The Impact of Lifecycle Events on Women's Labour Force Transitions: A Panel Analysis*

This panel study explores the impact of different lifecycle events on women's labour force transitions. We explicitly investigate whether the factors that determine entry into the labour force differ from the factors that determine withdrawal from the labour force. The results demonstrate that labour force transitions – entry and withdrawal – occur more frequently among young women. The event of childbirth is strongly associated with labour force withdrawal, while marital separation and reductions in family earnings are strongly associated with labour force entry. Moreover, labour force transition probabilities are more sensitive to income‐reducing events than to income‐supplementing events.     

Optimal speed of transition with a shrinking labour force and under uncertainty*

In the 1990s – during the restructuring of large state enterprises – Central European economies experienced high unemployment. Social policy expenditures, particularly targeted to the non‐employed, grew faster than expected due to the need to finance the out‐of‐the‐labour categories. In 1992, after the Passive Labour Market Policies’ reforms, the pace of transition decelerated. Unemployment dynamics, speed of transition and non‐employment policies are modelled based on the assumption that the labour force is shrinking over time. Dismissed workers have the opportunity to choose an outside‐option alternative to labour force participation. Individual uncertainty is assumed in a first phase of transition, while aggregate uncertainty – generating opposition to restructuring – is modelled in a second phase. The model predicts a slowdown in the speed of transition.     

Social Security and Early Retirement: The Relationship Between Workers,Firms and Governments

In this paper we survey a number of theoretical and empirical studies in order to propose explanations to the fall of labour force participation at older age. Starting from the largely studied effect of social security schemes on labour supply, we explore the employers behaviour and the role of governments in the development of early retirement schemes. We show that early retirement is the result of a global agreement between firms and government where workers have incentives to early exit the labour market due to generous non actuarial benefits. Firms have an advantage to separate older workers because they are costly compared to young workers and governments hope that by pushing elderly into early retirement they will solve the massive unemployment problem.     

Health status and labour market outcome: Empirical evidence from Australia

This paper uses eight waves of Australia Household, Income and Labour Dynamics data to study the issues of state dependence and the short‐run and long‐run response to health shocks on the labour market. We consider six alternative panel data binary dependent variable models with different ways of modelling labour market dynamics and individual heterogeneity. We find that the key results with regard to labour market dependence and the impacts of health shocks are sensitive to model specification and pooling of male and female samples with differences as large as sixfold. Specification analysis is conducted and favours the dynamic fixed effects logit model for separate male and female samples. Methods for evaluating dynamic response paths to a one‐time health shock for binary outcomes are also suggested and results are presented.     

Occupational Status: Why do some Workers Miss Out?

The difference in socioeconomic status between the 'haves' and 'have-nots' is widening in the Australian labour market. This is reflected in the data on both earnings and occupational status. This paper assesses the factors contributing to differences in the occupational attainment of workers with a marginal attachment to the labour market and workers who are part of mainstream Australia. Overall, 94 per cent of the occupational status differential is attributable to the inferior endowments possessed by workers with a marginal attachment to the labour market. Until the disadvantaged workers improve their skills they will not be able to gain access to high status occupations.     

Does Raising the Minimum Wage Help the Poor?*

What is the impact of raising the minimum wage on family incomes? Using data from the 1994–1995 to 2002–2003 Survey of Income and Housing, the characteristics of low-wage workers are analysed. Those who earn near-minimum wages are disproportionately female, unmarried and young, without postschool qualifications and overseas born. About one-third of near-minimum-wage workers are the sole worker in their household. Due to low labour force participation rates in the poorest households, minimum-wage workers are most likely to be in middle-income households. Under plausible parameters for the effect of minimum wages on hourly wages and employment, it appears unlikely that raising the minimum wage will significantly lower family income inequality.     

EFFECTS OF HEALTH AND CHRONIC DISEASES ON LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION OF OLDER WORKING‐AGE AUSTRALIANS*

This study examines the effects of general health and chronic diseases on the labour force participation of older working‐age Australians. To account for potential endogeneity of health status, a simultaneous equation model is estimated and chronic diseases are used as instrumental variables. The effects of chronic diseases on labour force participation are assessed indirectly using the parameters estimated from the simultaneous equation model. The results show that both health status and chronic diseases have significant effects on labour force participation. It also appears that the effects of chronic diseases are more accurately estimated from the simultaneous equation model than from a single equation labour force participation model.     

