News and correlations of CEEC-3 financial markets

We employ DCC-MGARCH models to investigate conditional correlations between six CEEC-3 financial markets. In general, the highest correlations exist between Hungary and Poland in foreign exchange and stock markets. Short-term money markets are somewhat isolated from each other. We find that the associations of CEEC-3 exchange rates versus euro are weaker than those versus the US dollar. The persistence of the effect of shocks on the time-varying correlations is strongest for foreign exchange and stock markets, indicating a tendency toward contagion. In searching for the origins of financial market volatility in the CEEC-3, we uncover some evidence of Granger-causality on the foreign exchange markets. Finally, using a pool model, we investigate the impact of euro area, US, and CEEC-3 news on the correlations. Apart from ECB monetary policy news, we observe no broad effects of international news on correlations; instead, local news exerts an influence, which suggests a dominance of country- or market-specific circumstances.     

Currency substitution, portfolio diversification, and money demand

Abstract .  We extend the Thomas (1985) dynamic optimizing model of money demand and currency substitution to the case in which the individual has restricted or no access to foreign currency denominated bonds. In this case currency substitution decisions and asset substitution decisions are not separable. The results obtained suggest that the significance of an expected exchange rate depreciation term in the demand for domestic money provides a valid test for the presence of currency substitution. Applying this approach to six Latin-American countries, we find evidence of currency substitution in Colombia, Dominican Republic, and Venezuela, but not in Brazil and Chile.     

Interacting nominal and real labour market rigidities

The note analyses interactions between nominal wage stickiness and costly employment adjustment under rule-based and optimal monetary policy. Policy regimes affect and optimal policy lowers the welfare cost of rigidities. No quantitatively important second-best interaction between both rigidities is found.     

Real exchange rates,asset prices and terms of trade: A theoretical analysis

This paper develops a continuous-time two-country dynamic equilibrium model, in which the real exchange rates, asset prices, and terms of trade are jointly determined in the presence of nontradable goods. The model determines the relation between the financial markets and real goods markets in the world economy and their responses to various shocks under the home bias assumption. A positive domestic supply shock induces a positive return on the domestic asset markets and a deterioration of terms of trade that improves the foreign output and boosts the foreign asset markets. Demand shocks act in the opposite way. This model also analyses the impact of change in the relative price of nontradable to tradable goods on the terms of trade and asset markets. A higher productivity growth in tradable goods than in nontradable goods leads to a higher relative price of nontradable to tradable goods, which appreciates the real exchange rate, deteriorates the terms of trade, and depresses the domestic and foreign asset markets. A lower relative price of nontradable goods depreciates the real exchange rate, improves the terms of trade, and lifts both the domestic and foreign asset markets.     

Aggregation, efficiency and mutual fund separation in incomplete markets

Summary. This paper studies the conditions for aggregation, portfolio separation and effective completeness of competitive allocations in general equilibrium models with incomplete markets where agents have general preference and endowment distributions. We show that these properties are distinct. Demands may aggregate yet may fail to exhibit fund separation and conversely. Fund separation implies effective completeness while aggregation does not. The implications of these properties for the structure of equilibria are discussed, and generalizations of the CAPM, the consumption CAPM and the CAPM with nonmarketed wealth emerge from the analysis. Received: September 12, 1996; revised version: November 7, 1996     

External deficits and non-performing loans in the recent financial crisis

This paper analyses the deterioration of bank credit quality during the recent financial crisis in a cross-national sample. Rapid credit growth in 2000-2005 predicted the relative amount of non-performing loans only if it was combined with a current account deficit.     

International portfolio diversification and endogenous labor supply choice

This paper presents a multi-country general equilibrium model driven by productivity shocks, where labor supply and consumption are chosen endogenously. We use this framework to study the effect of labor supply for optimal international diversification. We find that the model's ability to help explain home-bias depends crucially on the level of substitutability between consumption and non-working time. Quantitatively, the non-separability in the preferences helps in a nonnegligible way, but it cannot entirely explain the extreme degree of home-bias in U.S. portfolios.     

