An approach to the construction of indexes of technological change and of technological sophistication : The case of agricultural tractors

Two indicators of the output of technological innovation have been developed for the case of agricultural tractors. The tractor is a multicharacteristic product, and a fundamental problem in measuring its technological sophistication or technological change is to determine the relative weights of different characteristics. These relative weights have been approximated by the coefficients of a regression of tractor price with respect to tractor technical characteristics. The indicators developed allow one to measure technical change over time or the relative technical sophistication of different tractor models or tractor firms at a given moment. These indicators can be applied only to multicharacteristic products with easily quantifiable characteristics. However, products that satisfy these requirements account for a very large share of the market for industrial goods. These indicators can be useful in assessing the efficiency of R&D, in analyzing the influence of technological innovation on patterns of trade, and in determining the contribution of changes in the quality of capital goods employed to increases in industrial productivity.     

MEASUREMENT OF TOTAL FACTOR INPUT, TECHNICAL CHANGE AND OUTPUT BY INDUSTRY IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY 1958–1968

This paper deals with some results of an extended investigation which was carried out by the German Institute of Economic Research, Berlin, and the Ifo-Institute, Munich, and financed by the Stiftung Volkswagenwerk. For 29 sectors of manufacturing Cobb-Douglas production functions have been calculated, based on quarterly figures 1958–1968 of value added, input of hours worked, input of utilized capital stock (net of scrappage), and of potential value added, potential labor input and total capital stock. The income distribution is used as production elasticities. For each of the 29 sectors 12 time series of quarterly indices of total factor input and technical change have been computed, using utilized data (variation 1-6) and capacity data (variation 7-12). Two different time series of α are used, taking quarterly interpolated data (variation 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11) and the geometric mean 1958–1968 (variation 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12). Moreover three different parameters of homogeneity are introduced, taking r= 1 (variation 1, 2, 7, 8), r= 1.1 (variation 3, 4, 9, 10) and r= 1.25 (variation 5, 6, 11, 12). Seven of the 29 sectors show a very high sensitivity of the rate of technical change due to the assumed r, six sectors a rather high sensitivity. Ten of the 29 sectors show a rather small sensitivity of technical change due to the assumed r, six sectors a very small or even negative sensitivity, i.e. an increasing r creates an increasing technical change. These results can be explained by taking account of the fact that total factor input in many branches increased very slowly or even decreased (labor input alone decreased in nearly all branches). A hierarchy of technical change has been calculated; this hierarchy is difficult to explain, because fast growing industries as well as industries with a small or a negative growth rate of output rank in both the leading and the last group of technical change. Very high rates of output result in high rates of technical change (chemicals, mineral oil refining, plastics manufactures), but some industries with a rather small growth of output (shipbuilding, fine ceramics, steel drawing, and cold rolling mills) show a high rate of technical change too.     

Biased Technical Change and Parallel Neutrality

The Luenberger productivity indicator has many attractive features to evaluate productivity, technical and efficiency changes. Paralleling Färe et al. (1997), this paper shows that the technical change indicator can be expressed as the sum of a magnitude indicator and a bias indicator that is the sum of two bias indicators input and output oriented respectively. Using a recent concept of ``parallel neutrality'' introduced by Briec et al. (2006), some conditions under which each bias indicator makes no contribution to productivity change are established. Among the key contributions of this paper is a new linear programming model involving a graph translation homotheticity property.     

Long-run technical change and multifactor productivity growth in US manufacturing

This study utilizes a translog cost function to produce econometric estimates of the separate influences of technical change versus scale efficiency in contributing to multifactor productivity growth within the US manufacturing sector. The analysis generates (two-digit) industry-specific parameters that capture the effects of output versus time-related shifts in the cost function over the 1949–1991 period. Thus initial evidence concerning the relative importance of technical progress (versus ‘scale’) cannot be provided as a source of productivity gains within two-digit industries. The parametric estimates of total factor productivity growth are compared with existing Divisia measures to explore the shortcomings of the growth accounting technique. These long-run patterns hold implications for the productivity convergence hypothesis traced to knowledge spillovers between industries.     

