Does stock market performance affect the government satisfaction rating in the UK?

In this study, we attempt to answer the question of whether stock market performance affects the government satisfaction rating in the long run in a sample period spanning 1984:Q1 to 2013:Q2 in the UK. We examine both the equilibrium relationship and the causality relationship between stock market performance and government satisfaction rating. The results indicate that the voters are sensitive to the economic shocks and hold responsible for the government. The empirical results confirm the responsibility hypothesis.     

Who Benefits from Foreign Direct Investment in the UK?

The presumed higher productivity of foreign firms and resulting spillovers to domestic firms has led governments to offer financial incentives to foreign firms. We investigate if there is any productivity or wage gap between foreign and domestic firms in the UK and if the presence of foreign firms in a sector raises the productivity of domestic firms. Our results indicate that foreign firms do have higher productivity than domestic firms and they pay higher wages. We find no aggregate evidence of intra‐industry spillovers. However, firms with low productivity relative to the sector average, in low‐skill low foreign competition sectors gain less from foreign firms.     

Four scenarios for nanotechnologies in the UK, 2011–2020

The future social value of nanoscale science and technology (NST) has been repeatedly represented as revolutionary. However, government and industry support for the commercialisation of NST has to confront four key areas of uncertainty: concerning potential hazards associated with applications, commercial viability, public acceptance and evolving regulation. Academic and policy responses have to date largely emphasised the need for adaptive and anticipatory regulation, yet research which evaluates the prospects of success in implementing such measures has so far been lacking. This paper contributes to remedying this lack by examining difficulties and opportunities which may arise around this regulatory agenda in the UK, with the aid of a ‘policy Delphi’ exercise undertaken with a multi-stakeholder panel. It summarises four scenarios to aid policy-makers and technology strategists in the UK and internationally in thinking through how the future of NST innovation may be affected by factors associated with the aforementioned areas of uncertainty.     

Does advertising increase labour supply? Time series evidence from the UK

Wages in industrialized countries have risen considerably during the last 50 years, whereas hours worked, for manual workers at least, have decreased only marginally. In Europe, one policy response has been to attempt to protect workers from pressure to work long hours by placing legal restrictions on the amount of hours that may be worked each week. This paper examines the possibility that, in fact, observed hours may be the result of a desire of workers to work longer due to a shift in their preferences from leisure to increased consumption, caused by the huge increase in mass media advertising. A cointegrating VAR framework is used to test this hypothesis on UK time series data for both males and females from 1952 to 1997. Advertising is shown to be positively associated with hours worked for both male and female series. Causality tests indicate unidirectional causality, for males and females, from advertising to hours worked. These results suggest that the European policy response is more likely to restrict employee rather than employer discretion over hours.     

Productivity and long-term growth potential in the UK economy 1924–1968

This paper examines the long-term structural determinants of labour productivity for the UK economy using a panel data set from 1924 to 1968. Trade union, product market competition and human capital explanations are embedded within the model and compared. Labour quality, or human capital, is found to be the most important of the explanations considered.     

Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-à-vis her major trading partners

Currency depreciation is said to worsen the trade balance first before resulting in an improvement, yielding a short-run pattern labelled the J-curve phenomenon. While early studies tested the J-curve by using aggregate trade data, a few recent studies have employed bilateral data, mostly between the US and her major trading partners. In this paper we extend the literature by considering the experience of the UK. We test the phenomenon between the UK and her twenty major trading partners by employing data over 1973Q1–2001Q3 period. In most instances, we find no support for the J-curve in the short-run. In the long run, only in five cases has the exchange rate had significant impact on the bilateral trade balance.     

Is UK economics teaching changing? Evaluating the new subject benchmark statement

This paper evaluates the recent reform to the curricular governance framework for UK Economics teaching: the revised Subject Benchmark Statement document for Economics (SBSE). The crisis of confidence in economics which was amplified by the global financial crisis presented an opportunity for fundamental change in economics teaching. The paper asks whether the new SBSE represents change. We ask whether the new SBSE is pluralist with regard to economic theory and method; how it treats the economy and its wider socio-political dimension; what are its educational goals and approach; and overall, how much change has it brought? The paper concludes that the new SBSE does not constitute change: it still exhibits limited pluralism, ignores ethics, power and politics and ignores key educational goals.     

