An intensity model for credit risk with switching Lévy processes

We develop a switching regime version of the intensity model for credit risk pricing. The default event is specified by a Poisson process whose intensity is modeled by a switching Lévy process. This model presents several interesting features. First, as Lévy processes encompass numerous jump processes, our model can duplicate the sudden jumps observed in credit spreads. Also, due to the presence of jumps, probabilities do not vanish at very short maturities, contrary to models based on Brownian dynamics. Furthermore, as the parameters of the Lévy process are modulated by a hidden Markov chain, our approach is well suited to model changes of volatility trends in credit spreads, related to modifications of unobservable economic factors.     

Sneaking in the back door? An evaluation of reverse mergers and IPOs

I examine whether the financial reporting quality of firms that access capital markets through reverse mergers differs from that of firms that rely on the traditional and more onerous IPO process. Using a broad sample of reverse merger firms and a propensity-score matched sample of IPOs, I find that reverse merger firms exhibit lower earnings quality as measured by several earnings attributes established in prior literature: accrual quality, earnings persistence, earnings predictability, cash persistence, cash predictability, earnings smoothness, timeliness, and value relevance. I document similar results for firms with low levels of institutional ownership. Differences in earnings quality, however, are attenuated for reverse merger firms with higher levels of institutional ownership. Given recent U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement actions against Chinese reverse merger firms, I also use a difference-in-differences technique and find that the lower financial reporting of reverse merger firms is actually driven by the non-Chinese reverse merger firms.     

An accounting revolution? The financialisation of standard setting

This paper analyses the political-economic content of the recent ‘revolutionary’ shift in financial accounting rules for listed companies, specifically the rise of IFRS and fair value. It connects this shift to the socio-economic changes that are currently being discussed in the literature on financialisation, e.g. the rise of shareholder value and the proprietary view of the firm. Two ideal-typical accounting systems are constructed on the basis of normative accounting theory and extant standards – historical cost accounting (HCA) and fair value accounting (FVA). The ‘accounting revolution’ of the past 10–15 years can be understood as a qualitative shift from HCA to FVA. It is further argued that these ideal-typical systems are related to different circuits or forms of capital – productive and money capital respectively – and to the particular perspective that these afford on the, capitalist firm. Inasmuch as financialisation is related to the circuit of money capital one can make sense of the rise to prominence of FVA, which represents the dominance of a financial view of the firm in the field of financial accounting. Throughout this paper, however, the limits to financialisation are also highlighted and traced back to the ineradicable manifestation of the circuit of productive capital.     

The volatility-confined LPPL model: A consistent model of ‘explosive’ financial bubbles with mean-reverting residuals

Using the concept of the stochastic discount factor with critical behavior, we present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors' beliefs and sentiments. The conditional expected returns exhibit faster-than-exponential acceleration decorated by accelerating oscillations, called “log-periodic power law” (LPPL). Tests on residuals show a remarkable, low rate (0.2%) of false positives when applied to a GARCH benchmark. When tested on the S&P500 US index from Jan. 3, 1950 to Nov. 21, 2008, the model correctly identifies the bubbles ending in Oct. 1987, in Oct. 1997, and in Aug. 1998 and the ITC bubble ending on the first quarter of 2000. Different unit-root tests confirm the high relevance of the model specification. Our model also provides a diagnostic for the duration of bubbles: applied to the period before the Oct. 1987 crash, there is clear evidence that the bubble started at least 4 years earlier. We confirm the validity and universality of the volatility-confined LPPL model on seven other major bubbles that have occurred in the World in the last two decades. Using Bayesian inference, we find a very strong statistical preference for our model compared with a standard benchmark, in contradiction with Chang and Feigenbaum (2006) which used a unit-root model for residuals.     

Does model complexity improve pricing accuracy? The case of CoCos

Review of Derivatives Research - In this study, we analyze whether model complexity improves accuracy of CoCo pricing models. We compare the out-of-sample pricing ability of four models using a...     

The Tourinho model: neglected nugget or a receding relic?

This article evaluates Tourinho's (1979b Tourinho, O. A.F. 1979b. “The valuation of reserves of natural resources: an option pricing approach”. Berkeley: University of California. PhD thesis [Google Scholar]) work as one of the earliest contributors to the real options literature. His model pioneered the application of risk neutrality to uncertain investments, but his originality of introducing an option-holding cost albeit to overcome the extraction paradox is rarely imitated. We claim that the combination of a convenience yield and an option-holding cost produces a more satisfying representation. Moreover, variations in the holding cost give rise to a host of investment decisions ranging from the standard real option solution for a zero-holding cost to a net present value solution for an infinite-holding cost. Not only does the holding cost mediate between these two poles, but it provides the option seller (usually a landowner or a government) with a policy instrument for influencing the extraction timing and thus the extraction profit of the option buyer. We derive the holding cost that optimizes the landowner's combined value of the option premium, holding costs and eventual royalties.     

