Chronic and transient poverty: Measurement and estimation, with evidence from China

The paper contributes to the measurement of poverty and vulnerability in three ways. First, it proposes a new approach to separating poverty into chronic and transient components. Second, it provides corrections for the statistical biases introduced when using a small number of periods to estimate the importance of vulnerability and transient poverty. Third, it applies these tools to the measurement of chronic and transient poverty in China using a rich panel data set that extends over 17 years. Alternative measurement techniques are found to yield significantly different estimates of the relative importance of chronic and transient poverty. The precision of the estimates is also considerably enhanced by simple statistical corrections.     

An aspect of variable population poverty comparisons

This paper demonstrates that the property of Replication Invariance, generally considered to be an innocuous requirement for the extension of fixed-population poverty comparisons to variable-population contexts, is incompatible with other plausible variable- and fixed-population axioms. This fact raises questions about what constitutes an appropriate headcount assessment of poverty, in terms of whether one should focus on the proportion, or the absolute numbers, of the population in poverty. This observation, in turn, has important implications for tracking poverty and setting targets for its reduction or elimination.     

Innis Lecture: Equity and equality

Abstract Is horizontal equity (HE) the ‘most widely accepted principle of equity’? Or does it stand in ‘opposition to the advancement of human welfare’? This paper argues that the case for the HE principle is not as straightforward as is usually thought and that it requires advanced notions of justice and well‐being. The most likely ethical basis for HE appears to combine a Rawlsian maximin principle and a view of well‐being that allows for relative local comparison effects. The paper also explores some of the dimensions of equality and well‐being along which the HE principle can be applied and presents a number of examples showing how HE considerations can provide an important input into policy analysis.     

The emerging aversion to inequality

This paper provides evidence of the changing attitudes to inequality during transition to the market in Poland. Using repeated cross-sections of the population, it identifies a structural break in the relationship between income inequality and satisfaction. Whereas in the first stage of the transition process, an increase in income inequality was interpreted by the population as a positive signal of wider opportunities, later in the transition period increased inequality became a factor in dissatisfaction with the country's economic situation. This was accompanied by increasing public sentiment that the process of income distribution is flawed and corrupt.     

Equity-regarding poverty measures: differences in needs and the role of equivalence scales

Abstract .  The paper investigates the definition of equity-regarding poverty measures when there are different household types in the population. It demonstrates the implications of a between-type regressive transfer principle for poverty measures, for the choice of poverty lines, and for the measurement of living standard. The role of equivalence scales, which are popular in empirical work on poverty measurement, is clarified.     

Imputing rent in consumption measures,with an application to consumption poverty in Canada, 1997–2009

We consider two econometric problems in the measurement of poverty, both relating to rent imputation. First, we account for quality differences correlated with selection into owner‐occupied versus rental tenure. This correction increases estimated household consumption by 5% over uncorrected estimates and decreases estimated poverty rates quite dramatically. Second, we propose that measurement error induced by the imputation be corrected by imputing a consumption distribution, rather than a consumption level, for each household. This correction increases estimated poverty rates slightly. We use our methods to measure consumption poverty in Canada, and find that the imputation strategy used influences the patterns observed. For example, measured poverty among the elderly barely declines when one uses our methods, in contrast to the almost 6 percentage point reduction we find using traditional methods. In our assessment of the over‐time evolution of consumption poverty, we find that substantial progress has been made on overall poverty and on child poverty, but that poverty among the elderly hardly changed.     

Filtral preorders and opportunity inequality

We compare profiles of opportunity sets by means of set-inclusion filtral preorders (SIFPs). Some significant results of the classic theory of income inequality are reproduced in the SIFP-framework.     

Poverty growth in Scandinavian countries: A Sen multi-decomposition

We show in this paper that the growth rate of the Sen index is multi-decomposable, that is, decomposable simultaneously by subgroups and income sources. The multi-decomposition of the poverty growth yields respectively: the growth rate of the poverty incidence (poverty rate) decomposed by subgroups, the growth rate of the poverty depth (poverty gap ratios) decomposed by sources and subgroups, and the growth rate of inequality decomposed by sources and subgroups. We demonstrate that the multi-decomposition is not unique. It is mainly dependent on poverty lines defined on the space of income sources. An application to Scandinavian countries shows that poverty lines based on non-correlation between the income sources imply serious risks of underestimation of the contribution levels of the different components of the global poverty growth. The main contribution of our paper is to pay particular attention to the poverty growth and its source components in order to avoid underestimation of poverty growth.     

Education, segregation and marital sorting: theory and an application to the UK

This paper presents a model of the intergenerational transmission of education and marital sorting. Parents matter both because of their household income and because their human capital determines the distribution of a child's disutility from making an effort to become skilled. We show that an increase in segregation has potentially ambiguous effects on the proportion of individuals that become skilled in the steady state, and hence on marital sorting, the personal and household income distribution, and welfare. We calibrate the steady state of our model to UK statistics. We find that an increase in the correlation of spouses in their years of education will bring about a small increase in the proportion of skilled individuals when the relative supply of skilled individuals is variable at the family level and a decrease when this supply is fixed. Ex-ante utility (of an unborn individual) increases in the first case and decreases in the second. The welfare effect of increased sorting is negative for unskilled individuals and positive for skilled individuals. Increased segregation always leads to an increase in welfare inequality between skilled and unskilled individuals.     

