Je t'aime, moi non plus: Bilateral opinions and international trade

This paper studies the relationship between bilateral trade patterns and opinions. It uses the Eurobarometer public opinion surveys published by the European Commission, which provide data on the share of the population in each EU15 member country in favour of each CEEC joining the EU. Our results first suggest that bilateral opinions have a statistically robust and relatively large effect on imports, even when standard and new covariates capturing proximity between countries are controlled for. We interpret this effect as reflecting a positive impact of “bilateral affinity” on trade patterns. We also show that it is possible to go some way towards explaining the variance in bilateral opinions among our sample. Last we provide some preliminary attempt to determine causality between bilateral opinions and imports.     

Environmental policy in the European Union: Fostering the development of pollution havens?

A pollution haven occurs when dirty industries from developed nations relocate to developing nations in order to avoid strict environmental standards or developed nations imports of dirty industries expand replacing domestic production. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the European Union (EU) has increased its imports of “dirty” goods from poorer, less democratic countries during a period of more stringent environmental standards. Previous empirical studies such as those by Levinson and Taylor [Levinson, A., and Taylor, M.S., in press. Unmasking the Pollution Haven Effect. International Economic Review.], Ederington, Levinson and Minier [Ederington, J., Levinson, A., and Minier, J., 2005. Footloose and Pollution-Free. Review of Economics and Statistics., 87: 92-99.], Kahn and Yoshino (2004), and Ederington and Minier [Ederington, J., and Minier. J., 2003. Is Environmental Policy a Secondary Trade Barrier? An Empirical Analysis. Canadian Journal of Economics., 36: 137-54.] find evidence that United States imports are responsive to changes in environmental stringency, but the effects of EU policy have not been examined as thoroughly. Our study follows Kahn [Kahn, M.E., 2003. The Geography of Us Pollution Intensive Trade: Evidence from 1958 to 1994. Regional Science and Urban Economics., 33: 383-400.] and examines the impact of industry energy intensity and toxicity, measured by an energy index and a Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) index, on imports into the EU, at the 2-digit industry level from 1970 to 1999. We use the signing of the Maastricht Treaty to signify a period of more uniform and stringent community wide environmental standards (1993-1999), and identify the level of per capita GDP within an EU trading partner. We find an increased amount of EU energy intensive trade with poorer countries during the period with more stringent EU environmental standards. This result is not robust, however, when poorer countries are defined by OECD membership and geographic region. We do not find an increased amount of EU toxic intensive trade with poorer countries although there is some evidence of increased EU imports of toxic goods from poorer OECD and non-EU European countries. For our full sample of trading partners in all regions, the evidence supports the PHH for EU energy intensive trade, but not for toxic intensive trade. Results for regional trade analysis are less clear.     

试析欧共体贸易保护工具与WTO体制的“对接”——以TBR为例

贸易壁垒条例（TBR）是欧共体贸易保护法中首要的旨在保护欧共体在第三国贸易利益的进攻性法律手段。欧共体企业或产业协会依据TBR相关规定可向委员会提供有关第三国贸易保护与市场进入壁垒方面的信息,而委员会在权衡“共同体利益”后可决定是否向WTO提起争端解决程序,由此TBR在某种程度上与WTO体制实现了“对接”。在全球金融危机的负面影响仍未完全消退、多哈回合谈判仍陷于僵局的背景下,我国应密切跟踪国外贸易保护主义的发展趋势,切实发挥贸易预警和贸易调查制度的作用并完善相关制度建设,以便积极应对国际贸易摩擦和争端。     

Resisting Protectionism after the Crisis: Strategic Economic Discourse and the EU–Korea Free Trade Agreement

In 2006 the European Commission announced its Global Europe strategy, which proposed pursuing a series of ambitious Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) premised on exchanging the EU's remaining ‘pockets of protection’ for market access. The first of these agreements was signed with South Korea in October 2010. This article asks how the Commission's Directorate-General (DG) for Trade could successfully conclude this agreement in the aftermath of the Financial Crisis. Given a strong mobilisation of protectionists with access to policy-makers, this liberal policy outcome cannot be explained purely in terms of institutional insulation, as in much of the literature on EU trade policy, nor be simply ‘read off’ from the material interests of societal actors. This article, therefore, develops a constructivist framework which broadens our understanding of the power of strategically invoked economic discourses. By developing a novel analytical strategy to determine the intentional invocation of such discourses, it is able to show how DG Trade constructed an ideational imperative for liberalisation in Global Europe, enabling it to overcome opposition to the EU–Korea FTA. Beyond its contribution to constructivist scholarship, this article draws attention to the neglected dimension of ideas in trade policy and highlights the continued purchase of neoliberalism after the crisis.     