Labour force ageing and productivity performance in Canada

Abstract.  This paper studies the direct impact of labour force ageing on productivity growth in 10 Canadian provinces over the period 1981–2001, with an outlook to 2046. It shows that older workers are, on average, less productive than younger workers and that labour force ageing has a modest negative direct impact on productivity growth in Canada. The impact has increased since the middle of the 1990s, will peak in 2001–11, and tail off afterwards. During the peak period, productivity growth in Canada will be reduced by 0.13 to 0.23 percentage points per year, with Newfoundland being hit the hardest. JEL classification: J21, O47     

Wages in Managed Markets: An Explanation of the Gender Wage Gap?

Over the last decade or so in Australia, relative wages have declined in some female‐dominated occupations, notably in the care industries. This article argues that the strong growth in labour force participation of mature‐aged women has allowed wages to remain low in these ‘managed’ industries. Limited mobility across industries and occupations, at least in part due to preferences for part‐time work, and an institutional wage‐setting mechanism also play a role. Growing demand for workers in the care industries, rising skill levels of women, and slowing growth in participation as rates converge with those of men will contribute to stronger wage growth in the future.     

The effect of increases in the level of unemployement on older workers

This study explores the influence of the level of unemployment on labour force participation and full- versus part-time status, for men and women aged 56 to 60. Comparisons are also made with 16–19- and 31–35-year-old men and women. It is found that when the unemployment increases, discourgement is greater for older men than for younger ones. For Women, Prime-aged workers exhibit less discouragement than either the older or younger women. The study also infers the original labour force status of older discouraged workers. For men, displaced workers come largely from the ranks of full-time workers. For women, both full- and part-time workers are displaced.     

The labour market effects of financial crises

This paper examines how the 2008–2009 financial crisis affected labour markets in Europe, and how this impact depended on employment protection laws. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach, our estimates isolate the effect of the lack of credit on the labour market from that of the general decline in aggregate economic activity. We find large and negative impacts of the credit shock on total employment, particularly on temporary, unskilled and young workers. These impacts were significantly larger in countries with stronger legal protection of permanent workers from dismissal. This suggests that the differential impact of the crisis across countries was not entirely driven by the heterogeneity of the credit shock, but also by labour regulations. Given regulatory inflexibility in adjusting the permanent workforce, firms responded to tightening financial constraints by disproportionately laying off temporary workers (who tend to be younger and less skilled than permanent workers).     

Stick,Carrot and Skill Acquisition*

We evaluate the impact of specially designed youth unemployment programmes (YUPs), intended to provide young unemployed unskilled workers with skills. If unemployment among skilled workers is lower than among unskilled workers, YUPs imply that unemployment falls. However, YUPs potentially crowd out ordinary training. We set up an equilibrium matching model with endogenous skill choice and examine the impact of an increase in programme participation. We derive a condition for crowding out of ordinary training, as well as a condition for an increase in the skilled labour force and thereby reduced unemployment. The impact of YUPs on welfare and wage dispersion is also considered.     

Revisiting the Okun relationship

Our article revisits the Okun relationship between observed unemployment rates and output gaps. We include in the relationship the effect of labour market institutions as well as age and gender effects. Our empirical analysis is based on 20 OECD countries over the period 1985–2013. We find that the share of temporary workers (which includes a high and rising share of young workers) played a crucial role in explaining changes in the Okun coefficient (the impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate) over time. The Okun coefficient is not only different for young, prime-age and older workers but also it decreases with age. From a policy perspective, it follows that an increase in economic growth will not only have the desired outcome of reducing the overall unemployment rate but it will also have the distributional effect of lowering youth unemployment.     

The Effects of Disability on Labour Force Status in Australia

Using the Australian Bureau of Statistics 1998 Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers, this study examines the effects of disability on four labour market outcomes: not in the labour force, unemployed, part‐time employed and full‐time employed. The detailed information on health available in the dataset also facilitates investigation of the dependence of effects on the characteristics of the disability, including severity, impairment type and age of onset. Disability is found to have substantial effects on labour force status, on average acting to decrease the probability of labour force participation by one‐quarter for males and one‐fifth for females. For males, the decrease in fulltime employment accounts for almost all of the decrease in labour force participation associated with disability; for females, disability has negative effects on both full‐time and part‐time employment. Analysis of disability characteristics shows that adverse effects on labour force status are increasing in the severity of the disability and are also worse for those with more than one type of impairment and for those who experience disability onset at older ages. There is evidence that the adverse effects of disability are lower for males who completed their education after the onset of the disability.     

