Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, contributed to the loss of capabilities and lagging behind.     

The equilibrium real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in developing countries

This article presents first estimates of the growth impact of the equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) for a sample of 63 developing countries over 1970–2007. The results suggest that real exchange rate misalignment, not the level of the ERER, matters for macroeconomic performance in these countries.     

论绿色GDP的理论基础与核算困境

利用关键性资源的概念,探索绿色GDP与其他衡量经济体可持续性指标的理论基础以及这些指标之间的关系,讨论用绿色地区生产总值衡量经济体可持续性存在的问题与绿色地区生产总值核算技术上的困境,为扫清有关绿色GDP核算的理论研究与实践工作的障碍提供帮助。     

Growth effects of FDI in 80 developing economies: the role of policy reforms and institutional constraints

Theoretical and empirical literatures have identified several channels through which foreign direct investment (FDI) influences economic growth. This paper examines the impact of FDI on economic output growth per worker using aggregate production function augmented with FDI inflows, economic policy reforms and institutional constraints. The paper covers 80 developing countries over the period 1980–2006. We use panel data and employ fixed, random effects and GMM methods for estimation. Our results highlight the importance of FDI, policy reforms and institutional development for growth in developing economies. Finally, we demonstrate that irrespective of reforms and institutions, an increase in FDI affects output growth positively.     

干旱区绿洲农业发展节水灌溉合作经济组织的特征与作用

干旱区农业节水灌溉合作经济组织是节水灌溉技术应用过程中一种新的生产经营管理经济组织形式。运用组织理论对节水灌溉合作经济组织的内涵作了具体的定义,从组织目标、组织结构、组织方式等角度对合作经济组织的特征进行了分析,对其组织发展的作用也进行了分析,并在此基础上,对继续发展节水灌溉合作经济组织建设提出了一定的建议。     

Banking sector development and interest rate volatility in emerging economies

Over the last decades, macroeconomic stability is said to be one of the major concerns of emerging economies. Financial sector as a core of macroeconomic stability has been under close consideration of policy makers. The relationship between interest rate uncertainty and banking sector development as one of the most important indicators of financial sector development, especially for emerging economies, has not received enough attention in the literature. Perhaps this article is the most comprehensive study that investigates the relationship between interest rate uncertainty and banking sector development for a large group of emerging economies. To do this, the short-run and long-run models using a bounds testing approach to cointegration for 12 emerging economies over the period 1980–2011 have been developed. Estimated results from all models indicate that interest rate uncertainty has significant effect on banking sector development in both short-run and long-run phenomena in the majority of countries. The findings indicate that the link between interest rate uncertainty and banking sector development in each country depends on each country’s specific structure.     

基于演化理论的生态效率影响因素研究

运用数据包络分析方法,采用1998—2012年中国各区域及1971—2011年国际各国的相关数据,测算了中国各区域及国际各国的生态效率,分析了生态效率的影响因素以及各因素对生态效率的影响作用。结果表明:影响因素对生态效率的影响作用在时间上存在较清晰的分界线,其影响作用在不断变迁;影响因素在不同的技术水平和制度环境下会对生态效率产生不同的作用;应结合技术进步和制度创新调整影响因素以达到提高生态效率的目标,单纯调整影响因素不一定能提高生态效率。     

The driving forces of the level and the growth rate of real per capita income in Indonesia

We investigate the driving forces behind the level and the growth rate in real per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Indonesia. The ultimate reasons and the proximate causes underlying Indonesia's economic growth since the mid-1960s are still unclear. In the literature there have been at least three ways of investigating the driving forces of economic growth in Indonesia, namely: growth accounting system, regression and causality. The difference and improvement in this article is that we employed a two-step bounds testing approach to cointegration, which has not been done before; it uses the endogenous growth model to consider 12 policy variables and two external factors that potentially affect per capita income, this number is more than that has been done before. The empirical results that we obtained using this two-step bounds testing approach help us draw policy implications that if or when implemented would be expected to increase the growth of real per capita income, as well as the welfare of the people of Indonesia. Economic growth in Indonesia is largely driven by government policy, so the ability to increase Indonesia's economic growth rate, in the long run, will largely depend on the implementation of appropriate government policies.     

