Predatory mortgage lending

Regulators express growing concern over predatory loans, which we take to mean loans that borrowers should decline. Using a model of consumer credit in which such lending is possible, we identify the circumstances in which it arises both with and without competition. We find that predatory lending is associated with highly collateralized loans, inefficient refinancing of subprime loans, lending without due regard to ability to pay, prepayment penalties, balloon payments, and poorly informed borrowers. Under most circumstances competition among lenders attenuates predatory lending. We use our model to analyze the effects of legislative interventions.     

Mortgage timing

We study how the term structure of interest rates relates to mortgage choice at both household and aggregate levels. A simple utility framework of mortgage choice points to the long-term bond risk premium as distinct from the yield spread and the long yield as a theoretical determinant of mortgage choice: when the bond risk premium is high, fixed-rate mortgage payments are high, making adjustable-rate mortgages more attractive. We confirm empirically that the bulk of the time variation in both aggregate and loan-level mortgage choice can be explained by time variation in the bond risk premium, whether bond risk premia are measured using forecasters’ data, a vector autoregressive (VAR) term structure model, or a simple household decision rule based on adaptive expectations. The household decision rule moves in lock-step with mortgage choice, lending credibility to a theory of strategic mortgage timing by households.     

Stockholding: Participation, location, and spillovers

This paper provides the first joint analysis of household stockholding participation, location among stockholding modes, and participation spillovers. Our model matches observed participation, conditional and unconditional, and asset location patterns. We find that financial sophistication correlates strongly only with direct stockholding and mutual fund participation, while social interactions mainly influence stockholding through retirement accounts. Whether retirement account owners include stocks in their accounts strongly depends on owner characteristics, which is not the case with mutual fund owners and investment in stock funds. Stockholding is more common among retirement account owners, but mainly because of owner characteristics rather than of any participation spillovers from retirement account ownership.     

Debit or credit?

Empirical consumer payment price sensitivity has implications for theory, optimal regulation of payment card networks, and business strategy. A critical margin is the price of a credit card charge. A revolver who did not pay her most recent balance in full pays interest; other credit card users do not. I find that revolvers are substantially less likely to incur credit card charges and substantially more likely to use a debit card, conditional on several proxies for transaction demand and tastes. Debit use also increases with credit limit constraints and decreases with credit card possession. Additional results suggest that debit is becoming a stronger substitute for credit over time.     

Stock market aversion? Political preferences and stock market participation

We find that left-wing voters and politicians are less likely to invest in stocks, controlling for income, wealth, education, and other relevant factors. This finding from unique data sets in Finland is robust both at the zip code and at the individual level. A moderate left voter is 17–20% less likely to own stocks than a moderate right voter. The results are consistent with the idea that personal values are a factor in important investment decisions, in this case leading to “stock market aversion.” The results are inconsistent with alternative explanations such as wealth effects, risk aversion, reverse causality, return expectations, or social capital.     