Does Multinationality Affect the Propensity to Innovate? An Analysis of the Third UK Community Innovation Survey

The paper is developed at the interface between internationalization and innovation studies. It utilizes data on innovation from the UK Community Innovation Surveys 3 and 2 (CIS3 and CIS2) to assess whether multinationality affects the innovation propensity of surveyed enterprises. The indicators of innovation propensity—our dependent variables—are taken from the following CIS sets of variables: innovation outputs; innovation inputs; innovation outcomes (patent applications); innovation continuity/sustainability. The latter element is considered to be the ability of the enterprise to sustain innovation over a long period of time and the relevant variable is derived from both CIS3 and 2 data. This allows the paper to introduce dynamic elements into the analysis. Four hypotheses are developed and tested. Our main hypothesis states that multinationality per se (i.e. being part of a multinational company network) affects the propensity to innovate. We also test for three sub‐hypotheses related to characteristics of multinationality: belonging to a group vs being independent; degree of multinationality; being part of a foreign vs domestic multinational. The results show that all those CIS enterprises that belong to a multinational corporation—whether UK or foreign—are more likely to exhibit innovation propensity; they are also more likely to engage in innovation activities on a continuous basis.     

Great ratios and Common Cycles: Do They Exist for the UK?

This paper investigates the dynamic interactions between postwar, quarterly UK consumption, investment and income within a VAR framework. Use is made of two developments which allow sets of restrictions to be tested and imposed, and which potentially make the VAR framework much more economically interpretable. One set is placed by neoclassical growth theory and involves the presence of common stochastic trends linking the secular movement of the series (i.e. the great ratios), while the other set is placed by notions of common, or more generally, codependent cycles which have their origin in ideas of comovements between growth rates. Evidence is found to support the existence of the great ratios for the UK, and evidence is also found of a codependent cycle of order one in the growth rates of consumption, investment and income, so that although the cycles are not exactly synchronized, the response of the three growth rates to a shock will be similar from two quarters after the shock has occurred. Moreover, it is lagged consumption shocks that are primarily driving the cycle.     

Entry and industry evolution: the UK car industry, 1958—83

This paper models entry and the subsequent changes in market structure in three segments of the UK car industry, 1958–83. The entry equation emerges from a dynamic optimization model which allows for the costs of acquiring market share. The model is used to explore the hypothesis that the market penetration of entrants in this industry was facilitated by a post-entry advertising war which the incumbent firms lost. The basic hypothesis under examination is that advertising both facilitates and restricts entry, but that it does so in a way that varies systematically over time. The data are consistent with this view, showing that high advertising shares readily translate into high market shares, but that the escalation of industry advertising caused by entry can make high advertising entry strategies increasingly costly over time.     

S-Curve at the industry level: evidence from US–UK commodity trade

Backus et al. in (Am Econ Rev 84(1): 84–103, 1994) found that the cross-correlation function between terms of trade and trade balance resembles the letter S and labeled it the S-curve. Support for S-curve is rather weak in some cases, most notably US when aggregate trade data are used. Empirical regularities based on aggregate trade data may suffer from a potential bias stemming from aggregation. Indeed, by employing US bilateral trade data excellent support for the S-curve is recovered. The support, however, was rather weak at the level of US–UK bilateral trade. Suspecting aggregation bias again, we employ US–UK trade data at the industry level and find overwhelming support for the S-curve. Furthermore, commodity attributes play no role. Valuable comments of an anonymous referee are greatly appreciated. Any error, however, is ours.     

Alcohol consumption in the UK, 1955–85: a system-wide analysis

As a consequence of economic reforms in China, firms have ben affected by three essential changes. First, instead of surrendering all profits to the Government, firms now pay tax on their profits according to a contract between them and the Government and retain the balance as their own controllable surplus. Second, the central economic plan determines only part of firms' production. After fulfilling the command plan, firms are allowed to adjust their production scale by the availability of inputs and the profitability of production. Third, most consumer and investment goods have two prices, a plan price and a market price. As most of the plan prices are always lower than the market prices, the latter play a basic role in determining firms' profits. After a decade of economic reforms, the important question is: can Chinese state enterprises perform like market entities? The analysis shows that Chinese firms in transition domimic the production behaviour of market-based, efficiency-oriented firms.     

Is attack the best form of defence? A competing risks analysis of acquisition activity in the UK

The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate whethercompanies can use acquisition as a strategy to reduce theirlikelihood of take-over. The determinants of making an acquisitionand being taken over are modelled for the first time withina competing risks framework using two large samples of UK manufacturingcompanies which together cover most of the post-World War IIperiod up to 1990. Our results indicate that, ceteris paribus,companies which make acquisitions can significantly reduce theirconditional probability of being taken over by around one-third,largely through the impact that acquisition has on corporatesize. In this sense, attack, through acquisition, is the bestform of defence against take-over.     

