a bio-economic modeling approach

This article describes a bio-economic model to quantify the costs and benefits of controlling plant quarantine diseases. The model integrates the epidemiology and economic consequences of a quarantine disease. It allows for ex ante evaluation of control scenarios for their cost-effectiveness, taking into account potential export losses resulting from presence of the disease. The model is applied to brown rot of potato in the Dutch potato production chain. Simulation results show that under the current (2006) control policy, the average yearly costs of brown rot are 7.7 million euros. Reducing monitoring frequency increases the costs to 12.5 million euros, 60% of which are export losses. It is also shown that, due to potential long-term effects of a strategy, conclusions on cost-effectiveness of a strategy depend on the length of the period over which that strategy is observed. These applications illustrate the potential of the bio-economic model to facilitate the development of cost-effective and soundly based control policies.     

Assessing agricultural trade policies options with the European Union: a Brazilian perspective

Brazil has shown interest in agricultural trade negotiations at bilateral, regional, and multilateral levels. This study addresses several important negotiations, using the agricultural sector model CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis), to analyze liberalization scenarios between the European Union and the Mercosur countries focusing particularly on their impacts in Brazil. Four possible agreements between Europe and Mercosur are simulated, including a broader multilateral agreement proposed in the G20. The results suggest that a bilateral scenario involving larger tariff rate quota increase, as called for by Mercosur, generates larger gains than accepting the European Union proposal of 2004 or further multilateral trade liberalization based on the G20 proposal. However, much larger increases in tariff rate quotas for all products are not necessarily justified in all cases. Moreover, Brazil's production and export potential is limited by factors other than trade restrictions.     

Technological and policy options for sustainable agricultural intensification in eastern Uganda

This article presents a bio‐economic household model, which has been developed to assess the potential impacts of agricultural intensification efforts on economic and ecological indicators in eastern Uganda. A study region in the Lake Victoria Crescent was selected with comparative advantages for intensive agricultural production: high agricultural potential, high market access, and high population density. However, current production is characterized by low input–output systems revealing a discrepancy between development opportunities and actual development outcomes. Based on a farmer participatory research approach, production methods were introduced in the study region aimed at fostering sustainable agricultural development. Data from two community surveys, two comprehensive household and plot level surveys, and farm‐trial data were used to develop and calibrate bio‐economic models for four representative household types. Model scenarios reveal that farm households in eastern Uganda would not pursue sustainable intensification under current socio‐economic conditions. The market environment has to be improved substantially, i.e., transaction and transportation costs have to be reduced, innovative credit schemes for smallholders have to be introduced, and alternative forms of labor acquisition have to be promoted, to provide sufficient economic incentives for the adoption of environmentally sound production methods. In addition, agricultural service provision needs to be reformed and more agricultural research is needed for new and better‐targeted technologies.     

Differences in agricultural returns: an empirical test of efficiency in factor input allocation using Vietnamese data

We study whether rural households in Vietnam allocate their factor inputs efficiently. Factor returns and technical rates of substitution (TRS) between production activities are compared. We estimate two translog production functions and conduct three tests: First we test the equality of bootstrapped returns. Second, we use a bootstrapped t -test comparing the equality of TRS. Finally, we derive a set of nonlinear restrictions on our estimated parameters, which, if held, would imply that we cannot reject efficiency. The article concentrates on the allocation of factors between the cultivation of the two most important agricultural crops—sugar cane and rice. We cannot reject the possibility that households are efficient in their input allocation. These results are consistent and stable over different estimation techniques and support the assumption of profit maximization.     

Outsourcing and efficiency: the case of Spanish citrus farming

Outsourcing in agriculture has traditionally been seen as a managerial strategy of smaller farms to achieve higher levels of efficiency. In this article, we provide empirical evidence supporting the existence of a positive relationship between outsourcing and efficiency in Spanish citrus farming. Outsourcing is measured by the proportion of outsourced labor and capital in farms' total use of these production factors, i.e., the higher the proportion of outsourced inputs, the higher the degree of outsourcing. Making use of data envelopment analysis techniques, we compute input‐specific reductions required to achieve technical efficiency at the farm level. Our results show that attainment of technical efficiency leads to a reduction in the use of both farms' own and outsourced production factors. Furthermore, the degree of outsourcing increases as farms move to their technically efficient productive plans. In addition, outsourcing labor and capital allows farms to achieve efficiency regardless of their size. In our view, this result has a clear implication for policy makers. Instead of trying to improve Spanish citrus farms' competitiveness by pursuing an increase of their average size, policy measures should be adopted to enhance farmers' managerial skills and the efficiency of those external service firms and co‐operatives that are effectively performing basic cultivation tasks.     

