我国政府性债务与金融体系安全的阈值效应--基于2001-2012年数据的实证研究

我国政府性债务无序扩张对金融体系安全产生何种影响是研究的热点问题。文章构建了包括宏观经济内部安全、宏观经济外部安全、金融市场运行安全3个模块,共计15个指标的金融体系安全指数,并引用2001-2012年的数据进行测度,进而采用数据模拟的方法建立政府性债务和金融体系安全指数的非线性模型。结果发现,我国政府性债务与金融体系安全之间存在阈值效应,时间节点在2010年,阈值为64.6960万亿元,自此以后,金融体系安全指数随政府性债务规模扩大呈现超线性上升趋势,我国政府性债务已经成为威胁金融体系安全的重大隐患,亟需建立有效的约束框架维护金融体系安全。     

债务结构、政府干预与市场环境

使用2002—2005年上市公司的面板数据对上市公司负债融资结构的影响因素研究发现:除一些企业内部的具体因素影响了企业的债务结构外,企业外部环境因素也影响了企业的债务结构。尤其表现在,企业所处地区的政府干预越多,市场化程度越低,法治水平越差,银行债务占总负债的比例越高;企业所处地区的政府干预越少,市场化程度越高,法治水平越好,信用债务占总负债的比例越高。     

The impact of mobile financial services’ usage on microfinance delinquency

This paper studies the impact of Mobile Financial Systems’ usage on microcredit delinquency ratios in Tunisia by using either a two-part model or matching econometric procedures. Our large dataset contains all of the administrative registers that belong to the six branches of Enda, the incumbent Institution leader in Tunisia. We find a significant reduction of 4.92 days of late repayment for an average user of MFS in an environment where 15% of loans have been paid late at least once. We foresee a tremendous opportunity to improve the MFIs’ repayment ratios and, consequently, provide microcredit customers with more financing for income generating activities.     

基于财务视角的我国高校债务化解问题对策探讨

高校持续扩招,实现了我国高等教育跨越式增长,但是高校的贷款扩建、新建,形成了巨额负债,影响了健康发展。化解高校债务问题,应从政府、高校及学校资金管理多方面采取措施,从根本上解决高校发展中的债务问题,探寻高校持续健康的发展路子。     

Does bank competition promote financial inclusion? A cross-country evidence

The idea of financial inclusion has recently been discussed as one of the key strategies to enhance economic development (World Bank 2014). We move this discussion forward by examining if bank competition is a crucial component enforcing financial inclusion, which is arguably a finance supply-side driven process. In this study, we compute the financial inclusion index built on Sarma (2008) approach to better reflect banks’ willingness and capability to provide financial services. Applying System Generalized Method of Moments to the panel of 93 countries, we find that bank competition promotes financial inclusion.     

Financial inclusion: measurement,spatial effects and influencing factors

Using the index of financial inclusion and the World Bank Global Findex database, this study measures the level of financial inclusion across countries. The results reveal a geographical spatial aggregation distribution in which developed European and North American countries enjoy higher levels of financial inclusion than the less developed countries of Africa and most of Asia. Accordingly, our spatial analysis proves our hypothesis and reveals dependence and aggregation effects among countries. Then, we employ spatial econometric research to identify those factors significantly associated with financial inclusion. The results show that an individual’s income, education and use of communications equipment are important factors that explain the level of financial inclusion, while financial depth and banking health status are the main determinants. Building an inclusive financial system is an important means for most countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.     

Revisiting the finance–growth nexus: the Turkish case, 1980–2010

In Turkey, the empirical results on the link between financial development and economic growth are mixed. The existing studies do not take into account the fact that Turkey has experienced endemic political and economic instabilities over extended periods. This study aims to analyse the role of macroeconomic instability and public borrowing on the finance–growth nexus in Turkey by using time series econometric techniques over the 1980–2010 period. In doing so, we attempt to extend the existing literature by taking into account the role of macroeconomic instability as well as public borrowing. Our results reveal that there are additional – albeit indirect – channels between finance and growth via the effects of macro instability and public borrowing on financial development and economic growth. After taking into account the effects of overall instability and public borrowing, we found that growth–financial development relationship is bidirectional and permanent. In other words, in Turkish case, economic growth and financial development are jointly determined. Thus, our results shed some light on the ambiguity of the evidence on the link between financial development and economic growth for Turkey.     

我国铁路产业财务可持续：一个基于结构方程的分析

我国铁路建设所需的投资巨大,财务上已经形成了大量的债务性负担.为了实现我国铁路行业的财务可持续,首先要对影响国家铁路集团财务可持续的原因进行充分了解.以治理理论为核心,综合考虑多方面因素分析了中国国家铁路集团有限公司的财务可持续影响因素,通过问卷调查搜集数据,使用解释结构方程模型理清铁路负债的形成路径.结果表明:国家铁路集团的财务可持续是一个市场治理、社会治理、政府治理因素综合影响的结果,其中政府治理因素处于主导地位.建议化解铁路产业存量债务,构建铁路产业的公益性运输补贴机制,推进灵活票制票价实施等.     