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and the Role of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling: An Exercise in ‘Managing Fictional Expectations’

Negotiations between the world's two largest trading partners, the European Union (EU) and the USA, on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) have been ongoing since July 2013. Anticipating the controversy the agreement has sparked, EU trade policy-makers in the European Commission have put considerable effort into discursively framing the agreement on their terms. Drawing on computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the agreement's likely impact, the central claim has been that the TTIP promises to deliver much-needed ‘growth and jobs’ without stretching the public purse at a time of austerity. Our main argument in this article, drawing on the insights of the economic sociologist Jens Beckert, is that these CGE models – and the figures they have produced – represent an important exercise in ‘managing of fictional expectations’. The models make overly optimistic predictions about the ability of the EU and the USA to eliminate regulatory barriers to trade – which are unlikely to be realised in the face of considerable political opposition – and also downplay the potential deregulatory impact of an agreement. Rather than act as a reliable guide to future outcomes, we thus show that these models serve the pro-liberalisation agenda of the European Commission and other advocates of the TTIP.     

Death by a Thousand Cuts? Financial Political Power and the Case of the European Financial Transaction Tax

Since the global financial crisis, a variety of explanations have been advanced to account for the weak response by policy-makers to the issue of financial regulation. This paper focuses upon the strategic political mobilisation of financial actors in order to provide a better understanding of their influence within regulatory battles in the post crisis era. It does so through a case study investigation of the European Union Financial Transaction Tax. Despite garnering support from leading member states, the European Commission and Parliament, and a majority of the European population, the policy has failed to materialise as a result of several postponements and unresolved negotiations at the Council of the European Union. Policy-makers have also gradually backed away from the aggressive proposal designed by the Commission, committing to a range of exemptions that threaten to render the policy ineffective at raising significant revenue and at preventing industry avoidance of the charge. The case provides evidence of a cohesive political strategy conducted primarily by transnational financial associations and demonstrates the unique capacity of financial actors to secure favourable regulatory outcomes. Specifically, this influence is exercised through the recruitment of non-financial sector allies and by exploiting the structural dependency fears of policy-makers.     

EU participation and the external trade of Greece: an appraisal of the evidence

This paper investigates the trade effects caused by the accession of Greece to the EU. A large part of the analysis is in terms of trade flows disaggregated by the 21 categories of the Greek Tariff Schedule. These series are original data sets which have been constructed by the author to be used here for the first time. The main message is that after 1981 events took a turn closer to the pessimistic pre-accession predictions. Our findings indicate that during the post-integration period the external trade of Greece has been reoriented towards the EU countries and Greece lost part of its comparative advantage in those sectors in which such an advantage exists. We also suggest that as far as imports are concerned, EU participation has caused gross trade creation for imports from the EU countries and gross trade diversion for imports from the Rest of the World. As far as exports are concerned, the results indicate that EU participation has caused only a modest increase in Greek exports to the EU market.     

The long-run relationship between import flows and real exchange-rate volatility: The experience of eight European economies

This paper provides new evidence on the long-run relationship between imports and exchange-rate volatility in eight European countries. The period examined is 1973:2 through 1995:1. Cointegration analyses are based on Johansen's (1992, 1995) approach and robust single-equation methods. In conformity with theoretical considerations, the major results show that exchange-rate volatility has a significant negative effect on the volume of imports of six countries whereas for Greece and Sweden, it is positive and significant. These findings are reasonably robust in terms of measures of exchange-rate volatility, different estimation methods and membership in the European Exchange-rate Mechanism (ERM). Therefore, it can be argued that exchange-rate volatility will have significant effects on the allocation of resources by market participants and that policy-makers can no longer rely on an import demand with only conventional variables for long-term international trade planning, forecasting and policy formulation.     