Motives for household private transfers in Burkina Faso

Resource transfers among households have received considerable interest among economists in recent years. Two of the main reasons for the surge of interest in household transfers are the information on human nature conveyed by transfer behavior and the implication on income redistribution policy that private transfer might have. Empirical studies, however, provide mixed results on transfer behavior. This is because previous inquiries were confronted with several estimation issues and have focused on data from developed countries where private transfers are already small. This paper contributes to the literature on transfer behavior by using a multifaceted econometric approach to examine the motives of household transfers in Burkina, a low-income country with a well-documented tradition of gift exchanges. The findings suggest that risk sharing is not central to transfers. Altruistic transfers are apparent for the middle income class, but not at low income level. The evidence implies that crowding out may be minimal at low income level, suggesting that public transfers targeting poor households may be effective.     

Testing for bivariate stochastic dominance using inequality restrictions

We propose a test of bivariate stochastic dominance within a generalized framework for testing inequality restrictions, utilizing the covariance structure of the estimates of the joint distribution functions. Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical example assess its usefulness.     

Unequal uncertainties and uncertain inequalities: an axiomatic approach

In this paper, we provide an axiomatic characterization of social welfare functions for uncertain incomes. Our most general result is that a small number of reasonable assumptions regarding welfare orderings under uncertainty rule out pure ex ante as well as pure ex post evaluations. Any social welfare function that satisfies these axioms should lie strictly between the ex ante and the ex post evaluations of income distributions. We also provide an axiomatic characterization of the weighted average of the minimum and the maximum of ex post and ex ante evaluations.     

The application of nonparametric tests to poverty targeting

Many otherwise successful social programs have limited outreach among the very poor. We show how a recently developed nonparametric test can detect this pattern of program participation. We apply the test to data on participation in a microcredit program in India and do find participation increasing in income among the poorest households in the region.     

An experimental study on individual choice, social welfare, and social preferences

We experimentally study subjects’ compliance with dominance relationships of income distributions in a ranking task. The experiment consisted of four different treatments: Lottery, individual choice, social preferences, and social planner. Our results suggest that people's risk attitudes do not adequately reflect their inequality attitudes. Uninvolved social planners exhibit randomization preferences, while self-interested social planners are generally more inequality averse and try to avoid extreme outcomes.     

A TREATMENT OF ABSOLUTE INDICES OF POLARIZATION*

Absolute polarization indices remain unchanged under equal absolute augmentation in all incomes. This paper identifies the class of absolute polarization indices whose orderings of alternative income distributions agree with the rankings generated by nonintersecting absolute polarization curves. We explore the possibility of using the Kolm (1976) – Blackorby‐Donaldson (1980) ethical absolute inequality index in polarization measurement. We establish that although inequality and polarization are dissimilar concepts, different absolute inequality indices can be employed to design alternative absolute polarization indices. A numerical illustration is provided using Indian data and it is shown that inequality and polarization are different issues in income distribution analysis.     

A nice estimation of Gini index and power Pen's parade

Under the assumption that an economic variable y such as income, is a power function of its rank among n individuals, we provide the coefficient of variation and the Gini index as functions of the power degree of the Pen's parade. In fact, knowing the power degree of the Pen's parade function, we obtain the coefficient of variation and a sharp analytical simple way to compute Gini index in terms of the power degree. Reciprocally, knowing, the coefficient of variation of a said variable, we can also provide the power degree of the corresponding Pen's parade, hence deducting its shape. Several examples are given to illustrate our methods. Special attention is given to countries' Gini indices of the World development indicators report 2009 (WDI 2009).     

Normative judgments and spontaneous order: The contractarian element in Hayek's thought

This paper explores the apparent tension between Hayek's moral skepticism and his role as a defender of liberal institutions. It looks at Hayek's concept of spontaneous order, and asks whether there are any grounds for claiming that spontaneous orders have moral value. The argument from group selection is considered but rejected. Hayek is interpreted as putting most weight on arguments which show, for specific orders (such as the market and common law) that their rules assist each individual in the pursuit of his or her ends, whatever those ends may be. It is suggested that this form of argument is contractarian in character. However, Hayek's contractarianism is distinctive in that it looks for agreement among individuals within an ongoing social order, rather than among rational agents who stand outside any particular society. This paper was written while I was a Visiting Scholar at the Social Philosophy and Policy Center, Bowling Green State University; I am very grateful for the Center's support. An early version was presented at the Friedrich August von Hayek Memorial Symposium in Freiburg, in June 1993. In revising the paper, I have benefited from the comments of the participants at that symposium.     

Kidney exchange: An egalitarian mechanism

Kidney exchange programs utilize both deceased-donor and live-donor kidneys. One of these programs, a two-way kidney paired donation (KPD), involves two patients exchanging their live donors? kidneys. Another possibility is a list exchange (LE): a living incompatible donor provides a kidney to a candidate on the deceased-donor waitlist and in return the intended recipient of this donor receives a priority on the waitlist. By taking into consideration the fact that transplants from live donors have a higher chance of success than those from cadavers, we characterize the set of efficient and egalitarian exchanges involving the KPD?s and LE?s.     

Unidimensional and multidimensional fuzzy poverty measures: New approach

the analysis of deprivation is usually seen as a unidimensional condition. However, recently it is considered to be a multidimensional one. A useful tool for such analysis is to view deprivation as a degree providing a quantitative expression to its intensity for individuals. Such fuzzy conceptualisation has been widely adopted in poverty and deprivation research. This paper aims to further develop and refine this strand of research. First, we re-examine two aspects introduced by the use of fuzzy measures, as opposed to conventional poor/non-poor dichotomous measures, namely the choice of membership functions and the rules to manipulate, resulting fuzzy sets. Secondly, we propose fuzzy monetary and non-monetary measures with the membership functions of poor and non-poor. An application based on individual well-being data from Tunisian households in 1990 is presented to illustrate use of one of the proposed concept.