Does self-fulfilment of the inflation expectation exist?

This study examines the causal relationship between the actual and expected inflation in the U.S., using the bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and sub-sample rolling-window estimation test to illustrate the self-fulfilment of inflation expectations. The full-sample result indicates that there is a bidirectional causality between the actual and expected inflation, showing the possibility of self-fulfilment of inflation expectations which illustrates that inflation is driven by inflation expectation. However, considering structural changes in two series, we find that the short-run causal nexus between the actual and expected inflation using full-sample data are fraudulent. By adopting a time-varying rolling-window approach to revisiting the dynamic causal relationships, this article identifies that the actual inflation has both positive and negative impacts on the expected inflation in distinct sub-periods. Nevertheless, inflation expectation exerts only negative effects on the actual inflation. The results point out that the self-fulfilment of inflation expectations does not exist. Given the bidirectional nexus between the actual and expected inflation, keeping a low and stable inflation is critical to price stability and anchoring of inflation expectation.     

On the impact of inflation on output growth: Does the level of inflation matter?

This paper investigates the growth effects of inflation on a wide sample of countries, including both industrialized and emerging economies. Relying upon the estimation of smooth transition and dynamic GMM models for panel data, our findings offer strong evidence that inflation non-linearly impacts economic growth. More specifically, there exists a threshold beyond which inflation exerts a negative effect on growth, and below which it is growth enhancing for advanced countries.     

Canadian economic growth: random walk or just a walk?

This paper analyses the role of shocks in Canadian economic growth since 1870. It uses a nonparametric technique to evaluate the degree of presistence of an innnovation in long-run GNP. It is found that a one percent shock to Canadian GNP changes the long-run forecast of this variable by appproximately the same amount, which is characteristic of a random walk process. It is also shown that in important periods of Canadian economic growth its GNP evolved as a random walk with constant drift. With the exception of the period 1929–42, no evidence of business cycles is found. These results lead to the conclusion that movements and oscillations in the GNP of Canada since 1870 have been primarily driven by the accumulation of shocks rather than by cyclical movements.     

Remittances and output growth volatility in developing countries: Does financial development dampen or magnify the effects?

The paper empirically investigated the relationship between remittance flows and output growth volatility for an extensive sample predominated by emerging     

Does the Canadian economy suffer from Dutch disease?

We argue that the failure to disentangle the evolution of the Canadian currency from the U.S. currency leads to potentially incorrect conclusions regarding the case of Dutch disease in Canada. We propose a new approach that is aimed at extracting both currency components and energy- and commodity-price components from observed exchange rates and prices. We first analyze the separate influence of commodity prices on the Canadian and the U.S. currency components. We then estimate the separate impact of the two currency components on the shares of manufacturing employment in Canada. We show that between 33 and 39 per cent of the manufacturing employment loss that was due to exchange rate developments between 2002 and 2007 is related to the Dutch disease phenomenon. The remaining proportion of the employment loss can be ascribed to the weakness of the U.S.     

Does output have a unit root? New international evidence

In this paper unit-root tests for per capita output of 12 OECD countries are performed. Using traditional unit-root tests, it follows that the unit-root hypothesis cannot be rejected except for the US. However, following the approach of Perron (1989), which takes shifts in mean and/or trend into account, the null hypothesis of a unit-root can be rejected in most countries in our sample. In contrast to Perron, a method suggested by Christiano (1992)is used to determine the break date endogenously.     

Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization

The study develops an index of globalization covering its three main dimensions: economic integration, social integration, and political integration. Using panel data for 123 countries in 1970–2000 it is analysed empirically whether the overall index of globalization as well as sub-indexes constructed to measure the single dimensions affect economic growth. As the results show, globalization indeed promotes growth. The dimensions most robustly related with growth refer to actual economic flows and restrictions in developed countries. Although less robustly, information flows also promote growth whereas political integration has no effect.     

Does a multi-sectoral design improve indicator-based forecasts of the GDP growth rate? Evidence from Switzerland

This article presents a multi-sectoral composite indicator for the Swiss GDP growth rate, targeting a lead of two quarters. The in-sample period ranges from 1991 to 2002 and 14 data points are reserved as out of sample to assess the forecasting performance. The results appear promising, in terms of both phase and amplitude. Comparisons with two other uni-sectoral composite leading indicators for the same reference series–the traditional KOF (Konjunkturforschungsstelle) barometer as published until March 2006 and a uni-sectoral composite indicator computed from the same indicators as the multi-sectoral instrument–show that the new approach is superior to the alternatives, which is due to both its broader information basis as well as to the structure that is imposed by the multi-sectoral design. Yet, there are pronounced differences regarding the accuracy of the sectoral forecasts, so that there is scope for improvement.     