欧盟合并控制竞争执法中创新损害问题研究

创新是欧盟竞争法中重要的非价格竞争要素之一，在分析企业合并对创新的影响时，欧盟委员会传统上主要从与特定及明确产品市场相关联的潜在竞争角度进行评估。近几年的执法实践表明，欧盟竞争执法范围已经扩展到具有动态性的创新竞争领域，开始关注无形的创新损害，并通过个案审查逐渐在理论基础、制度依据、执法政策、分析框架和方法等方面形成相对体系化的应对方案。欧盟应对创新问题的竞争执法经验为当下我国反垄断法修订以及执法完善提供了良好参考。     

The Role of Trade in Intra‐Industry Productivity Growth—the Case of Old and New European Union Countries

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the role of trade in productivity growth in a sample of 30 sectors in 25 EU countries in the period of rapid East–West integration (1995–2007). Shift‐share analysis is used to show that changes in value added per hour worked in these countries appear to be mainly due to positive developments (rising productivity) within single industries and only to a lower extent result from a shift towards higher productivity activities. Trade is found to be an important positive determinant of intra‐industry productivity growth in European countries. Exports and imports alike can be associated with efficiency gains, but intermediate good exchange and trade with New Member States exert a particularly strong influence on intra‐industry productivity growth in the EU.     

Normative Power Europe and the Moral Economy of Africa–EU Ties: A Conceptual Reorientation of ‘Normative Power’

‘Normative power’ is an increasingly popularised concept in the study of EU external relations in fields including military policy, human rights, and international trade. Defined by Manners, it acknowledges the normative foundations of the European project, examines how Europe acts to (re)shape internationally accepted norms, and makes the claim that Europe ought to influence external partners' conception of ‘normal’ behaviour in pursuit of a just global order. This article, however, argues that a moral economy perspective is central to a critical reorientation of the concept of normative power towards appraisal of discrepancies between nominal EU norms and material EU policy outcomes. Examining Europe's ‘normative power’ in its relations with the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries, it demonstrates how a moral economy of ACP–EU ties has been instituted in negotiation with European ethical norms as to solidarity with ‘the poor’. Nevertheless, the moral economy of ACP–EU ties is seen not to be ‘moral’ in terms of outcomes for vulnerable citizens in ACP countries. Rather the embedding of moral norms concerning pro-poor ‘development’ has rationalised asymmetric economic ties. ‘Normative power’ is understood as the EU's utilisation of moral norms in the public legitimisation and self-rationalisation of geopolitical interest and commercial gain in its relations with external ‘partners’.     

Which sanctions matter? analysis of the EU/russian sanctions of 2014

We use a quasi-natural experiment of reciprocal imposition of trade sanctions by Russia and the EU since 2014. Using UNCTAD/BACI bilateral flows data we take this unique opportunity to analyse both sanctions. In particular, we study the effectiveness of narrow versus broadly defined sanctions, and differences in the effectiveness of sanctions imposed on exports and imports. We show that the Russian sanctions imposed on European and American food imports resulted in about an 8 times stronger decline in trade flows than those imposed by the EU and the US on exports of extraction equipment. These results do not appear to be driven by diversion of trade flows via non-sanctioning countries. Hence the difference in sanctions’ effectiveness can be attributed to the limited retroactivity of Western sanctions, which allowed exemptions for exports made pursuant to contracts made prior to 2014.     

How much do tariffs matter? Evidence from the customs union of Belarus,Kazakhstan and Russia

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the early impact of the formation of the customs union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, and associated changes in import schedules on the structure of imports. Relying on an original data-set of statutory tariffs we find that trade creation effects were significant only in trade between Russia and third countries, but that there was some trade destruction, with a significant negative impact on imports from China to Kazakhstan and Russia, and on imports from the EU to Belarus. However, the magnitude of this effect is relatively small, suggesting that the benefits of the new tariff policy per se are limited at best.     