北京的经济发展及其增长因素分析

建国以来，北京经济的发展发生了巨大的变化。对于经济增长的因素，主要表现在劳动力数量增加的变化和技术退步等方面。经济发展由资本和劳动力数量的增大等外延的发展形态转换为内涵的发展状态，即劳动力素质的改善、技术的追步以及资本集约度的上升等作为积极因素促进经济的增长。     

Impact of sanitation,safe drinking water and health expenditure on infant mortality rate in developing economies

Despite of significant growth in all walks of life, the issue of infant mortality still a major concern in most of the developing economies. The World Development Indicators have reported that 4.45 million infants died across the globe in 2015, meaning that 32 deaths per every 1,000 live births. A number of times, the World Health Organization (WHO) have stressed the significance of sanitation, safe drinking water and healthcare facilities in reducing infant mortality rate, though most developing countries still lacks in these services. Given this background, the present study aims to examine the role of sanitation, water facilities and health expenditure on infant mortality rate across a panel of 84 developing economies using annual data from 1995 to 2013. The study also account for per capita income and depth of food deficiency as the control factors in the model. The findings of this study establish a significant long-run equilibrium association among the variables. The long-run elasticities on infant mortality suggest that improved water and sanitation facilities, health expenditure and per capita income substantially reduce infant mortality rate, while food deficiency increases. Given these findings, we suggest that increasing access to improved water, sanitation and healthcare facilities will significantly reduce child mortality in developing economies around the world.     

汇率变动、对外贸易与经济增长——以湖南省为例

选取了2005年7月汇改以来至2013年12月的季度数据,通过建立联立方程模型,利用3SLS(三阶段最小二剩法)计量方法就人民币汇率的变动对湖南省对外贸易、经济增长的影响进行实证研究。实证结果表明:人民币实际有效汇率升值1%,经济增长速度降低0.612%;湖南省进出口额的增长速度降低2.79%,人民币实际有效汇率升值对湖南省经济总量的增长有紧缩效应。     

The effect of remittances on the current account in developing and emerging economies

This paper presents an analysis of the effect of remittances on the current account in developing and emerging economies, incorporating an assessment of the extent to which exchange rate regimes impact the relationship. The main findings suggest that there is a positive effect of remittances on the current account contemporaneously, but that the lagged effect is negative, which could be indicative of the existence of some underlying mechanisms characteristic of the Dutch disease phenomenon. In addition, the results show that a more flexible exchange regime dampens the contemporaneous positive effect that remittances have on the current account. The paper, therefore, asserts that policymakers face trade‐offs pertaining to the use of exchange rate policy in managing the effects of remittances on the current account, which should be given due consideration when such policy choices are made.     

中国居民储蓄率的决定因素——基于1995-2005年省际动态面板数据的分析

文章运用1995-2005年省际动态面板数据研究了城镇与农村居民储蓄率的决定因素,并检验了凯恩斯绝对收入理论与永久收入假说(生命周期理论)对中国的适应性。计量结果表明:城镇样本较好地支持了永久收入假说(生命周期理论),农村样本则较好地支持了凯恩斯理论。长期收入增长率是居民储蓄率的基本决定因素,高增长是高储蓄的主要原因。另外,居民储蓄的行为模式、人口年龄结构、社会保障制度、不确定性、信贷约束以及地区差异都是居民储蓄率的重要决定因素,但这些因素对城镇与农村居民储蓄率的影响存在显著差异。     

云阳县经济林资源现状及持续发展策略

本文详述了云阳县经济林资源的现状、生产中存在的问题，根据云阳县不同的地形环境条件和适应商品经济的发展，提出了持续发展经济林木的策略。     

The healthy development of economies: A strategic framework for competitiveness in the health industry

Applying a strategic decision-making perspective on the economics of business, we suggest that a competitive locality in the health industry is one that, relative to other localities, is effective in: (1) providing the healthcare that enables everyone to participate fully in the democratic development of the locality; (2) providing the healthcare that is democratically identified as a direct objective of this development; (3) contributing through the health industry to any other democratically determined objectives of the locality's development. The paper hypothesizes that strategic decision-making in organizations is an especially significant determinant of the impacts of the health industry. We conclude that: (i) a locality that suffers concentration in the power to determine the objectives of its health industry could not be strictly competitive in that industry; (ii) the first best way to achieve competitiveness in the health industry would be to democratize its strategic decision-making. What this would entail in practice is discussed in some detail.     

