Saving,Lending and Interest Rates: A Critique (of the Model) of Financial Liberalisation in India

The case for financial liberalisation is founded on the neoclassical proposition that savings causes investment and that the interest rate tends to move to equate the two. We find little support for this thesis from the experience of India. Alternatively, we suggest that the Post Keynesian approach that includes the liquidity preferences of banks might be a fruitful way to examine the dynamics of an economy in transition.     

Financial and Institutional Barriers to SME Growth in Albania: Results of an Enterprise Survey

The early transition period witnessed the rapid growth of Albanian SMEs despite the fact that the country was subjected to several severe shocks, especially those associated with the collapse of the pyramid schemes and the war in Kosovo. The growth of small enterprises in agriculture, trade, services, and construction, with microenterprises constituting the bulk of SMEs, has been the engine of growth and contributed to the long term recovery of Albanian economy. However, the growth of SMEs has been hampered by a variety of barriers erected, directly or indirectly, by the state. Fiscal constraints particularly high rate of taxes and contributions, financial constraints and the institutional environment have been some of the major barriers they have had to surmount. These barriers have encouraged many firms to conduct some or all of their activities in the informal sector of the economy. The survey of fifty SMEs established since 1992 highlights the difficulties faced by these enterprises in the environment of early transition. The econometric evidence confirms the role of financial barriers to SME growth, especially when they are combined with the poor institutional environment. The results show that the government has to embark on SME policies designed to disseminate the information on support programmes widely, and to speed up the reform of the financial system, legal framework and law enforcement.     

金融漏损、效率修正与"反哺效应"——中国转轨经济金融低效率与经济高增长研究的新视角

在我国渐进式的转轨经济过程中,在政府强控制金融与高额储蓄条件下,体制内经济体发生金融漏损并由体制外经济顺守,修正了金融初次配置效率,形成了金融低效率与经济高增长并存的结果。理论与实践表明,体制内金融的外向漏损间接支持了体制外经济的成长发展,形成了"反哺效应",构成了一个非正规的经济增长良性循环模式。文章从金融效率与经济增长角度分析了我国转轨过程中的金融漏损、效率修正与经济增长,对我国转轨经济中金融低效率与经济高增长现象进行了分析。文章认为应通过进一步推进国有企业与国有银行产权改革、加快民间金融发展等措施改进与提高我国的金融效率。     

The business cycle in a financially deregulated context: Theory and evidence

This article proposes Minsky's financial instability hypothesis (FIH) as a theoretical underpinning for a three‐regime business cycles model. Further, it is argued that the development of the FIH for open, developing economies (FIH‐ODE) provides a better understanding of the performance of business cycles in these economies, particularly during the last two decades. In support of these claims, a three‐regime autoregressive Markov switching model is estimated from 1980q1 to 2000q4 to Mexico's quarterly real GDP to investigate its business cycle behaviour. The estimated probabilities of the high and medium growth regimes suggest, for example, that after the financial liberalisation programme was fully launched, in the late 1980s, the economy shifted from the regime of medium to high growth (and vice versa) swiftly, reflecting its dependence on capital flows. Furthermore, the estimated parameters indicate that the average length of the business cycle has not changed.     

金融渗透、民营经济发展与金融体系内生化--民营经济发展模式与金融渗透差异的比较分析

本文对我国民营经济发展最为活跃的几个省区--浙江、江苏及广东的金融渗透差异进行比较和分析,并与全国的情况进行对比.分析表明,之前我国正规的金融体系对民营经济的"所有制歧视"导致了内源式发展与内生性金融渗透之间的极为密切的联系,但是近年来的政策转变和民营经济自身资质的提高使得这种现象有了很大的改变,正规金融机构的内生化趋势日益明显.