欧盟纳米技术的研发现状及趋势分析

欧盟是现代工业制造业的发源地,长期保持着世界工业的领先水平。欧委会根据全球高新技术发展态势和欧盟的发展需求及相对竞争优势,确定了欧盟工业可持续发展的六大关键势能技术(KETs)领域。纳米技术作为其六大关键势能技术之一,欧盟已为之制定了具体的优惠政策和行动举措给予重点扶持,以提升欧盟先进制造业的世界竞争力,促进经济增长和扩大就业。通过研究分析欧盟纳米技术工业的发展现状、研发创新、面临的挑战和未来发展趋势,旨在为我国战略性新兴技术产业的可持续发展,提供有益的线索和经验借鉴。     

欧盟先进材料技术的研发现状及发展趋势

欧盟是现代工业制造业的发源地，长期保持着世界工业的领先水平。欧委会根据全球高新技术发展态势和欧盟的发展需求及相对竞争优势，确定了欧盟工业可持续发展的六大关键势能技术（KETs）领域。先进材料技术是欧盟确定的六大关键势能技术之一，欧盟已为之制定了具体的优惠政策和行动举措给予重点扶持，旨在提升欧盟先进制造业的世界竞争力，促进经济增长和扩大就业。综合研究分析了欧盟先进材料技术工业的研发现状、市场需求、面临的挑战和未来发展趋势，意在为我国战略性新兴技术产业的可持续发展提供有益的线索和经验借鉴。     

欧盟工业先进制造系统的研发现状及趋势分析

欧盟是现代工业制造业的发源地,长期保持着世界工业的领先水平。欧委会根据全球高新技术发展态势和欧盟的发展需求及相对竞争优势,确定了欧盟工业可持续发展的六大关键势能技术(KETs)领域。工业先进制造系统是其六大关键势能技术之一,为此,欧盟为之制定了具体的优惠政策和行动举措给予重点扶持,旨在提升欧盟先进制造业的世界竞争力,促进经济增长和扩大就业。通过对欧盟工业先进制造系统的产业发展现状、研发创新、面临的挑战和未来发展趋势进行综合研究分析,意在为我国战略性新兴技术产业的可持续发展提供有益的线索和经验借鉴。     

Trade Effects of European Union Enlargement: an ex post model of trade between Spain and Latin America

Past research on European Union (EU) Enlargement has tended to neglect the effects on trade with non-preferred trading partners. This paper examines the consequences of EU enlargement on trade between Spain and the Latin American countries with which it has traditional economic and cultural ties. An import demand functions model was estimated for the period 1964–93. The country-level results showed that Spanish accession to the EU only had large adverse effects on its imports from Argentina. The results for non-agricultural products indicated a general absence of negative effects on Spanish imports. The aggregate results from the ex post model provide support for some, but not all, of the ex ante predictions of previous studies.     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

Addressing leakage in the EU ETS: Border adjustment or output-based allocation?

The EU ETS has been criticised for threatening the competitiveness of European industry and generating carbon leakage, i.e. increasing foreign greenhouse gas emissions. Two main options have been put forward to tackle these concerns: border adjustments and output-based allocation, i.e. allocation of free allowances in proportion to current production. We compare various configurations of these two options, as well as a scenario with full auctioning and no border adjustment. Against this background, we develop a model of the main sectors covered by the EU ETS: electricity, steel, cement and aluminium. We conclude that the most efficient way to tackle leakage is auctioning with border adjustment, which generally induces a negative leakage (a spillover). This holds even if the border adjustment does not include indirect emissions, if it is based on EU (rather than foreign) specific emissions, or (for some values of the parameters) if it covers only imports. Another relatively efficient policy is to combine auctioning in the electricity sector and output-based allocation in exposed industries, especially if free allowances are given both for direct and indirect emissions, i.e. those generated by the generation of the electricity consumed. Although output-based allocation is generally less effective than border adjustment to tackle leakage, it is more effective to mitigate production losses in the sectors affected by the ETS, which may ease climate policy adoption.     

Converging in divergent ways

This paper focuses on intra‐industry trade (IIT) between Central, Eastern and South‐Eastern European (CESEE) countries and the EU‐15. It assesses the determinants of intra‐industry trade by combining a detailed product‐level (HS‐6) trade‐flow database with country‐level structural, monetary and institutional variables. Estimates are obtained with System‐GMM and dynamic fractional response models. Our results suggest that structural factors driving IIT differ in the region, notably perceptions of corruption and the distance in the stock of physical capital from the EU‐15. On the other hand, nominal variables such as the competitiveness of corporate taxation and the flexibility of exchange rate regimes contribute to the increase in intra‐industry trade in the whole region.