Determinants of the real exchange rate in the long-run for developing and emerging countries: a theoretical and empirical approach

This paper presents a new framework for the determinants of real exchange in the long-run in developing and emerging countries (DECs). We assume that currencies should be regarded as an asset. In consequence, dealers in the foreign exchange market play a crucial role on its dynamics. To set our model, we connect the model developed by Kaltenbrunner, which is grounded on chapter 17 of the General Theory, with productivity’s differential effect. By doing so, it states that even short-run factors and monetary variables affect the long-run real exchange rate. Moreover, it points out that the hierarchical nature of the international monetary system is crucial to understand exchange rate movements in DECs. Besides presenting such theoretical approach, our contribution is to test it empirically for 45 DECs from 1990 to 2008 by applying econometric techniques appropriate for panel data. We use a new data-set, which comprises, among other variables, foreign portfolio flow, interest rate differential, external vulnerability measures, and international liquidity, on annual basis. The empirical results endorse this framework. Overall, it shows the primacy of financial factors as determinants of the long-run real exchange rate and points to the endogenous and self-perpetuating nature of international monetary system hierarchy.     

The impact of the net percentage growth rate in the number of small firms on differential state-level employment growth rates in the US: an exploratory empirical note

This brief exploratory empirical note seeks to identify key determinants of geographic differentials in the percentage growth rate of state-level employment in the US, with the primary focus being on the percentage net growth rate in the number of small firms (i.e., those with fewer than 20 employees) in each state, where this variable serves as a de facto reflection of ‘entrepreneurship’. In the interest of identifying other key factors that influence state-level employment growth rates, the effective income tax rate in each state, quality of life elements and labour market considerations are also included in the analysis. The study period runs from the year 2000 to the year 2007, ending just prior to the ‘Great Recession’. The estimation results imply that the state-level employment growth rate in the US was an increasing function of the percentage net growth rate in the number of small firms in each state. Thus, it appears that the small firms growth rate may in fact be a significant source.     

Introduction: Reform in the Provision of Health Care

The term “sustainable consumption” is subject to many interpretations, from Agenda 21's hopeful assertion that governments should encourage less materialistic lifestyles based on new definitions of “wealth” and “prosperity”, to the view prevalent in international policy discourse that green and ethical consumerism will be sufficient to transform markets to produce continual and “clean” economic growth. These different perspectives are examined using a conceptual framework derived from Cultural Theory, to illustrate their fundamentally competing beliefs about the nature of the environment and society, and the meanings attached to consumption. Cultural Theory argues that societies should develop pluralistic policies to include all perspectives. Using this framework, the paper examines the UK strategy for sustainable consumption, and identifies a number of failings in current policy. These are that the UK strategy is strongly biased towards individualistic, market-based and neo-liberal policies, so it can only respond to a small part of the problem of unsustainable consumption. Policy recommendations include measures to strengthen the input from competing cultures, to realize the potential for more collective, egalitarian and significantly less materialistic consumption patterns.     

Sustainable Development in Affluent Countries and the Neo-Institutionalist Synthesis

Since development is a process rather than an end-state, all countries are always in a constant state of change, regardless of their level of income. This article focuses on the challenges that affluent countries face today in shifting to a sustainable development path. These challenges include improving the quality of life, achieving environmental sustainability, and addressing inequality. In the United States in particular, these challenges have increased in recent decades, despite significant economic growth. The neoclassical development model assumes that growth makes it easier to achieve sustainable development and that wellbeing rises with per capita income. We question these assumptions, and find a theory of economic development in institutional economics that better explains and accommodates sustainability. We draw on the work of many original institutionalist economists (OIE), and others working in this tradition, to analyze the challenges of sustainable development in affluent countries, especially in the United States.     

Thresholds in finance–growth nexus: Evidence from G‐7 economies

This study explores the finance and economic growth nexus in G‐7 economies as these countries experience significantly higher levels of financial development. Using a balanced panel of 31 years from 1983 to 2013, we provide new evidence on the finance–growth relationship. We show the presence of nonlinearity as there is an inverted U‐shaped relationship between finance and growth in the long run. Estimating the thresholds in the finance–growth nexus, we notice that there exists a threshold effect of finance at 109% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We observe that exceeding the threshold would hinder the countries instead of furthering economic growth as too much finance is harmful. Based on the panel Granger causality test results, we claim that financial development should be associated with optimal growth performance. Our findings for the G‐7 economies offer some useful policy inferences to the emerging and developing economies in designing their financial development strategies.