Pareto improving financial innovation in incomplete markets

Summary. In this paper we develop a differential technique for investigating the welfare effects of financial innovation in incomplete markets. Utilizing this technique, and after parametrizing the standard competitive, pure-exchange economy by both endowments and utility functions, we establish the following (weakly) generic property: Let S be the number of states, I be the number of assets and H be the number of households, and consider a particular financial equilibrium. Then, provided that the degree of market incompleteness is sufficiently larger than the extent of household heterogeneity, S−I≥2H−1 [resp. S−I≥H+1], there is an open set of single assets [resp. pairs of assets] whose introduction can make every household better off (and, symmetrically, an open set of single assets [resp. pairs of assets] whose introduction can make them all worse off ). We also devise a very simple nonparametric procedure for reducing extensive household heterogeneity to manageable size, a procedure which not only makes our restrictions on market incompleteness more palatable, but could also prove to be quite useful in other applications involving smooth analysis. Received: August 14, 1995; revised version: April 14, 1997     

The financial trilemma

The financial trilemma states that financial stability, financial integration and national financial policies are incompatible. Any two of the three objectives can be combined but not all three; one has to give. This paper develops a model to underpin the financial trilemma.     

Selected MENA countries' attractiveness to G7 investors

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative attractiveness of seven MENA countries (Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey) as a location for foreign portfolio investment (FPI) from the G7 investors' viewpoints over the period 2001-2005. We suggest a methodology based on the combination of the gravity model, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the goal programming model (GP). The gravity model is used to determine the attractiveness factors of a country with respect to FPI for 30 investing and 43 receiving countries. Results show the importance of information costs and bilateral trade in the determination of the bilateral asset holdings. The AHP method is applied to prioritize the set of FPI location alternatives according to variables' significance in the gravity model outcome; information costs, bilateral trade, GDP, investment freedom, institutional quality, and geographic distance. Results show that in general Saudi Arabia is the best destination for Japanese and US investors, Turkey is the favorite location for French, German, Italian and British investors and Algeria is the preferred country for Canadian investors. A combined AHP-GP model has been used to determine the degree of portfolio investment in each MENA country from the viewpoint of G7 investors. The relative attractiveness of MENA countries varies over time and across investors. In general, over the period 2001-2005, the most attractive country is Iran for Canadian, French and Italian investors, Turkey for German and British investors and Saudi Arabia for Japanese and US investors. For a MENA country to attract more FPI it should especially improve bilateral trade and institutional quality and reduce foreign investment restrictions and information costs.     

The tradeoff between risk sharing and information production in financial markets

The production of information in financial markets is limited by the extent of risk sharing. The wider a stock's investor base, the smaller the risk borne by each shareholder and the less valuable information. A firm which expands its investor base without raising capital affects its information environment through three channels: (i) it induces incumbent shareholders to reduce their research effort as a result of improved risk sharing, (ii) it attracts potentially informed investors, and (iii) it may modify the composition of the base in terms of risk tolerance or liquidity trading. Implications for individual firms and the market as a whole are derived.     

Maturity mismatch and financial crises: Evidence from emerging market corporations

Substantial attention has been paid in recent years to the risk of maturity mismatch in emerging markets. Although this risk is microeconomic in nature, the evidence advanced thus far has taken the form of macro correlations. We evaluate this mechanism empirically at the micro level by using a database of over 3000 publicly listed firms from fifteen emerging markets. We measure the risk of maturity mismatch by estimating, at the firm level, the effect on investment of the interaction of short-term exposure and aggregate capital flight. This effect is (statistically) zero, contrary to the prediction of the maturity-mismatch hypothesis. This conclusion is robust to using a variety of different estimators, alternative measures of capital flows, and controls for devaluation effects and access to international capital. We do find evidence that short-term-exposed firms pay higher financing costs, and have lower equity valuations, but not that this reduction in net worth translates into a drop in investment or sales.     