Is the shadow economy a bane or boon for economic growth?

This paper uses the theoretical framework developed by Feder (1983) and Ram (1986) to examine interactions (i.e. externalities and intersectoral factor productivity differentials) between the official and unofficial sectors of the economy. Results from the empirical analysis, using data on over 100 countries from 1970 to 2008, suggest that the marginal externality effect of growth in the unofficial sector on the official sector is positive. Further, input productivities are higher in the unofficial sector relative to the official sector. These results are robust using alternate measures of the (unobserved) unofficial economy and across level of development.     

Does human capital or physical capital constrain output in Japanese prefectures?

This paper develops a dynamic–network DEA (data envelopment analysis) model where total output is jointly produced from two sectors: a human capital sector and a physical capital sector. Each prefecture produces a final output and an intermediate product which is used to augment future physical capital. The optimization method allows future production possibilities to be enhanced if some final output in the current period is foregone so that larger amounts of the intermediate product can be produced. The goal is to choose the amounts of final output and intermediate product so as to maximize the size of the production possibility set. The method also allows identification of whether output is constrained by a lack of physical capital, a lack of human capital or a lack of both types of capital. We apply our method to 47 Japanese prefectures during the period 2007–2009. A key finding is that a lack of human capital is constraining potential output.     

Does democracy facilitate economic growth or does economic growth facilitate democracy? An empirical study of Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines the relationship between democracy and economic growth in 30 Sub-Saharan African countries. As our proxy for democracy we first use the democracy index constructed by Freedom House and then check the sensitivity of our findings using, as an alternative proxy for democracy, the Legislative Index of Electoral Competitiveness (LIEC). We find support for the Lipset hypothesis - in the long run, real GDP Granger causes democracy and an increase in GDP results in an improvement in democracy - in Botswana and Niger with both datasets, for Chad with the Freedom House data only and for Cote d'Ivoire and Gabon with the LIEC data only. Support for the compatibility hypothesis - in the long run democracy Granger causes real income and an increase in democracy has a positive effect on real income - is found for Botswana with the Freedom House data and for Madagascar, Rwanda, South Africa and Swaziland with the LIEC data. Support for the conflict hypothesis - in the long run democracy Granger causes real income and an increase in democracy has a negative effect on real income - is found for Gabon with the Freedom House data and Sierra Leone with the LIEC data.     

Can M&A activities act as a predictor of the performance of economic growth or stock prices?

One of the important issues with regard to the relationship between M&As (mergers and acquisitions) and economic growth or stock prices is whether such activities can act as a predictor of these two variables' performance, or whether these variables have resulted in significant impacts on M&A activities. The aim of this paper is to use the method proposed in Kónya (2006) to carry out a causality test among M&A activities, economic growth and stock prices, because the causal relationships that may be uncovered by this would be meaningful for both policymakers and stockholders. This paper uses quarterly data from six OECD countries for the period from April 1980 to March 2010. The bootstrap panel Granger causality test that this work applies also considers cross-sectional dependency and slope heterogeneity simultaneously. The findings of the paper are as follows. There is significant, one-way causality from stock prices to M&A activities, and thus changes in stock prices lead M&A activities. With real GDP as the control variable, for all the countries surveyed, except Australia, stock prices lead M&A activities. As for the impact that economic growth has on M&A activities, we conclude that, when using stock prices as the control variable, there is almost no lead-lag relationship between economic growth and M&A activities, except for in Japan.     

Does economic growth benefit the poor? The role of institutions and religions

This paper seeks to explain the difference across countries of the impact of national growth on the growth of the income of the poor. Traditionally, studies attempting to explain such differences investigate only the impact of some additional variables on the income level of the poor. Here, we introduce interaction terms to explain the change in the elasticity of income of the poor to national income. We focus on the role of formal and informal institutions and religions; variables which have rarely been considered in this context. The results show that only formal institutions (i.e., Resistance to corruption) and, to some extent, informal institutions (i.e., Trust all) explain the differences. Religion has no impact. The findings also show that improvements in the Resistance to corruption benefits the extremely poor more than the poor.     