Household portfolio optimization with XTFs? An empirical study using the SHS-base

XTFs are plain-vanilla Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) which replicate a broad, internationally diversified market index. We question, if XTFs can optimize the performance of households’ portfolios when taking multiple relevant asset classes into account, not only stocks. As opposed to most existing studies, we apply representative household portfolio data to estimate households’ portfolios. Households’ portfolios in our sample show similar compositions and can be grouped into one of three stylized portfolio compositions which exhibit asset class concentrations on cash/savings, mutual funds and individual stocks. For each stylized portfolio, we first investigate if an easily investable 60/40 stock/bond XTF portfolio which is risk-adjusted (including (de-)leverage costs) to the risk of the stylized portfolios, achieves higher returns than the stylized portfolios. This is the case for all stylized portfolios, even those with concentrations on cash/savings or mutual funds. Second, we examine risk/return-changes when replacing the entire risky assets of the stylized portfolios with the 60/40 stock/bond XTF portfolio including transaction costs. This leads to return enhancements in all stylized portfolios and particularly in the portfolio with high stock concentrations to risk reductions. Overall, we find that XTFs are generally suitable to optimize the performance of households’ portfolios under consideration of multiple relevant asset classes.     

The Reform of UK Universities: A Management Dream,An Academic Nightmare?

This paper studies the impact on universities of operating in a new public management (NPM) world by examining UK experiences, in general, and the specific cases of two UK universities. As institutions with high levels of human capital and articulate professionals, universities offer a complex setting in which to study the tensions between professions and managerialism. This study identifies the importance of accounting and calculative practices in the contemporary university and distinct professional reactions fostered by intense NPM experiences prompted by the 2010 UK Government's austerity program.     

The blindfold witness? An accountant's response to slavery and atrocity in the Devil's Paradise

This study discusses the case of a professional accountant who was alleged to have been wilfully blind to the enslavement and barbaric treatment of indigenous peoples in the Peruvian Amazon during the early twentieth century. Ideological positioning and the prospect of personal advancement are discussed as possible motives for such blindness. The practitioner in question claimed ignorance of the abuses in his midst. He contended that his responsibilities as an accountant did not extend to investigating the condition of labour and that the brutal treatment of indigenous peoples in the upper reaches of the supply chain was deliberately hidden from his view by the client company. The findings have implications for current day discourses about the role of accountants and auditors in detecting and addressing modern slavery.     

An elusive panacea? The impact of the regulatory valuation regime on insurers' investment behaviour

This paper develops a framework to examine how the interactions between the valuation regime and solvency requirements influence investment behaviour of long-term investors with stable liabilities, such as life insurers. The results contribute to the debate over market-based valuation regimes, and shed light on new hybrid regimes explored in policy circles. We show that solvency requirements based on fair value regime can induce procyclical asset sales, but those based on historical cost valuation encourage insurers to engage in risk-shifting to the detriment of policyholders. A hybrid valuation regime, intended to address these unfavourable outcomes, does not strictly dominate the other two regimes on its own. However, market-based regimes can be made effective, if regulators calibrate their responses to solvency breaches using supervisory information about insurers' asset quality.     

The U.S. small business bankruptcy amendments: A global model for reform?

On February 19, 2020, the Small Business Reorganization Act of 2019 went into effect in the United States. This statute was intended to make the rescue regime of Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code more effective for smaller businesses that would not otherwise have the financial wherewithal to complete a traditional Chapter 11 reorganization. This article describes the central innovations of the new statute, and considers whether they might be adaptable by other countries.     

The Right Time For The Financial Cooperation——An Interview with Jiang Jianqing, President of ICBC, on His Return From Africa

China and Africa are important strategic partners to each other. In the background of the global financial crisis, this relationship is deepening, economic and trade cooperations     

Why are convertible bond announcements associated with increasingly negative issuer stock returns? An arbitrage-based explanation

While convertible offerings announced between 1984 and 1999 induce average abnormal stock returns of −1.69%, convertible announcement effects over the period 2000–2008 are more than twice as negative (−4.59%). We hypothesize that this evolution is attributable to a shift in the convertible bond investor base from long-only investors towards convertible arbitrage funds. These funds buy convertibles and short the underlying stocks, causing downward price pressure. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that the differences in announcement returns between the Traditional Investor period (1984–1999) and the Arbitrage period (2000–September 2008) disappear when controlling for arbitrage-induced short selling associated with a range of hedging strategies. Post-issuance stock returns are also in line with the arbitrage explanation. Average announcement effects of convertibles issued during the Global Financial Crisis are even more negative (−9.12%), due to a combination of short-selling price pressure and issuer, issue, and macroeconomic characteristics associated with these offerings.     