Revisiting the interest rate–exchange rate nexus: a Markov-switching approach

In this paper the interest rate–exchange rate nexus and the effectiveness of an interest rate defense are investigated empirically. I present a reduced form evidence which characterizes the empirical relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. I use a Markov-switching specification of the nominal exchange rate with time-varying transition probabilities. Empirical evidence from six developing countries: Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Mexico, and Turkey indicates that raising nominal interest rates leads to a higher probability of switching to a crisis regime. Thus, the empirical results presented here may support the view that a high interest rate policy is unable to defend the exchange rate. Unlike other studies which consider linear models only, my findings are robust and consistent over different countries and crisis episodes (Asian 1997 crises, Mexico 1994 crisis, and Turkey 1994, 2001 crises). In order to explain the empirical findings, I construct a simple theoretical model by incorporating an interest rate rule in the model proposed by Jeanne and Rose (2002) [Jeanne, O., Rose, A.K., 2002. Noise trading and exchange rate regimes, Quarterly Journal of Economics. 117 (2) 537–569]. The model has multiple equilibria, and under plausible conditions, higher exchange rate volatility is associated with higher interest rates.     

A general equilibrium open economy model for emerging markets: Monetary policy with a dualistic labor market

An optimizing model of a small open emerging market economy (SOEME) with dualistic labor markets and two types of consumers, delivers a tractable model for monetary policy. Differences between the SOEME and the SOE are derived. Parameters depend on features of the labor market and on consumption inequality, and affect the natural interest rate, terms of trade and potential output. The supply curve turns out to be flatter and more volatile, with a larger number of shift factors, including policy-determined terms of trade. A simple basic version of the model is simulated in order to compare different policy targets in response to a cost shock. Flexible domestic inflation targeting gives the lowest volatility although there are trade-offs. Exchange rate volatility is relatively lower but still makes a major contribution to controlling inflation. Flexible CPI inflation targeting performs better when combined with some kind of managed floating. Inflation targeting has to be flexible. With more backward-looking behavior the policy response to a shock is reduced.     

Endogenous growth, monetary shocks and nominal rigidities

We introduce endogenous growth in a standard NK model with staggered prices and wages. We find that the source of nominal rigidities, the shock persistence and the type of Taylor rule affect the relationship between monetary volatility and growth.     

Structural reforms,fiscal consolidation and external rebalancing in monetary union: A model-based analysis

The paper analyses the impact of structural reforms on external positions in monetary union in a 3-region version of QUEST III. Wage cost moderation and fiscal consolidation improve the current account balance in the medium term, but positive income effects tend to offset the initial increase in the long term. The general pattern is robust across alternative levels of initial foreign indebtedness. While lasting imbalance correction requires a contraction of debt-financed domestic demand, supply-side reform can mitigate the associated output contraction. A scenario is given as illustration that would reverse the 20% competitiveness loss in the EMU periphery during the 2000s and reduce foreign and government debt by 30% and 50% of GDP within ten years.     

A new measure of financial development: Theory leads measurement

This study presents a new measure of financial development that is directly derived from theory. Our measure, the Marginal Utilization of Debt (hereafter, MUD) comes from the seminal work of Myers (1984), Myers and Majluf (1984) and Shyam-Sunder and Myers (1999). Further, it is directly related to the development facts of Gurley and Shaw (1955). MUD is a global measure that reflects conditions in both debt and equity markets. It varies enormously across nations; from 0.23 in Australia at one extreme to 0.96 in Turkey at the other. Cross‐country variations in MUD are not random; they are related to special‐purpose measures of debt and equity market advancement from the financial development literature. Richer, more advanced nations have smaller average MUDs. We argue that the MUD may be useful for a variety of purposes and provide three example applications.     

Asset prices,nominal rigidities,and monetary policy

Should monetary policy respond to asset prices? This paper analyzes this question from the vantage point of equilibrium determinacy. A central bank responding to asset prices is indirectly responding to firm profits. In a model with sticky prices, increases in inflation tend to lower firm profits so that a central bank responding to share prices implicitly weakens its overall response to inflation. This is the novel source of equilibrium indeterminacy highlighted in the paper.     

Imperfect financial integration and asymmetric information: competing explanations of the home bias puzzle?

Abstract This paper shows that imperfect financial integration and informational asymmetries are not competing theories but rather complementary ideas to a single explanation of the home bias puzzle. We develop a rational expectations model of asset prices with investors that face informational constraints and find that informational advantages arise endogenously as a response to small financial frictions. We also present empirical evidence that (i) international financial frictions are correlated to observed patterns of US investors’ attention and that (ii) the attention US investors allocate to foreign stocks helps explain home bias towards those countries, even after controlling for financial integration levels.