Dynamic and endogenous change of input–output structure with specific layers of technology

There are obvious gaps between long-term change in economic structure and its principal driving force—technological progress. History has shown the influence of technological progress on the economy and current insights in technological development can almost predict the technological waves of the next 50 years, but their potential impact on the economy has not yet been assessed. In this paper, we aim to simulate the evolution of economic structure as represented by input–output structure under specific technological change. A new version of a dynamic input–output model is developed in which both technological progress and deployment are endogenous. Investment in R&D drives the development of new technologies, installation of capital stock brings new technical processes into sector production, new and old technical processes within a sector exchange their relative weights in production as they are phased in or out, and sectors evolve or transform over time. Scenario analysis using this model applied to the Chinese electric power industry shows that the phasing-in of non-fossil energy technology will greatly change the structure of both the sector and the economy over the next 100 years.     

Public Sector Capital and the Production Efficiency of U.S. Regional Manufacturing Industries

This paper applies a stochastic frontier production model with time-varying technical efficiency to investigate the relationship between public capital and technical efficiency. It is based on the proposition that public capital has an effect on actual output by enhancing technical efficiency, thereby reducing the gap between maximum potential output and actual output. Empirical results using panel data from U.S. state manufacturing industries during 1969–86 show that technical efficiencies varied substantially, both between states and between years; variations in technical efficiency are significantly explained by variations in public-sector capital.
JEL Classification Numbers: O20, H54, C23.     

GROWTH OF SECTOR REAL PRODUCT*

This paper is concerned with the influence of different estimation procedures on the data for real output by industry group of a number of O.E.C.D. countries. The authors have examined the methods and indicators used in preparing sector real output data and have tried to assess the effect of the different methods on the recorded changes of sector real output. The data for real output, employment and productivity are compared for the different sectors and countries. The comparison between sectors lays particular emphasis on the dichotomy between the services and non-service sectors of the economy. In this comparison as well as in inter-country comparison it is seen that the data are influenced to a considerable extent by different methods. The survey of estimation methods also shows the incidence of use of double deflation techniques and other methods in the different countries, and the extent to which quality change, output specification and valuation problems are reflected in the different methods.     

Technological progress and scientific indicators: a panel data analysis

Total factor productivity (TFP) is generally interpreted to be a proxy for technological advancement. In this paper, we use stochastic frontier analysis to decompose the growth in TFP into three components: technological progress, scale effect and change in technical efficiency. Then, we conduct a comprehensive panel data analysis using the technological progress component of the TFP growth and several scientific and technological indicators using data from 160 countries over the period from 1960 to 2009. Our results generally show that the technological progress component of the TFP growth properly reflects certain dimensions of actual scientific and technological progress. However, we also find that this result is somewhat sensitive to different econometric specifications and assumptions.     

Do all countries grow alike?

This paper investigates the driving forces of output change in 77 countries during the period 1970–2000. A flexible modeling strategy is adopted that accounts for (i) the inefficient use of resources, and (ii) different production technologies across countries. The proposed model can identify technical, efficiency, and input change for each of three endogenously determined regimes. Membership in these regimes is estimated, rather than determined ex ante. This framework enables explorations into the determinants of output growth and convergence issues in each regime.     

Returns to scale: concept,estimation and analysis of Japan's turbulent 1964–88 economy

Abstract There is policy interest in factoring productivity growth into technical progress and returns to scale components. Our approach uses exact index number methods to reduce the parameters that must be estimated, and allows us to exploit the cross‐sectional dimension of plant‐level panel data. We show that the same equation can also be used to estimate ‘Harberger’ scale economies and technical progress indicators that require fewer assumptions. Estimates of the elasticity of scale for Japanese establishments in three major industries over 1964–88 are presented. Our study spans the high growth era of the 1960s, two oil shocks, and other exogenous shocks.     

