Understanding the Political Motivations That Shape Rwanda's Emergent Developmental State

Twenty years after its horrific genocide, Rwanda has become a model for economic development. At the same time, its government has been criticised for authoritarian tactics and the use of violence. Missing from the often polarised debate are the connections between these two perspectives. Synthesising existing literature on Rwanda in light of a combined year of fieldwork, we argue that the Government of Rwanda is using the developmental infrastructure to deepen state power and expand political control. We first identify the historical pressures that have motivated the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) to reimagine the political landscape. Sectarian unrest, political rivalry, wider regional insecurity and aid withdrawal have all pressured the RPF to identify growth as strategic. However, the political transformation extends beyond a prioritisation of growth and encompasses the articulation of ideologies and new mindsets, the provision of social services and infrastructure and the reordering of the social and physical layout of the territory. Growth and social control go hand in hand. As such, this paper's main contribution is to bring together the two sides of the Rwandan debate and place the country in a broader sociological literature about the parallel development of capitalist relations and transformations in state power.     

Labour Management as Development of the Integrated Developmental State in China

The application of the developmental state concept outside its birthplace in East Asia is generally unsuccessful. The culprit is the ‘laundry list’ method commonly seen in the literature. In this paper a ‘strategic capacity’ conceptualisation is used instead, with emphasis on its diverse institutional underpinnings. The paper demonstrates that the Chinese state's approach to industrial relations is integrated with its national development strategy and that crafting institutions of labour management is part of the state's effort at building up its strategic capacity for political, social and economic management. The study delineates the factors shaping labour management institutions, paying special attention to the communist heritage that sets China apart from other developmental states. As such, the concept of developmental state has much wider application.     

Governing Poverty in a Neoliberal Age: New Labour and the Case of Financial Exclusion

In the UK, from the 1990s, the concept of financial exclusion emerged as a focus of policymaking concern. In part, this reflects the growing scale and complexity of personal finance markets and how these are increasingly interwoven into the everyday lives of individuals. However, it is also argued that the development of the concept of financial exclusion reflects preeminent neoliberal discourses that emphasise the centrality of individual responsibility, autonomy and consumer participation within markets. In 2004 the then Labour government, in conjunction with academic experts, financial institutions and other organisations, established a project of financial inclusion in relation to three key domains: banking, affordable credit and financial capability. The consequence, it is suggested here, has not been so much to alleviate inequality as to nurture the poor to be precautionary, risk averse financial subjects. This stands in contrast with the virtues of enterprise and risk-taking called up in middle-class investor subjects.     

Beyond market failures: the market creating and shaping roles of state investment banks

The paper develops a typological framework of the roles of state investment banks (SIBs) in the economy. The typology identifies four different roles: countercyclical; developmental; venture capitalist; and challenge-led. The paper conceptually elaborates the typology by first providing a historical overview of SIBs, and then discussing how the mainstream “market failure theory” justifies them. It then advances a different conceptualization based on insights from heterodox economics, showing that all roles of SIBs are more about market creating/shaping rather than market-failure fixing. The paper concludes with a proposal of a new agenda for research on SIBs based on our typological framework.     

Comparative Analysis of Thresholds of Non-Revolutionary Institutional Change: China and the United States in the 1980s

Ireland has experienced a series of interlocking banking, fiscal, unemployment, and political crises since 2007. We detail the challenges involved in modeling individual moments of the crisis through the lens of balance sheets and transactions matrices among sectors of the Irish society. We conclude with a series of recommendations for models of small open economies.     

Seize the Moment: Financial Crisis and the Making of the Finnish Competition State

In this paper we examine how Finnish Governments dismantled the Nordic welfare state paradigm from the 1990s onwards and adopted Schumpeterian ideas of a competitive workfare state. In the early 1990s, Finland went through a financial crisis that was the most severe in OECD countries since the Second World War and came to play a major role in the paradigm change. In the crisis, the Ministry of Finance gained a central role as a consensus-building power broker, and formulated a political strategy of national competitiveness, which was adopted as a rationale of power for consensual governments and has been maintained since. We suggest that financial crises can become formative moments in which new ideas are adopted and policies are reformulated. They can also become moments which provide opportunity to overcome citizen opinion. In Finland, the wide popular and party support for the Nordic welfare model was not reflected in the new paradigm.     

The lower bound and the causes of monetary policy inertia: evidence from Sweden

In 2009, in the midst of a global recession, Sweden’s Riksbank approached a lower bound on nominal interest rates. This encounter with the lower bound provides a natural experiment for investigating the causes of monetary policy inertia. To exploit this experiment, we estimate Taylor rules with Tobit specifications that permit both interest rate smoothing and persistent shocks (serial correlation) as explanations for inertia. The interest rate smoothing hypothesis leads to a specification in which lagged actual values of the dependent variable appear on the right-hand side of the Taylor rule, while the persistent shocks hypothesis leads to a specification in which lagged values of an unobserved latent dependent variable appear on the right-hand side of the Taylor rule. The divergence of actual and latent dependent variables that occurs at the lower bound provides leverage in distinguishing the two hypotheses. For a conventional Taylor rule, we find evidence of both sources of inertia. For a modified Taylor rule that includes a measure of financial stress, our evidence suggests that interest rate smoothing is the principal source of monetary policy inertia.     