Economic class and the distribution of income: a time-series analysis of the UK economy, 1955–2010

This paper contributes to our understanding of the determinants and dynamics of surplus-value using quarterly UK data, 1955–2010, and the Johansen (1988 Johansen, S. 1988. Statistical analysis of cointegrated vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control, 12: 231–54. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 1991 Johansen, S. 1991. Estimation and hypothesis of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, 59: 1551–80. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM). A model is introduced to define this Marxian concept, before we explain distribution, paying attention to three forces that are traditionally seen as drivers of power in this struggle: (i) working class militancy; (ii) the size of the ‘reserve army’ of the unemployed; and (iii) political party. Our results demonstrate the ongoing relevance of Marxian economics in providing an alternative, robust and significant explanation of distribution in the post-war UK economy.     

Post-truth Politics,Bullshit and Bad Ideas: ‘Deficit Fetishism’ in the UK

Debates about economic policy in Britain have been dominated by claims that sovereign debt problems are due to loose fiscal policy and excessive spending rather than volatile capital flows and flawed monetary policy. There are strong grounds for believing that these stories are largely nonsense, yet they inform policy and are widely believed among mass publics, and have proved almost impossible to refute in everyday political discourse. The answer to this puzzle, we suggest, is that such claims are better thought of as bullshit (as conceptualised by Harry Frankfurt 2005) rather than outright falsehoods: in other words, as speech acts that are indifferent to the truth and proceed without effective concern for the veracity of the claim in question. In this paper, we examine the characteristics of political bullshit applied to economic policy debates since the financial crisis, and seek to explain its hold on the popular imagination. We assess what makes some particular brands of bullshit more successful than others, and argue that in a world of competing realities as well as competing theories, the power of rhetoric is more likely to settle an argument than evidence and logic.     

Forecasting profitability and earnings: a study of the UK market (1982–2000)

An approach recently developed by Fama and French (2000 Fama, EF and French, KR. 2000. Forecasting profitability and earnings. The Journal of Business, 73: 161–75.  ) is applied to the study of whether UK company profitability is mean-reverting. A sample of roughly 987 firms per year for a period from 1982–2000 is used, drawn from Datastream. In a simple partial adjustment model convergence towards the mean at a rate of about 25% per year is found. The results are very similar in direction to those of Fama and French (2000 Fama, EF and French, KR. 2000. Forecasting profitability and earnings. The Journal of Business, 73: 161–75.  ) but the results do not display significant non-linearities. The change in profitability appears to be more strongly influenced by dividends in the UK.     

Is Economics Responding to Critique? What do the UK 2015 QAA Subject Benchmarks Indicate?

Abstract

The Quality Assurance Agency for Higher Education provides subject benchmarks which inform but do not determine the content of university and college academic programmes in the United Kingdom. These are revised every few years and have recently been completed in economics for the first time since the global financial crisis. Given the extensive criticism of mainstream economics since the crisis, one might anticipate the benchmark revisions to be extensive. However, this has not been the case. This article explores why this is so. The analysis may also be considered of broader significance because the conditions under which the review has occurred involve general processes that will be familiar, albeit with local variation, to heterodox economists elsewhere. In the conclusion, a more fundamental reconstruction of the benchmarks is provided. These will also be of interest as general orienting statements for a different kind of economics.     

Age discrimination in the UK labour market. Does race moderate ageism? An experimental investigation

Governments encourage people to work longer in order that pension promises are sustainable as populations age. This approach presupposes that older workers are welcome in the market. This study undertakes a correspondence test to investigate whether ageism is prevalent in the UK at the initial stage of the hiring process. This study adds to the literature by investigating whether race can moderate the relationship between age and labour market outcomes. The results suggest that older people are penalized in the labour market. They have lower access to vacancies and sorting in lower-paid jobs. A minority racial background exacerbates both penalties. These new results call for anti-ageism and anti-racial policy actions in the workplace.     

Employer size–wage effects: evidence from matched employer–employee survey data in the UK

This paper employs a random sample of matched employer–employee data from the UK to test seven possible explanations for the positive relationship between employer size and pay. Individual wage equations show a large employer size–wage premium. We then control for a range of establishment-level variables, based on seven hypotheses typically advanced to explain this premium. Each establishment-level factor reduces the wage premium, but a sizeable premium nonetheless remains. In adjudicating on these hypotheses, we find a strong association between the internal labour market and the employer size–wage premium. This finding supports the theory that the employer size–wage effect may be due to the higher costs of turnover or monitoring in larger firms. However, we find contrasting effects for public versus private sector establishments.     

A real target model of wage inflation with variable union power: the UK experience 1962–1984

This paper offers a reassessment of the hypothesis that nominal wage determination involves Union real wage targets whose attainment depends on the bargaining process. The conventional model is augmented by the introduction of employer targets as well as nonlinear specification for relative power. Empirical evidence suggests that our estimates of Union power can partially explain share price fluctuations.