Apple's changing business model: What should the world's richest company do with all those profits?

Apple Inc. stands out as the world's most famous, and currently richest, company. To the general public, Apple is known for three things: its intriguing CEO Steve Jobs, who has achieved iconic status in death as in life; its amazing iOS products, especially the iPhone and the iPad, and their predecessor the iPod, which have literally placed sophisticated technology in the hands of the masses; and its stratospheric stock price, which even when in March 2013 it had dropped to 63 percent of its September 2012 peak, gave Apple the highest market capitalization of any company in the world. As a result of its phenomenal success, at the end of fiscal 2012 Apple had $121 billion in liquid assets. In April 2013 the company committed to distributing as much as $100 billion to shareholders in stock buybacks and cash dividends by the end of calendar 2015. By employing the theory of innovative enterprise to analyze how over the course of its 37-year history Apple became so profitable, we argue that there is no economic justification from a risk-reward perspective for this distribution to Apple's shareholders. Taxpayers and workers have superior claims on these profits. In analyzing by whom value is created as a basis for considering for whom value should be extracted, we raise the implications of Apple's changing business model for the future of innovation at this heretofore exceptional American company and even in the U.S. economy as a whole.     

The business against case revolution. An interview with Nestlé's Peter Brabeck. Interview by Sue Wetlaufer

One of the world's most enduring companies, Nestle epitomizes everything that today's high-flying, headline-grabbing companies are not. It respects technology but doesn't consider it central to strategy. It values growth but prefers it controlled. It seeks talented professionals but wants only those who are modest in word and deed. Nestle CEO Peter Brabeck is skeptical of the relentless push for radical transformation heard from every quarter. He believes, instead, in continuous improvement through slow and steady change. Big, dramatic change is fine for a crisis, Brabeck says, but not every company is in crisis all the time. Many companies are like Nestle--performing well, growing and innovating, without frenzy, without bloodshed. While he acknowledges that every company must change in order to compete in today's turbulent marketplace, Brabeck makes the focus of his work identifying and strengthening those aspects of Nestle that should stay the same. For example, Nestle eschews the noise and energy swirling around technology. Many companies make technology the focal point of strategy, Brabeck says, but Nestle is about people, products, and brands. The company uses technology to create better products but keeps it in its right place--the background. Brabeck also talks candidly about how to fight complacency in a successful company, how to institutionalize collaboration in a decentralized organization, and how to resist pressure from analysts and money managers and focus on long-term, sustainable and profitable growth--in short, how to win the war without the revolution.     

Doing more with less: productivity or starvation? The Intellectual Asset Health Check

The recent wave of savings in public service expenditure comes at the risk of creating starved workplaces, depleted of intellectual assets. This paper examines the perils of starved workplaces and how to avoid them. Organizations that nurture their intellectual assets were found to outperform their peers with 13.3% higher productivity. These organizations created a ‘win–win situation’, achieving both productivity targets while sustaining high stocks of emotional and human capital.     

Can clients of economically dependent auditors benefit from voluntary audit firm rotation? An experiment with lenders

This study utilizes a nationwide random selection of 111 lenders in a 2?×?2 between-subjects experiment to determine whether the level of an auditor's economic dependence on a client and type of auditor rotation affect lenders’ independence and reliability perceptions and decisions to lend money to a potential borrower. Previous literature shows that financial statement users use client importance as a measure of audit quality when revenue streams are not equal across clients. This can negatively affect perceptions of independence and financial statement reliability. As United States regulators look for ways to improve audit quality under the current partner rotation mandate, this study explores whether an audited entity that voluntarily adopts a policy of firm rotation can mitigate the negative effects of the auditor's dependence on the client. Findings suggest that lenders view clients of economically dependent auditors (CEDA) as less independent from its auditor and perceive its financials as less reliable than clients without a dependent auditor (non-CEDA). Lenders are less likely to grant a loan to CEDA. However, under firm rotation, there is not only an increase in lenders’ perceptions of reliability of CEDA financials, but also no difference in perceptions of reliability of CEDA and non-CEDA financials.