LABOUR‐MARKET ATTACHMENT AND TRAINING PARTICIPATION*

This paper examines how expected attachment to the labour market and expected tenure at a specific firm affect training participation. The results, based on cross‐sectional data from Japan, indicate that expected attachment to the labour market affects participation in both employer‐ and worker‐initiated training, while expected tenure at a specific firm mainly explains participation in employer‐initiated training. These two attachment indices explain more than two‐thirds of the sex gap in training participation. Employers in less‐competitive labour markets are more likely to offer employer‐initiated training to their workers.     

Retirement in Australia: A Closer Look at the Financial Incentives

In Australia, labour force participation among older people has been declining. Previous research has found that in many OECD countries, the retirement income system actually provides a financial incentive for older workers to retire early. In this article, we model the retirement behaviour of Australian men and women aged between 55 and 70 years, where individuals retire in the period that the present value of their lifetime retirement income is maximised. Our findings suggest that the Australian retirement system does provide an incentive to retire early. However, men are much more likely than women to respond to these financial incentives.     

The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour

This paper estimates a life cycle model of labour supply, retirement, and savings behaviour in which future health status and wages are uncertain. Individuals face a fixed cost of work and cannot borrow against future labour, pension, or Social Security income. The method of simulated moments is used to match the life cycle profiles of labour force participation, hours worked, and assets that are estimated from the data to those that are generated by the model. The model establishes that the tax structure of the Social Security system and pensions are key determinants of the high observed job exit rates at ages 62 and 65. Removing the tax wedge embedded in the Social Security earnings test for individuals aged 65 and older would delay job exit by almost one year. By contrast, Social Security benefit levels, health, and borrowing constraints are less important determinants of job exit at older ages. For example, reducing Social Security benefits by 20% would cause workers to delay exit from the labour force by only three months.     

Employment Protection Versus Flexicurity: On Technology Adoption in Unionised Firms*

We analyse how different labour‐market institutions – employment protection versus ‘flexicurity’– affect technology adoption in unionised firms. We consider trade unions’ incentives to oppose or endorse labour‐saving technology and firms’ incentives to invest in such technology. Increased flexicurity – interpreted as less employment protection and a higher reservation wage for workers – unambiguously increases firms’ incentives for technology adoption. If unions have some direct influence on technology, a higher reservation wage also makes unions more willing to accept technological change. Less employment protection has the opposite effect, as this increases the downside (job losses) of labour‐saving technology.     

Evidence of the added-worker and discouraged-worker effects in Australia

Gross flow data for workers moving between the states of employment, unemployment and non-participation in Australia can be used to analyse the likelihood of workers transitioning between the three states in different phases of the business cycle. We use correlation analysis and a SVAR model to determine the cyclicality of state transition rates and use these results to characterise labour force inflows and outflows as being consistent in aggregate with either the discouraged-worker effect (DWE) or the added-worker effect (AWE). We find evidence that the AWE is dominant in transitions in both directions between unemployment and non-participation which contributes to a rise in unemployment during economic contractions. We also find that the DWE is dominant in transitions from non-participation to employment and that this drives the overall result that non-participation rises during a contraction. This means that the overall participation rate is procyclical. It is important to understand the cyclical influences on labour force participation and its interaction with unemployment before framing policy responses which seek to reduce labour market slack.     

MENTAL HEALTH AND LIFE SATISFACTION OF YOUNG AUSTRALIANS: THE ROLE OF FAMILY BACKGROUND*

This paper uses the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey to investigate the factors that influence young Australians’ mental health and life satisfaction, with an emphasis upon the role of family background. It also explores male and female differences concerning those background effects. The results indicate a particularly significant negative association between parental divorce and well‐being, and suggest that the timing of divorce matters. Distinguishing the samples by gender shows that this relationship remains significant only for females. Past living arrangements consistently turn out to be statistically insignificant whether the sample used is the total, males or females. The current living arrangements, however, appear to be significantly associated with both mental health and life satisfaction of males. Adding potentially confounding characteristics to our basic regression, which includes only the family background variables, suggests that some of the ‘aggregate’ effects of family background might work indirectly through the mediating variables such as education or lifestyles, though most of them remain direct. Among those, marital status, education, labour market experience and lifestyles seem to be the major factors explaining the dispersion in well‐being of young Australians. Income and wealth, on the other hand, have only a minor impact.