CAP MTR versus environmentally targeted agricultural policy in marginal arable areas: impact analysis combining simulation and survey data

On June 2003 the final version of the Common Agricultural Policy Mid‐Term Review (CAP MTR) was published. The driving forces of this policy change include inter alia the compliance with World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations' requirements, improvement of social support for agricultural policy, adjustment to budget constraints and adaptation of agricultural practices to environmental requirements. This article reviews how this policy performs in marginal areas regarding one of those objectives: the provision of environmental outputs related to agricultural activity. As an alternative to this reform, a policy based on agri‐environmental measures designed to maximize environmental outputs, is proposed. Both options are evaluated from a cost‐effectiveness point of view. Data from a farm survey and a positive mathematical programming model for a cereal steppes agro‐system in Spain are combined in order to simulate the effects of this reform and our alternative instrument on several environmental indicators. Results show that in marginal areas, where land abandonment is a clear threat, more environmental output can be achieved for the same cost, while maintaining, if not increasing, the levels of achievement for the other goals.     

Does agricultural extension pay?

Compared to studies evaluating the benefits from agricultural research, there are relatively few empirical studies of the net economic benefits of agricultural extension, and even fewer that consider both public and private sector extension effort. In this study we examine regional differences in the adoption of lupins in Western Australia (WA) in order to estimate the net economic benefits of public and private sector extension. Impacts of extension and other variables on adoption were analysed for 40 shires using multivariate regression analysis. The results suggest that both public and private extension activities influenced farmer uptake of lupins, particularly by bringing forward the start time of the diffusion curve. Economic benefits of extension, based on the statistical analysis, were combined with costs of extension estimated from public sector records and surveys of private sector extension agents and used to estimate the net present value of extension investments by the public and private sectors in the study area.     

Appraising agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation potentials: effects of alternative assumptions

There is interest in society in general and in the agricultural and forestry sectors concerning a land‐based role in greenhouse gas mitigation reduction. Numerous studies have estimated the potential supply schedules at which agriculture and forestry could produce greenhouse gas offsets. However, such studies vary widely in critical assumptions regarding economic market adjustments, allowed scope of mitigation alternatives, and region of focus. Here, we examine the effects of using different assumptions on the total emission mitigation supply curve from agriculture and forestry in the United States. To do this we employ the U.S.‐based Agricultural Sector and Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Model and find that variations in such factors can have profound effects on the results. Differences between commonly employed methods shift economic mitigation potentials from –55 to + 85%. The bias is stronger at higher carbon prices due to afforestation and energy crop plantations that reduce supply of traditional commodities. Lower carbon prices promote management changes with smaller impacts on commodity supply.     

Potential impacts of Bt eggplant on economic surplus and farmers' health in India

In this article, the potential impacts of Bt eggplant technology in Indian agriculture are analyzed. Several proprietary Bt hybrids are likely to be commercialized in the near future. Based on field trial data, it is shown that the technology can significantly reduce insecticide applications and increase effective yields. Comprehensive farm-survey data are used to project farm-level effects and future adoption rates. Simulations show that the aggregate economic surplus gains of Bt hybrids could be around US$108 million per year. Consumers will capture a large share of these gains, but farmers and the innovating company will benefit too. As the company has also shared its technology with the public sector, Bt open-pollinated varieties might become available with a certain time lag. This would make the technology more accessible, especially for resource-poor farmers, entailing further improvements in welfare and distribution effects. The wider implications of the private–public technology transfer are discussed. Furthermore, the potential benefits for farmers' health resulting from reduced insecticide applications are examined, using an econometric model and a cost-of-illness approach. These benefits are worth an additional $3–4 million per year, yet they constitute only a small fraction of the technology's environmental and health externalities. More research is needed for comprehensive impact analysis.     

Technology choice under changing peanut policies

The effect of marketing quotas and price supports on technology adoption are examined for peanut production in the southeastern United States using a real options model of investment with output price and yield uncertainty. The optimal choice of peanut production technology (dryland versus irrigated) in the southeast is shown to depend on price supports and how they change. The manner in which price supports change will have an effect on the choice and rates of abandonment or adoption of production technologies.     

Explaining agricultural productivity growth: an international perspective

This article presents multi-output, multi-input total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates in agriculture for 88 countries over the 1970–2001 period, estimated with both stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) and the more commonly employed data envelopment analysis (DEA). We find results with SFA to be more plausible than with DEA, and use them to analyze trends across countries and the determinants of TFP growth in developing countries. The central finding is that policy and institutional variables, including public agricultural expenditure and proagricultural price policy reforms, are significant correlates of TFP growth. The most significant geographic correlate of TFP growth is distance to the nearest OECD country.     

Sectoral and poverty impacts of agricultural policy adjustments in Colombia

We aim to assess the sectoral and poverty impacts of changes in agricultural policy in Colombia. For this, we use an agriculture specialized static computable general equilibrium model, together with a microsimulation model that allows employment to shift between sectors. Results indicate that the sectoral impact from policy changes tends to be small and that it considerably varies across crops. The macro model yields some gains in wages and capital rents, a relatively larger increase in land rents, and limited labor reallocation, together leading to small poverty impacts as calculated through the microsimulation model. The incidence of rural poverty decreases by less than 1% and the same happens to the poverty gap. In addition, poverty reductions are concentrated among households near the middle of the income distribution.     