Optimal Financial Structure: An Incomplete Contracting Model

The financial structures of firms observed in practice typically consist of debt claims of different priority and maturity, and outside equity with unconditional control. A simple model is developed in which this type of complex financial structure arises endogenously as a mechanism to allocate control and cash flow rights among the firm's manager and its investors. While short-term debt commits the manager to liquidate the firm in low profit states, outside equity with unconditional control allows investors to seize control in states where the manager otherwise would pursue low profit projects with high private benefits of control. Finally, long-term (junior) debt creates a debt overhang that protects the manager from excessive shareholder involvement.
JEL classification : G 32     

The challenge of rural financial inclusion – evidence from microfinance

Financial inclusion is said to foster development and growth. However, progress in financial inclusion has been slow in rural areas where poverty is most pronounced. This is often attributed to higher transaction costs, higher risks and a more unfavourable contracting environment which makes it more difficult for financial institutions to achieve and maintain sustainability in rural compared to urban areas. Based on data covering 772 microfinance institutions (MFIs) over the period 2008–2013, we test whether rural financial inclusion, notably lending to rural borrowers, is hampered by stronger sustainability challenges than inclusion in urban markets. Our results suggest that a higher share of rural borrowers has no direct effect on MFI sustainability. However, we find that MFIs with a higher share of rural borrowers are less able to exploit economies of scale and productivity effects. Thus, our results provide support for the view that sustainability challenges make it more difficult to achieve progress in financial inclusion in rural than in urban areas.     

债券市场与经济发展的相关性分析——以我国银行间债券市场为例

债券市场是资本市场的重要组成部分,但目前我国资本市场发展阶段的特征表现为债券市场发展缓慢,为了扩大我国直接融资规模并完善多层次资本市场体系,需要大力发展债券市场。本文以我国债券市场的主体---银行间债券市场为例,分析了我国银行间债券市场的现状以及对国民经济发展的作用,并以1993-2012年我国国民生产总值、银行间债券市场债券发行额和股市筹资额共20年时间的时间序列数据为样本建立相关性模型,通过回归模型进一步实证研究了银行间债券市场与经济发展的相关性,发现银行间债券市场债券发行额与国民生产总值呈显著的正相关关系,表明银行间债券市场是经济发展的重要推动力,该市场规模的扩大有助于推动经济增长,从而说明了我国银行间债券市场创新的必要性。     

基于分层条件Copula的金融危机传染路径研究

本文采用分层条件Copula理论来研究次贷危机和欧债危机下的危机传染路径问题。在研究中采用t-GARCH (1,1)模型拟合各个金融市场的股指日收益率,以条件Copula分析两次危机下中国大陆股市与美国股市、英国股市、日本股市、台湾股市、香港股市2005年1月至2012年7月间的风险传染关系。实证研究表明：次贷危机期间美国股票市场将危机传染到香港股票市场,再由香港股票市场传染其他亚洲股票市场。而在欧债危机期间英国股票市场分别直接传染美国股票市场和香港股票市场,再通过香港股票市场对其他亚洲股票市场传染。两次危机下香港股票市场均是亚洲股票市场受到危机传染的媒介,因此我国在制定防范金融危机传染政策时应考虑对香港股票市场的控制,在传播层面上控制金融危机对我国的传染,减少对我国金融系统的冲击。     

政府干预、金融业发展和企业债务期限结构——基于我国民营上市公司的研究

本文以我国沪市A股民营上市公司为研究样本,利用其2001—2005年的面板数据,用SPSS13.0统计分析软件检验了各地区政府干预和金融业发展呈现出来的差异对公司债务期限结构的影响。实证研究结果表明:民营上市公司的债务期限结构与企业所在地的政府干预程度正相关,与当地金融业发展水平负相关。     

Financial stress and sovereign debt composition

Using a panel of 13 advanced economies for the period 1980–2012, we find that periods of impaired financial intermediation mainly accrue to maturity mismatches in sovereign debt. Thus, a higher (lower) share of short-term (medium and long-term) debt leads to an increase in the financial stress index. From a policy perspective, our work suggests that debt management policies translated into longer average maturities of sovereign debt not only reduce the expected debt servicing cost, but also mitigate strains in the financial sector.     

Lifting You up or Dragging You Down? The Role of Financial Inclusion in Poverty Transitions Among Italian Households

We estimate the effect of financial inclusion on transition probabilities into/out of poverty. By exploiting a longitudinal sample of Italian households between 2002 and 2016, we find that financial inclusion is effective in both reducing the likelihood of entering poverty and helping the poor to climb out of it. According to our estimates, access to deposit accounts reduces the risk of falling below the poverty line by 2.7 percentage points (pp) and increases the chance of exiting poverty by 4.4 pp. Significance and magnitude of such effects are confirmed when considering different poverty thresholds and definitions, alternative proxies for financial inclusion as well as alternative empirical strategies.