Limited participation and the closed-end fund discount

In this paper, we present economic forces that affect the closed-end fund share price using a simple two-period model with limited participation. We characterize three economic forces: management fee, principal-agent problem effect and diversification benefit effect. The role of the management fee is consistent with recent studies by Ross [Ross S., 2002. Neoclassical finance, alternative finance and the closed end fund puzzle. European Financial Management 8, 129–137, Ross, S., 2002. A neoclassical look at behavioral finance: closed end funds. The Princeton lectures in finance III] and findings of various empirical studies [e.g., Kumar, R., Noronha, G.M., 1992. A re-examination of the relationship between closed-end fund discounts and expenses. Journal of Financial Research 15(2) Summer, 139–147; Russel, P.S., 2005. Closed-end fund pricing: The puzzle, the explanations, and some new evidence, Journal of Business and Economic Studies 11(1), 34–49; Gemmill, G., Thomas, D.C., 2002. Noise trading, costly arbitrage, and asset prices: Evidence from closed end funds. Journal of Finance 57(6), 2571–2594]. The model’s principal-agent problem effect is consistent with empirical findings by Brickley et al. [Brickley, James, Steven Manaster, Schallheim, James, 1991. The tax-timing option and the discounts on closed-end investment companies. Journal of Business 64, 287–312] of positive relation between the fund discount and the average variance of the constituent assets in the fund portfolio. In addition, it provides a theoretical framework for empirical studies, which examine the role of agency costs [Barclay, Michael J., Clifford G. Holderness, Jeffrey Pontiff, 1993. Private benefits from block ownership and discounts on closed-end funds. Journal of Financial Economics 33, 263–291] and compensation contracts [Coles, J., Suay, J., Woodbury, D., 2000. Fund advisor compensation in closed-end funds. Journal of Finance 55 (3), 1385–1414; Deli, Daniel N., 2002. Mutual fund advisory contracts: An empirical Investigation. Journal of Finance 57(1), 109–133] on the behavior of fund managers and fund discounts. The model’s diversification benefit effect supports the result in [Bonser-Neal C., Brauer,G., Neal, R.., Wheatley, S., 1990. International investment restrictions and closed-end country fund prices. Journal of Finance 45, 523–547] that announcement of financial market liberalization is associated with a decrease in the fund premium. It also supports the findings of [Kumar, R., Noronha, G.M., 1992. A re-examination of the relationship between closed-end fund discounts and expenses. Journal of Financial Research 15(2) Summer, 139–147; Chay, J.B., Trzcinka, Charles A., 1999. Managerial performance and the cross-sectional pricing of closed-end funds. Journal of Financial Economics 52, 379–408] of a positive relation between current premium and the risk-adjusted return over the following year.     

Does the stock market affect firm investment in China? A price informativeness perspective

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between firm-level investment and the stock market in China from a price informativeness perspective. We find that firm investment does not significantly respond to the stock market valuation, because stock prices contain very little extra information about the future operating performance of firms. This finding is further supported by the relative investment response test and the relative price information content test based on the informativeness proxy of price non-synchronicity combined with firm information transparency.     

Nonparametric efficiency estimation in stochastic environments: Noise-to-signal estimation,finite sample performance and hypothesis testing

This study considers the issues of noise-to-signal estimation, finite sample performance and hypothesis testing for a new nonparametric and stochastic efficiency estimation technique. We apply the technique for analyzing the efficiency of European banks from various regions and with various specializations. The technique seems well suited for this application area because banking inputs and outputs generally are measured with error, the banking production technology is not well-defined and large banking data sets such as BankScope allow for a nonparametric approach.     

Lending competition and credit availability for new firms: Empirical study with the price cost margin in regional loan markets

In this paper, I present statistical evidence of the impact of lending competition on credit availability for new firms. A discrete-time duration analysis with respect to the years from the start-up to the first loan approval by a commercial bank or a cooperative bank, which is collected from survey data in Japan, shows that the higher price cost margin (PCM) of banks, which reflects the existence of a quasi-rent for a bank, improves the credit availability for younger firms. Additional analysis to detect the regional determinants of the PCM of banks shows that the share of larger banks in each local credit market has a negative and significant impact on the PCM. In light of the existing empirical finding that smaller banks are more likely to provide relationship banking, these findings provide indirect evidence for the hypothesis that the intensity of relationship banking in each local credit market increases the PCM and this encourages banks to extend a loan to new firms so that they can pre-empt the opportunity to establish lending relationships that are expected to yield such quasi-rents.     

Productivity and efficiency analysis of Shinkin banks: Evidence from bootstrap and Bayesian approaches

This paper analyzes the productivity and efficiency of Shinkin banks and the various prefectures in Japan, over the period from 2000 to 2006. We obtain estimates of efficiency growth and productivity growth, using the bootstrapped Malmquist index, and estimates of efficiency using the Bayesian distance frontier approach. We confirm that the efficiency growth and productivity growth of Shinkin banks did not improve significantly over the period of this study. In addition, we show that the efficiency of Shinkin banks is homogenous, with little variation across the banks analyzed. Methodologically, we also prove that a failure to impose theoretical regularity on the distance function could lead to false conclusions about the average efficiency or efficiency ranking of Shinkin banks. The study also includes an analysis of the correlates of productivity and efficiency growth, and provides efficiency and productivity estimates of the prefectures in which the banks are located.     