Managerial Efficiency in German Top League Soccer: An Econometric Analysis of Club Performances On and Off the Pitch

Abstract. This study applies stochastic frontier analytic techniques in the estimation of sporting production functions. As ex-ante input factors, we use pre-seasonal estimates of wage bills of players and coaches that are transformed during the production process of a season into ex-post pecuniary revenues and sporting success. In the case of athletic output we find a robust pattern of technical efficiency over subsequent seasons. Estimates based on economic output, however, do not support an efficiency model. A significant inter-seasonal change in overall technical productivity rather highlights the economic instability of the German soccer industry.     

Endogenous induced technical change and the costs of Kyoto

We present a model for climate change policy analysis which accounts for the possibility that technology evolves endogenously and that technical change can be induced by environmental policy measures. Both the output production technology and the emission–output ratio depend upon a stock of knowledge, which accumulates through R&D activities. Two versions of this model are studied, one with endogenous technical change but exogenous environmental technical change and the other with both endogenous and induced technical change. A third version also captures technological spillover effects. As an application, the model is simulated allowing for trade of pollution permits as specified in the Kyoto Protocol and assessing the implications in terms of cost efficiency, economic growth and R&D efforts of the three different specifications of technical change.     

Computerization and Structural Change

I develop three measures of structural change on the basis of U.S. data: changes in occupational composition, changes in input–output technical coefficients, and changes in capital coefficients. Using pooled cross-section, time-series data for 44 industries over the period from 1970 to 1990, I find that computer investment per worker has had a positive and significant effect on the degree of occupational change and changes in input and capital coefficients.     

INFRASTRUCTURE AND PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY: AN ANALYSIS ON THE KOREAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

This study estimates an aggregate production function of manufacturing industry using panel data of 11 Korean regions covering 1977–1992. While the previous studies regard infrastructure as a direct input for production, the present study proposes that infrastructure has an effect on actual output by enhancing technical efficiency thereby, reducing the gap between maximum potential output and actual output. To investigate the relationship between infrastructure and technical efficiency, a stochastic frontier approach is applied to Korean manufacturing industry. Confirming the presence of substantial technical inefficiency in production, this study shows that an increase in infrastructure reduces the technical inefficiency level. The study also finds that, contrary to expectation, the industrialized regions are less efficient than the less industrialized ones. (JEL O20, H54, C23)     

Keynes,Sraffa and the labour market ∗

The paper argues that input–output analysis existed long before it received its name and Wassily Leontief made it popular as a tool of empirical analysis and a foundation of economic policy. It grew out of an attempt to ascertain the capacity of an economic system to reproduce itself and generate a surplus that can be used for various purposes. Primitive pronouncements are encountered in early civilizations, for example Mesopotamia, in terms of the ratio of the amount of grain produced and the amount of it used up, directly and indirectly. These ideas reappeared in a more sophisticated form at the time of the inception of systematic economic analysis in the 17th and 18th centuries in Europe and found a two-sector expression in François Quesnay's Tableau économique. The material input–output structure was then considered the core of the economic system that contained one of the keys to basically all other important economic phenomena and magnitudes. The way in which the potentialities embodied in the input–output structure, conceived as a system of production, have, or have not, been exploited over time define both the problems and perspectives of contemporary input–output analysis. Three aspects will be scrutinized more closely: the problem of value added, the treatment of fixed capital and the problem of technical change. Happily enough, while the problems are huge, the prospects are encouraging. There is no fear that input–output analysts will soon have to look for new fields of research because the old ones have been exhausted.     