The Issue of Efficiency and the Role of State in New Institutional Economics: A Critical Perspective

ABSTRACT

This article scrutinises and criticises the notion of efficiency and the role of state in the emergence and evolution of institutions and property rights within the tradition of new institutional economics. Specifically, the attempt is to criticise the efficiency view of the formation of property rights and institutions. It is shown that the efficiency concept cannot provide a sufficient rationale for explaining the origins of private property. Additionally, some recent developments of North's thought are critically scrutinised, showing that his theoretical apparatus could be conceived as a paradise for the eclectic. Further, the role of the state in different versions of the theory of property rights – with a special reference to North's treatment of the notion of state – is, also, critically examined. Although North’s work has virtues compared to the ‘naïve model’ of property rights by recognising and addressing the role of the state and the issue of power in the formation of property rights and institutions, he does not succeed in fully accounting for the existence of institutional arrangements, due to his adherence to an individualist framework.     

国家助学贷款风险成因分析与对策研究

国家助学贷款工作是党中央、国务院实施科教兴国战略的一项重大决策,是适应我国教育体制改革和发展的需要。加强国家助学贷款风险管理,是各商业银行面临的急需解决的问题。从国家助学贷款风险的特征出发,分析贷款风险的成因,提出防范国家助学贷款风险的对策建议。     

区域产业集群创新系统发展路径与机制研究

区域产业集群创新系统既是区域创新系统的重要组分,也是区域、国家和全球产业链与价值链的一个结点.基于Logistic模型的研究发现,产业集群创新系统存在演化周期现象,且是一个白组织系统,具有非连续性,遵循社会生态演化机理.运用结构方程模型的实证分析发现,资金支撑仍是区域产业集群创新的重要问题,创新收益是驱动企业创新进而影响产业集群创新能力的重要因素,且已显现出巨大推动力.区域产业集群创新系统的发展路径,目前可供选择的主要有集结型优化路径、联盟型优化路径和配置型优化路径,涉及到企业选择、社会选择和政府选择等问题.由于三条路径各有优劣,需要建构一条开放式协同路径,并着重探索形成动力机制、互补机制、共担机制、协作机制和多元化机制.     

The Role of Culture,Historicity, and Human Agency in the Evolution of the State: A Case Against Cultural Fatalism

I examine how the nature of the state and its relationship to its people are determined and evolve. I bring together differing contributions of traditional institutionalism to further an emerging evolutionary-institutionalist discourse concerning the role played by culture and historicity, on one hand, and by individual actions and awareness, on the other, in shaping and reshaping the nature of the state. Such discourse is significant in understanding that, although inherited culture plays an important role in influencing the character of the state in a given society, the future of the state is not fully determined by its history. In equal measure, it depends on the volition of individuals who purposefully amend the state’s institutions through rearranging power distribution. Using Russia’s authoritarian state as a case in point, I demonstrate how this emerging evolutionary-institutionalist discourse can circumvent ideological misuse of the institutionalist paradigm in non-democratic societies.     

促进中部崛起的科学基础与国家援助政策

本文在对“中部塌陷”现象进行深入分析的基础上,探讨了促进中部崛起的科学基础、战略目标和定位以及国家援助政策。作者认为,近年来中部地区出现的塌陷现象并非是全国最严重的,其“增长塌陷”不如东北地区,而“水平塌陷”不如西部地区。促进中部崛起是一项长期的艰巨任务,当前应针对中部地区的典型问题区域,实施有差别的国家援助政策。     

Role of government in trade and investment boom: lessons from East Asia

This paper extends the empirical analysis on Rodrik’s (1995a) domestic investment‐led export growth model for East Asia to nine East Asian countries for a longer time period, 1960 through 2004, and tests whether openness Granger‐caused investment or vice versa. Our results suggest that there can be no single conclusion about the role of investment in East Asia. Causality has also changed for some countries in different time periods. We question the exogeneity of the investment boom in East Asia, a key assumption made by Rodrik. Government’s incentives encouraged investment in export industries through different channels.     

The Current Wave of State Enterprise Reform in China: A Preliminary Appraisal

State enterprise reforms are underway in China, and include some positive and overdue corporate governance reform. However, the potential effectiveness of the reforms is compromised by the attempt of policy‐makers to achieve three goals which form an “impossible trinity”: increase firm autonomy; improve oversight; and assign new developmental missions to state firms. The goal of assigning new developmental missions to state firms is reflected in the design of new state investment companies which are intended to gradually take over ownership functions from existing agencies. The structure and function of the new ownership agencies undermines the potential of the corporate governance reforms at the enterprise level. These contradictions will be costly because state firms will likely be ineffective in carrying out developmental missions—particularly technology innovation—while also failing in the enterprise reform goal of becoming more efficient and profitable.     