Income hedging and portfolio decisions

We examine whether the decision to participate in the stock market and other related portfolio decisions are influenced by income hedging motives. Economic theory predicts that the market participation propensity should increase as the correlation between income growth and stock market returns decreases. Surprisingly, empirical studies find limited support for the income hedging motive. Using a rich, unique Dutch data set and the National Longitudinal Survey of the Youth (NLSY) from the United States, we show that when the income-return correlation is low, individuals exhibit a greater propensity to participate in the market and allocate a larger proportion of their wealth to risky assets. Even when the income risk is high, individuals exhibit a higher propensity to participate in the market when the hedging potential is high. These findings suggest that income hedging is an important determinant of stock market participation and asset allocation decisions.     

Asymmetric dynamics of stock price continuation

This paper finds that the dynamics of stock price continuation are asymmetrical, in terms of both business cycles and past performances. During times of recession, stock returns are explained differently for past losers and winners; the level of credit quality dominates the return dynamics for extreme losers, while levels of information-based trading activity and information ambiguity contribute to winners’ medium-term returns. Such asymmetry is proposed as the source of insignificant profits achieved using conventional momentum strategies. On the other hand, in times of expansion, conventional asset pricing factors are found to affect stock returns with a dependence on the level of credit quality; this suggests that more profitable momentum strategies remain to be discovered.     

Conditional Value-at-Risk,spectral risk measures and (non-)diversification in portfolio selection problems – A comparison with mean–variance analysis

We study portfolio selection under Conditional Value-at-Risk and, as its natural extension, spectral risk measures, and compare it with traditional mean–variance analysis. Unlike the previous literature that considers an investor’s mean-spectral risk preferences for the choice of optimal portfolios only implicitly, we explicitly model these preferences in the form of a so-called spectral utility function. Within this more general framework, spectral risk measures tend towards corner solutions. If a risk free asset exists, diversification is never optimal. Similarly, without a risk free asset, only limited diversification is obtained. The reason is that spectral risk measures are based on a regulatory concept of diversification that differs fundamentally from the reward-risk tradeoff underlying the mean–variance framework.     

The determinants of household risky asset holdings: Australian evidence on background risk and other factors

We study the portfolio allocation decisions of Australian households using the relatively new Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. We focus on household allocations to risky financial assets. Our empirical analysis considers a range of hypothesised determinants of these allocations. We find background risk factors posed by labor income uncertainty and health risk are important. Credit constraints and observed risk preferences play the expected role. A positive age gradient is identified for risky asset holdings and home-ownership is associated with greater risky asset holdings. A unifying theme for many of our empirical findings is the important role played by financial awareness and knowledge in determining risky asset holdings. Many non-stockholding households appear to lack the experience and financial literacy that might enable them to benefit from direct investment in stocks.     

Preferred risk habitat of individual investors

The preferred risk habitat hypothesis, introduced here, is that individual investors select stocks whose volatilities are commensurate with their risk aversion. The data, 1995–2000 holdings of over 20,000 clients at a large German broker, are consistent with the predictions of the hypothesis: the returns of stocks within each portfolio have remarkably similar volatilities, when stocks are sold they are replaced by stocks of similar volatilities, and the more risk-averse customers indeed hold less volatile stocks. Greater volatility specialization is associated with lower Sharpe ratios, primarily because more specialized investors hold fewer stocks and thereby expose themselves to more unsystematic risk.     

Behavioral biases of mutual fund investors

We examine the effect of behavioral biases on the mutual fund choices of a large sample of US discount brokerage investors using new measures of attention to news, tax awareness, and fund-level familiarity bias, in addition to behavioral and demographic characteristics of earlier studies. Behaviorally biased investors typically make poor decisions about fund style and expenses, trading frequency, and timing, resulting in poor performance. Furthermore, trend chasing appears related to behavioral biases, rather than to rationally inferring managerial skill from past performance. Factor analysis suggests that biased investors often conform to stereotypes that can be characterized as Gambler, Smart, Overconfident, Narrow Framer, and Mature.