Productivity change in Taiwan's farmers' credit unions: a nonparametric risk-adjusted Malmquist approach

This article proposes an extended three‐stage DEA methodology similar to Fried et al. (2002) to improve the measurement of productivity growth when the assumption of free disposability of undesirable output does not apply. A directional distance function is used to construct adjusted Malmquist–Luenberger productivity indexes which simultaneously account for the impacts of undesirable outputs, environmental variables, and statistical noise. Panel data for 263 farmers' credit unions (FCUs) in Taiwan covering the 1998–2000 periods are employed to illustrate the advantages of this method. On average, the productivity of Taiwan's FCUs is found to have deteriorated over the 1998–2000 period. Although an improvement in efficiency has been observed, the major reason for the deterioration is found to be due to the regression of technology.     

Networks of knowledge: how farmers and scientists understand soils and their fertility. a case study from Ethiopia

This paper explores knowledge about soils and their fertility from the perspective of different players, including both scientists and farmers. Different understandings of soils and their management are seen to be bound up with the contexts within which knowledges about soils are created—the networks of players engaged in building knowledge, the settings within which ideas about soils are tested and examined, and the wider assumptions and beliefs that different people carry with them. The contrasting, and sometimes overlapping, understanding of soils by farmers, scientists and development practitioners in Ethiopia is focused on. Drawing on a range of documentary material and detailed fieldwork carried out in Wolayta, southern Ethiopia, over a number of years, the paper argues that a focus on the contexts for the generation of different knowledges helps avoid the unhelpful distinctions often made between indigenous and scientific knowledges, and moves analytical attention towards an assessment of who is involved in knowledge creation and the power relations implied. The paper concludes with a discussion of how multiple knowledges about soils and their fertility might interact in the context of meeting agricultural development challenges and the potential for a productive engagement between different actors and networks.     

Sheep as capital goods and farmers as portfolio managers: a bioeconomic model of Scandinavian sheep farming

A model analyzing the economics of sheep farming is formulated. The basic idea is simple. Sheep are capital and they are held by farmers as long as their capital value exceeds their slaughter, or meat, value. Farmers are therefore portfolio managers aiming to find the optimal combination of different categories of animals. Yields are compared with the yields from other assets. The model is formulated within a Northern Scandinavian economic and biological setting with a crucial distinction between the outdoors grazing season and the indoors season, and with adult sheep and lambs being different categories. In the first step, the management problem is analyzed with only the meat income of the farmers taken into account. In the next step, income from wool production is considered as well. The analysis provides several results that differ from standard harvesting theory.     

The effects of NCPB marketing policies on maize market prices in Kenya

The Government of Kenya pursues maize marketing policy objectives through the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB), which procures and sells maize at administratively determined prices, and stores maize as a contingency against future shortages. A private sector marketing channel competes with the NCPB. This article estimates the effects of NCPB activities on the historical path of private sector prices in Kenyan maize markets between 1989 and 2004. The analysis is carried out using a reduced form vector autoregression model (VAR) estimated with sparse data and imposing only minimal identification restrictions. Results show that NCPB activities have stabilized maize market prices in Kenya, reduced price levels in the early 1990s, and raised average price levels by roughly 20% between 1995 and 2004. Over the past decade, the price-raising activities of the NCPB have transferred income from urban consumers and a majority of small-scale farm households that are net buyers of maize to a relatively small number of large- and small-scale farmers who are sellers of maize.     

Regional obesity determinants in the United States: a model of myopic addictive behavior in food consumption

Obesity is considered one of the largest public health problems in the United States today. The premise for our study is a body of results from medical research showing that sweetened foods, i.e., an increased consumption of sugars, leads first to sugar addiction and second to carbohydrate addiction and increased consumption of fats. The latter feature is actually responsible for the increase in body mass index (BMI), but the trigger that produces cravings for extra calories is sugar and sweeteners. Based on our results, a myopic model of addictive behavior in food consumption seems to capture the food consuming habits and related outbreak of obesity among the American population. Our results indicate that lower current and past real prices of sugar contribute significantly to higher values of BMI, and increase the likelihood of becoming obese in the United States.     

The impacts of information on returns from farming: evidence from a nationally representative farm survey in India

Using a nationally representative sample of farm households from India, this paper examines the impact of use of information on net farm incomes. Employing methodologies that mitigate potential biases in the estimation of the impact, the empirical results show that farmers who use information realize over 12% higher net returns per hectare. The paper also establishes a pecking order in access to information. Small farmers and those at the bottom of social hierarchy (based on caste) have access to fewer information sources, and they depend more on informal social networks and input dealers for their information needs. The larger farmers and those from upper caste rely relatively more on sources such as radio, television and newspaper.