The Role of Monetary Policy in the New Keynesian Model: Evidence from Vietnam

This paper re-designs the New Keynesian model developed by Ireland (2004 Ireland, P. N. (2004). Technology shocks in the New Keynesian model. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(4), 923–936. doi: 10.1162/0034653043125158[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and then uses the Vietnamese data from January 1995 to December 2012 to estimate the model's parameters. The empirical results show that the State Bank of Vietnam had been more aggressive as well as more responsive to aggregate fluctuations in the period before August 2000 than in the latter period. Thus, this change in the policy stance could be a potential reason for the declining importance of monetary policy in generating movements in output growth, inflation, interest rate, and the output gap across the subsamples. Another notable finding is the dominant role of the cost-push shock in explaining fluctuations in inflation, interest rate, and the output gap, leading to a policy implication that more attention should be devoted to developing substitute and complement industries so as to mitigate negative effects of the cost-push shocks by reducing the degree of dependence on imports.     

Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective

A time-varying natural rate of interest is estimated for the euro area using a multivariate unobserved components model. The problem of aggregating interest rate data for the pre-EMU period is directly addressed, and a simple method is proposed in order to adjust the risk premia in the interest rate data prior to 1999. We show that, for the pre-EMU period, using risk-unadjusted policy rates leads to periods of high risk premia being erroneously taken as monetary policy replies to the output gap; in contrast, using risk-adjusted policy rates yields an estimate of the reaction of monetary policy to the output gap corresponding approximately to an increase of 40 basis points for a 1%positive deviation of output from potential output. A positive deviation of inflation from its trend of 1%is estimated to have triggered an approximately 1.2%increase in short-term interest rates.     

Shadow rates as a measure of the monetary policy stance: Some international evidence

This paper examines the usefulness of shadow rates to measure the monetary policy stance by comparing them to the official policy rates and those implied by three types of Taylor rules in both inflation-targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) and others that have only targeted inflation at times (the United States, Japan, the Euro Area and Switzerland) over the period from the early 1990s to December 2021. Shadow rates estimated from a dynamic factor model are shown to suggest a much looser policy stance than either the official policy rates or those implied by the Taylor rules, and generally to provide a more accurate picture of the monetary policy stance during both ZLB and non-ZLB periods, since they reflect the full range of unconventional policy measures used by central banks. Furthermore, generalised impulse response analysis based on three alternative vector autoregression (VAR) models indicates that monetary shocks based on the shadow rates are more informative than those related to the official policy rates or to two- and three-factor shadow rates, especially during the Global Financial Crisis and the recent COVID-19 pandemic, when unconventional measures have been adopted. Finally, unconventional policy shocks seem to have less persistent effects on the economy in countries, which have adopted an inflation-targeting regime.     

依法治税和纳税服务——基于国家税收和公共税收的视角

依法治税和纳税服务是现阶段税收的两大任务。对两者的认识,不能孤立地或对立地看,而是要在社会主义市场经济下的税收应是国家税收和公共税收的统一的视角下加以把握。从这一认识出发,我们就能真正做到坚持依法治税,优化纳税服务,服务科学发展,就能探索出一条中国特色社会主义市场经济条件下的纳税服务新路。     

Plucking models of business cycle fluctuations: Evidence from the G-7 countries

Friedman's `plucking' model, in which output cannot exceed a ceiling level but is occasionally plucked downward by recessions, is tested using Kim and Nelson's formal econometric specification on output data from the G-7 countries. Considerable support for the model is obtained, leading us to conclude that during normal periods, output seems to be driven mostly by permanent shocks, but during recessions and high-growth recoveries, transitory shocks dominate. During these periods macroeconomic models that emphasise demand-oriented shocks, rather than real business cycle type models, may thus be more appropriate. First Version Received: September 2000/Final Version Received: May 2001     

The Adaptive Nature of the Neoliberal State and the State-led Neoliberalisation of Nature: Unpacking the Political Economy of Water in Lima,Peru

The neoliberalisation of water constitutes an emblematic illustration of the enduring encroachment of neoliberalism upon nature. Previous studies in Latin America have examined the transition from Keynesian water utilities to the neoliberal provisions of water services, but paid less attention to the adaptability of the state apparatus and the systematic adjustments required to sustain neoliberalising strategies. Addressing this gap in the literature, this paper examines two decades of change in the public water services of Lima, Peru, as one of the Latin American countries where neoliberal reforms have been more comprehensive and resilient. The analysis focuses on the water policies advanced by the national state and with the reconfiguration of the state apparatus as a result of extra-economic factors. The neoliberalisation of water may have improved the situation at the aggregate level, but inequalities, scarcities and vulnerabilities have been maintained and even reinforced. The achievements and failures of the neoliberalisation of water have ultimately depended on a range of politico-economic and socioecological interactions creatively mediated by the state apparatus. In the end, however, the neoliberal adjustments in the structure and operation of the state have replicated the double exploitation of nature and society that has long shaped Peruvian economic history.