Technological Competence And Firm Economic Performance In Zimbabwe's Manufacturing Industry

Using data obtained from firm interviews, the paper attempts to relate, statistically, economic performance with technology. The firms interviewed belong to four industries: food and beverages (ISIC 31), textiles and clothing (ISIC 32), wood and furniture (ISIC 33), and metalworking (ISIC 34). An aggregate, synthetic, technology variable was built using data on three components: transfer of technology channels, manpower technical skills, and technological efforts. The transfer channels component comprised three sub-components: number of licensing contracts, number of technical assistance agreements, and number of expatriate technical personnel. The skills component also included three sub-components: number of engineers, number of scientists, and number of middle level technical personnel employed. The technical efforts component was formed by the addition of two normalized sub-components: R&D expenditures and number of uses made of technical support services. All these variables were measured at the individual firm level. The paper explores first the relationship between technology (as defined above) and two potential explanatory variables: size of firm and foreign ownership. In a second statistical exercise, the technology variable is incorporated, with traditional factors of production, in a production function. In the last statistical exercise, firm performance indicators were related to technology. Based on the availability of reliable data, the two performance indicators selected were: output per worker and whether the firm exported part of its output or not. The possible incidence of sectoral (industry) effects was also taken into account. It could be concluded that the sample data used shows a statistically significant, though not very strong, effect of the technology variable on both, output and output per worker, and a somewhat stronger association with whether Zimbabwe's manufacturing firms export or not.     

Is It a Few Days of Good Times and then Darkness Ensues? Long-Term Performance of an Industry after Broad Reforms and Privatisation

ABSTRACT

The long-run financial performances of privatised firms have rarely been investigated. This study examines the financial and operational performance within the Pakistani cement industry utilising two decades of post-privatisation data. Broadly speaking, regression analyses confirm that long-term positive impacts of reforms and privatisation on profitability, output and investment are uncertain. After controlling for firm, industry and economic factors, our estimates show that privatised firms initially improved their profitability but recorded a statistically significant decline over a longer period. The sale efficiency, capacity utilisation, and leverage indicators, however, improved over a considerably long post-ownership change period.     

National capacities to absorb and institutionalize external science and technology

This article describes a conceptual model of kechnology absorption and adaptation leading to a country's export-based conipetitiveness in high-technology products, and the results of the model's application to empirical data on 29 countries. The model is one output of a recently-completed, five-year investigation of indicators of high-technology development. The model's seven conceptual variables were operationalized by combining statistical data with expert-derived measures to produce composite indicators.

The seven indicators include four “leading” or infact indicators that are expected to be predictive of a nation's competitiveness, in high-techndogy products i n approximately 15 years, and three output indicators of current competitiveness: world market share, national emphasis on high technology products for export, and recent rate of change in world market share. Extensive assument of the validity and reliability of the indicators leads to the conclusion that the model is a useful tool, for both policy and research.     

Cross-Sectoral Patterns of Efficiency and Technical Change in Manufacturing

This article uses data from 11 countries for 19 years to investigate the forces driving output change in 6 manufacturing sectors. A flexible model is adopted that allows for the decomposition of output changes into three types of change: technical, efficiency, and input. This framework allows, among other things, for the investigation of (1) the relative roles of the three components of output growth in each sector, (2) the manner in which efficiency change moves over the business cycle, and (3) potential technical spillovers from one sector to another.     

A SURVEY ON THE OUTPUT EFFECTS OF TAX REFORMS FROM A POLICY PERSPECTIVE

This study reviews the existing evidence on the effects of tax reforms on output levels and growth over the short and long run from different strands of the literature. It develops and applies criteria to evaluate the usefulness of ex‐post estimates to predict the effects of tax reforms ex ante. Based on these criteria, we present detailed tables summarizing and comparing ex‐post estimates of the effects of tax reforms. Overall, our review suggests that at least the direction of the short‐run and long‐run growth effects can be predicted with a reasonable degree of certainty, but there is disagreement with respect to the magnitude. Our review also suggests that depending on the tax change, trade‐offs between short‐run stabilization and long‐run growth may arise and that more research on this question is needed. (JEL E62, H20, O20)