Do remittances dampen the effect of natural disasters on output growth volatility in developing countries?

This article examines whether or not remittance inflows help mitigate the effects of natural disasters on the volatility of the real output per capita growth rate. Using a large sample of developing countries and mobilizing a dynamic panel data framework, it uncovers a diminishing macroeconomic destabilizing consequence of natural disasters as remittance inflows rise. It appears that the effect of natural disasters disappears for a remittance ratio above 8% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, remittances aggravate the destabilizing effects of natural disasters when they exceed 17% of the GDP. Finally, the article shows that current and lagged remittance inflows significantly reduce the number of people killed by natural disasters and the number of people affected, respectively.     

Basic conditions study to accelerate the realization of transformation of Shaanxi＇s economy growth mode

It is an urgent and important economic work in the moment and the next period for China to realize the transformation of economic growth mode. Relatively, there must be certain basic conditions. This article makes elaboration of the basic conditions, which accelerate the change of Shaanxi＇s economic growth mode from government angle, and proposes countermeasures for it, according to Shaanxi＇s situation and the requirement of scientific development concept, in order to provide basis for the government＇s economic growth transformation.     

Does the version of the Penn World Tables matter? An analysis of the relationship between growth and volatility

Abstract .  The Penn World Tables (PWT) are an important data source for cross-country comparisons in economics. The PWT have undergone several revisions over time. This paper documents how countries' output growth rates change across four publicly available versions of the PWT. We show that for some countries the magnitude of the differences is significant and/or the sign of the growth rates changes across versions. Using as an example Ramey and Ramey (1995) , who found growth volatility has a significant negative effect on growth, we demonstrate that conclusions based on one version of the PWT may not hold under another version.     

Too much of a good thing? On the growth effects of the EU's regional policy

The European Union (EU) provides grants to disadvantaged regions of member states from two pools, the Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund. The main goal of the associated transfers is to facilitate convergence of poor regions (in terms of per-capita income) to the EU average. We use data at the NUTS3 level from the last two EU budgetary periods (1994–1999 and 2000–2006) and generalized propensity score estimation to analyze to which extent the goal of fostering growth in the target regions was achieved with the funds provided and whether or not more transfers generated stronger growth effects. We find that, overall, EU transfers enable faster growth in the recipient regions as intended, but we estimate that in 36% of the recipient regions the transfer intensity exceeds the aggregate efficiency maximizing level and in 18% of the regions a reduction of transfers would not even reduce their growth. We conclude that some reallocation of the funds across target regions would lead to higher aggregate growth in the EU and could generate even faster convergence than the current scheme does.     

Does the introduction of stock exchange markets boost economic growth in African countries?

We assess whether the introduction of private equity capital markets affects economic growth in African countries. We address this issue by focussing on stock exchange markets as the predominant type of new equity markets, using a Diff-in-Diff regression method. The analysis uses a panel data set from 48 Sub-Saharan countries over the time range of 1970–2018. 23 countries are part of the “treated” group – which introduced international stock exchanges – and 25 “untreated” countries serve as the control group. Our results show that when compared with the time period prior to the introduction of stock exchange markets, GDP per capita rises by the amount of 532 US$ (around 40% of the Sub-Saharan average) after the introduction of equity capital markets in the treated countries. Over the ten years post introduction, the effect is hump-shaped, with effects becoming statistically significant from the first year after implementation, with a peak in the 5th year, and it then becomes statistically insignificant from then onwards.     

Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change

The relationship between stock market and economic growth is tested for Portugal (1993–2011), which is a small open economy dependent on bank financing. The relationship between economic growth and bank financing is also appraised. Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling, Granger causality, variance decomposition and impulse response function are discussed. The physical replacement of the currency, as a consequence of the integration in the European Monetary Union, proves to be an economic regime change. The effect of the subprime crisis was also proved. There is evidence of Granger bidirectional causality between the stock market and economic growth. Meanwhile, there was no evidence of causality running from bank financing to economic growth.     

Does it matter if growth is imported via terms of trade or trade volume increases?

This paper shows that to import growth via terms of trade or trade volume increases does matter when determining the degree of competition in the export sector that allows an economy to fully exploit its export market power.